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旅游行业 风险释放后仍具机会--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-20

  短期内经济政策大幅度松动可能性较小,尽管未来仍能预期到货币政策的进一步放松,但宏观经济仍处在探底过程中,随着中报的逐步披露,实体经济不断下行引致的企业盈利能力持续下滑,以及由此带来的系统性下调全年盈利预测将成为市场中悲观情绪进一步发酵的主导因素。而在此系统性风险可能急剧释放的过程中,前期实现较大相对收益的旅游板块可能将阶段性承受较大的压力,“覆巢之下无完卵”,即便我们对行业基本面仍具信心,但前期表现相对强势的旅游板块面临着较大的调整压力,不排除出现阶段性补跌的情形。 The short term economic policy substantially less likely to become loose,Although the future can still expected to monetary policy further relax,But macroeconomic is still in the exploration process,With the center daily news gradually revealed,The entity economy has caused by the downlink profitability continued to slide,And science-induced systemic cut annual profit forecast will be in the market pessimism further the dominant factors of fermentation。And in the systemic risk may be in the process of rapid release,Reach large relative gains from the tourism sector may will bear much pressure stage,“The nest is under the eggs”,Even if we are still confident in the fundamentals of the industry,But the relatively strong performance of the tourism sector facing greater adjustment pressure,Don't rule out stage for the fall situation。

  基于未来一段时间市场的趋势判断以及行业的基本面分析,调整结束后市场热点依然可能重回确定性成长板块。因此,建议投资者根据自身持仓比例、结构以及投资风格对旅游板块择机进行波段操作。而在略长的时间窗口内,行业基本面的平稳增长、政策催化预期以及近期日渐浮出水面的上市公司再融资计划、门票/索道提价预期以和旅游主业经营扩张计划将为调整后的投资机会提供有力支持。

Based on the future for a period of time the trend of the market judgment, and the fundamental analysis of the industry,After the adjustment market uncertainty may return to growth still hot plate。so,Suggest investors based on its own position proportion、Structure and investment style on the plate for band tourism operation。And in slightly long time in the window,Industry fundamentals steady growth、Policy and catalytic expected more recently surfaced listed company refinancing plan、Tickets/cable expect to raise prices and tourism industry business expansion plans will be for after the adjustment of investment opportunity to provide strong support。

  行业盈利持续性增长、消费升级阶段旅游行业巨大的成长空间、政策对行业的有力扶植,仍是看好板块、维持行业“增持”评级的重要原因。

Industry profit persistent growth、Consumption upgrade stage of the growth of the space tourism industry giant、To foster the strong industry policy,Is still bullish on plate、Maintain industry“increasing”Rating of the important reasons。

  在投资品种的选择上,将估值安全边际作为投资逻辑的重要考量因素,并建议短期重点关注中报业绩表现良好并有可能超市场预期的个股,规避中报业绩不佳的公司,而资本运作、经营扩张或能较好受益于旅游产业相关扶植政策等事件催化剂亦是重点公司投资排序的重要依据。近期重点推荐排序为峨眉山A、中青旅、丽江旅游、中国国旅、张家界。

Investment in the choice of breed,Also as investment logic of safety serves an important considerations,And suggested that short-term focus on performance center daily news and may have good performance of the super market expectations individual stocks,Avoid performance center daily news not beautiful,And capital operation、Business expansion or can be beneficial to better tourism industry related events such as catalyst up policy is also focused on the important basis of sort investment company。Recently, the order to A key recommendation mount emei、Cyts Tours、Lijiang tourism、CITS、zhangjiajie。

  鉴于市场结构性变化的特征,在当前的悲观情绪引领下,更为强调盈利增长的确定性,调整行业组合配置及投资比例为:峨眉山35%、丽江旅游25%、张家界20%和中青旅20%。

In view of the characteristics of structural changes in the market,In the current negative emotions lead,More emphasis on earnings growth of certainty,Adjusting industry combination configuration and the proportion of investment:Mount emei 35%、Lijiang tourism 25%、Zhangjiajie 20% and 20% cyts Tours。


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