新华社郑州８月１２日电（记者梁鹏）作为粮食生产大省，河南多年来用占全国１／１６的耕地，生产了全国１／４的小麦、１／１０的粮食，为保障国家粮食安全作出了重要贡献。河南省地方经济社会调查队近期对河南粮食生产及需求情况进行了专题分析和预测，研究表明，未来５－１０年河南粮食仍可大量调出。

    The xinhua news agency zhengzhou 8 dec（Reporter LiangPeng）As a big province of grain production，Henan for many years with accounts for 1/16 of the country's arable land，The quarter of wheat production、1/10 of the food，To ensure the national food security has made an important contribution。Local economic society in henan province of henan recent team food production and demand on the project analysis and forecasting，Research shows that，The next five to 10 years can still be a lot of henan food v。

    《国务院关于支持河南加快建设中原经济区的指导意见》中，对中原经济区的五大战略定位中，第一个就是要成为国家重要的粮食生产和现代农业基地，不断提高农业专业化、规模化、标准化、集约化水平，建成全国农业现代化先行区。作为全国粮食生产核心区，中原经济区要把发展粮食生产放在突出位置，到２０２０年这一区域的粮食生产能力要稳定达到１３００亿斤。

    《The state council about support to speed up the construction of central henan economic guidance》in，Of the area of the economic zone five strategic orientation，The first is to become the important national food production and modern agriculture base，Continuously improve agricultural professional、scale、standardization、Intensive level，Building it into the agricultural modernization first area。As the nation's food production area，The central economic development of grain production in the outstanding position，By 2020 the area grain production capacity will reach 130 billion jins stable。

    目前，河南全省粮食总产已经连续八年增产，连续六年超过１０００亿斤，在２０１１年粮食总产跨上了１１００亿斤的新台阶，达到１１０８亿斤。但同时，粮食产量持续稳定增长也面临一系列的挑战，如未来经济社会发展过程中耕地刚性减少、水资源约束趋紧、粮食比较效益较低、农业科技支撑能力不强等诸多问题。

    At present，Henan province grain production has been increasing in eight successive years，For 6 years more than 100 billion catties，In 2011 the grain production up 110 billion pounds to a new stage，Up to 110.8 billion pounds。But at the same time，Food production stable growth also face a series of challenges，Such as the future in the economic and social development rigid reduce cultivated land、Water resources constraint tightens、Food more benefit is low、Agricultural science and technology support capability is not strong, and many other problems。

    近期，河南省地方经济社会调查队运用有关经济学理论，采用定性与定量分析相结合的方法，对未来河南粮食生产及需求情况进行了比较科学的分析和预测，结果表明：如果没有特大意外情况发生，河南粮食产量到２０１５年可达１２４３亿斤左右，２０２０年可达１４０６亿斤左右；需求总量２０１５年可达９４７亿斤左右，２０２０年可达１０５４亿斤左右。２０１５－２０２０年河南粮食生产总量有望高于需求总量３００亿斤－３５０亿斤左右。

    recent，Local economic society in henan province using relevant economic theory swiss-made bell，The combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis method，The future of henan food production and demand the comparison of scientific analysis and forecast，The results show that：If there is no big accident happening，Henan food production to 2015 years up to 124.3 billion jins，2020 years up to 140.6 billion jins；Total demand in 2015 to 94.7 billion jins，2020 years up to 105.4 billion jins。2015-2020 year henan grain production is expected to total demand is higher than the total 30 billion pounds-35 billion jins。

    研究认为，河南在全面推进中原经济区建设的进程中，通过提高粮食生产专业化、规模化、标准化、集约化水平，能够实现粮食生产的持续发展，也能确保粮食生产的产需有余，为国家粮食安全需要持续作出贡献。

    Studies suggest that，Henan in promoting zhongyuan economic zone in the process of construction，Through improving food production specialization、scale、standardization、Intensive level，To realize the sustainable development of grain production，Also can to ensure that food production ChanXu of ease，For the national food security needs to continue to contribute。