奥运会临近，关于奖牌榜的预测也是层出不穷，虽然不像欧洲杯上有预测“神兽”，但各路专家学者的意见无疑更具参考性，可科学家与经济学家从各自研究领域出发，却得出了不同的结论。

Olympic Games is near，Of the medal table prediction is also about the perpetrators，Although not as euro forecasts“God beast”，But experts scholars opinion undoubtedly more reference，But scientists and economists from their areas start，But draw very different conclusions。

　　

首金预测 First gold prediction

　　科研机构：射击的不确定性太强

Scientific research institutions：The uncertainty of shooting too strong

　　根据伦敦奥运会的竞赛日程，首枚金牌将在女子10米气步枪比赛中产生，中国队派出世锦赛冠军、广东名将易思玲和四川内江妹子喻丹出战，抢到这枚金牌胜算几何？

According to London's Olympic competition schedule，First gold medal in the women's 10 m air rifle shooting will be produced in the game，China sent the world champions、Guangdong's YiSiLing and sichuan neijiang sister YuDan into battle，Grab the gold MEDALS are geometry？

　　马克·萨博是加拿大一家科研机构的负责人，他的团队专攻运动生理和心理研究，特别是在射击领域占有一席之地。“我们和中国射击队的王(义夫)是老朋友，在各种射击大赛上经常见面，我们也会在大赛期间布展。 ”马克·萨博表示，这次来奥科会也是展示最新的研究成果。

Marc saab is Canada a person in charge of the scientific research institutions，His team specialize in the sports physiology and psychology，Especially in the fire area has a place。“We and the Chinese sharpshooters notched the king(YiFu)Are old friends，In all the shooting competition often meet，We will also during the tournament sense。 ”Marc saab said，The science is to Mr Show the newest research results。

　　当被问及伦敦奥运会首枚金牌将花落谁家时，马克·萨博诡秘地一笑，“这很难说，因为技术研究只能告诉你运动员的相对稳定的生理和心理状态，而射击的不确定性太强，特别是奥运会首金，运动员要承受超乎寻常的压力。 ”萨博说，通过研究，只能告诉你哪个选手最近状态波动的大小，至于决赛的那几十分钟，“一切皆有可能。 ”

When asked about London Olympic Games will first gold medal in time to come，Saab, mark mysteriously a smile，“It's hard to say，Because the technology research can tell you the athletes relatively stable physiological and psychological state，And the uncertainty of the shooting too strong，The Olympic Games, in particular the first gold，Athletes to withstand extraordinary pressure。 ”Saab said，Through the research，Can only tell you which players the size of the state of recent fluctuations，As for the final few minutes，“Anything is possible。 ”

　　萨博拿出一份宣传材料，上面写着“MIND OVER MUSCLE”(脑胜于力)。他表示，他们研发的一套辅助训练系统，可以有效地帮助运动员提高训练质量，“我们用这套系统帮助印度男子10米气步枪选手阿比纳夫·宾德拉训练，最终他夺得了2008年北京奥运会金牌，这也是印度历史上的首枚奥运金牌。 ”值得一提的是，宾德拉当时战胜的正是卫冕冠军朱启南。

Saab took out a publicity materials，Top write“MIND OVER MUSCLE”(Brain is better than force)。He said，They developed a set of auxiliary training system，Can effectively help athletes improve training quality，“We use the system to help India men's 10 m air rifle shooting player interest o Clive Penn Della training，Finally, he won the gold medal in the 2008 Beijing Olympics，This is Indian history first Olympic gold medal。 ”It is，Penn was overcome Della is defending champion zhu qinan。

　　

奥科会预测： Mr Secco will predict：

　　中国金牌数必过30

China will be finished in 30

　　2012年奥林匹克体育科学大会于上周在在英国北部城市格拉斯哥的苏格兰展览会议中心开幕。在这一公认的世界综合性体育科学大会上，众多专家学者、科研机构对伦敦奥运会进行了预测。

The 2012 Olympic sports scientific congress last week in the north of England city Glasgow in Scotland exhibition and conference center opening。In this world of a recognized comprehensive sports science conference，Many experts and scholars、Scientific research institutions to London Olympic Games were predicted。

