楼市观察

Property market observation

　　持续从紧房地产调控必须坚持，因为房地产调控不仅关乎政策公信力、更关乎广大民生诉求、甚至还关乎我国经济“调结构、促转型”之根本。

Continued tight regulation must adhere to real estate，Because real estate control not only related to policy credibility、More about the appeal to the people's livelihood、Even for our country economy“Adjustable structure、Promote transformation”Is the fundamental。

　　近日，在土地交易市场又出现了高价拍地的苗头。尽管地方政府已经采取了一些措施如采取价格上限等措施防止出现高价地块，但似乎并未抑制开发商的拿地热情，甚至出现了新的地价纪录。

recently，In land market and appeared to take the first hint of high prices。Although the local government has taken some steps such as take measures such as price caps to prevent high plot，But do not seem to restrain developers to take the enthusiasm，Even the appearance of new land price record。

　　事实上，就在1个月前，广州亦出现首块超过3万元/平方米的高地价，由恒大地产拍得。而在不久之前，多个城市的土地市场还处于无人问津的局面，一些城市甚至在较长时间内出现土地零成交的现象。

In fact，In a month ago，There are also the first piece of guangzhou more than 30000 yuan/square metre high price，By evergrande real estate on。And not long ago，More of the city land market is still in a deserted situation，Some cities and even in a long period, the phenomenon of land zero appear clinch a deal。

　　在本轮房地产调控尚未明确松绑、且温家宝总理几天前刚刚强调“决不能让房价反弹”之下，为何高价拍地会再次出现？

In the current round of real estate regulation has not been clearly relax、And just days before the prime minister wen jiabao stressed“Never let the house prices rebound”under，Why high price to take will again be？

　　当然，高价地块所在区位、周边房价、以及周边配套设施也对该地块的成交价起到一些决定性的因素。

Of course，High prices in plot location、Surrounding house prices、And peripheral facilities for this plot clinch a deal valence also played a decisive factor。

　　但是，这显然不是高价拍地出现的根本原因，因为参考周边仍然高企的房价，其本身即说明本轮房地产调控的功效不彰。

but，This is not the high price to take the root cause of appear，Because the reference surrounding remained high house prices，Its itself is the effect of this round of real estate that control inefficient。

　　此番高价拍地之所以继2010年后呈集体涌现之势，究其根源则在于，开发商从诸多政策层面，得出房地产调控难以为继的判断在财政收支严重失衡之下，今年以来，地方政府对调控政策层出不穷的私自松绑，中央政府对绝大多数已经选择默认；在我国经济急速下行之下，为力挽经济衰退于狂澜，货币政策一再宽松，表面的“稳健”已变成实质的“宽松”；在银行存款利息呈持续（实际）负利息、股市持续震荡下行、且内外需求短期难振之下，社会资本的有效出口已大幅收窄，极可能再度回流至房地产市场。

The high price to take the comments after 2010 years later a collective emerging of power，The reason lies in，Developers from many policy aspect，Real estate regulation that difficult judgment in the financial revenue and expenditure under serious imbalance，Since this year，Local government to control policy emerge in endlessly individual privately，The central government for most have chosen by default；In the country's economic rapid down under，Do nothing in a recession in overwhelming，Monetary policy loose again and again，surface“steady”Has become the essence“loose”；In the bank deposit interest was a consistent（actual）Negative interest、The stock market continued shock to the downside、Internal and external demand and short-term difficult under vibration，Effective export of social capital has greatly narrow，A return to the real estate market may again。

　　在上述诸多因素的集合之下，必然令开发商心生本轮房地产调控将重蹈覆辙、房地产市场必将回暖的预期，而在这种预期之下，又必然会令开发商产生“逆周期”拿地、甚至不惜巨资高价拍地的行为。

In the above factors under the set，Will make this round of real estate developers mind control will repeat it、The real estate market will thaw expected，While in this under the expected，And will keep the developers, produce“Inverse cycle”Give land、Even at high price to take the behavior of a huge sum of money。

　　持续从紧房地产调控必须坚持，因为房地产调控不仅关乎政策公信力、更关乎广大民生诉求、甚至还关乎我国经济“调结构、促转型”之根本。

Continued tight regulation must adhere to real estate，Because real estate control not only related to policy credibility、More about the appeal to the people's livelihood、Even for our country economy“Adjustable structure、Promote transformation”Is the fundamental。

　　而欲真正达成房地产调控之初衷，则我们不仅需要强化限购、限贷、试行房地税等手段，给屡调不降的房价“下猛药”，从而将相关利益群体的奢望化为泡影；我们还需要通过扩容保障房、相对加大土地供应量，给持续高企的房价“下泄药”，从而在满足住房刚性需求的基础上，将房价调整至相对合理的水平。

To achieve real estate regulation of the original intention，Are we not only need to strengthen 限购、Limit credit、Try out room means such as land tax，Don't drop the repeatedly to house prices“Potent medicine under”，Thus the related interest groups hope of mean nothing；We also need through the expansion security room、Relative increase land supply，For continuous high housing prices“Or medicine”，To meet the demand of the housing in rigid basis，Will house prices to adjust relatively reasonable level。

　　我们更需要通过抑制行政主导性投资减少地方政府的负债发展冲动、以及推进税制改革改变地方与中央之间“事权、财权”过于失衡的局面，给房地产调控困境“下解药”，从而为房地产调控消除来自地方政府的巨大阻力。

We need more through the restrain the administration leading investment reduce local government debt development impulse、And boost tax reform change between the local and central“powers、property”Too unbalanced situation，To real estate control trouble“Medicine for the”，Thus for real estate from the local government regulation to eliminate the huge resistance。

　　在当下高价拍地频现之下，决策层不应有基于任何理由的信心动摇，而应持续从紧房地产调控政策，真正将本轮房地产调控落到实处、取得实效。与此同时，扩容保障房、相对加大土地供应量亦应齐抓并举，以此满足住房刚性需求。而深化税制改革则更应列入具体日程，以此缓解房地产调控对地方政府造成的财政压力。

In the present high prices to take frequent under，Executives should not have any reason based on faith be moved，And should continue tight control policy of real estate，Real estate will this regulation on feet、To obtain actual effect。At the same time，Expansion security room、Relative increase land supply should also be neat catch simultaneously，To meet housing rigid demand。And deepen the reform of the tax system is more should be included in the specific agenda，To ease the real estate to local government regulation by financial pressure。

　　杨国英（财经评论人）

YangGuoYing（Financial commentators who）