新华社北京７月１４日电（记者 雷敏）国家统计局日前发布的数据显示，受城乡居民收入不断提高拉动，消费成为今年上半年中国经济增长中相对稳定的力量。但不容忽视的是，随着宏观调控政策的深入实施，汽车、住房等传统消费热点持续降温，增长放缓。今后，谁将成为引领消费的新热点呢？

    Beijing, July 14 dec（Reporter LeiMin）The national bureau of statistics has released figures show，By the income of urban and rural residents continuously improve pulling，Consumption has become China's economic growth in the first half of this year in the power of the relatively stable。But is not allow to ignore，Along with the macroeconomic regulation and control policy in-depth implementation，car、Housing such traditional consumption hotspot for cooling，Growth slowed。In the future，Who will be the lead the new hot consumption？

   

    消费成经济增长“稳定器”  Consumption into economic growth“stabilizer”

    今年以来，城乡居民收入增速跑赢ＧＤＰ增速，为消费增长奠定了基础。

    Since this year，The income of urban and rural residents growth run win's GDP growth，Lay the foundation for consumption growth。

    国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年我国城镇居民人均可支配收入实际增长９．７％，比去年同期加快２．１个百分点；农村居民人均现金收入实际增长１２．４％，快于城镇居民收入增速。

    The national bureau of statistics data shows，In the first half of this year China urban per capita disposable income grew by 9.7% in real terms，Speed up 2.1% more than the same period last year；Rural per capita cash income grew by 12.4% in real terms，Faster than urban residents income growth。

    今年消费虽然名义增速下降，实际增速却基本保持稳定。扣除价格因素，今年上半年，我国社会消费品零售总额实际增长１１．２％，与去年同期基本持平。

    Although growth this year consumption name down，The actual growth but basic remain stable。Deduct price factors，In the first half of this year，Total retail sales in China grew by 11.2% in real terms，With the same period last year flat。

    从市场分布来看，农村消费增速超过城市，成为上半年消费的一大亮点。上半年，我国乡村消费品零售额增长１４．５％，比城镇消费品零售额增速快０．２个百分点。

    From market distribution and see，The rural consumption growth over the city，Become a highlight of consumption in the first half。In the first half，Our country rural consumer retail sales growth of 14.5%，Urban retail sales of consumer goods faster than 0.2%。

    中国人民银行近期发布的报告显示，与上季比，二季度居民消费意愿有所增强，而投资意愿有所降低。

    The people's bank of China, recently released report shows，Than last season and，In the second quarter of consumer intend to improved，But investment will decrease。

    商务部预计，全年社会消费品零售总额同比增速会在１４％以上。

    The Commerce Department estimated，Annual society total retail sales of consumer goods in year-on-year growth will be more than 14%。

    “近期出台的节能产品补贴政策，对消费有刺激作用，消费有望成为今年拉动经济增长的第一引擎。”亚洲开发银行经济学家庄健判断。

    “Recently on the introduction of the energy saving products subsidies，A stimulating effect on consumer spending，Consumption is expected to become drive economic growth this year the first engine。”The Asian development bank economists ZhuangJian judgment。

    

    住、行消费有点“冷” live、Line a little consumption“cold”

    尽管消费仍保持平稳增长，但今年以来，随着刺激政策的退出和宏观调控的进一步深入，汽车、住房等支柱型消费由前几年的爆发式增长进入低迷期。

    Although spending remains steady growth，But since this year，Along with the stimulus exit and macro regulation of further，car、Housing and pillar the consumption in the first few years of the BaoFaShi growth into the downturn。

    国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年全国限额以上企业（年主营业务收入５００万元及以上的零售业企业）商品零售额中，汽车类增长９．１％，家具类增长２５．１％，家用电器和音像器材类增长３．３％，同比分别回落５．９、４．９和１８．２个百分点。

    The national bureau of statistics data shows，In the first half of this year the national limitation above enterprise（Years advocate business wu income of 5 million yuan or more retail enterprise）Goods in retail sales，Automobile kind of growth of 9.1%，Furniture kind growth of 25.1%，Household appliances and audio and video equipment kind of growth of 3.3%，Respectively compared to the dropped 5.9、4.9 and 18.2%。

    商务部贸易研究院消费经济部副主任赵萍分析说，尽管５月份以来楼市销售出现一定回暖，但如果房地产调控政策继续保持当前力度，商品房相关消费今后很难像前几年那样大热。

    The ministry of commerce trade institute consumer economy, deputy director of the ZhaoPing analysis said，Although may appear certain property sales since warmed，But if the real estate regulation to keep the current policy efforts，Commodity house related consumption in the future is difficult to like the last couple of years that big heat。

    此外，国内许多大城市的汽车保有量基数已经很大，环境和城市交通不堪重负，一些城市已相继采取限制性措施，因此汽车消费今后的增长空间也会受到一定限制。

    In addition，Domestic auto possession in many big cities have large base，Environment and city traffic is overwhelmed，Some cities have successively adopt restrictive measures，So cars in the future growth of the consumer space will also be restricted certainly。

