新闻分析：“双台风”有三“怪” “海葵”又来防御不可松 News analysis：“Double typhoon”There are three“blame” “Sea anemone”And to defense not loose

    新华社上海８月３日电（记者 李荣）“苏拉”、“达维”双台风已分别在福建和江苏登陆，强度减弱，在内陆地区还将产生一定影响。记者采访了中国气象局上海台风研究所的专家，了解到此次“双台风”具备三个“怪”，值得认真研究，以利于今后对台风路径、强度的判断。此外，双台风未走，新台风“海葵”又已生成，沿海防御千万不可松。

    Shanghai, aug. 3（Reporter LiRong）“sura”、“davey”Double the typhoon to have respectively in fujian and jiangsu landed，Intensity is abate，In the inland areas will produce certain effect。The reporter interviewed Shanghai institute of China meteorological administration typhoon experts，To understand the“Double typhoon”Have three“blame”，Deserves serious research，For future path to the typhoon、Strength judgment。In addition，Double typhoon did not go，New typhoon“Sea anemone”And has generated，Coastal defense never loose。

    中国气象局上海台风研究所专家徐明近期持续跟踪“双台风”的动向。他一连对记者说了三个“怪”：

    The China meteorological administration institute Shanghai typhoon experts sustained recent declining to track“Double typhoon”trend。He had said to reporters to three“blame”：

    第一个“怪”是：台风“苏拉”和“达维”几乎同时生成，又在差不多的时间在我国华东沿海登陆，这在历史上是非常少见的。但两者在“尺寸、脾气”和路径上又很不相同。“苏拉”“个头大”，“达维”“个头小”；“苏拉”是“慢性子”，移速较慢，悠悠然；“达维”性子急，移速快，急匆匆。两者生成时距离相差２０００多公里，后来的行进路径也保持着距离。所以严格说来，还谈不上是相互作用的“双台风”。

    The first“blame”is：The typhoon“sura”and“davey”Generated almost，And in the time of east China in our country almost coastal landing，In history that is very, very rare。But both in“size、temper”And on the path and it's not the same。“sura”“a”，“davey”“'s smaller”；“sura”is“Slow coach”，Move slower speed，YouYouRan；“davey”Temperament urgent，Move speed fast，hurried。When both are generated from more than 2000 kilometers，Later travel route keeping his distance。So strictly speaking，Is no interaction“Double typhoon”。

    第二个“怪”是：“达维”这样的“小个子”台风，又处在高纬度的行进路线上，后期强度反而增强了。开始的时候，全球多家机构的数值预报都对“达维”“有点低估”，报得比较“轻”，甚至认为它很快就会慢慢消失。但是没想到，实际情况是，“达维”没有像想象中的那样“弱”下去，反而强度逐渐增强，成为一个“小而强”的台风。

    The second“blame”is：“davey”this“little”The typhoon，And in the path of higher latitudes，Post strength served only to strengthen。At the start of the，Global many domestic organizations to the numerical prediction“davey”“A little underestimate”，Reported in comparison“light”，Even think it will soon disappear slowly。But didn't think，Actual situation is，“davey”Not as imagined“weak”down，But strength gradually strengthened，Become a“Small and strong”typhoon。

    第三个“怪”是：“苏拉”这个“大个子”台风，一开始“气势汹汹”，让人看着“不敢怠慢”。但是它登陆台湾后，一直打转，转悠了半天，才继续向华东沿海靠近。到了２日，强度却开始减弱了。本来估计它在华东登陆时将是台风级别，实际是强热带风暴的等级。与“达维”相反，看着强的，反而弱了。

    The third“blame”is：“sura”the“big”The typhoon，first“aggressive”，Let a person look at“Can't snub”。But after it landed in Taiwan，Has been swirling，Hover around half a day，Just continue to the east coast near。The 2,，Strength but began to shake。Originally estimated it landed in east China will be the typhoon level，The actual is strong tropical storm level。and“davey”instead，Looked at strong，But weak。

    对于台风的“扎堆”效应，徐明的解释是，从历史资料来看，台风的发生有一种“间歇性”，有时比较集中，有时比较“沉寂”，是阵发状的。从今年的情况来看，６月份之前台风比较少，６月份较多，７月初较少，７月底到现在８月初，又连着来了。

    For the typhoon“stick”effect，The explanation is declining，From the historical material and see，The typhoon occurs with a“intermittent”，Sometimes more concentrated，Sometimes more“silence”，Is array of hair record。From this year's situation，Six months before the typhoon is less，June more，Early July, less，At the end of July to now early August，And connecting to the。

    专家提醒，要防备“双台风”变成“三台风”。根据最新监测，今年第１１号热带风暴“海葵”已于３日８时在日本冲绳县东偏南方约１３６０公里的西北太平洋洋面上生成，中心附近最大风力有８级，中心最低气压为１００２百帕。预计“海葵”将以每小时２０至２５公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度逐渐加强。未来３天暂对我国近海海域无影响。

    Experts remind，To guard against“Double typhoon”into“Three typhoon”。According to the latest monitoring，No. 11 tropical storm this year“Sea anemone”Already in 3, at 8 in Japan ChongShengXian partial about 1360 km south east of the northwest Pacific Ocean waters form，Maximum sustained winds near the center has eight level，Center for minimum pressure 100200 mpa。Is expected to“Sea anemone”Will be on a per hour 20 to 25 kilometers speed to the north west direction，Strength gradually strengthen。For the next three days of China's coastal waters of no effect。

    目前，“苏拉”和“达维”还在我国内陆未消失，新台风“海葵”又来。徐明说，两个在陆上，一个在海上，可以说是“三台风”，台风防御体系千万不可松劲。

    At present，“sura”and“davey”Also in China inland not disappear，New typhoon“Sea anemone”And to。Declining to say，Two in the land，A in the sea，Can say is“Three typhoon”，The typhoon defense system never slacken off。