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张海:解读2012中国高端饭店口碑排行榜--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2013-04-29

  我对这个报告做一个简单的描述,一块是对报告进行一个简单的介绍,因为报告每一位朋友手上已经有了,排行榜的揭晓情况我给做一个简单的介绍,主要是这个研究报告分了五个方面,一个是顾客满意度的概念,再一个就是顾客满意度测量方式的分析,另外就是数据的采集,再一个就是我们建模,第五指数计算,一是五块。

I do a simple description on this report,A block is a simple introduction of the report,Because the report every one of my friends already have,List out of my to do a simple introduction,Is mainly the study divided the five aspects,One is the concept of customer satisfaction,Is a customer satisfaction measurement methods of analysis,Another is data collection,Another is our model,The fifth index calculation,A is five pieces.

  刚才戴院长已经对报告解读的很到位了,我顺着往下说。满意度概念不说了,也就是说大家都知道什么是优质服务?能满足或者超过顾客期望的服务就是优质服务,那么顾客满意度也就是一种顾客感觉的状态,他主要要跟他的期望进行一个对比。我们这里讲的满意不仅仅是指直观的满意服务技能、服务质量、服务态度、服务价格这些方面的满意,更深层次的就是说跟顾客的需求和期望吻合的程度,这里面打一个比方,就像大家在商店买鞋,服务员态度也很好,帮你试鞋子的技能也很到位,价格你也看上了,但是鞋子不合脚,那对这个产品可能就不满意。再换一个角度举个例子,原来我有一些老同事特别爱到重庆饭店去吃饭,我去了好几回感觉到他不是冲着重庆饭店的服务技能、服务态度,也不是冲着人家的价格品种去的,而是因为这些同时原来在四川呆过,他在那儿找到他曾经的味道,这是他要期望的味道。我们这里的满意也是取决于这个意义上的满意,顾客满意的情况好与不好最主要是跟他自己体验以后感知以后的产品与之前的期望比较之后的体验。

Just wear dean has to report interpretation is in place,I follow the go ahead.Don't say the satisfaction concept,That is to say, everyone knows what is good service?Can meet or exceed customer expectations of service is the high quality service,So customer satisfaction is the state of a customer feeling,He main to expect a comparison with him.We speak here refers to not just intuitive satisfied with their service skills/The quality of service/Service attitude/These aspects of satisfaction,At a deeper level that is with the customer's needs and expectations,It made a comparison,As you buy shoes in the shop,The waiter attitude is very good also,Skills to help you try shoes also very in position,The price also have a crush on you,But the shoes don't fit me,That may not be satisfied with this product.In another Angle, for example,Originally I have some of his old workmates special love to the chongqing hotel to have a meal,I went to several times feel he is not at the chongqing hotel service skills/Service attitude,Not at people varieties to the price,But because these originally lived in sichuan at the same time,He found he was there,This is to expect the taste of him.Our satisfaction is also depends on the sense of satisfaction,Customer satisfaction is good or bad after the main is with his own experience, perception of the product compared with the prior expectations after the experience.

  测量方式分两大类,一类是美国学家豪耐尔提出来的CSI计量模型,主要用指标建立的模型,之后瑞典也建立了顾客满意度模型,在中国其实也有一个CCSI模型主要是基于因果关系对满意度的测量。饭店目前有三种,前两种可以说这是饭店自个儿测评经常用的一个办法,这种办法有什么缺陷?第一种办法没有统计到虽然满意但是没表达出来,所以这个就会产生一种误差。第二,有的人没有去投诉,但是他实际上是不满意的,但是在他第二个公式里面就会体现成是满意的。第三个就是戴院长说的样本的数量性,问卷的视角比较窄。我们这次拿出来的首先就是刚才戴院长讲的用网络点击替代传统的问卷,这是在数据的采纳上,然后酌情用综合评价的模糊数学的方式进行应用,这个办法可以高效度全国各类型的饭店实施很快的满意度测评。我们这次的测评完全基于网络点评对顾客满意度的评价,点评数据实际上是评价的一个基础,项目组采纳慧评网所进行的原始数据的采集和语音分析数据作为研究基础,这个和中国旅游研究院和去哪儿网合作的模式是基本上是一样的。

