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高速节假日免费 旅游公路民间资本生退意--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-08-16

  “没想到高速公路节假日免费来得这么快。”曾成功投资西部某高速公路的邹先生(化名)向《第一财经日报》表达了他的忧虑。 “Didn't expect highway holidays free come so fast。”Has successfully investment to the western a highway Mr. Zou(alias)to《The first financial daily》Expressed his anxiety。

  在为期一年的高速公路收费专项整治收关后,高速公路节假日免费政策将从今年国庆节开始迅速跟进。高速公路政策变化之快,不负“高速”之名,让地方部门、公路公司以及投资者有些猝不及防。

In the period of one year of highway charges collect special improvement after shut,Highway holidays free policy will from the National Day this year began to follow up quickly。Highway policy change fast,Shall not be liable“High speed”The name of,Let the local authorities、Highway companies and investors some be caught off guard。

  邹先生说,他也不知道未来是福是祸。两个已进入实际商谈阶段的旅游公路项目,他突然开始犹豫是否跟进。

Mr. Zou said,He also don't know the future is a blessing or a curse。Two has entered the actual negotiations phase of tourist highway project,He suddenly began to hesitate whether to follow up。

  邹先生代表的只是多数投资人的心态,更为“肉痛”的是上市公司。一位不愿透露姓名的行业分析师对本报表示,节假日免费并非不可承受,关键是免费或只是政府治理的一个开端。利润降低只是一方面,更重要的是行业将面临规则的重新洗牌。“在宏观经济形势不明朗的情况下,是风险还是机遇还不好确定。”

Mr. Zou representative is most investors mentality,more“RouTong”Is a listed company。One does not wish to disclose the name of the industry analysts to our newspaper said,Free holidays are not not bear,The key is free or just a government governance a beginning。Lower earnings only on one hand,More important is industry will be faced with rules of the reshuffle。“In the macro economic situation under the condition of uncertainty,Is the risk or opportunity is not sure。”

  

公路公司回归理性 Highway company regression rationality

  和早期大喊“亏不起”相比,路桥公司的态度逐渐变得理性。

And early Shouting“Kui not”Compared with,Luqiao company attitude gradually become rational。

  粤高速董秘办对记者表示,节假日免费对上市公司业绩确有影响,但不会对公司总业绩造成大的震荡。

Guangdong high-speed dong secret do told reporters,Holidays free to the listed companies achievement does have an impact,But not for the company's total performance caused great shock。

  上述行业分析师称,路桥公司此前反应激烈的原因是政策来得太突然。“很多公司此前没有得到任何通报,而是从媒体得知这一消息。”而这增加了他们的不安感。

The above industry analysts say,Luqiao company had reaction fierce reason is that policy was a surprise。“Many company had not get any bulletin,But from the media that this news。”And this have increased their sense of uneasiness。

  一年免费20天,路桥公司到底将亏多少?记者通过采访19家高速公路上市公司相关负责人,以及查询企业财报等数据发现:目前,公路上市公司一类车(7座及以下轿车、小型客车,2吨及以下小货车)车流占比高的约为70%~80%,低的约占50%~60%。此外,小型客车收费大概为货车的1/3,各公司业绩将下降2%~8%,利润将下降1%~2%。

One year free 20 days,Luqiao company exactly how much will be deficient?Reporter through the interview 19 highway the relevant person in charge of the listed company,And inquires the enterprise such as earnings data discovery:At present,Highway listed company kind of car(7 seat and under the car、mini-bus,2 tons and below small truck)Traffic than high of about 70% ~ 80%,Lower about 50% ~ 60%。In addition,Mini-bus fees for about a third of the truck,Each company performance will decline by 2% ~ 8%,Profit will be decreased by 1% ~ 2%。

  总体看来,以小型车辆为主要通行车辆的深高速(600548.SH)等公司损失较大,以货车为主的皖通高速(600012.SH)、现代投资(000900.SZ)等公司损失较小。“除小型车辆所占通车车辆比例之外,养护费用、还贷额等因素也将决定各公司亏损数额,各地车流增长情况也要等实际通行后才能确定。”上述分析师称。

overall,With the small-sized vehicle as the main passing vehicles deep high speed(600548. SH)Large companies such as loss,Mainly to truck anhui through high speed(600012. SH)、Modern investment(000900 SZ)Smaller companies such as loss。“In addition to small vehicle traffic of vehicles outside proportion,Maintenance cost、Factors such as a will decide the amount of the loss,Traffic growth around also have to wait for the actual traffic to determine。”The above analysts say。

  公路公司的不安,还缘于行业的持续低迷。据媒体报道,截至8月2日,“破净”的9家高速公路公司里,赣粤高速(600269.SH)、福建高速(600033.SH)、粤高速A(000429.SZ)、中原高速(600020.SH)等4家公司股价跌至历史最低。楚天高速上周四公布的半年报也显示,公司上半年净利1.35亿元,同比减少33%。

Highway company unrest,Also because of the continuous industry downturn。According to media reports,As of August 2,,“Broken net”The nine highway in the company,Guangdong jiangxi high-speed(600269. SH)、Fujian high-speed(600033. SH)、Guangdong high speed a(000429 SZ)、Zhongyuan high-speed(600020. SH)4 companies share price fell to the lowest history。Chutian high-speed semi-annual report released on Thursday also show,The company in the first half net profit is 135 million yuan,Reduced by 33% year-on-year。

  该分析师称,自去年收费公路专项整治活动开始以来,敏感的投资者就嗅到了气味,各大股吧都在流传“高速路桥告别暴利,卖掉高速买物流”。

The analysts said,Since last year's toll highway special regulation since the start of the event,Sensitive investors will smell the smell,Each big guba are spread“High speed road &bridge farewell profits,Sell high speed buy logistics”。

