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新闻分析:台风不甘“落单” 为何“扎堆”来袭?--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-23
新华社北京8月22日电(记者 林晖)七夕佳节即将来临,台风也不甘“落单”,成双成对地在海面上出现。继今年第9号台风“苏拉”和第10号台风“达维”“双台共舞”后,今年第14号台风“天秤”和第15号台风“布拉万”又双双奔向我国沿海。那么,为何今年台风总“扎堆”呢?
Xinhua Beijing on August 22 (xinhua) --(Reporter LinHui)The Tanabata festival is coming,The typhoon is unwilling also“alone”,In pairs appear on the sea。This year the typhoon no. 9“sula”And 10 typhoon no.“davey”“Double table dance”after,Typhoon no. 14 of this year“libra”And the 15th typhoon no.“Blah all”And both toward China's coastal。so,Why this typhoon always“Gathers together”??
中央气象台首席预报员张玲介绍,每年七、八月份都是台风生成的高峰期,其中“双台共舞”的现象并不罕见,西北太平洋几乎每年都会有双台风的情况发生。
The central meteorological station chief forecaster zhang ling is introduced,The seven year、August is the typhoon generation peak,the“Double table dance”The phenomenon is not rare,The Pacific northwest almost every year there are double the typhoon happened。
“台风生成在赤道辐合带或季风槽里,这个辐合带呈东西向排列,有时候会很长,一直从印度洋孟加拉湾持续到太平洋东部。”张玲说,在这么大的范围内,可能同时生成很多个涡旋并发展成台风,一般呈东西向排列。如果当前的天气系统分布形态没有得到改变,不排除后期还有双台风生成的可能。
“The typhoon formation in the intertropical convergence zone or monsoon trough,This convergence was like arrangement,Sometimes a long,Has been from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific east bay of Bengal continue。”Zhang ling said,In such a big range,May also generate a lot of a vortex and developed into a typhoon,The general was like arrangement。If the current weather system distribution form has not been changed,Would not rule out later and double the typhoon may be generated。
中央气象台台风专家高拴柱认为,在台风活跃期,总会有一段时间出现台风“扎堆”的情况。在环境背景场比较稳定的情况下,某一个区域有利于台风的发生,台风生成并移出去以后,由于环境背景场变化比较小,这个区域附近仍然有生成台风的条件。
The central meteorological observatory typhoon experts high tied column think,In the typhoon active phase,There is a period of time in the typhoon“Gathers together”situation。In the environmental background field under the condition of relatively stable,A certain area to the happening of the typhoon,The typhoon to generate and shift after go out,Due to the environmental background field change is small,The area around the still have generated the typhoon conditions。
张玲说,目前“天秤”的强度大于“布拉万”,但“天秤”的强度已经过了峰值,而未来两三天伴随西太平洋副热带高压西进,对“布拉万”强度增强非常有利,后期两个台风的强度可能发生逆转,对我国沿海的影响不容忽视。
Zhang ling said,At present“libra”Strength is greater than“Blah all”,but“libra”The strength of the peak has passed,But the future for two or three days with the western Pacific subtropical high west,to“Blah all”Strength enhancement is very favorable,Later two typhoon strength may be reversed,To our country the influence of coastal nots allow to ignore。
据中央气象台统计,今年以来生成并登陆我国的台风,已经创下了多个纪录:
According to the central meteorological observatory statistics,Since this year to generate and landing China's typhoon,Has more than a record:
——生成个数多。截至今年8月22日,西北太平洋和南海海域共有15个台风(含热带风暴及以上强度)生成,比历史同期12.8个偏多2.2个;
- more than the number of generated。So far this year on August 22,,The northwest Pacific and south China sea sea area there are 15 typhoon(Contain tropical storm and above strength)generation,History than the same period more than 12.8 by 2.2;
——登陆个数多。今年以来共有6个台风在我国登陆,比历史同期(3.9个)偏多2.1个。其中8月以来已有4个台风登陆我国,比常年同期(1.8个)偏多2.2个,且登陆强度均在12级或以上;
- more than the number of landing。Since this year there are six typhoons landed in China,History than the same period(3.9)Partial many 2.1。Which has since August 4 typhoon in China,Than the same period perennial(1.8)Partial many 2.2,And landing strength are in 12 level or above;
——登陆期集中。7月24日至今的近一个月内,共有5个台风登陆我国。当前在西北太平洋上活动的两个台风“天秤”和“布拉万”,也有可能登陆或擦过我国沿海;
- landing phase concentration。On July 24th, nearly a month so far,There are five typhoon in China。The current in the northwest Pacific Ocean activities of the two typhoon“libra”and“Blah all”,May also be landing or grazed along the coast of China;
——登陆范围广。台风“青睐”的登陆地点北到南,江苏、浙江、福建、台湾、广东等沿海地区“一个不落”。
- in a wide range。The typhoon“favour”The landing site north to south,jiangsu、zhejiang、fujian、Taiwan、Guangdong coastal areas“A fall”。
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