Measuring way is divided into two broad categories,Class was put forward by American historian hao nair CSI measurement model,Mainly use index model is established,After the Swedish customer satisfaction model is established,In China there are a CCSI model is mainly based on the causality of satisfaction measurement.There are three kinds of hotel,First two could say that this is their hotel assessment often use a method,This way, what's the defect?The first kind of way is not counted although satisfaction but have not expressed,So this will produce an error.In the second,Some people didn't go to complain,But in fact he is not satisfied,But in his second formula will reflect to be satisfactory.The third is wearing the dean said the number of samples,The narrow questionnaire's point of view.We take out the first is to wear dean just said using the Internet click replace traditional questionnaire,This is on the adoption of data,Then take into consideration the use of fuzzy mathematics comprehensive evaluation method,This method can implement efficient degree of the various types of hotel satisfaction evaluation soon.We review based on the network for the measurement of customer satisfaction evaluation,Review data is actually a basis of evaluation,Hui evaluation network adopted the item analysis of original data collection and voice data as the research basis,Where the China tourism academy and network cooperation mode is essentially the same.

  这个指标体系是以用户的角度来确立饭店业满意度指标,往往搞问卷调查实际上是一种专家的意见设置哪些项目。还有宾客意见书,它设置的项目,这个意见书里面谈过13项,饭店提出了总体让你评价很满意、很不满意、满意,这里面谈到你有没有感受到热情的欢迎,它设置了12个体系,这也是产品提供者站在你的角度设置。用户也可能他表达的角度也可能在这12个里面,也可能不在12个里面,这次设立评价指标体系就是要站在用户的指标体系上来做文章。权重系数跟指标体系特别是一级因子的设定,多少项我们是根据你在网络上面的数量,谁最高就把谁放在这方面来设置。下来你评价就有一个权重系数,哪些方面的权重比较大一点,以往原来我这个机构秘书长经常干的,我们学术界的学者做课题的时候他拿着指标,你给我找几个人来,我把这个给大家梳理一下意见,弄几个饭店总经理来大家打分,打完分一平均得到一个各个指标的权重系数。这次的测评主要是用点评的评度,你对什么问题最多你的权重系数应该最大。第三个,主要是采取了这种方式一个是省时省力对全国的饭店满意度调查,再一个问卷里面就是样本少带来的时间。最近我正看《快思与慢想》,里面对样本提到赌徒的谬误,你前面赌六次都输了第七次就有可能赢,有点像咱们农村生了六个女孩第七个肯定是男孩,但是小样本是这样的情况,但是大样本,样本一大男女比例几乎是这样接近。就从海量的数据上来讲,也要比问卷调查带来的更加准确。这是我们自己感觉有不同的好处。那么我们大概分了两种,高端酒店按照戴院当时的要求,我们开始五星挂牌的,还有四星挂牌的,当时戴院长的意见心情舒服一些,到国外星的概念不太容易跟国际接轨。这次我们一类就是这种情况,正式国家旅游局颁牌挂牌的五星级饭店,第二种是OTA你在OTA上你自己称你是四星级,你用四星级的价格去揽客,用四星级的招牌去揽。这次主要是不含港澳台,为什么时间跨度八年?最主要我们第一次,因为我们想要把评度就是大家说的权重系数设定究竟个人关注什么,这个数据量越大,我们后面对于权重的系数的计算就增加详细。大家也看到这个点评来源,目前最主流的这六家我们都采集到了。根据慧评讲的,覆盖了网上点评量的96%,同样对OTA。这里面有一个语音分析技术,利用计算机对自然语言的形态,对网络点评进行理解和分析,自动抽取顾客在点评中针对饭店的各个方面他的看法和情感态度,然后用自然语言描述的用户点评转化为结构化的情感数据库,设置标准也是跟通常一样,这个推荐意见表里面也是五级,但是有的说这里面名字叫很不满意,有的地方叫非常不满意,咱们大概都是这五个级。打个比方,这是一段原始的评论,前天他住的这家饭店交通出行还算比较方便,周边环境比较好,到了饭店的时候大堂接待非常专业,服务生笑容亲切,网速一般,浴室倒是挺大就是隔音太差。我们可以截取这几个判断,把这几个片断设置了几个分析的评度,分析出满意不满意的结果。这是举一个例子说明原理。

