新华社北京８月１５日电（新华社记者林晖、皮曙初、邹欣媛）２０１２年的夏天，“天有不测风云”的俗语似乎被不断地印证：常年缺水的华北，遭遇６１年来最强降雨；裹挟着狂风暴雨的台风，７天之内有３个连续登陆东南沿海；西南强降雨不时引发泥石流、山洪等次生灾害……

    Beijing, aug. 15（Xinhua news agency reporters LinHui、PiShu initial、ZouXinYuan）In the summer of 2012，“Fortune is fickle”Proverbs seems to be constantly confirm：Perennial water shortage in north China，61 years with the strongest rainfall；A storm raged typhoon，7 days there are three continuous on the southeast coast；Southwest strong rainfall caused mudslides from time to time、Flash floods and secondary disaster...

    极端天气引发的自然灾害，已经严重威胁着人民群众生命安全。面对人类无法控制的极端天气，我们无法“避灾”，但可以“减灾”，只有做好各项防御准备，筑牢防汛抗洪的基石，才把极端天气带来的灾害损失降到最低。

    Extreme weather caused by natural disasters，Have a serious threat to people's life safety。In the face of human beings cannot control of extreme weather，We can't“Avoid disaster”，But can“Disaster reduction”，Only do the defense preparation，Build up the foundation of flood control and flood fighting，To extreme weather brought disaster losses to a minimum。

    

    多发重发：极端天气带来日益严峻考验 Multiple retransmission：Extreme weather brings serious test

    极端天气，仿佛“幽灵”一般，神出鬼没。在全球气候变暖的大背景下，今年我国发生的极端天气日益呈现范围广、强度大、频率高的特征：

    Extreme weather，As if“ghost”general，spooks。In the global climate warming background，This year our country happened on extreme weather increasingly wide range、strength、The characteristics of high frequency：

    从地域上看，往年干旱少雨的北方地区罕见地被雨带长期笼罩。中国气象局应急减灾与公共服务司司长陈振林介绍，截至８月１日统计，北方地区降水明显偏多，其中华北地区偏多４２％，西北地区偏多２５．９％，东北地区偏多１８．４％。与此同时，江南、江淮等地却持续高温少雨天气，部分地区旱情露头。以往“南涝北旱”的气候特征，似乎正被极端天气“改写”。

    Look from the regional，The lack of rain in previous years of the northern region is rare in China for a long time。The China meteorological administration emergency relief and public service company priests ChenZhenLin is introduced，As of August 1 statistics，The north area more than precipitation distinctness，The north China by more than 42%，The northwest region by more than 25.9%，Northeast China by more than 18.4%。meanwhile，jiangnan、Jianghuai, continued high temperature little rain weather，Drought conditions in parts outcrop。In the past“NaLaoBeiHan”The climate characteristics of，Seems are extreme weather“rewrite”。

    从强度上看，一些地区短短数小时内降雨量就达到暴雨级别。据统计，仅７月份，全国就有北京、天津等９省（区、市）２２个站点日降水量达到或突破历史极值。强降水导致江河防汛压力骤然增大，７月２４日晚，三峡水库迎来７．１２万立方米每秒的建库以来最大洪峰；７月２７日，黄河中游干流吴堡水文站迎来１９８９年以来的最大洪水。

    Look from strength，Some areas just a few hours to reach storm rainfall level。According to the statistics，Only in July，The national is Beijing、Tianjin nine provinces such as（area、city）22 site day precipitation reach or breakthrough history extremum。Strong rainfall cause the rivers flood control and pressure increase abruptly，July 24 late，Of the three gorges reservoir of 71200 cubic meters per second in the construction of library largest since the peak；July 27,，Middle reaches of the Yellow River main stream fort wu hydrologic station have the biggest flood since 1989。

    从频率上看，极端天气越来越频繁，甚至在短期内反复出现。７月下旬，北京１０天之内出现３次大范围降雨过程；８月２日到８日，一周之内３个台风接连登陆我国，其中第１０号台风“达维”和第９号台风“苏拉”的登陆时间相差不到１０个小时。加上７月份登陆广东的第８号台风“韦森特”，今年以来江苏、浙江、福建、广东、台湾沿海各省都被台风“光顾”。

