四大航空集团无一“幸免于难” Four major aviation group no"survived"

　　从武广高铁到京沪高铁，民航业经受的来自高铁的冲击已经屡见不鲜。尽管如此，2012年12月20日开通的京广高铁，还是让航空公司倒吸了一口凉气。

From the wuhan-guangzhou high iron to beijing-shanghai high iron,The civil aviation from the impact of high iron have become common.Even so,In December 2012, and the opening of the jingguang high iron,Let airlines fall after a gasp.

　　《中国经营报》记者调查的结果显示，以京广高铁途经的郑州市为例，在2013年1月1日至6日的时间维度中，北京-郑州航线上，国航的班次同比下降了7%，南航则下降了32%。

[China business newspaper]The result that the reporter investigates display,With its high iron jingguang zhengzhou as an example,On January 1, 2013 to 6, the time dimension,Beijing - zhengzhou route,The divisions of the Air China fell 7% year-on-year,China southern airlines, fell by 32%.

　　一直以来，关于“高铁撼民航”的讨论不绝于耳，然而高铁对于民航真正的影响却鲜有量化的统计研究。伴随着京广高铁的开通，记者独家获得的数据显示，在北京-郑州航线航空公司的客运量同比下降39%，而北京-广州航线的客运量则仅下降4%。

Has been,about"High iron our civil aviation"Discussion can be heard,However high iron for civil aviation real influence, but few quantitative statistical research.With the opening of jingguang high iron,Reporter exclusive obtained data display,In Beijing to zhengzhou route airline passenger capacity 39% year-on-year drop,And the Beijing - guangzhou airline passenger capacity is only decreased by 4%.

　　铁路冲击即时显现 Railway impact appeared immediately

　　2013年1月1日至1月6日，在北京-郑州航线，航空公司的客运量同比下降39%，票价同比下降33%。

On January 1, 2013 to January 6,,In Beijing to zhengzhou route,Airline passenger capacity 39% year-on-year drop,Ticket prices 33% year-on-year drop.

　　作为南方航空[微博](3.85,-0.07,-1.79%)股份有限公司的一名营销员工，李莫(化名)已经经历了几次高铁带来的冲击。他印象最深的是2009年底武广高铁的开通。

As a China southern airlines [micro bo](3.85,0.07,1.79% -)Co., LTD., a marketing staff,Li mo(alias)Have experienced a few next to the impact of iron.Him the deepest impression is the end of 2009 the opening of wuhan-guangzhou high iron.

　　“(武广)高铁开通那一天，我们公司飞往武汉的航班销售情况几乎成为大家见面时的问候语。”李莫告诉记者，在南航内部，“广州武汉”的航班是销售效益不错的一条航线，高铁的出现改变了这种格局。

"(wuhan-guangzhou)High iron open that day,Our company to wuhan flight sales almost become everybody met greeting."Li mo told reporters,At the China southern internal,"Guangzhou wuhan"Flight is sales benefit good a route,The emergence of high iron changed the pattern.

　　一年后，南航成为受到武广高铁冲击最大的航空公司。以受影响最大的广州-长沙段为例，航空客运量下降了48%，票价下降了15%，航班从每天的11.5班锐减到3班。

A year later,China southern airlines become connecting by high iron impact's largest airline.The most affected by the guangzhou - changsha section as an example,Aviation passenger capacity fell 48%,Ticket prices fell 15%,Flights every day from 11.5 class reduced by class 3.

　　“有了前车之鉴，你可以想象公司对于京广高铁的态度。”李莫告诉记者，在京广高铁开通前夕公司就已经做了预案，涉及机票营销、航班缩减等一系列方面。

"The lessons drawn from others' mistakes,You can imagine to the beijing-guangzhou high iron attitude."Li mo told reporters,On the eve of the opening of the beijing-guangzhou high iron company has already made a plan,Ticket marketing in/Flight reduction and a series of aspects.

　　与南航心理相同的航空公司不在少数。“一般某条新高铁开通三五天内，航空公司就会迅速对此做出反应，或者调低票价，或者削减航班，而大多数时候则是一边调低票价，一边削减航班。”一位在航空业浸淫多年的业内人士告诉记者。

And China southern airlines is not the same mental minority."Usually a high iron opened within 35 days,Airlines will quickly react to this,Or lower ticket prices,Or cut flights,And most of the time is lower side of the ticket,Side cut flights."A in the airline industry with many years of the personage inside course of study tells a reporter.

　　现在的航空公司似乎学得更加聪明和反应迅速——在京广高铁开通当天，郑州至北京的机票甚至卖出了1.7折118元。

Now the airlines seem to learn more intelligent and to respond quickly - in the jingguang high iron Open Day,Zhengzhou to Beijing ticket even sold 1.7 fold 118 yuan.

