“狡猾”且“凶险”　“余勇”成“强兵” “cunning”and“dangerous”“Stowe r a.experimental study into mixing”into“Strong soldier”
——强台风“海葵”的前世今生 -strong typhoon“Sea anemone”Past this life

    新华社杭州８月７日电（记者屈凌燕、冯源）正当华东沿海庆幸“苏拉”“达维”双台风远去的时候，“苏拉”留在西太平洋的余部却余勇尚在，向浙江沿海发起了远程奔袭，这就是将于７日后半夜或８日上午在浙江沿海登陆的“海葵”。

    The xinhua news agency on August 7, hangzhou（Reporter QuLingYan、FengYuan）While the east China coastal rejoice“sura”“davey”Double typhoon far away，“sura”Stay in west of the Pacific Ocean, but still in some stowe r a.experimental study into mixing，To zhejiang coastal launched remote strikes，This is in 7 days or in the middle of the 8 th morning in zhejiang coastal landing“Sea anemone”。

    天时地利 “余勇”成“强兵”     Climate favourable geographical position “Stowe r a.experimental study into mixing”into“Strong soldier”

    从“余勇”成“强兵”，“海葵”得到了天时地利的支持。

    from“Stowe r a.experimental study into mixing”into“Strong soldier”，“Sea anemone”Got the support of the climate favourable geographical position。

    首先引导气流变弱，移速减慢积聚能量。“海葵”８月３日在西北太平洋生成以后的３６小时内移动迅速，移速一度曾达到２５～３０公里／小时。４日２０时开始“海葵”移速明显放缓，仅有１０～１５公里／小时，且５日夜里在东海南部发生回旋打转现象。即使在登陆前夜，海葵仍保持每小时１０公里左右的速度继续向西北偏西方向移动。

    First guide the airflow become weak，Move speed slow down the energy accumulation。“Sea anemone”August 3,, in the Pacific northwest generation of 36 hours after moving quickly，Move speed once to 25 to 30 km/hour。4, start when the 20“Sea anemone”Move speed slowed sharply，Only 10 ~ 15 km/hour，And five in the day and night in the east China sea is whirly struck southern phenomenon。Even in landing eve，The sea anemone is still keep 10 kilometers an hour or so to continue to speed WNW direction。

    海温支持，强度不断加强。“海葵”在其生成后的三天内强度变化不大，一直维持在热带风暴到强热带风暴的量级。不过在行进的过程中，由于经过的海面温度较高，环境场适宜，“海葵”强度得以不断加强。６日１７时它已经加强为台风，７日迎来爆发式增强，２４小时增长１５米／秒，与超强台风只差３米／秒。

    SST support，Intensity continuously strengthen。“Sea anemone”After its formation three days after the big changes in strength，Has remained at a tropical storm to strong tropical storm magnitude。But in the process of marching，Because the higher temperature of the sea，A suitable environment，“Sea anemone”To strengthen the intensity。6, when it has been for 17 to strengthen the typhoon，7 have BaoFaShi enhanced，24 hours growth 15 m/s，Super typhoon with a difference of 3 m/s。

    最后，西南季风补充水汽。一直以来和西南季风结合不佳的“海葵”有些南北不协调，但是原本结构有些不完善的“海葵”，在６日居然得到西南季风的结合，形成各象限完整的紧凑层叠结构。

    finally，The southwest monsoon added water vapor。Has been and the southwest monsoon combined with the poor“Sea anemone”Some north and south not harmonious，But the original structure some not perfect“Sea anemone”，In the 6 th incredibly get the southwest monsoon combination，Form the complete compact structure of cascade quadrant。

    八月台风多凶险     August typhoon more dangerous

    ７日１８时，中国气象局局长郑国光签发重大气象灾害一级应急响应命令。这也是５年来气象局首次启动一级应急响应。

    7 and when，Issued by the China meteorological administration chief said major meteorological disaster emergency response command level。This is five years meteorological administration first start level 1 emergency response。

    距离台风登陆已经不到１０个小时，浙江沿海各地已经是风大雨急。浙江沿海南至温岭，北至宁波一度都对飘浮不定的“海葵”做出在本地登陆的准备。“这个台风太狡猾了，不到最后，不知道具体在哪里登陆。”台州一位干部说。

