新华社北京８月９日电(“新华视点”记者 刘敏、王晖余、谢云挺)国家统计局９日发布的数据显示，７月份我国ＣＰＩ同比上涨１.８％，涨幅比上月回落０.４个百分点，为３０个月以来，涨幅首次回落到２％以内。

    Beijing, aug. 9 (xinhua news agency(“Xinhua viewpoint”Reporter LiuMin、WangHuiYu、XieYunTing)Promulgated by the national bureau of statistics and data show，July CPI rose 1.8% year-on-year in our country，Or a drop of 0.4% the previous month，For 30 months，For the first time rose back to within 2%。

    ４．５％、３．２％、３．６％、３．４％、３％、２．２％，１．８％，ＣＰＩ数据似乎不断下行。物价指数持续走低是喜还是忧？中国经济如何在“控物价”与“稳增长”中寻求平衡？

    4.5%、3.2%、3.6%、3.4%、3%、2.2%，1.8%，CPI data seem to constantly to the downside。Price index falling is pleased or sorrow？How the economy in China“Control prices”and“Steady growth”Balance in？

    

    ＣＰＩ持续走低，会否按下葫芦又起瓢？ CPI falling，Will you press the gourd ladle and up？

    “７月份食品价格整体相对稳定，是助推ＣＰＩ持续下行的关键因素，翘尾因素回落也加固了这一趋势。”国务院发展研究中心宏观经济部研究员张立群说。

    “In July the whole food prices are relatively stable，Is thrusting the key factor of the CPI continued downlink，QiaoWei factors also dropped the trend is strengthening。”The state council development research center, the researchers said ZhangLiQun macro。

    专家们指出，过去ＣＰＩ持续走高让人忧虑，如百姓担心票子毛得太快；如今ＣＰＩ持续走低似乎也不让人乐观，如企业不景气，人们挣钱更难了。

    Experts say that，The past CPI continued high worrisome，If the people worry about ticket hair too fast；CPI falling now seems to let person is optimistic，Such as enterprise recession，People more difficult to make money。

    “ＣＰＩ下降有利于百姓生活成本下降，但也要看到它的另一面。”亚洲开发银行经济学家庄健说，“部分企业对国内经济景气度预期不高，企业生产意愿不足。”

    “CPI down to people living costs down，But also want to see it the other side。”The Asian development bank economists ZhuangJian said，“Part of the enterprise to the boom of the domestic economy expected is not high，Enterprise production intend to inadequate。”

    能够体现企业生产扩张意愿的ＰＭＩ与ＰＰＩ数据佐证了这一点，７月份的ＰＭＩ为５０．１％，已是连续３个月下跌；ＰＰＩ也是多月逐步走低。

    To be able to reflect the will of the enterprise production expansion with PPI data indicates the PMI to this point，The PMI for 50.1% in July，Already is down for three months；PPI is also more months gradually lower。

    据中金公司首席经济学家彭文生介绍，经济增长下降１个百分点，ＣＰＩ会下降０．５％至０．７％。

    According to cicc chief economist PengWenSheng introduced，Economic growth dropped 1%，CPI will decline 0.5% to 0.7%。

    “ＣＰＩ下行是经济增速放缓的结果，但如果ＣＰＩ持续下行，会进一步影响投资意愿，导致企业盈利水平下降，反过来影响经济增长。”复旦大学经济学院副院长孙立坚对记者说。

    “CPI downside is a result of slowing economic growth，But if the CPI continued to the downside，Will further influence investment intentions，Lead to enterprise profit decline，In turn affect economic growth。”Fudan university, vice President of the school of economics SunLiJian told reporters。

    专家分析，去年以来，包括人力、原材料成本在内的企业生产成本大幅提高，而以家电为代表的终端消费品价格却不断下跌，这些情况表明：一是中间环节装备工业或商业利润被压缩；二是有效需求减少，这样不容易调动实体经济生产的积极性。

    Expert analysis，Since last year，Including human、The cost of raw materials, production costs increase，But with home appliance, as a representative of the terminal consumer prices are falling，These show that：One is the intermediate link equipment industrial or commercial profit is compressed；2 it is effective to reduce demand，So it is not easy to arouse the enthusiasm of economic production entity。

    “企业是就业的稳定器。”中国（海南）改革发展研究院院长迟福林说，“要防止ＣＰＩ走低引发的就业问题。”

    “Enterprise is the stabilizer employment。”China（hainan）Reform development research institute President ChiFuLin said，“To prevent triggered CPI falling employment problem。”

