中国效益最好的一条高铁线路——京沪高铁2012年客票收入超出预期，但何时能打平成本还不明朗。

China best benefit a high iron line - the beijing-shanghai high iron 2012 ticket income than expected,But when can draw with cost is not clear.

　　昨（29）日，财新网援引一位接近京沪高铁股份有限公司（简称“京沪高铁”）人士的话报道称：“2012年京沪高铁股份有限公司客票收入为173.8亿元，不包含广告收入和平站商铺收入。”该报道续称，京沪高铁综合处赵主任表示，173.8亿元的收入亦包括跨线收入，目前公布的快报数字尚未审计，最后数字未确定，也没有上交董事会。

yesterday(and)day,Riches are quoted a close to the beijing-shanghai high iron co., LTD(Referred to as"Beijing-shanghai high iron")If people reported:"In 2012 the beijing-shanghai high iron co., LTD. Ticket income for 17.38 billion yuan,Does not contain advertising revenue peace station shops income."The report called for,The beijing-shanghai high iron division director zhao said,Income of 17.38 billion yuan also including across line income,At present has not yet been published express digital audit,The last number has not yet been determined,No hand in the board of directors.

　　中国在2008年国际金融危机爆发后加大了铁路投资，其中又以高铁居多。尽管受到铁道部刘志军案以及“7·23”动车事故的影响，高铁投资曾一度降温，但从2012年铁路基建投资的数据来看，加大铁路投资仍是国家的政策方向。

In 2008, China international financial crisis after the outbreak of the railway investment increase,Among them, and with high iron is in the majority.In spite of the ministry of railways minister liu zhijun and case"7 · 23"The influence of dynamic car accident,High iron investment once cooling,But from 2012 railway infrastructure investment data to see,Increase the railway investment is still the country's policy direction.

　　经过四次调整，2012年全年铁路基建投资计划从4060亿元追加到5160亿元，增加1100亿元，实际投资5185.1亿元，比上年增长12.7%。2013年，铁道部固定资产投资计划为6500亿元，其中基本建设投资5200亿元，投产新线5200公里以上。

After four times adjustment,In 2012, the railway construction investment plan from 406 billion yuan to 516 billion yuan additional,An increase of 110 billion yuan,The actual investment of 518.51 billion yuan,A 12.7% increase from the previous year.In 2013,,The ministry of railways fixed assets investment plan for 650 billion yuan,The basic construction investment of 520 billion yuan,More than 5200 km of new production.

　　中金公司在此前发布的研究报告中表示，尽管2013年投资计划中基建投资略低于预期，但这相对保守的规划主要缘于政府换届尚未完成以及资金问题等。随着铁道部领导换届完成，不排除投资计划上调的可能性。

Cicc in previous study, released the report says,Although 2013 investment plan infrastructure investment slightly lower than expected,But this relatively conservative planning mainly due to the change of government has not yet been completed and the problem of funds, etc.With the change of leadership finish,Will not rule out the possibility of increase investment plan.

　　有观点认为，在高铁运输能力未充分利用、仍亏损的情况下，大建高铁不如多建普通铁路，认为这更切实有利于增加货运、客运的实际运力。

With a view,High in iron transport capacity underutilization/Under the condition of still lose money,Lunar month of 30 days high iron more than ordinary railway building,Think it is more practical to increase freight/The actual capacity of passenger.

　“多项成本未明” "A number of cost is unknown"

　　2012年6月底，铁道部在京沪高铁开通一周年时对外宣布，年运送旅客达到5260万人次，但并未披露具体财务数据。财新网援引多名业内人士的话报道称，目前京沪高铁的收入情况“超出预期”，在其开通的第一年，收入即可覆盖运营与贷款利息支出，现金流已为正。

At the end of June 2012,The ministry of railways in the beijing-shanghai high iron opened in a week when announced,The yearly passenger transportation to 52.6 million people,But did not disclose the specific financial data.Any more money as a word of the personage inside course of study reports,At present the beijing-shanghai high iron income condition"Than expected",In the first year of opening,Income can cover operation and loan interest expense,Cash flow is positive.

　　该报道续称，京沪高铁自2011年6月30日通车，运营半年后的客票收入已达70亿元，而2012年7月份一个月的收入就有18.6亿元，运营第一年收入当已超过百亿元。

The report called for,The beijing-shanghai high iron from 30 June 2011 to traffic,After half a year operation ticket income reached 7 billion yuan,And in July 2012 a month of income is 1.86 billion yuan,The first operation income when has more than ten billion yuan.

　　北京交通大学经济管理学院教授赵坚昨日在接受早报记者采访时认为，客票收入的数字并没有多少意义，此外，发送人数也不能代表运输密度，在京沪高铁上，5000万人次的发送人数中，在南京上车、到无锡即下车的也算1人，运输密度是指每公里平均发送的人次，只有运输密度才能创造收入。“京沪高铁现金流平了，但远未回收成本。”赵坚说。

Beijing jiaotong university economic management academy professor ZhaoJian yesterday in an interview with reporters that morning,Ticket revenue Numbers and not much meaning,In addition,Send the number is not representative traffic density,The beijing-shanghai high in iron,50 million people of sending number of,In nanjing on/Get off to wuxi is also calculate 1 person,Traffic density refers to the average per kilometer send people,Only the traffic density can create income."The beijing-shanghai high iron flat cash flow,But far from recovery cost."ZhaoJian said.

