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新闻分析:我国外贸增速大幅回落 转型迫在眉睫--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-11
新华社北京8月10日电(记者王优玲、王希、岳瑞芳)海关总署10日发布的数据显示,7月份我国进出口总值3287.3亿美元,同比增长2.7%,其中出口增长仅为1%,进口增长4.7%。专家表示,7月份外贸增速低于预期,外需形势难有明显好转,我国外贸面临压力较大,外贸转型迫在眉睫。
Beijing August 10 (Reuters)(Reporter WangYouLing、WangXi、YueRuiFang)Promulgated by the general administration of customs and the data shows,In July, China import and export worth $328.73 billion,Year-on-year growth of 2.7%,Including export growth is only 1%,Imports rose 4.7%。Experts say,In July, the foreign trade growth rate lower than expected,To have a foreign demand situation improved obviously,Our country foreign trade to face pressure great,The transformation of foreign trade is imminent。
7月份外贸增速大幅回落 Foreign trade growth dropped sharply in July
“7月份我国外贸数据不是很好,出口增幅下降较大,一方面由于去年同期基数较高,但主要还是因为外需疲弱,我国外贸出口任务重、压力大。”海关总署综合统计司司长郑跃声说。
“In July, China's trade data is not very good,Export growth dropped greatly,On the one hand because of the same period last year high base,But largely because of the weak economy,Our export task、Pressure big。”The general administration of customs of comprehensive statistics of priests ZhengYueSheng said。
经过季节调整法调整后,7月份我国进出口、出口和进口的同比增长速度分别为1.4%、1.6%和1.2%。数据显示,我国7月出口增幅远低于6月的11.3%,进口增幅也低于6月的6.3%。
After a season DiaoZhengFa after adjustment,In July, China import and export、Exports and imports are 1.4% year-on-year growth rate、1.6% and 1.2%。Data shows,July export growth in our country is far lower than the 11.3% in the month of June,Import growth well below 6.3% in the month of June。
对于7月份我国出口增幅明显回落,交通银行金融研究中心王宇雯分析说,美国经济复苏持续放缓不利于中国出口增长。二季度美国GDP同比最新统计值下滑至1.5%,7月ISM制造业PMI仅为49.8,连续两个月处于50以下,其中进口细项指数大降3个点至50.5,对我国出口产生了直接的冲击。
In July China's export growth dropped significantly,Traffic bank financial research center WangYuWen analysis said,The United States economic recovery continued slowdown against China's export growth。The second quarter GDP compared to the latest statistics value to 1.5%,July ISM manufacturing PMI was only 49.8,For two months in under 50,Which import items index down 3 points to 50.5,To our export produced a direct impact。
王宇雯说,我国沿海传统发达地区出口成本上升,部分劳动力密集型产业出现外迁,导致传统出口集中地区增速明显放缓。再加上近期中国与欧美等发达国家、与巴西等新兴市场国家贸易摩擦全面增加,出口增长困难较大。
WangYuWen said,China's coastal developed areas in the traditional export cost rise,Part of the labor intensive industry appear moved outside,Traditional export concentration area in growth slowed sharply。Coupled with the recent China and Europe and the United States and other developed countries、And Brazil emerging market countries trade friction overall increase,Export growth is difficult。
外贸增长短期内难有改观 Foreign trade growth short-term NaNan have changed
据海关统计,1至7月,我国进出口总值21683.7亿美元,同比增长7.1%。其中,出口11312.4亿美元,增长7.8%;进口10371.3亿美元,增长6.4%。
According to customs statistics,1 to July,$2.16837 trillion worth of import and export of our country,Year-on-year growth of 7.1%。Among them,Export $1.13124 trillion,7.8% increase;Imported 1.03713 trillion us dollars,6.4% increase。
商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长高虎城10日在国新办发布会上回答提问时说,今年上半年我国贸易进出口是自2009年以来增长速度最低的一个时期,其中一个主要的原因是全球经济的下行,复苏缓慢,最严重的地区就是欧洲。
The ministry of commerce international trade negotiators and deputy minister gao hucheng 10, in new countries do conference said answering questions,In the first half of this year in import and export trade since 2009, was one of the lowest growth period,One of the main reasons is the global economy to the downside,Slow recovery,The most serious areas is Europe。
关于进出口贸易增长所面临的下行压力,高虎城说,从外需看,国外市场有些变化是年初没有预料到的,例如欧洲主权债务危机的进一步恶化。他认为,国外市场的变化和国际市场大宗商品价格的变化,会直接影响下半年进出口发展的态势。
