下半年成交或放量，价格预计稳中微升 The second half to clinch a deal or tumbled，Prices are expected to steady edged

下半年住宅市场研判 The second half of the housing market to analyze

1.货币政策有望进一步放松，房产调控政策以稳为主 1. The monetary policy is expected to relax，House property regulation policy with be give priority to

　　上半年，我国各项经济指标不甚理想，经济增长乏力，下行压力加大，而下半年的走向更多取决于国际经济复苏的速度及国内宏观刺激政策是否能够取得成效，不排除经济有进一步下滑的可能。为了刺激经济，以实现经济的“稳增长”，年内仍将有一两次下调存款准备金率或是再度降息的可能。而货币政策的进一步放松或将给予持续释放的市场需求以支撑的动力和信心支持。

In the first half，All the economic indexes in our country is not very ideal，Weak economic growth，Downward pressure increase，And in the second half of the year to more international economic recovery depends on the speed and domestic macroscopical policy stimulus could achievements have been made，Don't rule out the possibility of economic decline further。In order to stimulate the economy，In order to realize the economy“Steady growth”，Years there will be a still two down the deposit reserve rate or cut interest rates again likely。And monetary policy further relax or will give constantly release market demand to support power and confidence support。

　　至于房地产调控政策，仍将维持稳定，继续实施差异化的信贷政策和税收政策，但抑制投资投机性需求的准线仍难以动摇，限购限贷政策将持续。因目前调控已取得一定的成果，房价过快上涨的趋势已基本被遏制，从近期中央层面的表态来看，更多的是以维护调控所取得的成果为主，只要房价不出现大幅度反弹，政策再度加码的可能性不大。而值得注意的是，下半年四十大城市住房信息实现联网并正式运行后，或将使得限购限贷的力度有所加深，跨市多次购房的投资渠道将被封堵，这实际是对投资投机性需求起到了进一步抑制作用。

As for the real estate control policies，Will remain stable，Continue to implement differentiation credit policy and tax policy，But lowers investment the speculative demand line-of-sight remain to be moved，限购 limit credit policy will continue。Currently control has made some achievement，House prices rise rapidly trend has basically be curbed，From the central level to see the recent statement，More on maintaining control achievements made primarily，As long as home prices don't appear rebound greatly，Policy is unlikely to stir again。But it is worth noting that，The second half of the big city forty housing information network and realize the official operation，Or will make 限购 limit the strength of the loan has deepened，KuaShi many buying investment channels will be blocked，This is the actual investment the speculative demand for a further the inhibition。

　　下半年预计在坚持限购限贷政策不动摇的框架内，持续放松的信贷货币政策以及地方微调政策或将加速购房需求的释放，并促进市场的加速回暖。

In the second half to 限购 credit limit is expected to policies within the framework of not be moved，Continue to relax credit monetary policy and local fine-tuning policy or will accelerate the release of pent-up demand，And the acceleration of promoting market buoyancy。

2.土地或加速供应，发展商拿地积极性将提高 2. Land or accelerate supply，Developers to take initiative will improve

　　广州今年将供应2.55平方公里商品住宅用地，相比去年计划供应的3.37平方公里，减少近25%。而上半年实际成交出让面积为0.52平方公里，仅占总量的15%，预计下半年土地将加速放量供应，从供应结构来看，依然是以外围区域地块为主，且不乏有几大重点功能区的地块出让，包括琶洲、奥体新城、大学城及广州南站等。

Guangzhou this year will supply 2.55 square kilometers commodity housing land，In the last year of the supply of plan 3.37 square kilometers，Reduce nearly 25%。In the first half and the actual transaction area of 0.52 square kilometers，Accounted for only 15% of the total，The second half is expected to land will speed up the supply of rare，From supply structure and see，Still is mainly in the outlying regions plot，And not a few big key functional areas of the plot，Including pazhou、Olympic sports new town、College town and guangzhou south station, etc。

　　虽然今年住宅用地的总体供应有所减少，但因房地产市场成交回暖的影响，发展商拿地的积极性相比去年将有明显提高，流拍现象会有所减少，下半年不排除部分优质地块将引来多家发展商的争抢并实现高溢价成交。但由于房地产调控政策难以放松，发展商在拿地方面将保持谨慎乐观的态度。

