新华社北京７月３１日电 二季度中经产业景气指数日前发布，结果表明，二季度各产业景气度与上季相比出现不同程度回落，但回落幅度明显收窄，表明在稳增长相关政策的支撑下，实体经济在缓慢回落中趋稳的总体态势基本确立。

    Beijing, July 31, in second quarter boom index to released，The results show that，The boom of the industry in the second quarter compared with last quarter in different degree fall back，But fell obviously narrow range，In steady growth policies that the support，The entity economy in slow fall in the overall situation stabilised basically established。

    今年二季度，中经工业景气指数为９５．４点，较上季回落１．５点，继续处于下行过程，但降幅较上季度收窄１．４点。在构成中经工业景气指数的６项指标中，投资增速止跌回暖，出口增长基本持平，企业利润、销售、就业增速降幅均有所收窄，仅税收显著回落。

    In the second quarter of this year，In industrial boom index of 95.4 points，A season on dropped 1.5 points，To continue in descending process，But compared to the previous quarter by narrow 1.4 points。In the formation of industrial confidence in the 6 indexes，Investment growth reason thaw，Export growth flat，Corporate profits、sales、Jobs growth have been adopted by narrow，Tax only significant fall back。

    对二季度１１个产业的监测显示，除家电业和乳制品业景气度企稳外，煤炭、电力、石油、化工、钢铁、水泥、有色金属、装备、服装等９个产业的景气度均出现下滑，但回落幅度有限。其中，电力、石油、钢铁、装备制造、水泥、服装６个产业的景气指数降幅在０．２点至０．３点之间，煤炭、化工、有色金属３个产业的景气指数降幅在０．９点至１．３点之间。

    In the second quarter to 11 industry monitoring display，In addition to home appliances and dairy industry stabilising the boom of outside，coal、power、oil、chemical、steel、cement、Non-ferrous metal、equipment、Clothing and nine of the industry boom of all declined，But fell back range is limited。Among them，power、oil、steel、Equipment manufacturing、cement、Clothing six industry boom index fell by 0.2 points to 0.3 points in between，coal、chemical、Non-ferrous metal three industry boom index fell by 0.9 points to 1.3 points in between。

    据了解，这一指数是由经济日报社中经产业景气指数研究中心和国家统计局中国经济景气监测中心共同研究编制的，按季度发布。

    According to understand，The index is by the economic daily in boom index research center and the national bureau of statistics China's economic prosperity monitoring center of common research，Released on a quarterly basis。

    指数编制方认为，产业景气度走势逐步趋稳，很大程度上得益于稳增长政策因素的支撑。如果剔除政策等随机因素，二季度产业景气指数普遍呈明显下行趋势，且降幅加大。

    Index of that party，The boom of industry trend gradually stabilised，A large extent benefited from the steady growth of the support of policy factors。If eliminate random factors such as policy，In the second quarter of boom index generally show clear down the trend，And increased by。

    指数编制方分析认为，尽管当前工业景气度仍面临下行压力，但由于我国经济的基本面依然良好，有不少有利条件和积极因素，企业家的信心增强，市场预期在改善，下半年产业经济预计将企稳回升。

    Index analysis of that party，Although the current boom of industry still face downward pressure，But because China's economic fundamentals are still good，There are many favorable conditions and the positive factors，Entrepreneurs as confidence，In the market is expected to improve，The second half of the industrial economy is expected to be stabilising picks up。

    这一判断首先是基于对就业形势的分析。二季度，工业用工同比增长２．５％，多数产业用工均有不同程度增长。

    This judgment is first based on the analysis of the employment situation。In the second quarter of，Industrial labor year-on-year growth of 2.5%，Most industry labor all has different rate increase。

    其次，市场需求呈稳中有升态势，下半年拉动经济增长的动力趋强。上半年，国家出台了一系列促进消费的积极举措，政策效应将在下半年进一步显现；在稳增长的政策导向下，下半年投资平稳增长可以预期；从出口看，二季度工业出口同比增长７．２％，环比增长８８．８％，实现由负转正。尽管欧盟需求不振，但未来拓展包括新兴市场在内的外部市场仍有机遇。

    second，The market demand is better progressly situation，The second half of the power of the drive economic growth is strong。In the first half，The country has issued a series of positive measures to stimulate consumption，Policy effect will appear in the second half of further；In the policy guidance of steady growth，The second half of steady growth of investment can be expected；Look from export，In the second quarter of industrial export year-on-year growth of 7.2%，Annulus comparing growth of 88.8%，Achieved by negative becomes。Although the eu demand dynamics，But the future development including the emerging markets, external market still has the opportunity。

    第三，上游行业需求下降，能源和基础原材料产品价格明显回落，这在一定程度可缓解下游行业的成本压力，并有利于高耗能行业加速整合与调整、促进节能减排。

    The third，The upstream industry needs decline，Energy and raw materials prices based products apparent，This, to a certain degree can alleviate the downstream industry cost pressure，And to facilitate the integration and adjust hing energy-consuming profession speed up、Promote energy conservation and emission reduction。

    指数编制方同时指出，下半年，在着力稳增长的过程中，一方面要适度加大政策预调微调的力度，巩固工业经济探底回升态势；另一方面要充分考虑到目前很多制造业行业产能过剩的现实，努力推进结构调整和产业升级，避免借稳增长之名对本已过剩的产能形成新一轮投资，在短期化解需求压力的情况下对未来经济积累更大的风险。

    Index of party also pointed out，The second half，In the process of growth to stability，On the one hand to moderate strengthening policy presetters fine-tune the strength，Consolidated industrial economic agents back the trend；On the other hand we should fully consider at present a lot of manufacturing industry excess capacity of reality，To promote the upgrading of the industrial structure adjustment and，Avoid by the name of the firm growth of excess capacity form this has a new round of investment，In the short term, dissolve the demand to the pressure of future economic accumulate more risk。