　　跟国人对中国奥运军团出征伦敦前景的忧心忡忡相比，欧美学者、专家却表现出超乎想象的乐观，他们普遍认为，中国代表团金牌总数会比上届缩水，但拿到30枚以上金牌没问题。

With our Chinese Olympic legion, worried about the prospects of the London were compared，Europe and America scholars、Experts it showed incredible optimistic，They generally thought，The Chinese delegation gold medal amounts will shrink than the last，But we got more than 30 pieces gold medal no problem。

　　来自美国的运动生理学教授希金森认为：“中国选手在乒乓球、羽毛球、举重、跳水、柔道、射击、体操等传统优势项目上仍然实力超群，这基本上可以确保进入金牌榜前3名，如果在田径、游泳、摔跤、拳击等项目上有所斩获，金牌总数可以轻松突破30枚。 ”在他看来，中国军团再次独占鳌头并不是困难的事情。而这样的观点在欧美学者当中相当普遍，大概是中国军团在北京奥运会的惊艳表现把他们镇住了吧。

From American sports physiology professor hutchinson and think：“Chinese players in the table tennis、badminton、weightlifting、diving、judo、shooting、The traditional advantage of gymnastic project still superior strength，This basically can ensure that came into the top three，If in the track and field、swimming、wrestling、The projects have gained ground，Gold medal amounts can easily break 30 rockets。 ”In his view，Chinese legion pulls ahead again and is not difficult。And the view of scholars in Europe and America are quite popular，Chinese legion is probably in the Beijing Olympic Games to make the distinction! They performance。

　　上届奥运会，美国代表团和俄罗斯代表团分别获得36金和23金；2004年雅典奥运会，美、中、俄三个代表团的金牌总数分别为35枚、32枚和27枚。因此，即便是东道主英国代表团的金牌总数有所增长，但鉴于其和中国军团直接交锋的项目不多，因此彼此影响不大。如果中国代表团能突破30金，基本上可以锁定金牌榜前两位。

The last Olympics，The U.S. delegation and Russian delegation won respectively 36 gold and 23 gold；The 2004 Athens Olympic Games，beauty、in、And three of the delegation were 35 total gold medal、32 gold MEDALS and 27。so，Even if is the host of the British delegation to the gold medal amounts increased，But given its and Chinese legion directly clash and little project，So little influence on each other。If the Chinese delegation can break through 30 gold，Basically can lock before came two。

　　

预测者介绍 Forecasts are introduced

　　奥科会：世界体育学术科研综合性盛会

Mr Secco will：The world sports academic scientific research comprehensive event

　　从1960年开始，每届夏季奥运会举行之前，国际体育科学与教育理事会组织都会召开奥林匹克科学大会(简称奥科会)。

From 1960 to，At each of the summer before the Olympics，International sports science and education council held the Olympic science organization will congress((hereinafter referred to as the Olympic)。

　　2012年格拉斯哥奥科会于英国当地时间7月19日13时50分在英国北部城市格拉斯哥的苏格兰展览会议中心开幕。这次会议由国际奥委会、国际残奥委会、国际运动医学联合会和国际体育科学与教育理事会四家国际组织联合举办，主题是“运动激发学术遗产”，涵盖从生物学、医学、心理学到经济学、历史学、社会学等众多与体育科学相关学科，国际体育科学研究机构以及高校的专家、学者云集格拉斯哥，参加这一世界体育学术科研的综合性盛会。 特约记者 夏书

In 2012, Glasgow (in Britain's local time on 19 July 13 when 50 points in the north of England city Glasgow Scotland exhibition and conference center opening。The meeting by the international Olympic committee (ioc)、The international Olympic committee (ioc)、International sports medicine association and the international sports science and education council four international organization jointly held，Theme is“Sports inspire the academic heritage”，Covers from a biological、medical、Psychology to economics、history、Sociology, etc and sports science related discipline，International sports scientific research institutions and universities as well as experts、Scholars gathered in Glasgow，To participate in this world sports academic research of comprehensive event。 Special reporter summer book

　　

普华永道预测： PWC forecast：

　　中国奖牌数比上届少13枚

China's medal less than the last 13 pieces

　　在普华永道对今年伦敦奥运会作出的预测中，中国队被估计可以获得87枚奖牌，位居奖牌榜第二位，但是奖牌数会比上届减少13枚，而美国会以113枚奖牌，超出上届3枚的成绩继续位居奖牌榜第一，东道主英国将位列俄罗斯之后，以54枚奖牌占据奖牌榜第四位。