　　京广高铁对于航空公司的冲击有多大？它会不会又成为一个扼杀航空公司盈利血脉的魔咒？

Jingguang high iron for airlines how much impact?It will also become a kill airlines profit the spell of blood?

　　在行业内尚无定论之时，记者获得的一组数据显示，京广高铁对航空公司的冲击已经不可小觑。时间以2013年1月1日至1月6日作为维度，在北京-郑州航线，航空公司的客运量同比下降39%，票价同比下降33%；在北京-武汉航线，客运量下降28%，票价下降9%；在北京-长沙航线，客运量下降16%，票价下降15%。

In the industry of uncertainty,Reporters have a set of data display,Jingguang high iron on the impact of the airlines have cannot small gaze.Time to January 1, 2013 to January 6, as a dimension,In Beijing to zhengzhou route,Airline passenger capacity 39% year-on-year drop,Ticket prices 33% year-on-year drop;In Beijing - wuhan route,Passenger capacity fell by 28%,Ticket prices fell by 9%;In Beijing - changsha route,Passenger capacity fell by 16%,Ticket prices fell by 15%.

　　而在这些航线中运营的航空公司涉及国航、东航、南航和海航，即俗称的四大航空集团几乎无一“幸免于难”。

And in the course of operation in Air China airlines/China Eastern airlines/China southern and can get to the hna's,That is commonly known as the four major aviation group almost without"survived".

　　“这与行业内的理论研究大致相同，即航空公司500公里以内的航线，对于高铁完全没有招架之力；800公里左右，航空公司可以削减运力勉强应对；而1500公里左右的航线，航空公司的优势比高铁明显，几乎不会受到高铁冲击。”上述业内人士对记者分析。

"This in the industry and the study of the theory of the roughly the same,Which airlines flights within 500 miles,For high iron no choise but to force;About 800 kilometers,Airlines may cut capacity forced to deal with;And 1500 km course,The airline's advantage than high iron obviously,Almost won't be high iron impact."The above the personage inside course of study to reporters analysis.

　　这与此前民航局局长李家祥公布的研究结果如出一辙：在500公里以内高铁对民航的冲击达到50%以上；500公里～800公里高铁对民航的冲击达到30%以上，1000公里以内高铁对民航的冲击大约是20%，1500公里大约是10%，1500公里以上没有影响。

The previous civil aviation administration director Eric study published the same:Within about 500 km high iron on the impact of the civil aviation above 50%;500 km to 800 km high iron on the impact of the civil aviation above 30%,Within 1000 kilometers high iron on the impact of the civil aviation is about 20%,1500 miles (kilometers) is about 10%,More than 1500 miles (kilometers) have no effect.

　

　航空公司的竞争与竞合 The airline's competition and competition

　　在高铁开通后，航空公司在竞争航线上加大航班密度，试图与其一争高低。航空公司对待高铁的另一种战术则是竞合。

High in iron after opening,Airlines in the competition route to increase the density of flight,Trying to and one for high and low.Airlines treat high iron another tactic is competition.

　　自2009年以来，中国的航空市场就一直高速发展。但也正是2009年以后，航空公司就不断活在“高铁来了”的阴影下。

Since 2009,China's aviation market has been rapid development.But it is also 2009 years later,Airlines have been living in"HSR to the"Under the shadow of.

　　对于高铁，航空公司曾经有截然不同的两种态度。其一是反其道而行之，在高铁开通后，航空公司在竞争航线上加大航班密度，试图与其一争高低。

For high iron,Airlines have two kinds of disparate attitudes.One is on the contrary,High in iron after opening,Airlines in the competition route to increase the density of flight,Trying to and one for high and low.

　　比如国航和南航在热门航线上都推出了“空中快线”产品。以武汉-北京的航班为例，航空公司每天的航班量保持在20班以上，白天几乎做到了半小时一班。而且新增飞机也是以往用来执飞国际航线的大飞机。

Such as Air China and China southern airlines in the route are introduced"Air express"products.In wuhan - Beijing flight as an example,Airlines daily HangBanLiang keep in more than twenty class,The day is almost done half hour.And new aircraft is ever fresh international routes to the plane.

　　饶是如此，快线的客座率却始终不尽如人意。“可以说，航空公司依靠加大航班密度，试图以频次取胜高铁的做法几乎完全失败。”上述业内人士如此评论。

Rao is so,Fast line 客座率 but always not satisfactory."Can say,Aviation companies rely on increasing the density of flight,Trying to frequency to win high iron practice almost completely failed."The above the personage inside course of study such comments.