To establish the index system is the user's point of view hotel satisfaction index,Tend to make questionnaire survey, in fact, a kind of experts set up which items.Opinions and guests,It set up the project,This opinion about 13 items,Hotel overall evaluation you are satisfied are put forward/Very not happy/Satisfied with the,It talked about did you feel the warm welcome,It set up the system of 12,This is also the product provider Settings on your perspective.Users may express his point of view may also be in the 12,May is not in 12,This time to set up the evaluation index system is to stand in the user's index system to come up.Weight coefficient and index system, especially the setting of primary factor,How many items we are according to your number on the network,Who took the highest on this aspect.You have a weight coefficient,What aspects of the weight is a bit bigger,Originally I the past institutions secretary often dry,Our academic scholars do topics when he took the index,You give me find a few people come,I give you comb the opinion,Get a few hotel general manager to you,Follow up points a averaging a weight coefficient of each index.This assessment is primarily with comments on review,Anything for you the most you should weight coefficient of the biggest.The third,One is mainly adopted this way save time and effort to the national restaurant satisfaction survey,Again a sample questionnaire there is little time.Recently I was watching[Fast and slow to],Facing the samples mentioned in the gambler's fallacy,In front of you wager lost six times are likely to win for the seventh time,A bit like our country gave birth to six girls seventh must be boy,But it is the case of small sample,But the big sample,Sample is a sex ratio almost as close.Will tell from vast amounts of data,More accurate than the questionnaire survey.This is that we feel have different benefits.So we probably points two kinds,High-end hotels according to the requirements of wear school at that time,We can start a listing on the five-star,There are four listed,Dean was wearing comfortable mood,To the concept of alien countries is not so easy to follow international standards.This time, we kind of is this kind of situation,Officially awarded by China national tourism administration listed five-star hotel,The second is on OTA OTA you yourself said you are four star,You use four-star price to USES,With four star signs to LAN.This major is excluding Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan,Why time span eight years?The main we for the first time,Because we want to put the evaluation degree is what you said what personal attention weight coefficient setting,That the greater the amount of data,Behind us for the weight coefficient of the calculation increases in detail.You also see the reviews,At present the most mainstream of the six home we had gathered.According to hui commented,Covers 96% of the online reviews,Same for OTA.There's a voice analysis technology,Using the computer form of natural language,Understanding and analysis of online comments,Automatically extract customers in reviews on all aspects of the hotel he views and emotional attitude,Then use natural language description of user comments into a structured database,Set the standard is same as usually,This recommendation sheet is 5,But some say there name is unhappy with,In some places is very dissatisfied,We are about the five level.The analogy,This is a original comments,The day before yesterday he live in the hotel transportation is more convenient,Surrounding environment is better,When we got to the hotel lobby reception is very professional,The waiter cordial smile,Broadband speed in general,It's quite big bathroom is poor sound insulation.We can intercept these judgments,This a few pieces set several analysis evaluation,Analysis of the satisfaction is not satisfied with the results.This is an example to illustrate principle.

  我们在建立刚才说了建立因子分析指标体系的时候,我们关注的顾客更关注哪些方面,再一个就是网络上顾客选择饭店时他关注哪些,以这两个来确定我们因子指标体系。另外刚才也说了,不是作为饭店提供者的角度来做也就是我们刚才说的每个饭店几乎都有征求意见表,而是把顾客的最终体验效果作为我们评价的依据。前十位现在位置五星级饭店里面没有设计位置,为什么我们把位置放在这儿?因为大量的客人点评都跟位置有关系,而宾馆的位置我特别同意刚才戴院的意见,位置不是一个静态的位置是一个动态的位置。比如你这个饭店在长安街上很好,但是周边情况比如今天游行阅兵修路等等这块位置马上在这一段时间是属于不好的,因为进出不方便,包括你的地理位置是商业人行街,但是在你的门口站了半个多小时打不上车,你这个位置也是属于动态的不是多好的状态。

