新华社上海８月６日电（记者李荣）台风“苏拉”、“达维”前脚刚走，今年第１１号强热带风暴“海葵”即将接踵而至。在短短的７天左右时间内，“三台风”相继扑向我国华东沿海，是比较少见的。气象部门说，“海葵”目前移速慢，甚至少动，可能在华东地区的滞留时间较长，须加强防范。

    Shanghai on August 6 (Reuters)（Reporter LiRong）The typhoon“sura”、“davey”Your front foot just walked，No. 11 strong tropical storm this year“Sea anemone”Will follow。In just seven days or so in time，“Three typhoon”Have pounced on east coast in our country，Is rare。Meteorological department said，“Sea anemone”Now move speed slow，Even less dynamic，May be in east area of retention time is long，Must strengthen prevent。

    据上海市气象局专家的分析，“海葵”具备一些明显的特点：首先是移动速度变化较大。刚生成时移动很快，约每小时３０公里；５日起移动明显减慢，目前移速仅为每小时１５公里。６日下午有一段时间，甚至不动、少动。

    According to Shanghai meteorological administration expert analysis，“Sea anemone”Have some obvious characteristics：First is the movement speed changes greatly。Just created mobile soon，About 30 km per hour；5 day significantly slow moving，Now move speed is only 15 km per hour。6 th at one time，Don't even move、Less dynamic。

    其次是结构的变化大。一开始，非对称结构明显，东侧、南侧的云带发展强，北侧、西侧比较弱。至６日傍晚，结构正在趋向对称，北侧、西侧云带的发展也在加强。

    Second is the change of the structure。first，Asymmetric structure is obvious，east、To the south of the clouds with strong development，north、Is weak in the west。To six in the evening,，Symmetrical structure is trend，north、With the development of the west side clouds in strengthening。

    再次是环境条件复杂。目前副热带高压处于减弱阶段，高纬度地带又有槽脊移动，对副热带高压的位置有显著影响。这些因素都使得“海葵”在未来路径和强度上存在不确定性。从目前的情况来判断，海表温度、海洋热容量和高空风切变都有利于“海葵”继续加强，预计登陆时风力可达１１至１２级，而且是在其“鼎盛期”登陆。

    Once again, is complex environment conditions。At present in the subtropical high weakened stage，Zone and high ridge mobile groove，The location of the subtropical high to have a significant influence。These factors are made“Sea anemone”In the future on the path and the strength of the uncertainties。From the present situation of the judge，Surface temperature、Ocean heat capacity and high wind shear benefits“Sea anemone”Continue to strengthen，Landing is expected to wind of 11 to 12，And it is in its“follows”landing。

    最后，“海葵”的影响持续时间可能较长。由于大陆高压东移，引导气流由偏东转为东南，“海葵”登陆后有可能少动或向偏北方向移动，在华东地区滞留的时间较长，浙江、江苏、上海等地部分地区的降雨估计会在３天左右。

    finally，“Sea anemone”Last time the influence of may is long。Since the mainland high pressure towards the east，Guide to east southeast flow is partial，“Sea anemone”After landing may be less or move northward movement，In the east China area of retention time is long，zhejiang、jiangsu、Shanghai and other parts of the rainfall estimation in 3 days or so will。

    据相关资料显示，今年７月份以前，生成并登陆我国的台风较少。进入７月中旬以后，西北太平洋热带气旋异常活跃。在７月１６日至８月３日短短１８天内，连续生成５个热带气旋及台风，其中３个登陆我国并造成影响。目前，“海葵”又即将登陆。据了解，未来还将有新的热带气旋生成。当前的台风活动，呈多发、频发、连发的态势，防汛防台风形势异常严峻。

    According to relevant data shows，Before July this year，To generate and the less the typhoon in China。In mid-july after，The Pacific northwest tropical cyclone flourish。On July 16, to August 3, just 18 days，Continuous generation five tropical cyclone and typhoon，3 of them in China and the influence。At present，“Sea anemone”And is about to land。According to understand，The future will also have a new tropical cyclone is generated。The current typhoon activities，Is multiple、frequent、Balls per the situation，Flood control and typhoon situation stiffer。

    上海市气象部门说，受“海葵”风雨的影响，预计上海沿海风暴潮增水７０至１４０厘米，靠近杭州湾沿岸的奉贤、金山和浦东南部等地应特别关注海塘和防汛墙的安全。“海葵”登陆后，对太湖流域的风雨影响持续时间较长，其中东部和南部的雨量可能较大，可能导致太湖水位升高，甚至超过警戒水位，须严加防范。

    Shanghai meteorological department said，by“Sea anemone”The effect of wind and rain，Shanghai is expected to increase water 70 coastal storm surge to 140 cm，Close to hangzhou bay coast of fengxian、Golden hill and southern pudong, should be adopted for special attention to the safety of flood control and wall。“Sea anemone”After landing，The storm of the effect of tai lake basin continues for a long time，One of the east and south now may be more rainfall，May lead to higher water in taihu lake，Even more than the warning level，Must be under strict guard against。