Although this year the overall housing land supply reduced，But because of the influence of the real estate market clinch a deal warmer，Developers to take the initiative in the last year will have increased significantly，Flow phenomenon will take decreased，The second half part of the plot will not rule out high quality drew the developer's home for and achieve high premium clinch a deal。But because the real estate control policy is to relax，The developer in to take will remain cautious optimism。

3.高库存及新货放量双重压力，市场竞争加剧 3. High inventory and new stock tumbled double pressure，Market competition

　　据经纬行研究中心不完全市调统计，截止6月30日十区余货达3.4万套，合计378万，十区两市余货4.7万套，合计540万，在经过了4月至6月的市场消化后，6月底的余货量相比3月底已有一定程度减少，但依然处于高位，因此下半年去库存化的压力仍较大。而今年下半年广州十区预计新增供应达4.1万套，折合面积约457万，十区两市预计新增供应约5.18万套，折合面积约591万。从总体新增供货量来看，与去年下半年相比有小幅增长，但部分区域的新增供应量却发生了较大的变化，其中荔湾区、黄埔区和萝岗区相比去年下半年供应量有明显的增加，主要是全新项目的扎堆供应，使得区域缺货状态将有较大的缓解。而作为传统供应大区的白云和增城，在本轮供应中则有所回落，主要是区域内部分大型项目开发已接近尾声或是全新组团工程进度未能赶得上，另外，库存量较大亦是制约其推货节奏的主因。

According to do research center not completely weft city the statistics，By June 30 YuHuo ten area 34000 set，Total 3.78 million，10 the area two city YuHuo 47000 sets，Total 5.4 million，After the April to June market after digestion，At the end of June YuHuo compared the amount by the end of march to a certain extent has been reduced，But still high，So the second half the pressure to stock still bigger。And the second half of this year the new supply is expected to guangzhou ten area of 41000 sets，Over an area of about 4.57 million，10 the area two city the new supply is expected to about 51800 sets，Over an area of about 5.91 million。In general GongHuoLiang new to see，Compared with a slight increase in the second half of last year，But some of the areas of new supply has undergone great changes，Liwan district of、Huangpu district of the second half of last year and rose compared supply has significantly increased，Main is a new project cluster supply，That would be a big state out of stock area of ease。As a traditional supply the white clouds in the region and zengcheng city，In the current round of supply is falling，The main part is in the region of large project development is closer to the end or new group the progress of the projects fail to catch it，In addition，Large stock is also restrict its push the tempo of the goods as well。

　　下半年的新增供应，依然以旧盘新推为主，占比超七成，全新盘预计有62个。新货的供应节点预计依然集中在“金九银十”和年底这两个销售节点推货，但8月份预计也将有不少新货推出。由于多个板块新货集中，预计板块竞争将较为激烈，包括荔湾的芳村板块、白云的金沙洲板块、花都的区府板块、番禺的华南板块、市桥板块和亚运城板块、南沙的金洲-区府板块、增城的新塘板块等。

The new supply in the second half of the year，Still in an old dish new push to give priority to，More than seventy percent of the，All the XinPan is expected to have 62。The supply of new goods node is expected to focus on still“Jin jiuyin 10”And the end of the two sales node push goods，But in August are also expected to have quite a lot of new goods, launched。Due to multiple plate on new goods，The competition will be more intense is expected to plate，Including li wan fang village plate、White clouds of sand gold plates、The area of the flower mansion plate、Panyu south China plate、City bridge plates and the yuncheng plate、The nansha jinzhou-area government plate、The zengcheng city, xintang plate, etc。

4.需求释放推动成交量上涨，价格预计稳中微升 4. Promoting volume rising demand release，Prices are expected to steady edged

　　上半年，首套房首付利率优惠的回归、多盘以价换量在很大程度上刺激了不少观望已久的刚需客户入市，而客户结构层面也有所升级，从3月份的首置客户为主变成现在的首置和改善客户一齐积极入市的局面。而持续几个月的成交回升正反过来影响着消费者和发展商的预期。目前不少客户的心理预期已从之前的观望变为了恐涨，而发展商则因市场的明显回暖，促销优惠相比之前收窄不少，亦有部分发展商开始涨价或是即将涨价。

