作为运动员，能夺得一块奥运会金牌可能是毕生的梦想，而若能夺得一届奥运会的第一块金牌，意义则更加重大。

As a player，Can win a piece of the Olympic gold medal is probably always dream about，And if you can win the first gold medal of the games，Meaning is much more important。

　　然而，从1984年洛杉矶奥运会到2008年北京奥运会，7届大赛的首金都爆出冷门，事先被普遍看好的热门运动员乃至奥运卫冕冠军都纷纷落败，奥运首金“大热必死”的魔咒一直延续至今。

however，From the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles to the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games，7 th series in the first gold capital unpopular，The heavily favored in advance of the popular athletes and even the Olympic champions have lost the battle，The first Olympic gold“Big heat will die”The spell of has continued ever since。

　　由于奥运会的赛程安排，目前首金都会产生于射击项目。作为传统射击强国的中国，也是每每派出热门选手争夺首金，但都未能破除魔咒。

Because of the Olympic Games schedule，At present the first gold capital will be with project shooting。As a traditional Chinese shooting powers，Also is often sent popular player for the first gold，But have failed to break the spell。

　　4年前在北京，中国军团派出了雅典奥运会首金获得者杜丽，誓为东道主在家门口夺下首金。但天不遂人愿，一代名将最终连奖牌都没能获得。而今年，这一重任落在小将易思玲身上。

Four years ago in Beijing，Chinese legion sent the Athens Olympic Games first gold DuLi winner，For the hosts won in a doorway oath first gold。But it didn't work out，A generation's final medal haven't been able to get even。And this year，This mission fell in the teenager YiSiLing body。

预测 夺冠大热门 恐怕再失金 Predict a disapoiting I'm afraid to lose gold

　　伦敦奥运会，首金还是在射击女子10米气步枪项目上产生。该项目的夺冠大热门是中国名将易思玲。

London Olympic Games，The first gold or in the women's 10 m air rifle shooting on projects produce。The project is a disapoiting China's YiSiLing。

　　易思玲是过去两年该项目上发挥最为出色的运动员之一。2010年慕尼黑世锦赛，她以505.6环的成绩夺冠，同年的广州亚运会和今年的射击亚锦赛，她又两度斩获该项目金牌。

YiSiLing is in the past two years the project into play on one of the most wonderful athletes。The 2010 Munich world championships，She won the result with 505.6 ring，The same year of guangzhou Asian and this year's shooting Asian baseball championship，She and two-time winners in this project the gold medal。

　　目前，易思玲在该项目上排名世界第一。她的对手主要是排名世界第二的德国名将普菲尔施芙特和第三名的捷克选手卡特琳娜·埃蒙斯。

At present，In this project YiSiLing ranked first in the world。Her opponent is mainly in the world of the German star was at phil's third eve and the Czech player katrina · AiMengSi。

　　本报统计了2009年以来这三位争夺伦敦奥运首金选手的重要比赛成绩。可以看出，在这三个人的平均成绩上，捷克选手卡特琳娜·埃蒙斯具有一定的优势。

The survey of 2009 years since the three London for the first Olympic gold of the important players match result。Can see，In the three men on average scores，The Czech player katrina · AiMengSi has some of the advantage。

　　通过对历史成绩的统计计算，我们预测卡特琳娜·埃蒙斯夺冠的可能性大。

Through the statistical calculation result of history，We predict katrina AiMengSi · the possibility of the title。

　　尽管从近4年的总体状态来看，易思玲表现更加稳定，在世界杯上共获得4次冠军、4次亚军，并且11次进入决赛，但首次参加奥运会的她未必能顶住压力，一举打破缠绕几十年的魔咒。

Although from nearly four years of overall state and see，YiSiLing more stable performance，In the World Cup winning altogether four championships、4 second place finishes，And 11 times into the final，But to take part in the Olympic Games for the first time she may not be able to resist pressure，Every break winding decades of spell。

小魔咒 Little spell

年轻的夺冠 The title of the young

　　近7届奥运会中，除2000年外，最终获得奥运首金的选手都比夺冠热门选手要年轻。就连2004年时同为22岁的杜丽，也比赵颖慧要小几个月。

Nearly 7 th Olympic Games，In addition to the 2000 outer，Eventually get the first Olympic gold of players than favourites to young players。Even in 2004 with the DuLi 22 years old，Also ZhaoYingHui than to small a few months。

　　而从年龄段分析，1984年，斯卡纳卡尔以50岁“高龄”成为年纪最大的首金热门选手。而从1988年的莱切娃开始，首金热门选手的年纪大幅下降，2000年悉尼奥运会时来自中国的热门选手赵颖慧只有18岁。

From the analysis of the age，1984 years，State in 50 years old, Carl“-old”Become the oldest first gold popular player。And in 1988 from lecce start dolls，The first gold popular player age down dramatically，The 2000 Sydney Olympic Games from China when ZhaoYingHui hot players only 18 years old。

解读 interpretation

　　黑马频出 Dark horse PinChu

　　热门选手 Popular player

　　难登领奖台 Difficult on the podium

　　纵观过去的7届奥运会，赛前被寄予厚望的热门运动员，无一例外地折戟沉沙。除了自身发挥不稳定的因素外，黑马频繁出现也是这些热门爆冷的原因。

Throughout the past 7 th Olympic Games，Pre-match might be expected of the popular athletes，Without exception, SheJiChenSha。In addition to their own play outside factors of instability，The black horse frequent is also the cause of these hot shock。

　　说到黑马，就不得不提夺得中国奥运历史首金的许海峰。1984年洛杉矶奥运会，外界对时隔多年重回奥运大家庭的中国运动员实力都不了解。

Said to the black horse，Have to mention won the Olympic history of China's first gold xu haifeng。Of the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles，To the outside world to return to the family of these years the Chinese athletes strength didn't know。

　　最终，许海峰的爆冷夺冠给东道主来了个措手不及。因为主办者完全没想到中国能有两名运动员同时登上领奖台，所以当时没准备两面中国国旗，为此，颁奖仪式不得不推迟举行。

finally，Xu haifeng won the shock to hosts to a flat-footed。Because the don't think China can have two athletes and podium finish，So that I was not ready to be two sides Chinese flag，For this，The award ceremony had to be postponed。

　　自1984年后，数届奥运会黑马频出，赛前被公认的热门运动员最终能站上领奖台都属于万幸。

Since 1984，Several th Olympic Games PinChu dark horse，Before the game is recognized the popular athletes can eventually podium at all belong to a troop。

　　魔咒在一个个四年中轮回，成为几代名将的梦魇。但与此同时，一些无名小将却在关键时刻无声处听惊雷，“众目睽睽下”夺走首金。

Spell at every four years in metempsychosis，Become a few generations of star nightmare。But at the same time，Some unknown teenager at key moments in but silent listen to thunder，“Under the eyes of the”Take the first gold。

　　2004年，中国派出实力超群、经验丰富的赵颖慧，然而老将威力不再、颗粒无收。倒是初出茅庐的杜丽最终站上了最高领奖台。

2004 years，China sent a super strength、The experienced ZhaoYingHui，But veteran power no longer、Particles no charge。It seems DuLi finally on the highest podium。

　　但是，四年之后转战北京，已经成名已久的杜丽也没能逃出魔咒，在首金的争夺中，她最终只名列第五，冠军被捷克运动员埃蒙斯获得。(李一男 隗硕 张珺)

but，Four years after Beijing moving，Already famous already a long time of DuLi also can't escape spell，In the race for the first gold，She finally only ranks fifth，Champions were the Czech republic AiMengSi athletes get。(LiYiNan KuiShuo ZhangJun)