We are building just said the establishment of index system for factor analysis,We focus on customers pay more attention to what aspects,Another is on the network he focuses on what the customer choice the restaurant,In the two to determine our factor index system.In addition, also said just now,Not as a hotel provider to do or what we said just now for almost every restaurant has a sheet,But the customer finally experience effect is used as the basis for our evaluation.The top ten five-star hotel does not have design position now,Why do we put position here?Because a lot of guests comments are related to location,And the location of the hotel I specially agree with wear school just now,Location is not a static position is a dynamic position.Like you is very good on this hotel on changan street,But around things such as marching parade road, etc. The position immediately today in this period of time is not good,Because of in and out not convenient,Include your location is the commercial pedestrian street,But in the doorway of your stand for half an hour doesn't get on the bus,This position is belong to you dynamic is not good condition.

  我们再看因子的配比。我们为什么要拿八年的,最主要就是对因子的权重系数进行测评,搜集越多样本越大,样本越大得到的权重的测评更加准确。我们对满意度指数的评价首先是进行单一的模糊评价,所谓的单因子模糊评价就是为了确定评价因子集中的每一个因子指标在评价集中段的历史度限量,然后再进行多级的模糊综合评价。我们通过逐层计算可以获得这个饭店的一级因子以及整个饭店在评价级五个档里面的历史度限量。那么指数的计算我们在拿到了整个评价集这五个档的历史度限量以后采取两个原则,一个是最大历史度原则,也就是说选择历史度最大的作为语言指数的表达。第二个就是用加权评分的原则对给每个档属于不同的分值再通过加成求和得到数字化的满意度指数。我们这次的发布从它的实际应用来讲,刚才戴院长说了一个是各个管理机构对提升饭店的品质有一定的实际意义,再一个现在国内浩华每年做统计,自管的饭店、交给国内管理公司管理的饭店、交给国际品牌管理的饭店等等这几种,如果把这几种都拿出来再对比也能对提高饭店的运营质量也有关系。就饭店本身自己的情况下,如果说我们通过这次发布以后我们每个季度如果发布的话,饭店的业主和管理方可以知道一线的服务情况,那么它的波浪式的变化或者稳定的变化都可以有一个客观的参照指标,如果这样来做。这次入围截至到本年度三月份全国挂牌的是758家,我们取了一半就是前三百名纳入这个系数。对国内OTA形势下的4422家饭店也拿了前面的三百名,主要在排名前的放在这个网站。大家看一下,华东地区最高31.35%,西北地区最少,这个不是简单意义上来说华东地区的饭店就管得好,西北地区就管得不好,它是因为我们挂牌五星级饭店的数量本身就少,好像我如果没记错整个宁夏就一家挂牌五星级,整个西安市才十家,新疆倒有17家。再看看直辖市,直辖市排在前面的是上海市,也不能说北京市服务的差,因为确实北京市挂牌五星的数量国家旅游局颁布的,北京市挂牌五星级的数量比上海市挂牌五星级的数量大概多十个左右,但是为什么入围多的是上海市呢?后来我想了想,因为这两个地方的酒店我都管过,我都当过总经理北京和上海都干过,真要说这两个地方的管理质量有什么差别,后来我得出来这个结论,我觉得很可能是北京是首都客人的期望值高,期望值一高那就相对刚才说什么是满意度,期望值高了那么跟现实碰起来有差距,也可能是这个原因,不是说北京没有上海的饭店管得好,不是这个意思,两个地方顾客的期望值不一样。

