“稳增长”政策下，如何防范房地产借机涨价？ “Steady growth”policy，How to prevent real estate prices looking？
－－解读年中房地产市场 -reading years the real estate market

    新华社海口７月１８日电（记者 宋振远、王晖余）最近北京“地王”再现，深圳等地零星重现“排队购房”现象，上海、杭州、海南等多地楼市成交量有所放大－－借助楼市新“变数”，房价即将“反转”之声渐起。

    The xinhua news agency on July 18, haikou（Reporter SongZhenYuan、WangHuiYu）Beijing recently“royal”reproduce，Shenzhen sporadic again“Queuing buy”phenomenon，Shanghai、hangzhou、Hainan etc more property market turnover has magnified-with new property market“variables”，House prices will“reversal”Gradually up the sound of。

    如今房价会不会“触底反转”？新的形势下楼市走势如何？市场博弈双方谁能胜算？有关楼市的预期牵动人心。

    Now house prices will not“A touch on the reverse”？The new situation of the property market trend？Market players who can win？The property market expectations affect the heart。

    

    楼市风云突变，房价果真“起底”？ Fast-changing market，If house prices“Up the”？

    进入６月份，上海、广西与广东等地相继出现高溢价地块成交现象。７月１０日，北京万柳地区新“地王”在一片喧哗声中诞生。这些“变化”与此前土地成交冷清的状况形成对比。

    Into June，Shanghai、Guangxi and guangdong arise high premium plot clinch a deal the phenomenon。July 10,，Beijing wanliu new areas“royal”In a noise was born in。these“change”And after the condition of the land deal cold and cheerless form contrast。

    一些地方土地成交回暖的背后，是房价和交易量有所放大。得益于刺激刚性需求的楼市“微调”，加之开发商“以价跑量”，最近一些城市商品住宅交易呈现增长态势。

    Some local land deal warms up in the back，House prices and trading volume is to enlarge。Thanks to stimulate demand market of rigid“fine-tuning”，Together with developers“The price is to run”，Recently some urban commodity residential house present trade growth situation。

    中国指数研究院数据显示，６月份以来，部分一二线城市新建商品住宅成交量创下新高。２０个重点城市上半年成交量同比增长１７％，其中６月成交量与２０１０年调控以来最高点持平，与２００９年高点仅相差１５％。

    China index academy data shows，Since June，Part of a second city new commodity residential volume set a new high。20 major cities volume in the first half year-on-year growth of 17%，Six months with 2010 years since the volume control highest rate，2009 high and is under 15%。

    楼市“回暖”引发多方博弈。市场上有人热炒房价即将“反转”，网上惊现“新一轮房价快速上涨正拉开帷幕”，部分消费者甚至“恐慌性入市”，未来楼市调控面临复杂形势。

    Property market“warmed”Cause many game。The market is folly, someone house prices“reversal”，Appeared online“A new round of house prices are rising fast, begin”，Part of the consumers even“Panic entry”，The future market regulation facing complex situation。

    在近日召开的海南博鳌２１世纪房地产论坛上，全国工商联房地产商会会长聂梅生等回应说，尽管成交量有所回升，但楼市呈现的还是筑底态势。

    In held recently hainan boao 21 century real estate BBS，The national association of industry and commerce of such as real estate chamber of commerce NieMeiSheng response said，Although volume have rebounded，But the home of the present or build momentum。

    专家认为，一方面，库存等大部分房地产指标依然低迷；另一方面，限购、限贷等调控政策基本面未改，这决定了房价短期“反转”可能性不大。

    Experts say，On the one hand，Inventory and most real estate index downturn continues；On the other hand，限购、Credit limit and not change control policy fundamentals，To determine the short-term house prices“reversal”unlikely。

    记者在海口、三亚楼市采访发现，开发商依然选择打折促销、以价换量，加速减少库存。“楼市回暖只是局部的、阶段性的，绝大部分是刚性需求的释放，短期内房价不可能出现报复性反弹。”新世界中国地产（海口）有限公司营销副总监莫添瑜说。

    Reporter in haikou、Sanya property market that interview，Developers still choose discounts and promotions、To change the price of，Accelerate reduce inventory。“Property market warms up just local、Phases of，Most is a basic need the release，The short term rates are possible retaliatory rebound。”New world China real estate（haikou）Limited company marketing vice director don't add yu said。

    国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年，全国商品房待售面积３１４０８万平方米，增长３３．１％。

    The national bureau of statistics data shows，In the first half of this year，The national commodity house for sale area of 314.08 million square meters，33.1% increase。

    “巨大的库存和消化库存的较慢节奏，意味着今明两年房地产行业仍将比较低迷。”北京师范大学金融研究中心主任钟伟说。

    “Huge inventory and digestive inventory slower pace，Means that in the two years real estate industry will still low。”Beijing normal university financial research center director ZhongWei said。

    国土资源部有关部门负责人近日表示，近期个别城市再现高价地，主要是结构性和区域性市场波动，并未改变市场整体偏冷的格局。

    The director of the department of land and resources said recently，The recent individual cities representation to higher prices，Main is structural and regional market fluctuations，Did not change the pattern of the overall market slants cold。

    

    楼市借机“松绑”，谁是背后推手？ Property market taking“easing”，Who is behind push？

    记者追踪发现，凭借宏观政策由“控物价”转向“稳增长”之机，一些地方政府流露出加快为楼市“松绑”的迹象，试图尽快扭转“土地财政”收入下滑现状。

    Reporter tracking found，With the macro policy“Control prices”Turned to“Steady growth”Machine of，Some local governments reveals the speed up the housing market“easing”Signs of，Trying to reverse as soon as possible“Land financial”Revenue declined status。

