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中国体操奥运形势分析:团体有优势 全能没希望--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-18
男团拼日本 女团望夺牌 NanTuan spell at Japan took tanacu CARDS
体操团体金牌分量最重,中国男队是夺冠大热门,女队则是奖牌的有力竞争者。
The team gold medal component heaviest,China is the favorite to win,The women of the medal contender is。
北京奥运会之后,随着杨威、李小鹏、黄旭等退役,中国男队的整体实力有所下滑,领先优势也在持续缩减。自雅典奥运会起,男团之争一直在中国和日本之间展开。2009年体操世锦赛在伦敦举行,中国男队从北京奥运会时领先日本队7.25分,缩小为1.228分。去年的东京体操世锦赛,中国队赢了日本队2.068分,日本队在最后一项的单杠比赛中有两次掉杠。据专家计算,如果日本队没有掉杠,则中国队仅领先0.068分。可以说,中日男团经过6年角逐,差距已缩小到最低值。加上伦敦奥运会的竞赛规则改为533,对参赛者的全能能力要求更高。
The Beijing Olympic Games,As YangWei、LiXiaoPeng、HuangXu retired, etc,The overall strength of the China slipped,Lead continues to shrink。Since the Athens Olympic Games,NanTuan struggle between China and Japan have been on。2009 world gymnastics championships held in London,China from the Beijing Olympic Games lead Japan 7.25 points,Down to 1.228 points。Last year's Tokyo world gymnastics championships,China won the Japanese team 2.068 points,The Japanese team in the last of a high bar game is two off poles。According to expert calculation,If Japan did not fall poles,China is up only 0.068 points。Can say,The NanTuan after six years in competition,Gap has narrowed to lowest。With London's Olympic competition rules to 533,The ability of the almighty higher requirements。
于是,外界担心中国队有可能会失去男团金牌。不过,从个人能力来看,中国男队在多个项目仍有优势。在东京世锦赛,中国队客场作战还是赢了日本队。主场作战却未能把握良机,对日本队的信心是一个打击。正常发挥,中国男队依然有优势。
so,It is feared that China is likely to lose NanTuan gold medal。but,From personal ability to see,China in the multiple projects still have an advantage。World championships in Tokyo,China road or win the Japanese team。But failed to grasp the opportunity home games,The confidence of the Japanese team is a blow。Normal play,China still has the advantage。
中国女队在2006年世锦赛首次夺得女团冠军,2008年奥运会凭借主场优势首次夺得女团桂冠。随着程菲退出,中国女队的整体实力下降,尤其是跳马已成为短板。比如规则规定,女子跳马后直转体900度D分(难度分)为6.5,后直720度D分为5.8分,美国队出场的3名队员都能做900度,俄罗斯队理论上也有两人能做900度,但中国队参加世锦赛的3名队员都跳720度。换言之,中国队在D分上输美国队2.1分,输俄罗斯队1.4分。女团冠军的争夺主要是在美国、俄罗斯和去年欧锦赛冠军罗马尼亚之间展开,中国女队的目标是一枚奖牌。要夺金,除非有奇迹发生。
The Chinese women's team for the first time in the 2006 world champion won tanacu,The 2008 Olympic Games with home advantage won the title for the first time tanacu。Cheng fei exit with,The overall strength of the Chinese women's team down,Especially the vaulting horse has become short board。Such as rules,Women's vault until after the swivel 900 degrees D points(Difficulty points)For 6.5,Straight 720 degrees D into 5.8 points,The United States played three members can do 900 degrees,Russia also has two people in theory can do 900 degrees,But the team participated in the world championships in three players jump 720 degrees。In other words,China team in D points on team USA lost 2.1 points,Russia lost 1.4 points。The race for the title tanacu is mainly in the United States、Russia and the European championship last year between Romania on,The Chinese women's team is the goal of a medal。To win gold,Unless there is a miracle。
单项有优势 全能没希望 Single have advantage to did not hope almighty
中国体育阴盛阳衰,中国体操却一直是阳盛阴衰。在伦敦,中国体操单项争金的希望还是要押宝男队。中国队在吊环、双杠、单杠、自由操有很强实力,而鞍马、跳马因为肖钦的落选和李小鹏的退役,已成为中国队的弱项。
Chinese sports Yin flourishes while Yang declines,Chinese gymnastics has been YangCheng Yin failure。In London,For the Chinese gymnastics single gold hope or to the bets。China team in rings、Parallel bars、Horizontal bar、ZiYouCao have very strong strength,And pommel horse、The vaulting horse because of lost the election and LiXiaoPeng xiao retirement,Has become China's weaknesses。
陈一冰的吊环是最稳的项目。尽管意大利的莫兰迪和荷兰的范杰尔德在难度上已与陈一冰持平,同为世界最高难度,但他们的完成质量分与陈一冰有很大差距。邹凯和张成龙的单杠成套动作难度为世界最高,是去年世锦赛单杠的冠亚军。在自由操上,邹凯和张成龙也完全具备挑战内村航平的实力。传统强项双杠,冯喆是最大热门之一。如果发挥正常,中国男队应能在单项收获3至4金。
Chen yibing's rings are the most stability of project。Despite the Italian giorgio di and Dutch FanJieEr DE in difficulty has and Chen yibing flat,For the world with the highest difficulty,But their complete quality points and Chen yibing had the very big disparity。ZouKai and ZhangChengLong complete sets of difficulty of movement of the high bar for the world's highest,Last year the world championships is high bar one。In the ZiYouCao,ZouKai and ZhangChengLong also include all the challenges in the strength of the village navigation flat。Traditional strengths parallel bars,冯喆 is one of the most popular。If play normal,China should be the single harvest in 3 to 4 gold。
女子单项夺金点是平衡木和高低杠。去年世锦赛,眭禄和姚金男包揽平衡木冠亚军,加上邓琳琳,中国女队在这一项目有整体优势。高低杠卫冕冠军何可欣的成套动作的最高难度7.4分,为目前世界最高。只要她正常发挥,金牌希望就很大。
Women's single our gold MEDALS is balance beam and asymmetrical bars。World championships last year,SuiLu and YaoJinNan swept the final balance beam,Plus DengLinLin,The Chinese women's team in this project has the whole advantage。Defending champion HeKeXin uneven set of movement of the highest difficulty 7.4 points,For now the world's highest。As long as her normal exertion,The gold medal hope is very big。
此外,姚金男和黄秋爽的高低杠也具备了夺牌冲金的实力。不过,平衡木和高低杠都是偶然性较大的项目,谁也不敢保证自己能在比赛中不出现闪失。
In addition,YaoJinNan and the uneven HuangQiuShuang are also provided with the strength of the gold card rushed away。but,Balance beam and asymmetrical bars are contingency major program,Who can't ensure that he can play appear mishap。
近年来,日本男队在内村航平的带领下进步明显,涌现出多名全能型选手。内村航平的全能实力更是独树一帜,他在去年世锦赛团体中的全能分竟达到94.9分。相反,中国男队在杨威之后全能型人才极度匮乏。如无意外,男子全能将落入日本队手中。女子全能的争夺也主要集中在美国和俄罗斯选手。
In recent years,Japan, the village under the guidance of aerospace flat definitely improving,More than players refer to emerge。Navigation within the almighty power village flat is unique,His last year in the group to world championships in the almighty that points to 94.9 points。instead,China in the YangWei versatile talents after extremely deficient。If no accident,Men will fall into the hand of the mighty。The women's all-around so the battle in the United States and Russia mainly focused on player。
特约记者 梁非提供
Special reporter LiangFei provided
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