    谈到下半年ＣＰＩ走势，专家也向记者表达了各自的观点。

    Talking about the second half CPI movements，Experts also to journalists expressing their point of view。

    中国人民大学经济学院副院长刘元春表示，稳增长措施将对价格产生“托底”效应，预计下半年对ＣＰＩ的作用力度为１.７个百分点。

    The people's university of China economy, vice President of the college LiuYuanChun said，Steady growth measures to the price will produce“TuoDe”effect，The second half of the role of the CPI is expected to efforts to 1.7%。

    迟福林认为，今年下半年，ＣＰＩ有可能继续走低，但ＣＰＩ走低的幅度可能会缩小，预计ＣＰＩ涨幅总体水平维持在３％左右。

    ChiFuLin think，The second half of this year，CPI likely will continue to lower，But the extent of the CPI falling could shrink，CPI increase overall level is expected to remain at 3% or so。

    

    ＣＰＩ持续走低，如何实现保增长？ CPI falling，How to achieve the growth？

    事实上，今年以来，在外部经济低迷和内需扩张动力不足的双重影响之下，我国经济增速已经连续多个季度出现下降。“三驾马车”动力不足。

    In fact，Since this year，In the external economic downturn and domestic demand expansion underpowered double under the influence，China's economic growth has been continuous multiple quarter to fall。“Three carriages”underpowered。

    外贸受到海外市场萎缩影响，今年上半年外贸进出口总值告别此前两位数的增速，同比增长８％。一些外贸企业在成本上升和订单减少中徘徊；消费需求稳定但缺乏新引擎；投资增速也一度有所减缓。

    Foreign trade was overseas markets atrophy influence，In the first half of this year the foreign trade import and export value to say goodbye to the rate of growth of the two digits，Year-on-year growth of 8%。Some foreign trade enterprise in order to reduce the rise in the cost and lingered；Consumer demand stable but the lack of new engines；Investment growth has also been a slowdown。

    “一半是海水，一半是火焰。”国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运接受“新华视点”记者采访时如是评价经济运行，国际经济形势仍不明朗需求疲弱、贸易摩擦加剧可能令外贸雪上加霜、国内控物价防通胀仍不能放松。

    “Half is water，Half is a flame。”The national bureau of statistics spokesman filled to transport the accepted“Xinhua viewpoint”A reporter to interview if economic operation evaluation，International economic situation is still uncertain demand weak、Trade friction intensified by may make the foreign trade、Domestic control prices against inflation is still can't relax。

    经济增速与ＣＰＩ增幅回落，为宏观经济政策提供了更大空间，这是许多经济学家的共识，特别是７月份ＣＰＩ再次探底之后，如何实现保增长？

    Economic growth and CPI growth fell back，For macroeconomic policy provides more large space，This is many economists consensus，Especially in July after the CPI out again，How to achieve the growth？

    经济学者叶檀等判断，通胀缓解为下半年货币政策打开了空间。“当前货币政策基调为稳健，但偏向宽松的势头渐显，倘若经济形势仍不够景气，还有降息与降准的空间。但要把握政策的节奏与力度。

    Economists leaves wingceltis judgment, etc，Inflation ease monetary policy for the second half open space。“The current monetary policy for steady tone，But the momentum to loose faded in，If the economic situation is still not boom，And with the space must cut interest rates down。But to grasp the rhythm of the policy and efforts。

    “政策空间还很大，我们一直以来都是压着水花调控。”盛来运说。

    “Policy space is very big still，We always all is the pressure water regulation。”Filled to transport said。

    事实上，二季度以来，一些稳增长的措施陆续出台，央行一个月内两次调低存贷款利率，一批事关国民生计的项目获发改委批准，投资和需求拉动的力度逐步增加。

    In fact，Since the second quarter，Some of the measures on growth comes on stage in succession，The central bank twice a month by interest rate，A group of national life in the project is approved by the national development and reform commission，Investment demand and the strength of the increasing。

    那么如何寻求保增长的长远发展，形成以内需为主体的经济拉动呢？专家认为，改善收入分配制度体系是当务之急。

    So how to seek the growth of long-term development，With domestic demand as the main form of promoting economic growth？Experts say，Improve the income distribution system is a priority。

    一组数据显示，２０１１年，我国城镇居民人均可支配收入同比增长８．４％，低于ＧＤＰ增长９．２％和公共财政收入增长２４．８％的幅度。与此同时，消费占我国ＧＤＰ的比重不到５０％，远低于发达国家７０％的水平，甚至低于印度等发展中国家。