We again see the ratio factor.Why do we need to take eight years,The most main is the weight coefficient of factor evaluation,To collect more samples,The weight of sample, the greater the evaluation more accurate.Our evaluation of satisfaction index is first and foremost for a single fuzzy evaluation,The so-called single factor fuzzy evaluation is to determine the evaluation index factor concentration of each factor in the evaluation of concentrated period of the history of the limited,Then carries on the multistage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.Through step by step calculation we can obtain the primary factor of this hotel and the hotel evaluation grade five gears inside history degree is limited.So index calculation we got the whole history of these five degrees evaluation set limited take two principles in the future,A principle of history is the biggest degree,That is to say, choose history degree is the largest as the index of language expression.The second is to use the principle of weighted score for each gear are different scores obtained by addition sum again digital satisfaction index.This release we will tell from its practical application,Wear the dean said just now is a different management institutions to promote the quality of the hotel has a certain practical significance,Another domestic horwath do statistics every year now,Since the tube of the hotel/To the domestic hotel management management of the company/To the international brand management of the hotel and so on these,If take out all these contrast can also have relationships to improve the quality of hotel operations.The hotel itself her cases,If we pass this issue after we each quarter if released,Hotel owners and management company can know the service line,It the wave of change or stability changes can have an objective reference indicators,If to do so.For the end of this year is listed on the country in March 758,We took half three hundred before is included in this coefficient.For domestic OTA situation of 4422 restaurants also took in front of three hundred,Mainly in the top of on the site.You have a look at,East China up to 31.35%,The northwest region at least,This is not a simple sense in east China hotel is too good,The northwest region is too bad,It is because we listed five-star hotel itself is rare,Like if I remember correctly the whole ningxia is a five star,The xi 'an to ten,Xinjiang has 17.Look again at municipality directly under the central government,Municipalities directly under the central government in front of the list is in Shanghai,Can't say the service of the poor,Because Beijing really listed five-star quantity issued by the national tourism administration,Beijing listed five-star quantities than listed in Shanghai five-star about ten more,But why Shanghai is shortlisted for more?Then I wanted to think,Because the two parts of the hotel I tube,I have worked as a general manager of Beijing and Shanghai,I want to say what is the difference between the management quality of these two places,Then I come out this conclusion,I think that is likely to be in Beijing is the capital city guest's expectations,Expectations that high satisfaction is relative to what I said just now,High expectations that have gap with reality to touch up,May also be this reason,Not to say that Beijing is Shanghai's hotel tube well,Don't mean that,Two places is not the same as the customer expectations.

  OTA为什么把这个,在科学研究里面杨博士、林博士都知道,如果一个成果在一个实验室做出来以后,那么能够在另外一个实验室也同样能把它拷贝出来能复制出来,就说明这个实验是成功的。同样一个道理,就像我们发明了一个新品种,我在实验室里面种出来了,我在试验田里面再种,再大面积种。我们这个方法先在七百多家五星级里面试了一下,完了以后再比较大的范围里面就是数量比较多4425家四星级里面,大家看到结构是一样的,说明方法是科学准确的。四星级里面也是一样,北京比上海的高。在一个城市里面如果说你的五星级水平高,相应高,饭店管理人员的流动都差不多,使用的设计院也差不多,买的原材料差不多,一个城市里面是不是能把这个作为一个结论来说现在不敢肯定,但是在一个城市里面这些因素导致的一般来说五星级的满意度高了四星级的满意度随之也是高的,因为那些干饭店的人都是那些人来回倒。

OTA why is this,Dr Yang in scientific research/Dr. Lin knows it,If one of the achievements made in a lab later,Then can in another laboratory also can copy out to copy it,This experiment was a success.The same reason,As we have invented a new type,I kind of came out in laboratory,I again in field,Large areas of again.We this method in more than seven hundred five-star first interview,After the amount inside bigger range is more 4425 four-star,Everyone saw structure is the same,That method is scientific and accurate.Four-star inside as well,Beijing than Shanghai.In a city if your five-star level is high,The corresponding high,The flow of the hotel management personnel are similar,Used by the design institute was similar,Buy raw materials,Whether in a city can take this as a conclusion, now not sure,But in a city, these factors lead to generally five-star satisfaction a four-star high satisfaction is high,Because those who do the hotel are all those people back and forth.

  大概的情况简单说这一点,谢谢大家!

About the situation simply said that,Thank you for your attention!



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