In the first half，The first suite down the return of the favorable interest rate、Many trays to price change is largely to stimulate the many wait-and-see already a long time of just customers will market，And customers structure level will be upgraded，From march first buy into the first customers are now buy and improve customer together the entries positive situation。And last for several months of positive and negative influence on the back to clinch a deal over consumers and developers expected。At present many customers expected from the wait-and-see before has become her fear of price rises，And, because of the obvious developers market buoyancy，Marketing offers before many compared narrow，Also some developers begun to command a price or soon to be price increases。

　　进入下半年，随着购房者预期的改变、新增供应的放量、降准降息所带来的购房成本的降低，或将吸引越来越多需求的释放，市场成交量有望进一步放大，主要推货节点例如“金九银十”，十区月度成交有望达到70-80万，而其余月度或将维持在50-60万之间。

Into the second half，Along with the change of the person that buy a house is expected、The new supply of rare、Drop rate cut must brought by the purchase cost reduction，Or will attract more and more demand the release，Market turnover is expected to further amplification，Main push goods node for example“Jin jiuyin 10”，Ten area monthly clinch a deal is expected to be 70-800000，And the rest of the monthly or will remain in between 50-600000。

　　价格方面，预计将稳中有升。一方面，在经历了3个月消化后，发展商的库存有所减少，资金回笼的压力减弱，另一方面，需求入市的积极、为稳增长而出台的微调预调货币政策则使得发展商对下半年的走向较为乐观，开始以抬价来试探市场的承受能力，以扩大利润空间。

price，Is expected to have increased slowly。On the one hand，After 3 months after digestion，The development of inventory reduced，The money collecting pressure decrease，On the other hand，The market demand positively、For stability and growth on the introduction of the fine-tuning preset monetary policy is made for the remainder of the year the developer to more optimistic，Start with the bounty to tempt the endurance of the market，In order to enlarge the profit space。

　　但目前房价大幅反弹的基本并不存在，首先，房地产调控政策依然从严，限购限贷政策短期内难以放松，推高房价上涨的投资投资性需求被明显抑制；其次，虽然刚需客户总体基数较大，需求较为旺盛，但资金承受能力有限，对价格敏感度高，若房价上涨过快，或将使得这批客户再度陷入观望，市场有可能再度陷入低迷；另外，虽说目前市场消化速度较快，但库存仍处高位，且下半年供应量较大，市场竞争较为激烈，在这种背景下，为保证一定的去货速度，发展商大幅提价的底气不足。

But the current price rebound sharply basic does not exist，first，Real estate control policies still strictly，限购 limit short-term loans to relax，Push the high prices of the investment demand was significantly inhibited investment；second，Although just need to customer base of general larger，Needs more exuberant，But bear ability limited funds，High sensitivity to the price，If house prices rose too quickly，Or will make this batch of customer be thrown into on the fence，Market downturn in May again；In addition，Although at present the market digestion is fast，But the stock remained high place，And the second half larger supply，The market competition is fierce，In this context，To ensure that certain to goods speed，The developer greatly increases the should be。

　　总而言之，近两个月市场回暖的预期预计仍将不变，建议发展商不宜以利换量，应该乘着消费者预期较好的市场条件下赶紧推货走量，实现资金的较快回笼，以取得接下来的市场主动权，因为下半年市场仍存在一定的不确定性，房价出现反弹或是国内经济止跌回升均有可能在一定程度上影响决策层对房地产调控的态度，为避免这种突发情况对市场预期造成的影响，当前环境下，发展商仍需以走量作为首要任务。

overall，Nearly two months market warms up in the expected still expected to be the same，Suggestions for quantity and the developer is unfavorable，Should be in consumer expectations better market conditions to push goods go quantity，Realize the faster cage funds，In order to obtain the next market initiative，For the second half of the market is still exist some uncertainty，House prices rebounded or domestic economy are likely reason picks up in some extent to regulation of the real estate executives attitude，To avoid this sudden situation of the market is expected to make a difference，The current environment，Developers will still need to go to amount as a primary task。

【一周资讯要点】 【Information points a week】

宏观背景 Macroscopic background

广州楼市数据 Guangzhou housing data

豪宅专题 A person of extraordinary powers curtilage the project

周边楼市 Surrounding property market

　　经纬楼市周评第199期：下半年预测(2012.6.30-7.6)

Issue 199, the housing market week longitude：Forecast in the second half(2012.6.30-7.6)