In PWC London Olympic Games this year made the forecast，China is estimated to gain 87 MEDALS，In the second medal table，But most will reduce 13 pieces than the last，And America will to 113 MEDALS，Beyond the last 3 gold MEDALS in the results continue to first，The host will be the British after Russia，To 54 MEDALS occupy fourth medal table。

　　该机构的霍克斯沃斯说：“在通常情况下，赢得奖牌的数量随着该国的人口和经济增长而增加。一些小国有时候可能在奥运赛场战胜大国，不过中国、美国和俄罗斯这样的超级大国将继续占据奖牌榜的领先的位置。 ”

The agency, the hawk leavenworth said：“In general，The number of winning a medal as the country's population and economic growth and increase。A few small state-owned time the Olympics may win over power，But China、The United States and Russia this super power will continue to occupy a leading position of the medal table。 ”

　　在霍克斯沃斯的奖牌榜预测中，列出了前30名的国家/地区，上涨者寥寥，更多的是下跌或持平，总奖牌数将减少31枚，从792枚减少至761枚；而30名以外的国家/地区奖牌总数将相应地增加31枚。

Leavenworth, in the medal table in the forecast，Lists the top 30 countries/regions，Rise a few who，More is to drop or flat，Jack always will be reduced and rockets，From 792 to 761 pieces of gold to reduce；And 30 other countries/regions will have a total MEDALS accordingly increase and rockets。

　　普华永道得出更多的一些有趣的结论：中国队本届奥运会不再是东道国，奖牌数量不仅较上届奥运会更难以超过美国 (上届奥运会中国在金牌数列第一位，但奖牌总数要少于美国)，而且成为奖牌数下滑最多的国家，奖牌数将由100跌至87。英国队本届奥运会占据主场之利，奖牌数量将从上届的47枚增加到54枚。俄罗斯队将继续占据奖牌榜第三位的位置，预计将获得68枚奖牌，但也比上届减少了5枚。印度的奖牌数量与其人口和GDP严重不符，该国在本届奥运会上大约只能获得5-6枚奖牌。较为合理的解释是该国体育的侧重点除了曲棍球以外并不在奥运会项目上，而是更多地放在了板球等非奥运项目上。

PWC draw more some interesting results：China is no longer the games host，The number is not only the last Olympics medal is more difficult than the United States (The last Olympics gold medal in China the first series，But total MEDALS to less than the United States)，And as the country with the most accompany the downturn，Jack will fall to 87 by 100。The British team occupies the home of the games，The number of MEDALS from the last 47 MEDALS increase to 54 rockets。Russia will continue to occupy the position of the third medal table，Is expected to get 68 MEDALS，But also reduce the 5 pieces than the last。India's medal amount and its population and GDP is not serious，The country's in the Olympic Games only get about five or six MEDALS。Reasonable explanation is the country's sports the emphasis of the outside in the Olympic Games is not except hockey on the project，But more on the cricket is not the Olympic projects。

　　

预测者介绍 Forecasts are introduced

　　普华永道：世界四大会计师事务所之一

PWC：The world is one of the big four firms

　　普华永道除了经济领域之外有时也涉足其他行业，比如每届奥运会之前他们就会对奖牌榜做出自己的预测，并一一指出每个国家能够获得的金牌具体都是哪些，今年的奥运会也不例外。

PWC in addition to economic domain outside sometimes involved in other industries，Each Olympic Games such as before they will make its own forecast for MEDALS，And one each country can be pointed out that was the gold medal specific what are they，This year's Olympic Games are no exception。

　　主持普华永道这个项目的是他们的英国分部首席经济学家霍克斯沃斯，上届奥运前类似的项目就是他主持的。他们认为以下几点政治和经济因素会对每个国家在奥运会上的奖牌数量产生显著的影响：1、人口；2、平均收入水平(人均国民生产总值按照国际购买力平价来衡量)；3、该国政府是否能够给予奥运项目显著的支持；4、该国是否是主办国。(小中 )

The project hosted PWC is their British division chief economist, Mohawk leavenworth，The last Olympics similar project is before he presided over the。They think the following political and economic factors for each country on the MEDALS in the Olympic Games have a significant influence：1、population；2、Average income level(The per capita GDP in accordance with international purchasing power parity measure)；3、The country whether the government can give the Olympic project significant support；4、The country is the host country。(Small in )