中国经济仍在适度增长空间——上半年经济形势述评（上） China's economy is still in the moderate growth in the first half of space-review the economic situation（on）

    “破八”，抑或“保八”，似乎成为近年来很多人判断中国经济形势的一个标准。习惯了中国经济高速增长的人，看到上半年GDP增长7.8%的数字后，不免产生担忧和悲观，一些媒体甚至将“GDP三年来首次破八”引向“中国神话是否破灭”的讨论。

    “Break eight”，or“The eight”，In recent years many people seem to be judgment on China's economic situation of a standard。Accustomed to the fast-growing Chinese economy，See GDP growth by 7.8% in the first half of the figures，Not produce fears and pessimistic，Some media and even will“The eight GDP for the first time in three years”to“China's mythology whether burst”discussion。

    但是，7.8%真的令人那么悲观吗？

    but，7.8% is actually so pessimistic？

    缓中趋稳，看增长亮点频闪     Slow stabilised in，See growth window frequency flash

    根据国家统计局公布的信息，今年上半年GDP同比增长7.8%，其中，一季度增长8.1%、二季度增长7.6%，增幅分别比上季度回落0.8和0.5个百分点。虽然从数字上看，GDP增幅已经连续6个季度回落，但从二季度的数据，特别是从5、6月的数据来看，国民经济的运行已经出现了缓中趋稳的迹象。从工业看，4月份到6月份，工业增加值分别同比增长了9.3%、9.6%和9.5%，不仅波动幅度很小，而且后两个月的增幅都高于4月份。从投资看，上半年固定资产投资同比增长20.4%，比1—5月份回升了0.3个百分点。其中，基础设施同比增长4.4%，扭转了一季度负增长2.1%的局面。从消费看，社会消费品零售总额，6月份名义增长13.7%，比上个月回落了0.1个百分点，但扣物价之后增幅高于上个月。国家统计局的分析认为，从这些主要指标情况来看，二季度的经济增长月度之间趋于平稳。

    According to the national bureau of statistics released the information，GDP grew 7.8% year-on-year in the first half of this year，Among them，Growth of 8.1% in the first quarter、Growth of 7.6% in the second quarter，Growth last quarter dropped 0.8, respectively, compared with 0.5%。Although looked from the digit，GDP growth has six consecutive quarterly fall back，But in the second quarter from the data，Especially from 5、6 month of data to see，The operation of the national economy has appeared in the slow stabilised signs。Look from industrial，April to June，Value added of industry respectively year-on-year growth of 9.3%、9.6% and 9.5%，Not only small fluctuations，And after two months of growth than in April。Look from investment，Fixed asset investment in the first half year-on-year growth of 20.4%，More than 1-may pick up 0.3%。Among them，Infrastructure year-on-year growth of 4.4%，Turn the fell by 2.1% in the first quarter of the situation。From consumer see，Social total retail sales of consumer goods，June nominal growth of 13.7%，Fell by 0.1% last month，But prices rise higher than last month after buckle。The national bureau of statistics that analysis，From these main index situation，Two quarters of economic growth between monthly reached a plateau。

    上半年国民经济在缓中趋稳的同时，也呈现出几大亮点。

    The national economy in the first half in slow stabilised at the same time，Also present a few big window。

    首先是农业风调雨顺，生产形势较好，特别是夏粮九连增，继续获得大丰收。全国夏粮产量达到2599亿斤，比上年增产71亿斤，增长2.8%，创历史新高。夏收油菜籽产量1292万吨，比上年增加46万吨，增长3.7%。上半年，猪牛羊禽肉产量3925万吨，同比增长5.5%，其中猪肉产量2588万吨，增长5.9%。生猪存栏45526万头，同比增长3.5%；生猪出栏33837万头，增长5.6%。生猪出栏及存栏均为5年来同期最高。