  他介绍,从去年的收费公路专项整治开始,许多公司开始关注公路收费改革。去年关于专项整治的通知不仅提到要整治不规范收费,还指出“在整治期间,严格审批收费公路收费站设置和收费公路权益转让事项,暂停审批收费公路资产上市融资和境外企业收购收费公路资产。”

He introduced,From last year's toll highway special campaigns to start,Many companies begin to pay close attention to highway charge reform。Last year the special regulation about the notice of not only mention regulation is not standard charge,Also pointed out that“In the renovation period,Strict examination and approval toll highway toll station set up and toll road rights transfer matters,Suspend the examination and approval toll highway asset listed financing and foreign enterprise purchase toll highway assets。”

  “这意味着高速公路上市公司有了更多获得资产注入的机会,因此行业整治对上市公司来说既是挑战,也是机遇。但对小公司来说,打击更大些。”该分析师称,高速公路高负债且融资困难的压力与公众对物流成本高的不满是一对极难调和的矛盾。未来,随着车流量的增大和路网的完善,这一矛盾会有所减缓。但国家将采取何种方式和进度进行公路收费改革仍不明晰。“至少不宜过多使用行政权力强制干涉市场行为。”

“This means that the highway listed companies have more opportunity to gain the injection of assets,So industry regulation of listed companies both challenges,And opportunities。But for a small company speaking,Blow more。”The analysts said,Highway high debt financing difficulties and pressure and the public logistics cost high dissatisfaction is a very difficult to harmonic contradiction。The future,With the increase of the traffic and the improvement of the network,This contradiction will slow down。But the country will take what way and progress for highway charge reform is still not clear。“At least unfavorable and overmuch use administrative power compulsory interference market behavior。”

  

民间投资者犹豫 Folk investors hesitate

  上市公司尚且存在博弈,未上市的小公司和民间投资者则无法心存侥幸。

If the listed company existing game,Unlisted small company and folk investors cannot take any chances。

  交通运输部科学研究院交通财政与金融研究所常务副所长胡方俊对本报称,目前,我国有35%的国家高速公路网尚未建成,公路建设每年需投入资金超过1万亿元,仅靠公共财政难以满足需求,短期内仍需多种融资方式筹集资金。

The traffic department of transportation academy of sciences traffic financial and financial research institute standing deputy director HuFang CSL to our newspaper said,At present,Our country has 35% of the national highway system has not yet been built,Highway construction each year should be invested more than 1 trillion yuan,Only by the public finance is difficult to meet the demand,In the short term still need a variety of financing way to raise money。

  不过,在多个整治收费政策的出台下,一些未上市的公路公司开始萌生退意,部分投资商也显得十分犹豫。

but,In the multiple regulation charge policy on the next,Some unlisted highway company started TuiYi initiation,Some investors also appears very hesitant。

  作为投资者之一,邹先生代表了大部分民间投资者的心态。

As one of the investors,Mr. Zou represents the most of the folk investors mentality。

  13年前,邹先生曾投资西部地区某高速公路的部分路段。在他看来,除了收益见效较慢以外,这是一项风险相对较小的投资方式。一直以来,在“要想富先修路”思想指导下,为引资修路,早年许多地方政府对投资商开出的条件之优越,甚至到了“忍气吞声”的地步。

13 years ago,Mr. Zou has a highway investment in the west part of the road。In his view,In addition to income effective outside slower,This is a relatively small investment risk。Has been,in“Want to rich road first”guidance,For investment road,Early many local governments to investors on the superior conditions,Even in the“Submit to humiliation”point。

  “法规不完善,公路需求旺盛,投资条件优越。”邹先生说,早年公路投资有点发乱世财的味道。

“Regulations imperfect,Highway demand,Investment condition is superior。”Mr. Zou said,Early highway investment a little hair gone with the taste of wealth。

  最近邹先生又计划投资海南旅游公路。目前该省对公路建设仍有巨大需求。海南日前发布《海南省人民政府关于加快公路建设的意见》,称将投资600亿元完善公路网络,并明确指出“鼓励和支持民间资本进入公路建设领域”是600亿建设资金的重要来源之一。

Mr. Zou recently and plan to invest in hainan tourism highway。At present the province on highway construction there are still huge demand。Hainan to released《The people's government of hainan province on speeding up the opinions of the highway construction》,Says it will invest 60 billion yuan perfect highway network,Pointed out that the“To encourage and support the private capital into the field of highway construction”Is 60 billion construction fund one of the important sources。

  邹先生说,他花了约半年的时间了解市场和相关投资政策,但在一切看似顺利的时候,去年的收费公路专项整治让他有些犹豫。“如果要真下大力气整治,不知道行业前景将会如何。”

Mr. Zou said,He spent about half a year's time to understand the market and related investment policy,But in all seemingly going,Last year's toll highway special improvement let him some hesitation。“If you want to really goal improvement,Don't know industry prospects will be how。”

  节假日免费政策的出台更加剧了他的不安。“运用行政手段实现免费,这不太符合市场精神。”在他看来,像他这样的投资商资金所占比例不大,也没有多少话语权,没有“冒险”的资本。“高速公路仍是长线投资的绝好选择。再观察一下,等形势明朗些再说。”

Holidays free policy appearing more aggravate his uneasiness。“Using the administrative means to realize free,It's not too conforms to the market spirit。”In his view,Like he such investors fund proportion is not big,Also do not have how many discourse right,no“adventure”capital。“Highway is still long term investment perfect choice。To look,Some say the situation such as clear。”


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