    Look from the frequency，Extreme weather more and more frequent，Even in the short term appeared again and again。Late July，Beijing 10 days appear three big range rainfall process；On August 2, to 8，A week after three typhoon in China，The typhoon no. 10“davey”And 9, typhoon“sula”The landing time difference of less than 10 hours。Add in July in guangdong's no. 8 typhoon“vicente”，Since this year, jiangsu、zhejiang、fujian、guangdong、Taiwan coastal provinces are the typhoon“patronage”。

    国家气候中心高级工程师孙丞虎介绍，在全球气候变暖的背景下，气温每升高１摄氏度，大气中容纳的水分能增加７％，而全球区域性升温频率不同使大气更加不稳定。因此，极端天气、水旱灾害不仅多发重发，其突发性、反常性、不可预见性也将日益凸显。

    The national climate center senior engineer SunChengHu is introduced，In under the background of global warming，The temperature rise every 1 degree Celsius，The atmosphere hold water can increase 7%，While the global warming frequency different regional atmosphere more unstable。therefore，Extreme weather、Flood and drought are not only repeat，The sudden、abnormalism、Unpredictability will also increasingly prominent。

    据中国气象局国家气候中心监测，今年７月赤道太平洋海温较常年异常偏暖，可能发展形成一次厄尔尼诺事件。厄尔尼诺，一向被南美渔民称为“不祥的圣婴”，可能带来严重的气候异常现象，下半年对我国的影响不容忽视。

    According to the China meteorological administration the national climate center monitoring，July equatorial Pacific SST anomaly slant warm than normal，The possible development form an el nino event。El nino，South America has always been fishermen called“Ominous the child”，May bring serious climate anomalies，To our country in the second half of the impact should not be overlooked。

    

    以人为本：全力确保人民群众生命安全 people-oriented：To ensure that the people's life safety

    ８月８日３时２０分，今年第１１号强台风“海葵”在浙江省象山县登陆，这也是近５年来首次有台风正面登陆浙江。

    August 8, 3 when 20 points，The 11th violent typhoon this year“Sea anemone”In the zhejiang xiangshan landing，This is nearly five years for the first time a typhoon positive in zhejiang。

    一些上了年纪的人们还记得，２４年前有一个台风和“海葵”的移动路径几乎如出一辙：同样在浙江象山县登陆，沿着几乎同样的路线掠向杭州……

    Some old people remember，24 years ago there is a typhoon and“Sea anemone”Mobile almost the same path：Also in zhejiang xiangshan landing，Almost the same along the route to the hangzhou...

    那个被标记为１９８８年第７号的台风共造成１６２人死亡。２４年后，尽管肆虐的“海葵”造成房屋倒塌、农田受淹等严重经济损失，但除舟山外，宁波、绍兴、杭州、湖州等人口稠密地区未出现人员死亡报告，人民群众生命安全得到有力保障。

    The mark for 1988 years the typhoon no. 7 were killed 162 people。24 years later，Although raging“Sea anemone”Caused houses collapsed、Such as cropland have been damaged seriously the economic loss，But in addition to the zhoushan，ningbo、shaoxing、hangzhou、Huzhou and densely populated area does not appear personnel death report，The people's life safety get powerful guarantee。

    同样的极端天气，不一样的结果。变化的背后，反映出我国灾害防御机制逐渐完善、以人为本的理念得到有力贯彻。

    The same extreme weather，Not the same results。Changes behind，Reflect our country disasters defense mechanisms perfected gradually、The idea of people oriented to get strong implement。

    政府主导、部门联动、社会参与的气象防灾减灾机制发挥着“定海神针”的作用。“达维”“苏拉””海葵”来袭期间，防台工作成为政府的第一任务，气象、水文、国土、交通等多部门共商最新汛情，并通过广播、电视、网络、短信等多种手段滚动向社会播发预警信息。社会公众的防灾减灾意识和能力也大幅提高，“不受援，便是帮”“台风大雨中骑车送外卖很危险，请大家尽量少叫外卖，安全第一”等充满暖意的微博在网络上流淌……

