新华社北京８月９日电(记者安蓓、江国成、胡俊超)国家发展和改革委员会９日宣布，自１０日零时起小幅上调汽、柴油价格。这是国内油价在连续三个月下调后首次涨价。为何油价停止下跌步伐？此次上调将对我国经济产生什么影响？国内成品油价格是否又将步入上行通道？后市是否会出现“油荒”？记者９日采访了相关人士。

    Beijing, aug. 9 (xinhua news agency(Reporter AnBei、JiangGuoCheng、HuJunChao)The national development and reform commission announced on 9，Since 10, 00:00 a modest increase steam、Diesel prices。This is the domestic oil prices in three consecutive months after price cut for the first time。Why oil prices drop stop pace？The rise of China economic what influence？Domestic product prices and will step into whether upstream path？Is whether there will be“Oil waste”？Reporter 9, the relevant personage interview。

    

    国内油价止步“四连跌” Domestic oil prices to stop“Four even fall”

    就在人们欢庆国内油价“三连跌”后不久，国际原油价格就展开凌厉的上涨势头。发展改革委表示，此次国内成品油价格调整，主要是按照现行国内成品油价格形成机制，根据近期国际市场油价变化情况决定的。

    In people celebrating the domestic oil prices“Three even fall”Shortly after，The international oil prices start the relentless rise momentum。Development and reform commission said，The domestic product prices adjustments，According to the current domestic oil major is price forming mechanism，According to recent international market prices change the decision。

    新华社石油价格系统９日发布的数据显示，８月８日，三地（迪拜、布伦特、辛塔）原油移动平均价格变化率为７．２８％。根据现行石油价格管理办法，当国际市场原油连续２２个工作日移动平均价格变化超过４％时，可相应调整国内成品油价格。８月９日是７月１１日成品油价格调整后第２２个工作日。

    The xinhua news agency oil price system 9 statistics released，August 8,，three（dubai、brent、Michael essien tower）Crude oil prices moving average rate of 7.28%。According to the current oil price management approach，When the international oil market for 22 consecutive working day moving average price changes more than 4%，May be adjusted domestic prices of refined petroleum products。August 9, is July 11, adjust product prices after 22 nd working days。

    金银岛成品油市场分析师韩景媛说，“三连跌”后，国内成品油价格累计降幅接近每吨１３００元，市场早已囤积上涨动能。此外，当前国内物价压力缓解也是成品油价格如期上调的先决条件。

    Treasure island refined oil market analysts HanJingYuan said，“Three even fall”after，Domestic product prices accumulative total Delphi $1300 per ton，The market had already hoarding up kinetic energy。In addition，The current domestic price pressure relief is also product prices rise on the prerequisites。

    ９日晚间，在中国石油北京宣武门加油站加油的车辆开始增多。出租车司机叶师傅对记者说，现在油价调整比较频繁，市场预测也都比较准确。听说油价会上调，这几天他干完活都要加满油。

    9 evening，In Chinese oil gas station come on vehicle franchise Beijing started to increase。The taxi driver leaves teacher says to the reporter，Now the oil price adjustment frequently，The market forecast also are accurate。Heard that oil prices the meeting，This few days he finished work be added a full tank。

    今年以来，国内成品油价格调整频繁。继２月和３月连续两个月上涨后，５月、６月和７月又连续三个月下调，出现现行价格形成机制实施以来国内油价首个“三连跌”。

    Since this year，Domestic product prices adjust frequently。Following the February and march rose after two consecutive months，may、June and July for three consecutive months and cut，In the current price forming mechanism domestic oil prices since the implementation of the first“Three even fall”。

    韩景媛说，今年以来国内成品油价格严格遵守价格形成机制调整，调整频率明显加快，意味着成品油价格形成机制在实际操作中执行更加严格，并对市场起到一定的积极作用，有助于引导市场根据整体经济形势适当调整，并加快与国际接轨。

    HanJingYuan said，Since this year domestic prices of refined petroleum products strictly abide by the price adjustment mechanism，Adjust the frequency quickened，Mean oil price forming mechanism in practice more strict execution，And to play a positive role in the market，Help to lead the market according to overall economic situation appropriate adjustments，And speed up with international standards。

    

    油价上调将小幅拉高ＣＰＩ Oil prices rise will push a CPI

    卓创资讯成品油市场分析师陈晴说，成品油作为基本生产资料，价格上调将对我国经济运行成本产生一定拉高作用。

    Zhuo and information refined oil market analysts ChenQing said，Oil products as the basic production material，Increase in fuel prices on our country's economic operation cost produce certain effect push。

    她分析说，成品油价格占ＣＰＩ的比重为０．２％左右，此次油价上调将直接拉高ＣＰＩ约０．０１个百分点；但从成本传导效果看，食品、烟酒、服装等各行业中均有一定的油耗比例，因此综合看，对ＣＰＩ的拉动要高于０．０１个百分点。

    She said the analysis，Prices of refined petroleum products accounted for around 0.2% of the proportion of the CPI，The oil price rise will directly push CPI about 0.01%；But from a cost spillover effects look，food、Alcohol and tobacco、Clothing in various industries, such as all have certain proportion of oil consumption，So comprehensive look at，The drive to the CPI is higher than 0.01%。