　　航空公司对待高铁的另一种战术则是竞合。以东航为例，早在2011年初东航就宣布要率先推动空铁联运，以长三角地区作为试点，实行两种运输方式网络的无缝连接，甚至订座系统互通。

Airlines treat high iron another tactic is competition.In China, for example,In early 2011 China Eastern airlines, announced that it would take the lead in promoting empty rail transport,With the long triangle area as a pilot,The two kinds of mode of transportation network seamless connection,Even booking system communication.

　　此后不久，南航相关人士也告诉记者，南航将考虑与高铁开展更多、更深层次的合作，譬如实施机票与火车票的联运、IT系统对接、航空铁路行李联运等。

Soon after,China southern airlines relevant personage also told reporters,China southern airlines will consider and high iron for more/Deeper cooperation,Such as the implementation of the train ticket ticket and transport/IT system butt/Aviation railway baggage transport etc.

　　然而时至今日，空铁联运却更像是一个美梦。“据我所知，某航空公司内部一直在和铁道局商谈合作事宜，但是很多技术问题难以解决。比如火车票并非实名制购买，如何保证‘一票到底’？而且利润分配也是一个难题。”一位接近东航的高层人士坦率表示，以中国铁道部的国企风格，合作很难推动， “空铁联运”大范围推行尚无时间表。

But today,Empty rail transport is more like a dream."As far as I know,Some airlines internal has been and railway bureau about cooperation,But many technical problems difficult to solve.Such as train ticket system is not to buy,How to guarantee‘A vote on’?And profit distribution is also a problem."A close to China's top people frank said,China's ministry of railways in the state-owned enterprise style,Cooperation is difficult to promote, "Empty iron transport"There is no timetable for a wide range of implementation.

　　石家庄机场也于日前推出了“空铁联运”产品，俗称“周边七座城市旅客通过高铁到石家庄机场坐飞机报销高铁票”，前5日联运旅客已突破千人。然而这种“空铁联运”并非建立在快捷衔接的中转流程上，本质上是机票的打折让利，长期来看可能难以为继。

Shijiazhuang airport in has introduced"Empty iron transport"products,Commonly known as"Seven cities surrounding passengers through the high iron to shijiazhuang airport on a plane to submit an expense account high iron ticket",The first five days through passenger has reached one thousand people.However, this kind of"Empty iron transport"Is not based on fast on the transfer processes,Is essentially a ticket discount of the profits,In the long term may be unsustainable.

　　相比之下，国内唯一的廉价航空公司春秋航空走的却是第三条路。

Compared with,The only cheap airlines in the spring and autumn airlines go is the third road.

　　“从2008年开始，春秋航空就开始布局，尽量开拓长航线和国际航线以避免国内高铁的冲击。”春秋航空新闻发言人张武安告诉记者，春秋航空的目标是在2013年将国际航线的飞行小时比例拓展至20%。

"Starting from 2008,In the spring and autumn airlines began to layout,Try to develop long route and route to avoid the impact of domestic high iron."In the spring and autumn airlines ZhangWuAn spokesman told reporters,In the spring and autumn airlines goals in 2013 international airline flight hours scale development to 20%.

　　而航空公司也开始了转型之路。“受制于高铁的冲击，航空公司今后航线布局的大方向基本是西部航线、支线航线，以及国际航线。”东航前董秘罗祝平坦言。

And airlines also started the transformation road."Subject to the impact of high iron,Airlines route layout in general is the basic course/Feeder route,And international routes."China Eastern airlines LuoZhuPing secret before dong said.

　　事实上，高铁对于民航的冲击已经有目共睹。根据中国《中长期铁路网规划》，到2020年铁路建设投资总规模将突破5万亿元，营业里程将超过12万公里。面对高铁的冲击，航空公司是黯然退场还是竞争到底？航空公司已经走到了十字路口。

In fact,High iron for the impact of the civil aviation is evident.According to the Chinese[Long-term railway network planning],By 2020 the total scale of railway construction investment will break 5 trillion yuan,Business mileage will be more than 120000 kilometers.Facing the impact of high iron,The airline is the dim out or competition?Airlines have a crossroad.

　　“没有航空公司能够不受到高铁的冲击。”交通运输部政策咨询小组成员田保华称，但是高铁并没有想象中的可怕。根据他的测算，每公里高铁需要耗资2500万元人民币，再加上车厢、耗电等费用，“我认为高铁要想盈利，就必须将票价提到民航的水平。”

"No airlines can not by the impact of high iron."The traffic department of transportation policy advisory group members TianBaoHua says,But high iron and is not as terrible.According to his measure,Every km high iron need to cost 25 million yuan RMB,Plus car/Power consumption and cost,"I think high iron to profit,It must will fare to the level of civil aviation."