    First is the good agricultural，Production situation is better，Especially the summer crops nine even increase，Continue to a bumper harvest。The national the output of 259.9 billion catties，An additional 7.1 billion pounds more than the previous year，2.8% increase，A record。The summer harvest rapeseed production 12.92 million tons，An increase of 460000 tons，3.7% increase。In the first half，Pig cow sheep poultry production 39.25 million tons，Year-on-year growth of 5.5%，Among them pork production 25.88 million tons，5.9% increase。The live pig head hand is 455.26 million，Year-on-year growth of 3.5%；The live pig market 338.37 million head，5.6% increase。The live pig market and are the same period for five years on hand is the highest。

    亮点之二是城乡居民收入继续较快增长，生活进一步改善。上半年虽然经济增长持续回落，但是就业形势总体稳定。上半年城镇新增就业岗位694万，同比多增39万。城镇居民人均可支配收入扣物价以后实际增长9.7%，农村居民人均现金收入实际增长12.4%，双双超过GDP增幅，其中，农村居民收入增长速度已经连续10个季度快于城镇居民。保障性安居工程建设积极推进，上半年基本建成260万套，占目标任务的五成以上；新开工470万套，占目标任务的六成以上。

    Another highlight is the income of urban and rural residents to continue growing rapidly，To further improve the life。Although in the first half of economic growth continues to fall back，But employment situation overall stability。Urban jobs in the first half of 6.94 million，More than 390000 year-on-year increase。Urban per capita disposable income grew by 9.7% in real terms after buckle prices，Rural per capita cash income grew by 12.4% in real terms，Both more than GDP growth，Among them，Rural residents' income growth speed 10 consecutive quarters faster than urban residents。Supportability project construction actively promote the living，In the first half of 2.6 million basic built，Accounting for more than fifty percent of the target task；New start of 4.7 million，Accounting for more than sixty percent of the target task。

    亮点之三是物价涨幅进一步回落，通货膨胀的压力明显趋缓。上半年，在国家一系列稳定物价政策的作用下，物价上涨的势头得到了遏制，居民消费价格同比涨幅从1月份的4.5%回落到6月份的2.2%，上半年上涨3.3%，涨幅比一季度回落0.5个百分点，比上年同期回落2.1个百分点。其中，上半年食品价格上涨6.9%，比去年同期回落4.9个百分点。城市住房价格在持续的调控下总体回落，70个大中城市中，新建商品住宅价格同比下降的城市数量从去年9月以来持续增加，6月份已达57个。

    Window # 3 is annual rate further down，The pressure of inflation slowed significantly。In the first half，In a series of national policy under the function of price stability，The trend of rising prices got curbed，Consumer prices rise up from 4.5% in January to June dropped 2.2%，Rose 3.3% in the first half，Or better than a drop of 0.5% in the first quarter，A drop of 2.1% from the same period a year earlier。Among them，Food prices rose 6.9% in the first half，A drop of 4.9% more than the same period last year。City housing prices in the continuing regulatory overall fall back，In 70 major cities，New commodity residential house prices the year-on-year drop from last September to the number of cities has continued to increase，June has amounted to 57。

    亮点之四是结构调整继续取得新的进展。上半年，六大高耗能行业同比增长9.4%，增幅低于全部工业。与此同时，新兴产业较快增长，高新技术产业的增加值增速是12.3%，比规模以上工业平均增长高1.8个百分点。节能减排继续取得新的成效，上半年总的能源消费量增速同比回落。

    Highlights of the four is structure adjustment continue to make progress。In the first half，Six hing energy-consuming profession year-on-year growth of 9.4%，All increases were less than the industry。At the same time，Emerging industry growing rapidly，The added value of high-tech industry growth is 12.3%，Large industrial average growth than high 1.8%。Energy conservation and emission reduction continue to get new achievements，Total energy consumption growth in the first half year-on-year fall back。

    亮点之五是重点领域改革进一步深化。鼓励和引导民间投资健康发展的42项实施细则全部出台；营业税改增值税试点进展顺利，并将新增10省市开展试点；温州金融综合改革试验已经破题；居民阶梯电价已经全面实施。

