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迅猛又密集 频发逞强威——解析2012年台风特点--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-24

    新华社北京8月23日电(记者林晖)每年夏天都是台风生成登陆的“旺季”,今年也不例外。截至8月23日,今年已经有6个台风登陆我国,目前又有两个台风“天秤”和“布拉万”正向我国沿海靠近。回顾今年以来登陆我国的台风,呈现出明显的频发多发、密集登陆、威力强大等特点。

    Xinhua Beijing on August 23 report(Reporter LinHui)Every summer is the typhoon formation and landing“season”,This year will be no exception。As of August 23,,This year has six typhoon in China,At present, there are two typhoon“libra”and“Blah all”Forward China's coastal near。Review in China since this year the typhoon,Presents the obvious and frequent multiple、Intensive land、Powerful etc。

    中央气象台专家刘杰指出,今年台风生成个数偏多。截至8月22日,西北太平洋和南海海域共有15个台风(含热带风暴及以上强度)生成,比历史同期(12.8个)偏多2.2个。同时,台风生成纬度也高,“卡努”“达维”“海葵”“鸿雁”等都生成在纬度较高的海域(北纬23度以北),登陆台风对大陆北部沿海的影响较常年明显偏多。

    The central meteorological observatory expert pointed out that liu jie,This year the typhoon generation number more than offset。As of August 22,,The northwest Pacific and south China sea sea area there are 15 typhoon(Contain tropical storm and above strength)generation,History than the same period(12.8)Partial many 2.2。At the same time,The typhoon generation latitude is high,“kanu”“davey”“Sea anemone”“Swan goose”And so on all generation in high latitude of the sea(North of 23 degrees north latitude),Landing typhoon mainland to the northern coastal is more significant than the perennial distinctness much。

    今年台风不仅生成个数多,登陆比例也较高。截至目前,今年已有6个台风在我国登陆,比历史同期(3.9个)偏多2.1个。在登陆比例方面,历史同期台风登陆比例为26%,今年同期为40%。如果“天秤”和“布拉万”也登陆的话,登陆比例将高达53%。

    Typhoon this year not only generate more than the number,Landing proportion also higher。So far,This year has six typhoons landed in China,History than the same period(3.9)Partial many 2.1。In the landing in proportion,The same period historical typhoon landing a ratio of 26%,Compared to 40% this year。if“libra”and“Blah all”Also landing words,In proportion as high as 53%。

    短时间内密集登陆是今年台风的一大特点。7月24日至今的一个月内,共有“韦森特”“苏拉”“达维”“海葵”“启德”5个台风登陆我国,而“天秤”也有可能在23日晚上到24日白天登陆台湾东南部。气象专家表示,在如此短的时间内,有5到6个12级以上台风接连登陆我国,这在历史上非常少见。

    A short time intensive landing typhoon this year is one of the characteristics。July 24, a month so far,were“vicente”“sula”“davey”“Sea anemone”“Kai tak”5 a typhoon in China,and“libra”There could also be possibilities in 23 to 24, in the evening the day in southeastern Taiwan。Meteorological experts say,In such a short time,Five to six 12 above for typhoon in China,This is very rare in history。

    密集登陆的台风个个“势大力沉”,带来的风雨影响十分严重。今年6个登陆台风中,有5个登陆风力达到或超过12级。其中,“苏拉”和“海葵”以14级的强台风强度登陆,“达维”是1949年以来登陆长江以北沿海的最强台风。这些台风影响范围十分广泛,给华东、东北及华南的大部地区带来强降水,局部地区降水量突破历史极值。

    Intensive landing typhoon each“Potential to sink”,The storm of the brings serious influence。This year in six landing typhoon,There are five landing wind reach or exceed 12。the,“sula”and“Sea anemone”To level 14 powerful typhoon landing strength,“davey”Since 1949 the north of Yangtze river on the coast of the strongest typhoon。The typhoon influence range,To east China、The northeast and large areas of south China bring strong precipitation,Local precipitation breakthrough history extremum。

    此外,今年台风还不断上演“双台共舞”现象。继今年第9号台风“苏拉”和第10号台风“达维”之后,今年第14号台风“天秤”和今年第15号台风“布拉万”又双双奔向我国沿海。台风“成双成对”出现是否是一个正常现象呢?

    In addition,This typhoon is perpetually“Double table dance”phenomenon。This year the typhoon no. 9“sula”And 10 typhoon no.“davey”after,Typhoon no. 14 of this year“libra”And this year 15th typhoon“Blah all”And both toward China's coastal。The typhoon“In pairs”There is a normal phenomenon??

    中央气象台首席预报员张玲介绍,台风生成在赤道辐合带或季风槽里,这个呈东西向排列的辐合带范围很大,可能同时生成很多个涡旋并发展成台风。实际上“双台共舞”的现象并不罕见,有时候也可能出现三台风同时“兴风作浪”,比如2006年8月,西北太平洋连续生成“玛利亚”“桑美”和“宝霞”三个热带风暴。

    The central meteorological station chief forecaster zhang ling is introduced,The typhoon formation in the intertropical convergence zone or monsoon trough,This was like permutation convergence over a wide area,May also generate a lot of a vortex and developed into a typhoon。In fact“Double table dance”The phenomenon is not rare,Sometimes may also appear three typhoon at the same time“Make waves”,For example in August 2006,The Pacific northwest continuous generation“maria”“SangMei”and“Of bopha”The three tropical storm。

    眼下已经是八月下旬,但台风并不会就此停住脚步。张玲介绍,每年9、10月份也可能有台风生成并登陆。从历史同期来看,9月份平均生成热带气旋5.03个,平均登陆1.75个。到了10月份,尽管热带气旋数量大大减少,但仍然平均生成3.92个,平均登陆0.52个。因此,未来不排除还有台风登陆我国的可能性。

    At the moment is already late August,But the typhoon will not stop this。Zhang ling is introduced,Annual in September、In October, may also be a typhoon formation and landing。During the same period from history to see,September 5.03 average formation of tropical cyclones,On average 1.75。In October,Although the tropical cyclone quantity greatly reduced,But still mean generation 3.92,On average 0.52。therefore,The future will not rule out the possibility of landing typhoon and in our country。

    目前,今年第14号台风“天秤”离东南沿海越来越近。中央气象台预计,“天秤”将于23日后半夜到24日白天登陆或擦过台湾东南部一带沿海。受此影响,巴士海峡、巴林塘海峡、台湾海峡、东海南部以及福建中南部沿海、台湾东部沿海将有6至8级大风,台湾中东部有暴雨到大暴雨。与此同时,“布拉万”的中心正向西偏北方向移动,未来2天对我国近海海域暂无影响,但是强度有逐渐增强的趋势,未来发展动向正被密切关注。

    At present,Typhoon no. 14 of this year“libra”From the southeast coastal more and more nearly。The central meteorological station is expected,“libra”In future 23 to 24, in the middle of the day landing or grazed Taiwan southeast coastal area。Affected by this,Bashi channel、BaLinTang strait、The Taiwan strait、The southern and southern fujian coastal、Taiwan's eastern coastal will have 6 to 8 class gale,East-central Taiwan have heavy rain to the torrential rain。meanwhile,“Blah all”The centre forward west by north direction,The next two days in coastal waters to no effect,But strength has been gradually enhanced trend,The future development trend are paying close attention to。



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