    “中国仍处于工业化、城镇化迅速发展阶段，要通过政策引导，尽快培育住房、汽车以外的消费新热点，引领消费升级。”步步高商业连锁股份有限公司副总裁陈志强说。

    “China is still in the industrialization、Rapid urbanization development stage，To through the policy guidance，Foster housing as soon as possible、Car outside of the new consumption hotspot，Lead consumer upgrade。”Step commercial chain Co., LTD. Vice President ChenZhiJiang said。

    当前，我国居民消费占ＧＤＰ的比重只在三分之一左右，即使加上政府消费，最终消费占ＧＤＰ的比重也仅为４０％多，比世界平均水平低２０多个点，扩大消费潜力巨大。

    The current，Our residents to consumption in GDP in only about a third，Even with government spending，Final consumption in GDP just over 40%，Lower than the world's average level more than 20 points，Expand consumption has great potential。

    据商务部测算，２０１５年我国社会消费品零售总额有望超过３２万亿元，位居世界前列；到２０２０年左右，我国将成为世界最大的消费市场。

    According to the ministry of commerce estimates，In 2015, total retail sales are expected to more than 32 trillion yuan，Ranks in the top；By 2020 or so，Our country will become the world's largest consumer market。

  

    消费新热点谁来担纲？   New consumption hotspot who will play？

    受访人士认为，未来谁来取代住房和汽车成为支柱消费，目前尚不明朗，但可以肯定的是，节能环保等新型产品和文化旅游等服务业态将成为消费升级的方向。而随着收入分配改革的推进、消费环境的改善和消费预期的向好，将持续为扩大消费增添动力。

    Interviewed think，The future who to replace housing and car become pillar consumption，It is not clear，But it certainly is，Energy conservation and environmental protection and so on the new product and cultural tourism, and other services will be spending the upgrade formats direction。But along with the reform process of the income distribution、The improvement in consumption environment and consumption expected up well，And will continue to expand consumption adds power。

    ６月１日起，中央财政安排２６５亿元用于支持扩大节能家电等产品消费，据测算，此举将拉动消费需求约４５００亿元。

    June 1，The central government budget for 26.5 billion yuan for support extending energy saving electrical home appliances products consumption，According to estimates，The move will drive consumption demand of about 450 billion yuan。

    服务消费是另外一大热点。中国社科院的一份报告测算，２０１１年我国居民包括旅游、文娱、体育等在内的休闲消费规模超过２．８万亿元，相当于社会消费品零售总额的１５．５３％。

    Service consumption is another big heat。A report by the Chinese academy of social sciences measure，In 2011, residents including tourism、civic、Sports, leisure consumption scale more than 2.8 trillion yuan，Equivalent to 15.53% of the total retail sales。

    专家分析指出，当前我国人均ＧＤＰ已超过５０００美元，正处于由吃、住为主的消费向发展型、享受型消费升级的阶段，在服务消费方面有着巨大需求。但现在许多服务业发育程度不够，在产品供给方面存在“瓶颈”，制约了服务消费的扩大。

    Expert analysis points out that，The current per capita GDP has more than 5000 dollars，Is in from eating、Live primarily to development-oriented consumption、XiangShouXing consumption upgrade stage，In service consumption demand has huge。But now many of the service industry development level is not enough，In product supply exist“bottleneck”，Restricted the expansion of the service consumption。

    “发展服务业，一方面要靠改革，破除垄断，放开诸如电信、银行等服务行业的准入门槛，为消费者提供更丰富、更低廉的服务产品；另一方面，要靠发展，通过制订规范和标准，出台财政、金融等支持政策，推动行业做强做大。”赵萍说。

    “Development services，On one hand we should rely on reform，Breaking monopoly，Let go of such as telecom、Banks and other service industry admittance threshold，To provide consumers with more abundant、More cheap service products；On the other hand，Will depend on the development，By setting specifications and standards，On financial、Financial support policies，Promote the industry bigger。”ZhaoPing said。

    记者了解到，即将召开的全国流通工作会议上将出台为流通业减负的多项政策。流通渠道的顺畅、流通成本的降低，也会刺激居民进行更多的即期消费。

    The reporter understands，Forthcoming national work conference on circulation will be issued for reduction of the financial burden of circulation industry polices。Circulation channel smooth、Circulation cost reduction，Also can stimulate residents more immediate consumption。

    扩大消费，归根结底还要提高消费能力，改善消费预期。因此，专家建议尽快改革收入分配制度，增加中低收入群体的收入，同时完善社会保障体系，建立扩大消费的长效机制。

    Expanding consumer，In the final analysis and improve consumption ability，Improving consumption is expected。so，Experts suggest that the reform of the income distribution system as soon as possible，Increase in the income of low-income people，And perfect social security system，Establish expand consumption of long-term mechanism。