    The window is the key fields five further deepening reform。Encourage and guide the healthy development of the private investment in the detailed rules for the implementation of the 42 items for all come；Business tax to pilot went well VAT，And to add new pilot 10 provinces and cities；Wenzhou financial comprehensive reform experiment has "presentation；Residents have the full implementation of the ladder electricity price。

    亮点之六是财政金融运行基本平稳。上半年，财政收入同比增长12.2%，财政支出同比增长21.3%，教育、医疗卫生、住房和节能环保等领域支出增长更快。货币供应量同比增速平稳，新增贷款同比增加。截至6月末，广义货币（M2）余额同比增长13.6%，比上月末高0.4个百分点，与上年末持平。

    Window six is finance operation basic stable。In the first half，Fiscal revenue up 12.2%，Financial expenditure year-on-year growth of 21.3%，education、Medical health、Housing, energy saving and environmental protection spending increased faster。Money supply growth up smoothly，New loan year-on-year increase。By the end of June，Broad money（m2）Balance year-on-year growth of 13.6%，0.4% higher than late last month，And ShangNianMo flat。

    得来不易，稳增长坚定信心     Not come easily，Steady growth firm the confidence

    困境中实现7.8%的增长，实属得来不易。

    The growth of 7.8% is realized in trouble，Is not come easily。

    今年以来，中国经济发展的环境极为复杂严峻。从外部环境看，世界各主要经济体复苏乏力，欧债危机甚至愈演愈烈，前景难测。外部需求极度乏力，导致中国出口增幅在低位运行，部分企业经营困难，亏损增加。从国内看，在持续的房地产调控政策作用下，房地产开发投资增速和商品房销售面积都持续回落。在前期刺激消费的政策逐渐退出后，新的消费热点也尚未出现。

    Since this year，The development of the Chinese economy is very complex severe environment。From the outside environment look，The world each major economy weak recovery，The debt crisis or even get worse，Prospects are。External demand extreme fatigue，Cause the Chinese export growth in the low post operation，Part of the enterprise management difficulties，Losses by。From domestic see，In the last real estate control policies under the role，Investment in real estate development growth and commodity house area is continued sales dropped。In previous stimulating consumption policy gradually after exit，New consumption hotspot also has not appeared yet。

    复杂与严峻还不仅来自外需乏力与内需不足双重叠加，也来自短期因素与中长期因素叠加。在经历了30多年的高速增长后，支撑经济高速增长的优势有所弱化，资源环境的约束日益突出。中国经济已经基本告别了两位数的增长，经济潜在增长率开始下降。在这种情况下，党中央、国务院坚持实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策，按照稳中求进的工作总基调，果断加大政策预调微调力度。在宏观调控措施的作用下，中国经济避免了过快下滑，仍然实现了7.8%的增长，是名副其实的来之不易。

    Complex and severe also comes not only from weak domestic demand and foreign demand shortage double stack，Also comes from short-term factors and long-term factors stack。After 30 years of high-speed growth，Support the advantages of rapid economic growth has weakened，The constraints of resources and environment is more and more serious。China's economy has basically said goodbye to the double-digit growth，Economic potential growth rate began to fall。In this case，The party central committee、The state council to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy，According to WenZhongQiuJin work always fundamental key，Decisive strengthening policy presetters fine-tuning strength。In macroeconomic regulation under the action of measures，China's economy to avoid the rapid decline，Still the 7.8% growth in the realized，Is really a hard-won。

    与其他国家相比，更凸显7.8%的得来不易。目前，不仅发达经济体困难重重，就连新兴经济体也出现较大起伏。金砖五国中，二季度印度和俄罗斯的经济增长率只有5%左右，巴西的经济增长率更下滑到1.2%左右，南非的经济增长率也比较低。因此，中国经济上半年7.8%仍然是比较好的速度。

    Compared with other countries，The more prominent 7.8% of not come easily。At present，Not only developed economies with difficulties，Even emerging economies appear bigger rise and fall。Compound in the five countries，In the second quarter of India and Russia's economic growth rate is about 5%，Brazil's economic growth rate fell to 1.2% more，South Africa's economic growth rates are low。so，China's economy is still in the first half 7.8% better speed。