    对于私家车主而言，如果出行限于正常上下班和周末出行，其月度油耗成本增加约３０元，影响有限。

    As for private owners，If travel limited to normal and travel to the weekend，The monthly cost of fuel consumption by about 30 yuan，Limited impact。

    物流行业无疑是受油价影响最大的行业。卓创资讯估算，此次油价上调后，载重３０吨的物流货车，每月将增加１１００元的油耗成本。目前运输成本占物流企业成本的７０％左右，而油价成本约占运输成本的一半。此次柴油价格涨幅为３７０元／吨，将直接增加２．５３％的运输成本，进而增加１．７９％的物流成本。

    The logistics industry is certainly the biggest industry commodity prices。Zhuo and estimate information，After the oil prices rise，Load of 30 tons of logistics van，Up to $1100 per month and will be fuel costs。At present transportation cost accounting for about 70% of the cost of logistics enterprise，And the cost of oil accounts for about half of the transportation costs。The diesel prices for 370 yuan/ton，Will directly increase 2.53% of transportation cost，Then increase 1.79% of the logistics cost。

    生意社成品油市场分析师李宏说，油价上调利好炼油行业，有望弥补炼油板块亏损，提振炼厂开工积极性。 此外，此次油价上调将对石油化工、煤炭、节能板块构成一定利好。

    Business club refined oil market analysts li said，Oil prices rise oil refining industry good，Are expected to make up for oil refining plate losses，To boost refinery construction enthusiasm。 In addition，The oil prices will rise to petroleum chemical industry、coal、Energy saving plates must be positive news。

    

    油价将步入上行轨道？ Oil prices up into orbit？

    专家指出，尽管世界经济依然不景气，全球石油消费缺乏强有力的需求支撑，但由于产油大国伊朗石油出口受限以及中东地区紧张局势等原因，全球脆弱的石油供求关系失去平衡，导致近一个月以来国际油价显著走高。

    Experts point out that，Although the world economy remains sluggish，Global oil consumption demand the absence of strong support，But because the big oil producing countries Iran's oil exports limited and the Middle East tensions wait for a reason，Global oil demand and supply of the fragile off balance，Lead to nearly a month international oil prices significantly since the higher。

    国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室主任牛犁认为，当前全球经济基本面没有明显改善，地缘政治因素尚未凸显，国际油价持续大幅反弹的可能性减少，国内成品油价格连续上调的概率不大。他预计，年底之前，国际油价将呈疲弱态势。不过如果地缘政治因素激化，不排除会出现较大反弹。

    The state information center forecast of economic macro economic NiuLi think director of research，The current global economic fundamentals no obvious improvement，Geopolitical factors has not been revealed，The international oil prices continue to rebound sharply reduce the possibility，Domestic product prices of continuous increase in the rear。He is expected to，Before the end of the，The international oil prices would be a weak state。But if the geopolitical escalate，They would not rule out appear bigger rebound。

    李宏认为，影响未来国际油价走势的主要因素是地缘政治以及全球经济走势。如果国际原油价格后期持续提振，国内成品油价格９月或迎来再度上调。

    Li think，Affect future oil prices in the international situation is the main factor geopolitical and economic trends。If international crude oil prices continued to boost the late，Domestic product prices in September or raised again。

    陈晴预计，此次油价上调后，国内成品油市场仍将平稳上涨。当前汽油消费处于旺季；雨季过后，下游基建、厂矿开工率提高，休渔期结束，三秋农忙到来，柴油需求也将明显转好。

    ChenQing is expected to，After the oil prices rise，Domestic refined oil market will still rose steadily。The current petrol consumption is in peak season；After the rainy season，Downstream infrastructure、Minding starts increased，Two-month fishing moratorium end，Least seems coming，Diesel demand will also be obvious turned around。

    

    “油荒”或不再现 “Oil waste”Or not reproduce

    随着近日成品油调价窗口开启，部分地区成品油供应一度紧缩，这是否意味着“油荒”可能再现？

    With the recent oil refiners window open，Parts of the product oil supply once deflation，Does this mean that“Oil waste”May represent？

    陈晴认为，调价前的供应紧缩多是人为现象，主营控销以追求利润，弥补“三连跌”时的亏损。上调价格落实后，主营控销将会放开。

    ChenQing think，Before the refiners supply squeeze more is the human phenomenon，The main control pin to the pursuit of profit，Make up for“Three even fall”Losses when。Raise the price after implementation，The main control sales will be let go。

    另一方面，受台风影响，“北油南下”船只靠岸困难，导致华东以及沿江等部分资源配置未到位。预计台风过去，配置计划将及时到位。此外，上半年经济增速放缓，成品油需求受到影响，库存积压较多。综合看，调价后出现油荒的可能性不大。 

    On the other hand，Affected by the tsunami，“North down oil”Ships ashore difficult，In east China and the part such as along the allocation of resources did not reach the designated position。The typhoon is expected to，Allocation plan will be in place in time。In addition，Economic growth is slowing in the first half，Oil demand affected，Inventory more。Comprehensive look at，After oil refiners in waste is unlikely。