2012年7月12日，中国旅游研究院在京发布2012年上半年旅游经济运行分析和下半年趋势预测报告，认为上半年受国内经济趋势性下滑及世界政治经济形势不稳定的影响，我国旅游经济总体运行平稳，但市场与产业增速同步放缓，三大旅游市场呈现“两升一降”格局，区域旅游格局有所突破。预计全年旅游经济仍然呈增长态势，但是增速将低于去年同期，全年旅游接待总人数将超过30亿人次，旅游总收入约为2.54万亿元。

July 12, 2012，China's tourism research institute released in Beijing in the first half of 2012 tourism economy operation analysis and the second half trend forecast report，In the first half of that by domestic economic trend down the world political and economic situation and the influence of the unstable，Our tour economy overall smooth operation，But the market and industry growth slowdown in sync，Three big tourism market appear“Two liters a drop”pattern，The regional tourism pattern to improve。Annual tourism economy is still expected to increase in the future，But growth will be lower than the same period last year，Annual total tourism will be over 3 billion people，Total tourist income of about 2.54 trillion yuan。

　　上半年旅游经济总体实现平稳较快发展 Tourism economy in the first half of the overall realize steady and fast development

　　上半年，得益于国内旅游较快增长，旅游经济仍然在景气区间内运行，但是增速有所放缓。三大市场中，国内旅游增长较快，出境旅游强劲增长，入境旅游先增后降。产业方面，企业经营业绩下降，投资局部偏热，高端旅游开始受到关注。第一、二季度旅游产业景气指数处于“较为景气水平”，较去年同期略有下降。二季度，饭店业出现景气下降，利税金额、预订人数等景气指标降幅最大。旅游投资维持高位增长，大量企业投资高星级酒店、高端旅游综合体和高尔夫等“三高”项目，以旅游地产投资为主的旅游经济风险被不断推高。区域旅游方面，格局有所突破，二季度中西部地区景气指数首次高于东部地区。

In the first half，Thanks to domestic tourism fast growth，Tourism economy still in the boom interval operation，But has slowed down。Three big market in，Domestic tourism is growing rapidly，Outbound tourism strong growth，Entry tourism first increased and then drop。industry，Enterprise business performance decline，Investment local partial hot，High-end tourism began to attention。The first、In the second quarter of confidence in the tourism industry“More business level”，A slightly lower than the same period last year。In the second quarter of，Hotel industry boom down there，Profit tax amount、The number of book boom index dropped most。Tourism investment maintain high growth，A large enterprise investment high star hotel、High-end tourism complex and golf“Three tenors”project，Real estate investment in tourism as main tourism economic risk is constantly pushed higher。Regional tourism，Pattern to break through，In the second quarter for the first time in the Midwest confidence than region in the east。

　　预计2012年上半年，旅游接待总人数有望突破16亿人次，同比增长13%；旅游总收入1.28万亿元，同比增长17%。国内旅游人数15.5亿人次，同比增长14%；国内旅游收入1.12万亿元，同比增长18%。入境旅游人数6600万人次，同比略有下降；入境旅游外汇收入235亿美元，同比增长2%。出境旅游人数3850万人次，增长19%，出境旅游消费约360亿美元，旅游服务贸易逆差进一步扩大。

Expected in the first half of 2012，The total number of tourism is expected to break through the 1.6 billion passengers，Year-on-year growth of 13%；The total tourist income reached 1.28 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 17%。Domestic tourism number 1.55 billion people，Year-on-year growth of 14%；Domestic tourism income is 1.12 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 18%。Tourist arrivals 66 million passengers，Up a slight decrease in；The entry tourism revenue of $23.5 billion，Year-on-year growth of 2%。Outbound tourism number 38.5 million people，19% increase，Outbound tourism consumption of about 36 billion dollars，Tourism services trade deficit is increasing。

　　对下半年旅游经济发展趋势判断：谨慎乐观 The second half of tourism economic development trend：Cautious optimism

　　旅游经济运行环境总体趋好。有利因素主要有国内经济增速有望保持在预期区间内，为旅游经济提供良好的运行环境；旅游先行指标中企业家信心及旅游投资指数较高；有暑期、中秋国庆消费热点。国际方面，希腊债务危机暂时趋稳及欧盟推出经济刺激计划，有利于提振市场信心。不利因素主要有，世界经济形势日益复杂、口岸及签证政策收紧将增加入境旅游发展压力；景区门票上涨等因素一定程度抑制国内旅游消费，居民消费意愿下降；出境游受人民币升值、国内旅游产品价格高企等因素推动将持续高速增长，并进一步挤占国内市场份额；旅游投资主要流向“三高”项目，投资风险加剧。总体上，支撑旅游经济发展的基本面没有改变，我们对全年运行形势维持“谨慎乐观”。

Tourism economy operation environment QuHao overall。Favorable factors are domestic economic growth is expected to remain in the expected range，For tourism economy provide good operation environment；Tourism forward-looking indicators of entrepreneurs in confidence and tourism investment index is higher；A summer、The Mid-Autumn festival National Day consumption hotspot。international，The Greek debt crisis temporarily stabilised and the European Union economic stimulus plan out，To boost confidence。Adverse factors are，The world economic situation increasingly complex、Port and visa policy tightening will increase the entry tourism development pressure；Scenic spot tickets to a certain extent factors such as rising curb domestic tourism consumption，Consumer will decline；By outbound RMB appreciation、Domestic tourism products high prices will continue to push factors such as high growth，And further occupy the domestic market share；Tourism investment main flow“Three tenors”project，Investment increased risk。In general，Support the fundamentals of tourism economic development has not changed，We run for the situation to maintain“Cautious optimism”。

　　全年发展任务主要指标有望实现 The main task index development throughout the year to realize

　　在口岸、签证及免税等与入境旅游市场直接相关政策创新没有大的突破情况下，预计全年旅游经济仍然呈增长态势，全年发展任务主要指标有望实现，但是增速将低于去年同期，入境旅游等指标可能低于预期。

In port、Visa and duty exemption, etc and tourism market directly related policy has no major breakthrough innovation，Annual tourism economy is still expected to increase in the future，The main task index development throughout the year to realize，But growth will be lower than the same period last year，The entry tourism and other indicators can be lower than expected。

　　预计2012年全年，旅游接待总人数将超过30亿人次，旅游总收入约为2.54万亿元。国内旅游人数将突破29亿人次，同比增长11%；国内旅游收入2.23万亿元，同比增长16%。入境旅游1.37亿人次，同比增长1%；入境过夜人数约5825万人次，同比增长1%；旅游外汇收入490亿美元，同比增长1%；出境旅游人数7840万人次，同比增长12%；出境旅游消费820亿美元，同比增长18%，旅游服务贸易逆差330亿美元。

Full year 2012 is expected to，Tourism reception of the total number of more than 3 billion people，Total tourist income of about 2.54 trillion yuan。The number of domestic tourism will break 2.9 billion passengers，Year-on-year growth of 11%；Domestic tourism income is 2.23 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 16%。Entry tourism 137 million passengers，Year-on-year growth of 1%；Entry for the night number about 58.25 million passengers，Year-on-year growth of 1%；The tourist foreign exchange income is 49 billion dollars，Year-on-year growth of 1%；Outbound tourism number 78.4 million people，Year-on-year growth of 12%；Outbound tourism consumption of 82 billion dollars，Year-on-year growth of 18%，Tourism services trade deficit of $33 billion。