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新闻分析:我国外汇储备缘何再现季度负增长?--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-07-13

    新华社北京7月12日电(新华社记者王培伟、安蓓、王文帅)中国人民银行12日公布的数据显示,截至2012年6月末,我国外汇储备余额为3.24万亿美元,较一季度末的3.305万亿美元减少了650亿美元。

    Beijing 7 dec(The xinhua news agency WangPeiWei、AnBei、WangWenShuai)Promulgated by the people's bank of China and the data shows,By the end of June 2012,Chinese foreign exchange reserve balance was $3.24 trillion,A quarter of the $3.305 trillion fell by $65 billion。

    这意味着继今年一季度出现净增长后,我国外汇储备再度转为季度负增长。去年第四季度,我国外汇储备较三季度减少了205.5亿美元,为1998年以来首次出现季度环比下降。而今年一季度,我国外汇储备则增长了1238.52亿美元。

    This means that the first quarter of this year appear after net growth,China's foreign exchange reserves to quarter again negative growth。Last year in the fourth quarter,Chinese foreign exchange reserve a third quarter fell by $20.55 billion,For the first time since 1998 in quarter annulus comparing decline。And the first quarter of this year,China's foreign exchange reserves rose to $123.852 billion。

    外汇储备,指一国政府所持有的国际储备资产中的外汇部分,即一国政府保有的以外币表示的债权。贸易顺差、外国直接投资净流入、国际套利资本流入等是外汇储备的主要来源。

    Foreign exchange reserves,Refers to a country government held the international reserve asset of the foreign exchange,That is one country government will retain denominated in foreign currencies of creditor's rights。Trade surplus、Net inflow of fdi、International arbitrage capital inflows are the main source of foreign exchange reserves。

    “在贸易顺差大幅恢复、FDI出现好转的情况下,外汇储备减少的主要原因是受国际金融市场动荡、美元升值、人民币升值预期下降甚至出现贬值预期的影响,居民和企业结汇意愿下降、售汇意愿增强,同时也不排除有国际套利资金的流出。”交通银行金融研究中心研究员鄂永健认为。

    “In the trade surplus back sharply、FDI appear better,Foreign exchange reserves is the main reason of the reduced by international financial market turbulence、The dollar、The appreciation of the renminbi is expected to decline appear even depreciation the desired effect,Residents and enterprise settlement will decline、Sale intend to enhance,Also not to rule out the international capital outflow arbitrage。”Traffic bank financial research fellow of the center for health think crocodile。

    商务部的数据显示,二季度我国外贸顺差为689亿美元,大幅高于去年同期的467亿美元以及今年一季度的6.7亿美元。外国直接投资方面,5月当月,我国实际使用外资金额92.29亿美元,同比增长0.05%,为年内月度同比第一次出现正增长,也结束了连续6个月单月实际使用外资下降的局面。

    The ministry of commerce figures show,In the second quarter of our country foreign trade surplus for 68.9 billion dollars,Significantly higher than last year of $46.7 billion in the same period this year and the quarter of 670 million dollars。Foreign direct investment,That may,The reality of our country to use foreign investment of 9.229 billion us dollars,Year-on-year growth of 0.05%,For years the first time there is a monthly year-on-year growth,Also ended for 6 months actually using a foreign investment of the month of decline situation。

    另有专家认为,美元升值导致的汇兑折算损失也是外汇储备出现季度环比减少的一个重要原因。

    Other experts think,The dollar exchange convert loss is also in foreign exchange reserves appear quarter of the decrease of the annulus comparing one important reason。

    “二季度以来,以欧元为代表的一些非美元货币出现较大幅度贬值,而我国外汇储备中,非美元货币占有一定的比重,从而导致折算期末数据时出现减少。”金融问题专家赵庆明认为。

    “Since the second quarter,To the euro as a representative of some of the dollars money appeared more depreciate significantly,And its foreign exchange reserves,The dollar has certain proportion of currency,Leading to convert the final data appear to reduce。”Financial experts ZhaoQingMing think。

    赵庆明同时表示,“对外汇储备季度减少不必过于在意。季度减少650亿美元,相对于超过3.24万亿美元的现有规模来讲,波动很小。”

    ZhaoQingMing also said,“Foreign exchange reserve quarter to reduce need not too concerned。Quarter reduce us $65 billion,Relative to more than $3.24 trillion for existing scale,fluctuation。”

    近年来,在外贸顺差和人民币不断升值的推动下,我国外汇储备始终处于高速增长状态,巨额的外汇储备给人民币造成了巨大的升值压力,也使得我国宏观调控的空间日益窄小。

    In recent years,In the foreign trade surplus and constantly promote the appreciation of RMB,Chinese foreign exchange reserve is always in the high growth states,Huge foreign exchange reserves to RMB caused great appreciation pressure,Also makes the space of the macro control is narrow small。

    “外汇储备改变了以往持续高速增长的态势而趋于稳定,这是我国多年来所期待看到的结果,其对降低人民币升值压力,保持人民币汇率基本稳定具有重要意义。”赵庆明认为。

    “Foreign exchange reserve has altered the sustainable growth trend and be more stable,This is our country over the years have expected to see results,The pressure to reduce the appreciation of the renminbi,Maintain the basic stability of RMB exchange rate is important。”ZhaoQingMing think。

    对于今后我国外汇储备的增长趋势,专家普遍认为,我国外汇储备将告别以往持续高速增长的态势,但也不会出现大幅减少的现象。

    For the future of China's foreign exchange reserves growth trend,Experts generally agree,China's foreign exchange reserves will say goodbye to the past sustainable growth trend,But also won't appear sharply reduce the phenomenon。

    赵庆明认为,随着外贸和人民币汇率逐渐趋于平衡,我国外汇储备出现季度、甚至月度增减交替将成为常态。

    ZhaoQingMing think,As foreign trade and the RMB exchange rate tends gradually balance,Chinese foreign exchange reserve appear quarter、Even monthly increase or decrease alternate will become normal。

    对外经贸大学金融学院院长丁志杰则表示,在不出现贸易逆差的情况下,外汇储备的趋势主要跟汇率有关。预计美元走强的趋势会持续到三季度末,所以三季度的外汇储备可能还会降低,但四季度外汇储备很可能恢复增长,因为届时美元走强的形势可能发生逆转。

    Foreign economics and trade university financial, dean of the college of DingZhiJie said it,Not in a trade deficit,The trend of foreign exchange reserves with the main exchange rate。The dollar is expected to strong trend will continue to at the end of the third quarter,So three quarters of foreign exchange reserves would probably reduce,But the fourth quarter foreign exchange reserves are likely to restore growth,Because when the dollar is strong situation may be turning。



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