　　赵坚表示，政府和铁道部层面都预期高铁十几年内就能收回成本，“非常乐观”，而他认为这不可能。财新网报道称，一般而言，高铁线路比较理想的状态是：建设期四年，运营期六年无还本压力。在运营第三年或第四年，把固定资产折旧计入后达到收支平衡，运营六七年之后能开始还本。

ZhaoJian said,The government and the ministry of railways are expected level high iron more than ten years to recover the cost,"Very optimistic",But he thinks it's not possible.Riches are reported,Generally speaking,High iron line is the ideal state is:During the four years,The operation period of six years without pressure.In the third year in operation or the fourth year,The depreciation of fixed assets included in the balance is reached,67 years after operation can begin to repayment of capital.

　　对此，赵坚解释有三个原因：一、对铁路来说，折旧是非常高的一块成本，但目前折旧用的是铁道部内部的现金流，是不用交出去的钱，算上折旧应该就是亏损的。二、另外成本是多少铁道部还未公布。第三个影响京沪高铁盈利的因素是委托运营费。

this,ZhaoJian explanation for three reasons:a/For to railway,Depreciation is a piece of very high cost,But the present depreciation is mor internal cash flow,Is don't hand over to money,Count the depreciation should be losses.two/How much is the cost of other mor has not been announced.The third influence the beijing-shanghai high iron profit factor is entrusted operating charges.

　　据财新网2012年9月的报道，目前国内高铁的运营模式是，线路项目公司将高铁线路委托给铁道部下属铁路局运营，并向路局支付委托运营费。一般线路项目公司要和路局就运营收入分成进行谈判，签署委托运营合同。

According to the new wealth in September 2012 reports,At present domestic high iron operation mode is,Line project company will high iron line entrusted to the ministry of railways subordinate of railway operation,And to pay for railway administration by operating charges.The general line project company and railway administration is operating income into negotiations,Sign the contract by operation.

　　据赵坚介绍，目前京沪铁路由三个铁路局运营，但还“不知道怎么分钱”。“上海铁路局报2012年亏损130多个亿，这可能来自京沪高铁，因为它认为自己拿到的运营费低了。”赵坚说，“把铁路局的亏损加上，铁道部现金流还能否为正，就不知道了。这里面有很多不确定因素。”

According to ZhaoJian introduced,At present the beijing-shanghai railway by three railway operation,But also"Don't know how cent"."Shanghai railway bureau in 2012 to over 130 losses,This may come from the beijing-shanghai high iron,Because it think the operating costs low."ZhaoJian said,"The railway station and the loss,The ministry of railways cash flow is still can,Don't know.There are many uncertain factors."

“运力仍未充分利用” "Capacity is still not make full use of"

　　赵坚指出，目前中国高铁的问题在于运输能力还不能充分利用。

ZhaoJian pointed out that,At present China's high iron problem is transport capacity can not make full use of.

　　因为票价相对较高，高铁在编组上以8节为主，而不是16节编组。赵坚算了一笔账：如果不建高铁，而修普通铁路，在京沪线、京广线、沪蓉线等通道上，就有了2条铁路复线，1条普通复线一天可以发140对车，如果2条就是280对车，其中40对用于货运，剩下240对可以用于客运。以一列车运1500人计算，1辆车有18节编组，一天一个方向就可以发送36万人，春运再卖站票，一个方向就能运72万人，“这条通道不会一票难求！”赵坚说。

Because of the relatively high ticket prices,High iron in braided in section is given priority to,Instead of 16 day organization.ZhaoJian calculate a bill:If you don't build high iron,And repair common rail,In the beijing-shanghai railway/rail/Shanghai-chengdu line on the channel,Article 2 the double line railway,1 the ordinary multiline a day to send 140 car,If two is 280 for the car,The forty for freight,The rest of 240 can be used for passenger transport.With a train shipped 1500 calculation,1 car eighteen day organization,One day a direction can send 360000 people,Travel to sell sro tickets,One direction can be shipped 720000 people,"This passage will not vote is hard to find!"ZhaoJian said.

　　“高铁就不行：以京沪线为例，现在有100对左右的列车，很多都是8节编组，即使一天发100对，实际也只有50对，但运能其实至少有160对，运能没充分利用。”赵坚表示。

"High iron is not:To beijing-shanghai railway as an example,Now there are 100 or so of the train,Many are eight day organization,Even if one day to send 100,The actual only to fifty,But the capacity is at least 160,Capacity not make full use of."ZhaoJian said.

　　北京交通大学运输经济理论与政策研究所常务副所长李红昌昨日在接受早报记者采访时表示，中国要进一步加大铁路建设是不争的事实，他主张要以货运铁路、城际铁路、地方性铁路为主。

Beijing jiaotong university transportation economic theory and policy institute vice director LiGongChang yesterday morning in an interview with reporters said,China will further increase the railway construction is an indisputable fact,He advocated to freight railway/Inter-city railway/Local railway is given priority to.

　　赵坚认为，未来高铁建设会越来越多，他倒并不担心安全的问题，但是铁道部的债务负担日益沉重，“问题是投资这些资产是不是能够创造收入。”

ZhaoJian think,The future will be more and more high iron construction,But he is not worried about security,But the growing burden of debt,"The problem is investment these assets will be able to create income."