On the import and export trade growth downward pressure on the face,Gao hucheng says,Now see from,Foreign markets early some changes were unexpected,Such as the European sovereign debt crisis worse。He thinks,The change of the market and international market abroad commodity price changes,Will directly influence the import and export of the second half of the development of the situation。
数据显示,1至7月,中欧双边贸易下降0.9%;中美双边贸易增长10.5%。中国与东盟双边贸易总值增长9%,与俄罗斯和巴西双边贸易总值分别增长17.7%和10.3%。
Data shows,1 to July,The bilateral trade fell 0.9%;Bilateral trade growth rate of 10.5%。China and asean bilateral trade product growth of 9%,And Russia and Brazil bilateral trade value up by 17.7% and 10.3% respectively。
分析人士普遍预计,今年8月出口同比可能低位趋稳。从历史数据看,8月份的出口规模往往比7月份略有回落,考虑到今年国际经济复苏形势仍较为严峻,短期内汇率、劳动力成本仍趋上行,最低工资标准不断提升,汇率升值速度虽放缓,但累计升值仍在增加,而中国与其他国家的贸易争端也在增多,短期内出口状况仍不容乐观。
Analysts widely expected,August exports may be low compared to stabilise。From the historical data to see,August exports scale than July fell back slightly often,Considering the international economic recovery this year still more serious situation,Exchange rate in the short term、Labor costs are still is up,Minimum wage standard rise,Exchange rate appreciation speed is slow,But the cumulative appreciation also increased,China and other countries in the trade dispute also increase,The short term export situation is still not optimistic。
外贸转型迫在眉睫 The transformation of foreign trade is imminent
国家发展改革委学术委员会秘书长张燕生认为,今年我国外贸进出口表现不佳,外贸企业没有长期稳定的预期,无订单、无工人,缺乏技术来源,这表明我国经济增长的外向型模式和粗放低成本竞争已经走到尽头,外贸形势不容乐观,外贸必须实现脱胎换骨的转型。
The national development and reform commission academic committee secretary general ZhangYanSheng think,This year our country foreign trade import and export to poor performance,Foreign trade enterprise has no long-term stable expectations,No order、No workers,Lack of technical sources,This shows that the Chinese economic growth of the export-oriented model and extensive low cost competition has come to an end,Foreign trade situation is not optimistic,Foreign trade must realize the transformation of changed forever。
商务部最近在与企业的接触和调查当中发现,我国外贸企业正在下很大力气转变发展方式和调整结构,包括研发新产品、开拓新市场、提高产品附加值和产品科技含量等,未来仍有有很大的发展潜力。
The ministry of commerce recently with enterprise contact and investigation found,China's foreign trade enterprise is a strength and the adjustment of the structure change development way,Including the r&d of new products、Developing new markets、Improving the added value of the products and product technology content, etc,The future there are still has great potential for growth。
海关数据显示,在出口商品中,我国机电产品出口增长较快。1至7月,我国机电产品出口6491亿美元,增长9.1%,较同期外贸出口总体增速高1.3个百分点,占出口总值的57.4%。同期,服装出口829.3亿美元,下降0.2%;纺织品544.7亿美元,下降0.2%;鞋类256.9亿美元,增长9.4%。
The customs data shows,In the export commodities,Our country exports of mechanical and electronic products is growing faster。1 to July,Mechanical and electronic products in China exported 649.1 billion dollars,9.1% increase,The same period is foreign trade export growth of overall 1.3% higher,Exports account for 57.4% of the total。Over the same period,Clothing export $82.93 billion,Down 0.2%;Textile $54.47 billion,Down 0.2%;Footwear $25.69 billion,9.4% increase。
高虎城说,商务部将在下半年继续保持外贸政策的稳定,不断改善政府服务,提高贸易便利化,支持企业进一步改善经营、扩大对外经营业务和市场开拓,争取实现今年进出口增长10%左右的目标。
Gao hucheng says,In the second half of the ministry of commerce will continue to maintain the stability of the foreign trade policy,Continuously improve the government service,Improve the trade facilitation,Support enterprise and further improve the management、Expand the business management and market development,Realize the import and export growth this year to around 10% of the target。
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