    党中央、国务院对中国经济发展环境的困难早有分析，为今年国民经济制订了7.5%的预期发展目标，上半年实现7.8%的增长，仍然高于这一预期目标。从工业、投资、消费、财政等各主要指标看，虽然都有回落，但仍然运行在适度增长区间。

    The party central committee、The state council of China's economic development environment of difficult early analysis，This year for the national economy made 7.5% of the expected development goals，The growth of 7.8% in the first half realize，Still higher than the expected goal。From the industry、investment、consumption、The main indexes such as financial look，Although have corrections，But still function in moderate growth interval。

    面对7.8%，我们没有理由对中国经济失去信心。

    Facing 7.8%，We have no reason to China's economy lose confidence。

    从长期来看，我们仍处在发展的战略机遇期内，中国经济发展的基本面没有改变，工业化、城市化、市场化、国际化仍然是中国经济增长的基本动力。原世界银行副行长兼首席经济学家林毅夫刚刚卸任回国就坚定地表示，中国仍是发展中国家，产业升级、基础设施和社会福利改善的空间很大，项目也很多，充足的财政能力加上巨大的经济需求，中国在未来一段时间内保持稳定的高速度增长完全有可能。

    In the long run，We are still in the development strategic opportunity period，China's economic development has not changed the fundamentals，industrialization、urbanization、marketization、The internationalization of China's economic growth is still the basic power。Former world bank vice President and chief economist Justin yifu Lin who until recently was back to China is firmly said，China is still a developing country，Industrial upgrading、Infrastructure and improve social welfare is a big space，Project also many，Plenty of financial ability plus the huge economic demand，China within a period of time in the future stability of the high speed growth is likely。

    毫无疑问，中国经济当前面临较大困难，下行的压力仍然存在。我们既要看到，经济增速适度回调符合宏观调控的预期目标，也符合转方式调结构的要求，同时，也要关注经济运行中出现的新情况新问题，重视解决企业生产经营遇到的突出问题。与2008年国际金融危机袭来时不同的是，全社会已经建立了立足内需的共识，中国经济内生性因素正在累积，我们对中国发展的信心依旧。尤为重要的是，政府积累了更加丰富的宏观调控经验，对解决当前的困难已经并即将采取更灵活、更有针对性的调控措施。正如林毅夫所评价的：“面对世界经济下滑对中国经济的影响，中国政府具有足够的财政空间和产业升级空间，完全有可能在今明两年保持高速稳定发展。”（记者 朱剑红）

    There is no doubt that，China's current economic difficulties facing larger，The downward pressure still exists。We should see，Economic growth with moderate callback macro-control anticipated target，Also accord with the requirement of the turn way structure，At the same time，Also want to focus on economic operation of the new situation of the new problem appeared，To solve the production and operation of enterprises meet of the outstanding problems。And in 2008, the international financial crisis hit is different，The whole society has been established based on the consensus of domestic demand，China's economic endogenous factor is accumulated，China's development of our faith remains。Even more important，The government has accumulated more abundant experience in macroeconomic regulation，To solve the current difficult has and will take a more flexible、More specific control measures。As the evaluation of yifu Lin：“Facing the world economic downturn the impact on the Chinese economy，The Chinese government has enough financial space and industrial upgrade space，Is likely in the next two years to keep the stable development。”（Reporter ZhuJianGong）

努力实现经济平稳较快发展——温家宝在江苏调研 Efforts to achieve fast yet steady economic development--wen jiabao in jiangsu research

    7月6日至8日，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝来到江苏省常州、镇江、南京等地就当前经济形势进行调研，并在南京主持召开辽宁、江苏、浙江、安徽、广东五省经济形势座谈会。这是7月7日，温家宝在南京浦镇车辆有限公司生产车间与一线工人亲切交谈。新华社记者 李涛 摄、