    A set of data shows，2011 years，Urban per capita disposable income year-on-year growth of 8.4%，Less than 9.2% GDP growth and public finance income growth rate of 24.8%。At the same time，Consumption share of our country the proportion of GDP is less than 50%，Far below the 70% level in developed countries，And even lower than India and other developing nations。

    “收入分配是关系到中国经济增长最重要的问题。”北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长林毅夫说。“关键是在顶层设计上落实‘两个提高’，即提高居民收入在国民分配中的比重，提高劳动报酬在初次分配中的比重。”迟福林说。

    “Income distribution is related to China's economic growth is the most important question。”Beijing university honorary President of the national development and research institute said Lin。“The key is in the top design implementation‘Two improve’，Namely improve household income in the national distribution of income，Improve labor remuneration in primary distribution of income。”ChiFuLin said。

    

    ＣＰＩ持续走低，为调整结构腾出空间 CPI falling，For adjusting structure to save space

    记者采访中发现，相比前期高涨幅的ＣＰＩ，眼下的物价涨幅已显得缓和了许多，这也为调整经济结构，促进经济长远发展腾出了空间。

    The reporter interviews found，The rise of high compared to the CPI，The price increase has appear relaxed the many，This also for the adjustment of economic structure，Promote economic long-term development have made the space。

    例如，楼市涨幅趋于缓和，为调整商品房和保障房的结构提供了空间；车市涨幅趋于缓和，为调整私人交通和公共交通的结构提供了空间等等。

    For example，Housing or be mitigated，To adjust the structure of the commodity house and guarantee room provide space；Half of the increase of easing，To adjust the private traffic and public transportation structure provides space, etc。

    在经济增速放缓过程中，一些企业和行业的结构调整也显露出积极的因素。

    In the economic slowdown in process，Some enterprise and industry structure adjustment also showed positive factor。

    “压力太大！”昆山经济技术开发区副主任潘建康接受记者采访时连续说了好几次这句话。但真正令他忧虑的不是开发区经济增速和出口增幅下降，而是园区内企业如何转型，更好地寻求新的市场。

    “Pressure is too great！”Kunshan economic and technology development zone, deputy director of the PanJianKang when accepting a reporter to interview continuous said several this sentence。But really make his concerns about economic growth and development of not decline export growth，But how to reform enterprise in the park，Better for new market。

    据潘建康介绍，今年以来一个迹象非常明显，以内销为主的企业销售量普遍增长２０％至３０％，而外销为主的企业则相对减少２０％至３０％。

    According to PanJianKang introduced，Since this year a very obvious signs，Mainly enterprise sales growth of 20% to 30% generally，And export is the enterprise is reduced by 20% to 30%。

    在昆山龙腾光电有限公司，为应对外接需求疲软，公司已将内外销比例由此前的７：３调整为６：４，同时缩减老产品生产线。“要不是加大内销比例并调整产品结构，今年的营业额将更不‘好看’。”公司负责人说。

    In kunshan longteng photoelectric Co., LTD，In response to the external demand weak，The company has to sell the proportion which 7 before：3 is adjusted for six：4，Also cut the old products production line。“If it weren't for increasing proportion of domestic and adjustment of product structure，This year's turnover will not more‘good-looking’。”Company officials said。

    一些企业调转“船头”开拓内需转型升级，另外一些企业则专注技术革新占领世界市场。

    Some enterprise brought the“The bow”The transformation and upgrading of domestic demand，Some other enterprise then focus on technical innovation occupied the world market。

    “未来的电视屏幕将不但可以贴在墙上看，还可以卷起来放在背包里随时拿出来看。我们的目标是，将显示器做到一个毫米薄厚。”维信诺显示技术公司研发中心主任高裕弟说。

    “The future of the television screen will not only can stick on the wall to see，Still can roll up in backpacks is taken out at any time。Our goal is，Will display do a mm thick。”D sino display technology r&d center director GaoYu brother said。

    专家分析认为，ＣＰＩ持续走低，经济增速放缓，为经济结构包括产业结构的调整带来了机遇。比如在国际经济低迷的形势倒逼之下，今年前５个月，我国电子、机械产品贸易额增幅超过９％；而初加工产品为７％左右，且增幅逐月下降。

    Expert analysis thinks，CPI falling，Economic slowdown in，For the economic structure including the adjustment of industrial structure, bring the opportunity。For example in the international economic downturn under the situation DaoBi，The first five months of this year，Our country electronic、Mechanical products trade growth by over 9%；Vegerable and around 7% of the products，And growth dropped from month to month。