    The government leading、Department linkage、Society participation of meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation mechanism plays“Dinghai adsolute being needle”role。“davey”“sula””Sea anemone”During incoming，Typhoon work become the government's first task，meteorological、hydrological、land、Transportation departments should discuss the latest XunQing，And through the radio、TV、network、SMS and so on the many kinds of means rolling to the broadcast early warning information。Public consciousness on disaster prevention and mitigation and ability also increase，“Not the recipient，Is help”“The typhoon rain ride a bike shop delivery is very dangerous，Please takeaway less as far as possible，Safety first”Full of warm meaning such as micro bo on the network flow...

    从软件上看，飞速发展的技术手段，织起一张绵密的监测预警网，为防御灾害提供有力参考。目前，国家依托水文站网建立起了覆盖全国的监测站网，轻点鼠标，全国主要江河的水情、雨情、汛情、工情和各地旱情变化即可尽收眼底。以台风监测为例，我国已经基本建成高时空分辨率的台风立体监测体系，在此次防台期间，中央气象台每小时就发布一次准确的台风定位信息。

    Look from the software，The rapid development of the technology，Weave up a fine and careful monitoring and early warning，Provide a powerful reference for defense disaster。At present，Countries rely on hydrologic network of established a nationwide monitoring station network，By clicking the mouse，The main rivers of water regime、Rainfall regime、XunQing、Work feeling around and drought can change a panoramic view。To the typhoon monitoring as an example，Our country has been basically completed high space-time resolution typhoon three-dimensional monitoring system，During the typhoon period，The central meteorological observatory issued every hour a accurate typhoon positioning information。

    从硬件上看，随着越来越多的大型水利枢纽工程投入使用，挺起了防御极端天气的“脊梁”。在迎战长江第４号洪峰期间，流量达７．１２万立方米每秒的洪峰被三峡水库削减４０％左右。化洪峰于“无形”，三峡水库守住了“临门一脚”，长江中下游的防洪压力大大减轻。

    Look from the hardware，With more and more large water conservancy hub project put into use，The defense of the stand extreme weather“backbone”。No. 4 in against the Yangtze river during the flood peak，Flow of 71200 cubic meters per second is the peak of the three gorges reservoir to cut about 40%。Change peak in“intangible”，Keep the three gorges reservoir“Rimmon a feet”，The pressure of the middle and lower Yangtze river flood control is reduced greatly。

    应对极端天气，“以人为本、生命至上”的防灾理念被充分诠释。面对强台风“海葵”，浙江以“不死人、少伤人、少损失”为目标，紧急转移百万余人避险，数万艘船只回港避风；上海所有建筑工地人员提前撤离，所有户外作业全部停止，武警战士、街道干部等相关人员彻夜值班，和转移群众吃住在一起……

    Deal with extreme weather，“people-oriented、Life first”The disaster prevention philosophy is fully interpretation。In the face of violent typhoon“Sea anemone”，Zhejiang to“Deathless person、Less hurt、Less loss”As the goal，Emergency transfer killing millions of people a hedge，Tens of thousands of ships back to harbour；Shanghai all construction site personnel evacuation in advance，All open work full stop，Armed police soldiers、Streets cadres and other related personnel on duty all night，And transfer the masses to eat to live together...

    生命是最宝贵的。灾难面前，保护了生命，就能在风雨过后重建家园。

    Life is the most precious。Before disaster，Protect the life，Can in the storm rebuild their homes。

    

    隐患不少：绷紧防灾减灾这根弦 Hidden trouble many：Tighten disaster prevention and mitigation this string

    经过多年建设发展，我国应对极端天气的手段和能力都有了长足进步。但是，在全面气候变暖的大背景下，极端天气不仅“挥之不去”，甚至可能“变本加厉”，我们需要做的事还有很多。

    After years of construction and development，In order to deal with the extreme weather means and abilities have had great progress。but，In the overall climate warming background，Extreme weather not only“linger”，May even“Be further intensified”，We need to do and many。

