今年“十一”黄金周期间，国民出游热出现“井喷”。特别值得注意的是，这种“井喷”现象是在国内经济增速下行压力明显的不利经济环境下发生的。旅游经济为何逆势增长，它对我国今后转变经济增长方式有何启示，值得深思。

This year"eleven"During the golden week,The national travel hot appear"blowout".Of particular note is,this"blowout"The phenomenon was in domestic economic growth down pressure obvious adverse economic environment of happened.Tourism economy why contrarian growth,It to our country the future change the mode of economic growth have any enlightenment,Worth pondering.

　　笔者认为，今年“十一”黄金周旅游市场的“井喷”现象是在经济持续发展、社会物质生活日益富足的背景下，国民消费需要在有利的政策催化下迅速转化为现实需求的结果。顺应这种潜在的旅游消费需要，创造各种有利条件使其能更有效地转化为现实消费需求，可成为我国未来促内需的重要途径。

The author thinks that,This year"eleven"Golden week travel market"blowout"Phenomenon is the sustained economic development/Social material life has become increasingly rich background,National consumption need in the favorable policy catalytic rapidly into realistic demand results.Comply with this potential tourism consumption needs,Create favorable conditions to make it more effectively into reality consumption demand,In our country in the future can become an important way to promote domestic demand.

　　首先，近年来国民人均可支配收入水平不断提升，由此带来了日趋强烈的高层次消费需要，其中有着较明显共性特征的，除了当前已非常突出的住房、汽车外，还有旅游消费需要。

First of all,In recent years the national per capita disposable income level continuously improve,This brought increasingly strong high-level consumption needs,Which is more obvious generality characteristic,In addition to the current already very prominent housing/The car,And tourism consumption needs.

　　根据马斯洛的“需求层次理论”，人的需求由低到高可划分为五个层次，其中底部的四种需要（生理需要、安全需要、归属和爱的需要、尊重的需要）可称为缺乏型需要，只有在满足了这些需要个体才能感到基本上舒适，顶部的需要（自我实现需要）可称之为成长型需要。旅游在需求层次上接近于自我实现需要，属于较高层次需要，因此必须基于一定的物质基础。根据世界银行的统计数据，中国2011年人均国民总收入达4930美元，已成为中高等收入国家，但相比欧美发达国家旅游业支出占GDP比重超过10%的水平，我国旅游业支出占GDP的比重在2011年才刚刚越过4%。这意味着随着物质基础逐步增强，我国国民潜在旅游需求不断上升，但现实的旅游消费需求仍然处于较低水平。在不断缩小与欧美发达国家之间的经济发展水平差距的同时，我国国民未来旅游消费需求势必将持续快速提升。

According to maslow's"Hierarchy of needs",Man's needs from low to high can be divided into five levels,The bottom four kind of need(Physiological need/Security needs/Ownership and love needs/Respect need)Can be called lack of type need,Only in satisfy these needs individual can feel comfortable basically,The top of the need to(Self-realization need)Can call growth needs.Tourism in demand level close to self-realization need,Belong to a higher level need,Therefore, it must be based on a certain material foundation.According to the world bank statistics data,China in 2011 per capita gross national income of us $4930,Has become a higher income in the country,But compared with the European and American developed country tourism spending accounts for more than 10% of the GDP level,Our country tourism spending accounts for the proportion of GDP in 2011 to just over 4%.This means that as material foundation escalate,China's national potential tourism rising demand,But the reality of the tourism consumption demand is still in a lower level.In the shrinking and the European and American developed country between the level of economic development gap at the same time,Our national future tourism consumption demand will be a sustained, rapid and ascension.

　　其次，潜在旅游需要转化为现实消费需求，不仅需要消费者具备一定的支付能力，还需要消费者能够有足够的闲暇时间可用于旅游度假。从供给上看，潜在的旅游需要想转化为现实消费需求，也必须有足够的、条件适合的旅游消费供给方可成行，如合理的旅游交通费用、公平的景区景点收费等。

secondly,Potential tourism needs into reality consumption demand,Need not only consumers have a certain ability to pay,Still need to consumer can have enough free time can be used to travel on holiday.Look from the supply,Potential tourism need to want to be transformed into consumer demand,Also must have enough/Conditions suitable for tourist consumption supply booking,Such as reasonable tourism transportation expenses/Fair tourist attractions charges and so on.

　　最后，顺应国民因消费升级所带来的旅游需求，创造各种有利条件使之能持续有效地转化为现实的消费需求，可成为我国未来转变经济增长方式、由出口拉动转向内需拉动的重要途径。

finally,Conform to the national because of consumer upgrades brought about by the tourism demand,Create favorable condition can continue to effectively into realistic demand,Can become China's future change the mode of economic growth/From exports to domestic demand pull the important way.

　　我国巨大的人口基数、地大物博的自然地理、丰富多样的社会人文、远低于欧美发达国家的旅游支出占GDP比重，决定了未来国内旅游市场存在着巨大发展潜力，旅游经济必将成为我国未来拉动内需的重要途径。在当前国内房价过高、汽车消费面临资源瓶颈，出口拉动经济的增长路径难以为继的背景下，更凸显出发展旅游经济的重要意义。

China's huge population base/Vast territory and abundant resources of geography/Rich variety of social and cultural/Far below the European and American developed country tourism spending accounts for the proportion of GDP,Determines the future domestic tourism market there was a huge development potential,Tourism economy in our country in the future will become an important way of stimulating domestic demand.In the current domestic prices too high/Auto face resource bottleneck,Exports economic growth path under the background of unsustainable,More highlights the significance of the development of tourism economy.

　　为更好地发挥旅游经济对内需的拉动作用，笔者认为，可以进一步从需求形成和供给优化两个方面进行改进和完善旅游政策。一是顺应当前国民旅游需求快速上升的现实，为旅游需求转化为现实需求提供必要的条件，如进一步延长法定假期和做实“带薪休假制度”等；二是从社会整体经济效益角度考虑，通过政府政策改变当前许多景区景点收费过高的现状，降低旅游消费门槛，优化旅游供给；三是进一步规范旅游市场，对“欺客”、“宰客”等严重影响旅游市场正常发展的恶性行为进行严管，化解国民对旅游的种种顾虑；四是从文化宣传上对国民的旅游消费需求予以支持和鼓励，引导国民形成适当的旅游消费文化，使得旅游经济能持续稳定可靠地拉动内需。

In order to make use of tourism economy on domestic demand pull role,The author thinks that,From the demand can be further formation and supply optimization two aspects of improving and perfecting tourism policy.One is to conform to the current national travel demand a rapid rise in reality,For travel demand into reality needs to provide the necessary conditions,If further extend the statutory holidays and do real"Paid vacation system", etc;Two from social overall economic benefit point of view,Through the government policy to change the current many tourist attractions overcharging the present situation,Reduce the tourism consumption threshold,Optimization of tourism supply;Three is to further regulate the tourist market,to"QiKe"/"Rip off"And seriously affect the normal development of the tourism market for standard malignant behavior,Resolve to a variety of national tourism concerns;Four from cultural and propaganda on national tourism consumption demand to support and encouragement,Guide national form appropriate tourism consumption culture,Make tourism economy can continue to stable and reliable to stimulating domestic demand.

　　作者：华西证券研究所 沙伟斌

The author:ShaWeiBin west China securities research institute