    On July 6 to 8 days，The standing committee of CCCPC political bureau、The state council premier wen jiabao came to jiangsu changzhou、zhenjiang、Nanjing on the current economic situation investigation，And in nanjing presided liaoning、jiangsu、zhejiang、anhui、The five provinces of guangdong economic situation forum。This is July 7，Wen jiabao in nanjing pu town vehicle Co., LTD production workshop and a friendly chat line workers。The xinhua news agency LiTao perturbation、

    ７月６日至８日，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝来到江苏省常州、镇江、南京等地就当前经济形势进行调研，并在南京主持召开辽宁、江苏、浙江、安徽、广东五省经济形势座谈会。

    On July 6 to 8 days，The standing committee of CCCPC political bureau、The state council premier wen jiabao came to jiangsu changzhou、zhenjiang、Nanjing on the current economic situation investigation，And in nanjing presided liaoning、jiangsu、zhejiang、anhui、The five provinces of guangdong economic situation forum。

    温家宝指出，当前我国经济运行总体上是平稳的，但下行压力仍然较大。要进一步加大预调微调力度，坚持实施积极的财政政策，特别要注重完善结构性减税政策，继续实施稳健的货币政策，有效解决信贷资金供求结构性矛盾，着力提高政策的针对性、前瞻性和有效性。 >>>详细阅读

    Wen jiabao said，In China's current economic operation on the whole is smooth，But downward pressure still greater。To further increase the preset fine-tuning strength，To implement the proactive fiscal policy，Special to want to notice to perfect the structural tax cuts，Continue to implement the steady monetary policy，Effectively solve the credit funds structural contradiction of supply and demand，Strive to improve the corresponding policy、Prospective and effectiveness。 > > > detailed reading

坚定信心 稳中求进——评我国年中经济形势 Firm the confidence WenZhongQiuJin-review our country years economic situation

    中国经济年中“成绩单”日前公布，二季度经济增速低于８％引起高度关注。复杂环境中，如何看待当前经济形势，对于坚定信心、稳中求进，实现全年经济发展预期目标，为未来更高质量的发展奠定基础，至关重要。

    China's economic years“transcript”released，Economic growth in the second quarter caused by less than 8% interest。Complex environment，How to look at the current economic situation，For firm the confidence、WenZhongQiuJin，Achieve annual economic development targets，For the future development of higher quality lay the foundation，crucial。

    无论是经济数据的连续回落，还是企业家信心指数的持续低徊，这些现象都表明，当前我国经济下行压力的确较大，必须增强忧患意识，采取有效措施稳住增长。但同时应当看到，我国经济增速仍在预期目标之上，趋稳态势明显。只要我们坚定信心、沉着应对，就一定能够实现全年经济增长目标，进而促进经济又好又快发展。

    Whether the economic data for fall back，Or entrepreneurs, the confidence index for almost，These phenomena are suggests，In China's current economic downward pressure indeed larger，We must enhance consciousness of suffering，Take effective measures steady growth。But at the same time should see，China's economic growth is still in the expected goal on top，Stabilised situation obvious。As long as we are confident、Poised to respond to，Will be able to realize annual economic growth targets，And promote sound and rapid economic growth。

    应对国际金融危机的持续影响，我们应当有充分的信心。不能忘记，２００８年秋季，百年不遇的国际金融危机如惊涛骇浪般袭来时，凭着“信心比黄金和货币更重要”的坚定信念以及强有力的一揽子计划，我们成功实现了经济增速的“Ｖ”形反转。应对国际金融危机三年多来，我国经济结构调整步伐加快，宏观调控的经验更加丰富，为我们在复杂国际环境中保持经济平稳较快发展提供了有力支撑。 >>>详细阅读

    To deal with the international financial crisis continue to affect，We shall have full faith。Can't forget，Fall 2008，The most serious international financial crisis as a paradises raids，with“Confidence is more important than gold and currency”The firm faith and strong package，We can successfully accomplish the economic growth“v”Form reversal。To deal with the international financial crisis for more than three years，China's economic structure adjustment pace，The experience of the macroeconomic regulation more rich，In the complex international environment for us to keep the fast yet steady economic development provides a strong support。 > > > detailed reading