    ６月２８日，四川省宁南县白鹤滩镇矮子沟遭受局部特大暴雨，降水引发的特大山洪泥石流灾害造成２０人失踪、２０人遇难；８月１０日，浙江省舟山市岱山县长涂镇沈家坑水库发生坍塌，洪水伴随着泥石流席卷下游，造成１１人死亡、２７人受伤……

    On June 28,，Sichuan province NingNaXian white crane beach town dwarf groove suffer from local severe storms，Rainfall triggered mountain torrents disasters caused mudslides super 20 people are missing、20 people were killed；August 10,，Zhejiang zhoushan daishan county magistrate coating town shenyang pit reservoir may collapse，The flood swept downstream with debris flow，11 deaths caused by、27 people were injured...

    惨痛的现实提醒我们，尽管近些年我国不断加大防洪体系建设力度，大江大河日渐安澜，但中小河流防洪能力弱、小型水库病险率高依然是突出隐患。“十二五”期间，我国需要完成５０００多条中小河流重点河段的治理任务，需要治理的河长达６万多公里。此外，目前全国仍有４万多座小型水库不同程度存在病险问题，已完成除险加固的水库也有相当一部分尚未经过大洪水的考验。

    Painful reality remind us，Although in recent years our country constantly increase flood control system construction force，Large rivers is calm，But small and medium-sized river flood control ability weak、Small reservoir seepage path rate is still outstanding hidden trouble。“1025”period，The country needs completed more than 5000 small and medium-sized rivers key section of the management tasks，Need to management of the river is over 60000 kilometers。In addition，The whole country at present there are still more than 40000 small reservoir seepage path problem in some degree，Has completed the reservoir dam reinforcement also has quite part of has not yet been flood test。

    与此同时，极端天气带来的城市内涝问题日益凸显。当越来越多的大中城市热衷于建设地面上的高楼大厦时，却有意无意忽略了深埋地下的城市排水系统、地下管网的同步建设，导致一下雨就“全城看海”，甚至因道路积水、井盖被冲危及群众生命。“下水道是城市的良心”，必须补齐城市排水系统建设这块短板，提高城市防洪排涝能力，才能真正让人民安居乐业。

    meanwhile，Extreme weather brought urban waterlogging problems increasingly prominent。When more and more large and medium-sized cities on the ground to construction of the buildings，Intentionally or unintentionally overlooked is the deep underground city drainage system、The underground pipe network synchronization construction，Lead to a it rains“The city to see the sea”，Even for road water、Manhole covers are washed to endanger the lives。“The sewer is the city conscience”，Must polishing urban drainage system construction the short plate，Improve the urban flood control drainage capability，Can we truly let the people live and work in peace and contentment。

    对于公众来说，提高应对极端天气的危机意识也迫在眉睫。综观近年来的一些极端天气伤亡案例，有不少是缺少危机意识和防御知识造成的。例如，部分群众在接到预警信号后依然存在侥幸心理，没有及时转移或采取防御措施；一些地方居民侵占河道建房，甚至把房屋建在泄洪区里，一旦危险来临很难及时撤退。

    For public speaking，To improve the extreme weather crisis consciousness also is imminent。Synoptic in recent years some of the extreme weather casualty cases，There are many is the lack of crisis consciousness and defense caused by knowledge。For example，Part of the masses in the received early warning signal after still exist fluke mind，No timely transfer or to take defensive measures；Some local residents occupy river house，Even the houses built on the flood discharge area，Once the approaching danger in time is difficult to retreat。

    极端天气及其带来的灾害事关人民群众生产生活和生命财产安全，容不得半点马虎和松懈。要把形势估计得更严峻些，把困难估计地更充分些，筑牢防汛抗洪的基石，才能给人民群众更多的安全保障。

    Extreme weather and bring disaster main issue related to people's production and life and safety of lives and property，Let not the least bit and careless and relax。To estimate the situation more severe some，The hard to estimate to more fully some，Build up the foundation of flood control and flood fighting，Can give people more security。