    Distance typhoons landed has less than 10 hours，Zhejiang the coastal areas is the wind in the heavy rain。Zhejiang coastal south to wen，North to ningbo once all of the floating on“Sea anemone”Make the local land in preparation。“The typhoon is too cunning，Less than the last，Don't know where is it exactly landed。”Taizhou a cadre said。

    台州、宁波不少地方的道旁树纷纷倒地。大陈岛已经测出了１６级的风速，而且导致全岛大断电。抗台经验丰富的台州渔民告诉记者，这次台风会很厉害，“因为这次海浪是从海底涌上来的，表明‘海葵’在外海雨非常大。”

    taizhou、Ningbo many places in the way of the tree down。The big island has Chen measured level 16 wind speeds，And lead to the big blackouts。Resistance to Taiwan experienced taizhou fishermen told reporters，The typhoon will be very much，“Because the waves of the sea from casting up，Show that‘Sea anemone’Rain in off the coast is very big。”

    果然，气象部门预测“海葵”和２００４年８月１２日登陆浙江温岭石塘的“云娜”相仿。那场台风曾造成浙江１７９人死亡，９人失踪，仅在浙江省就造成了１８１．２８亿元的直接经济损失。

    Indeed as expected，Meteorological department predicts“Sea anemone”And on aug 12, 2004 landing zhejiang possessing the changshan“Cloud nuo”similar。The typhoon had caused 179 deaths in zhejiang，9 people missing，Only in zhejiang province has caused $18.128 billion of direct economic losses。

    近十多年来，重创浙江的“云娜”“桑美”都是在８月份登陆的。人们的记忆中，８月初登陆的台风历来是浙江的噩梦。

    Near ten years，Hit of zhejiang“Cloud nuo”“SangMei”Are the landing in August。The memory of people，The typhoon has landed in early August is zhejiang nightmare。

    “海葵”大考 多年空防警惕一朝懈怠  “Sea anemone”For many years the final exam air defences alert negligent

    大型台风“海葵”即将在７日后半夜到８日上午最大可能在三门湾一带沿海登陆，并在杭州湾、长江口滞留。对于连续５年没有正面抗台的浙江甚至长三角来说，“海葵”将是一场大考。

    Large typhoon“Sea anemone”Is 7 days in the midnight to 8 days morning the maximum possible in three bay area coastal landing，And in the hangzhou bay、Yangtze estuary stranded。For five consecutive years of no positive sets in the Yangtze river delta is zhejiang even，“Sea anemone”Will be a big test。

    浙江省气象专家分析，“海葵”云系覆盖范围达１５万平方公里，由于引导气流弱，移动速度缓慢，登陆后将导致风雨影响时间长、范围广而成灾，长三角即将面临严重的台风威胁。

    Zhejiang weather expert analysis，“Sea anemone”Structures coverage of 15 square kilometers，Due to the weak guide airflow，Slow movement speed，After landing will lead to influence and time long、Range and a destroyer，Yangtze river delta will face severe typhoon threat。

    “海葵”路径纵深长三角经济中心。根据最新预测的路径，如果其在三门湾一带附近登陆，由于台州北部、绍兴、杭州一线相对来说地势平坦，登陆三门湾或以北的台风往往一路畅行无阻，将造成更加重大影响。而上述地区正是浙江省人口较稠密、经济要素较集中的区域。中央气象台６日的天气预报显示，从７日起连续三天华东尤其是浙北、上海将持续出现大于２５０毫米的暴雨。

    “Sea anemone”The depth of the path the Yangtze river delta economic center。According to the latest forecast path，If the three bay area landed near，Due to the northern taizhou、shaoxing、Hangzhou a relatively flat line，On three bay or the typhoon often north of high-speed motorcade，Will cause more important。The area is a dense population of zhejiang province、Economic factors relatively concentrated area。The central weather 6, the weather forecast shows，From the day of area of east China especially for three consecutive days、Shanghai will continue to appear more than 250 mm of rain。

    “由于与前期台风‘苏拉’带来的强降水叠加，浙江等地需特别防范山洪、地质灾害等衍生灾害，同时杭州湾、长江口等湾区需特别注意防范风暴增水，防止海水涌入城市。”中央气象台台风专家高拴柱特别提醒。

    “Because of the early and typhoon‘sura’Bring rain stack，Zhejiang etc special precautions to flash floods、Geological disasters derivative disasters，At the same time the hangzhou bay、Bay area of the Yangtze estuary and special attention should guard against the storm water，To prevent water into the city。”The central weather typhoon experts to high column special remind。