    近期，一些“限购”城市的高档房和豪宅销售有所活跃，“多数应属于‘限购’对象。有些地方监管部门对此睁一只眼、闭一只眼。”上海易居房地产研究院副院长杨红旭如是说。

    recent，some“限购”City of high-grade room and a person of extraordinary powers curtilage sales have active，“Most should belong to the‘限购’object。Some local regulators turned a blind eye to it、Close one eye。”Shanghai enjoysmart real estate, vice President of the institute YangGongXu said。

    一些被曝光的案例显示，部分城市对涉及违规骗取购房资格的开发商、中介和个人，实际上采取默许态度。

    Some cases of exposure display，Parts of the city to defraud the irregular purchase qualified developers、Intermediary and personal，In fact take tacitly attitude。

    对于这种“复杂局面”，国土资源部有关机构近日发布第二季度全国主要城市地价监测报告称，“在宏观政策调整与坚持房地产调控不放松，地方政府出台微调政策情况下，市场预期出现一些变化，房地产市场再次进入敏感阶段。”

    For this kind of“Complicated situation”，The ministry of land and resources relevant institutions in the second quarter) recently released the major urban land price monitoring report said，“In the macro policy adjustments and adhere to the real estate regulation not to relax，The local government issued fine-tuning policy circumstances，The market is expected to appear some changes，The real estate market into sensitive stage again。”

    试图改变房价预期的另一个推手是开发商。记者采访发现，一些开发商借一些地方政府“暗助”，开始打起楼盘涨价的主意，积极释放“房价已见底、调控将放松”的信号，诱导购房者出手。

    Prices are expected to try to change another push is developers。Reporters found，Some developers to borrow some local governments“Dark help”，Start up the idea of building prices，Positive release“House prices already see bottom、Regulation will relax”signal，Induction homebuyers make moves。

    业内人士透露，部分开发商借市场阶段性“回暖”之机，甚至自导自演“楼市热销、供需两旺”的假象，为炒作涨价铺路。

    Industry insiders said，Some developers by market phases“warmed”Machine of，Even the self-guided act“Property market sell like hot cakes、Supply and demand two popular”Illusions of the，Prices for paving the hype。

    同策咨询研究中心总监张宏伟认为，部分房企年初下调全年指标导致年中销售业绩“达标”；还有的房企“粉饰”中报，报喜不报忧，炒作“回暖”现象，都是为了形成“买涨不买跌”的市场预期。

    Strategy consulting research center director with d think，Part of the room early enterprises throughout the year to year cut index sales performance“standard”；There's room enterprises“whitewash”Center daily news，Report good news not suffer，hype“warmed”phenomenon，Are all in the form“Buy or not to buy up fall”Market expectations。

    

    房价再度反弹，市民能否承受？ House prices rebound again，Citizens can withstand？

    “如果房价再来一轮大涨，后果会很严重。”海口市民李晓岩说，“不能中断房地产调控。那样房价必然会报复性反弹，购房自住的市民根本无法承受。”

    “If house prices surged to another round，The consequences will be very serious。”Haikou people LiXiaoYan said，“Real estate regulation can be interrupted。That house prices will rebound reprisal，Since the citizens live that buy a house can not take it。”

    针对消费者的疑虑，住建部等四部委最近频频释放楼市调控不动摇的信号，有关部门领导也一再强调继续实施严格的房地产调控政策。

    In the light of consumer concerns，Live JianBu four ministries has been release property market regulation unwavering signal，Leaders of relevant departments also stressed that continue to implement strict control policy of real estate。

    “在‘稳增长’政策下，楼市调控的变化只是更加重视刚性需求，抑制投机性需求的政策没有改变。”顾云昌等专家说。

    “in‘Steady growth’policy，The change of market regulation just pay more attention of the rigid demand，Restrain the speculative demand policy has not changed。”GuYunChang experts said。

    有关专家表示，在保增长的基调下要捍卫调控成果，必须加快建立房地产市场调控的长效机制。例如房产税改革应该加快，城市住房信息联网工作也应该加快。

    Experts said，In the tone of the growth under control results to defend，We must establish the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation。Such as housing property tax reform should speed up，City housing information networking work should also speed up。

    另一个问题是，城市保障房建设如何继续保持增量？以及分配方案有待于进一步公开透明。

    Another problem is，City room to continue to maintain security construction incremental？And distribution plan needs to be further open and transparent。

    国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运认为，以廉租房、公租房为代表的保障房建设决不能放松，而且应明确将其与城镇化的两大主力人群农民工和大学毕业生挂钩，防止分配不公。

    The national bureau of statistics spokesman filled to transport think，To low-cost housing、Male rent as a representative of security room construction can never relax，And should be clear with the two main population urbanization and migrant workers university graduates hooks，Prevent unfair distribution。

    “当前楼市调控的重点仍是开发商和购房者，对土地、银行等其他利益主体的调控力度不够。”聂梅生认为，房价涉及多元主体，今后应配套推进土地、金融、财税、产业结构、收入分配等一系列制度改革，推动整体经济和房地产行业良性发展。

    “The current housing market regulation of the key is still developers and consumers，To the land、Banks and other interests of the main body of the control power is not enough。”NieMeiSheng think，House prices involving multiple subject，In future, we must complementarily promote land、financial、Finance and tax、Industrial structure、A series of income distribution system reform，To promote the overall economy and real estate industry development。