中国旅游研究院近日发布的《2012年中国上半年旅游经济运行分析和下半年趋势预测报告》称，上半年，中国旅游经济总体运行平稳，旅游接待总人数有望突破16亿人次，同比增长13%；旅游总收入1.28万亿元人民币，同比增长17%。

China's tourism research institute released recently《In the first half of 2012 China tourism economy operation analysis and the second trend forecast》says，In the first half，China's tourism economy overall smooth operation，The total number of tourism is expected to break through the 1.6 billion passengers，Year-on-year growth of 13%；The total tourist income reached 1.28 trillion yuan RMB，Year-on-year growth of 17%。

　　但受国内经济趋势性下滑及世界政治经济形势不稳定的影响，旅游市场与产业增速同步放缓，三大旅游市场呈现“两升一降”格局。前六个月，国内旅游人数同比增长14%；出境旅游人数增长19%；受口岸政策的影响，入境旅游人数6600万人次，同比略有下降。

But the result of the domestic economy and the world political and economic decline situation is not stable effect，The tourist market and industry growth slowdown in sync，Three big tourism market appear“Two liters a drop”pattern。Six months before the，The number of domestic tourism a year-on-year increase of 14%；The number of outbound tourism growth of 19%；The influence of the policy by port，Tourist arrivals 66 million passengers，Up a slight decrease in。

　　旅游专家分析，中国旅游市场高速发展的黄金期或许已过，未来市场的发展更可能是积小胜为大胜，靠一两个政策拉动市场，“已经不太现实”。

Tourism expert analysis，China's tourism market with the high-speed development of the golden period may already，The future of the development of the market is more likely to win 1-0 product，By a two policy pulled the market，“Have not very practical”。

　　中国旅游研究院院长戴斌认为，未来，中国旅游业要做好入境旅游增长率在一到两个点之内的心理准备，同时也要做好国内旅游不可能长期保持20%以上增幅的心理准备。“中国旅游收入增幅，在未来一个时期可能仅达到10%—11%，这将是一个常态。”

China's tourism research institute President dai bin think，future，China's tourism industry to do well the entry tourism growth rate in one to two points of psychological preparation within，At the same time also to do well the domestic tourism could not keep for a long time more than 20% of the increase in psychological preparation。“China's tourism income growth，In the future a period may only 10%-11%，This is a normal。”

　　中国旅游研究院认为，今年全年，中国旅游经济仍将呈现增长态势，但是增速将低于去年同期，入境旅游等指标可能低于预期。

China's tourism research institute said，The whole year，China's tourism economy will be present trend，But growth will be lower than the same period last year，The entry tourism and other indicators can be lower than expected。

　　据其预计，2012年中国旅游接待总人数可能超过30亿人次，旅游总收入约为2.54万亿元。其中，国内旅游人数有望突破29亿人次，同比增长11%，国内旅游收入2.23万亿元，同比增长16%。

According to its expected，In 2012 China's total number of tourism may over 3 billion people，Total tourist income of about 2.54 trillion yuan。Among them，The number of domestic tourism expected to exceed 2.9 billion passengers，Year-on-year growth of 11%，Domestic tourism income is 2.23 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 16%。

　　值得关注的是，中国旅游服务贸易逆差进一步扩大。上半年，出境旅游消费约为360亿美元，入境旅游外汇收入235亿美元，逆差为125亿美元；全年旅游服务逆差料达330亿美元。

There is concern，China's tourism services trade deficit is increasing。In the first half，Outbound tourism consumption of about $36 billion，The entry tourism revenue of $23.5 billion，Deficit of $12.5 billion；Annual tourism service for deficit of $33 billion。

　　中国旅游研究院的数据显示，2009年中国旅游服务贸易首次出现逆差，为33亿美元；2010年达到97亿美元，2011年则突破了200亿美元。

China's tourism research institute figures show，In 2009 China tourism services trade deficit for the first time，For $3.3 billion；In 2010, to $9.7 billion，In 2011 then exceeded 20 billion us dollars。

　　除了增速下滑，中国旅游业也面临一些结构性风险。面对当前大量的旅游投资流向“高星级酒店、高尔夫球场、高端旅游综合体”项目的趋势，戴斌说，单纯靠投资拉动旅游经济，不对旅游市场需求的基本面加以关注，片面地采用地产投资的方式开发旅游，对旅游业的负面影响会很大。

In addition to growth decline，China's tourism also face some structural risk。Facing the current a lot of tourism investment flows“High star hotel、Golf course、High-end tourism complex”Project trend，Dai bin said，Simply by investment pull tourism economy，No market demand the fundamentals of tourist attention，The real estate investment one-sided way of tourism development，The negative impact of the tourism industry will be very big。

　　旅游业界亦建议，未来中国旅游业的主旋律应从“一浪接着一浪的运动”来拉升旅游市场的人数和收入总数，转向旅游品质、游客满意度的提高。

The travel industry is also suggested that，The future of Chinese tourism industry should be the main melody“A wave and a wave of sports”To pull litre tourism market and number of total income，Turned to tourism quality、The improvement of the satisfaction of tourists。