1984年，中国女排夺得洛杉矶奥运会金牌，“女排精神”曾被运动员们视为刻苦奋斗的标杆和座右铭；1996年，中国男篮首次闯进奥运会八强，无数痴情球迷为之落泪，为之振奋；2001年，中国男足首次打进世界杯决赛圈，整个中国更是陷入了欢乐的海洋……

1984 years，Chinese women's volleyball team won the Los Angeles the Olympic gold medal，“Women's volleyball team spirit”Was the athletes as hard struggle of benchmarking and motto；1996 years，The Olympic Games for the first time China men's basketball team into the quarterfinals，Countless spoony fans tears，The exciting for；2001 years，Chinese football with the World Cup finals for the first time，The whole of China is in joyful sea......

　　中国人有着浓厚的三大球情结，对于三大球拿金牌的渴望从来没有因为奥运金牌数量一天比一天多而有所降低。然而，2012年伦敦奥运会，中国很可能将迎来“史上最弱三大球”：男女足和男排早早出局无缘奥运，男女篮和女排均不提具体目标。伦敦奥运会，中国三大球不但参赛球队数量少，成绩估计也好不了。

Chinese people have a strong three big ball of complex，For the three big ball of the gold medal to never for winning Olympic gold than a day more than a day and reduced。however，The 2012 Olympic Games in London，China is likely to be welcomed“History's weak three ball”：Men and women and men volleyball team for full early exit to the games，Men and women's volleyball team's women's basketball team are not mention specific goals。London Olympic Games，China's three big ball not only teams competing less number，Results estimated or not。

【女排】 【Women's volleyball team】

全力突破“死亡之组” Effort to break through“Death group”

　　“如果你要拿冠军，就要准备打败所有的对手，分组只是早打晚打的问题。但中国女排现在不稳定因素太多。”——— 国际排联主席魏纪中

“If you want to win the league，Will be ready to beat all the competitors，Group just early late dozen play。But Chinese women's volleyball team now unstable factors too much。”-international player chairman jamie had wei

　　7月1日，2012年世界女排大奖赛总决赛落下帷幕，中国女排以一胜四负的战绩名列第五。值得一提的是，本次大奖赛中，中国队在与奥运“死亡之组”成员巴西、土耳其和美国三强的交手中无一胜绩，这或多或少给女排姑娘的奥运之路蒙上一层阴影。

July 1,，2012 world women's volleyball grand prix finals off the beaten track，Chinese women's volleyball team to victory four negative record was ranked fifth。It is，The grand prix，China team in and the Olympic Games“Death group”Members Brazil、Turkey and the United States to play against the big three in without a win，It's more or less to the women's volleyball team girl Olympic road cast a shadow。

　　北京奥运会后，中国女排开始呈现低迷状态。一是始终被伤病问题困扰，二是尚未完成新老交替，一度青黄不接，只要王一梅不上场，4号位几乎是弱不禁风。如果说在国际排坛，中国女排赢不了“大姐大”巴西，我们尚可说得过去，但是照目前情形看，即使在亚洲，中国女排也未必敢说第一。中国女排输给泰国的教训不能忽视，而韩国和日本现在也不是轻易就能赢的对手。

After the Beijing Olympic Games，Chinese women's volleyball team has a slowdown。One is always injury problems，2 it is is not yet complete new and old alternate，Rainy day once，As long as wang yimei without playing，4 a almost is fragile。If in the international PaiTan，Chinese women's volleyball team won't win“Big sister”Brazil，We fair said have to go，But as the current situation look，Even in Asia，Chinese women's volleyball team is not dare to say the first。Chinese women's volleyball team lost to Thailand's lessons could not be ignored，And South Korea and Japan now are not easily can win opponent。

　　值得注意的是，在奥运会上中国女排还有个不成文的“规律”——— 中国女排从来没有连续三届奥运会拿到奖牌。奥运史上，中国女排共拿到2枚金牌，此外还有1银2铜，其中1984年和1988年分别拿到1金1铜，之后就没有拿到奖牌，而最近两届奥运会，女排已先后斩获冠军和季军，走势如同1984年—1988年时间段。如今，中国女排又在伦敦奥运会上遭遇“死亡之组”，与美国、巴西、塞尔维亚、土耳其和韩国同在 B组。巴西、美国自然不用多说，中国队要想小组出线，主攻对象应该是另外3个对手，但就在两年前的世锦赛上，中国女排还曾连续输给实力比不上塞尔维亚的土耳其和韩国。照这样的形势看，中国女排的目标不是奖牌了，考虑一下如何小组出线才是当务之急。当然，也有乐观者认为，中国女排在大奖赛上的表现都是“虚假现象”，随着王一梅的复出，女排姑娘在伦敦肯定能有所作为。如果真能这样，那当然是我们乐意看到的。

Note the，Chinese women's volleyball team at the Olympic Games has a rule“law”---Chinese women's volleyball team never three consecutive Olympic Games get a medal。In Olympic history，Chinese women's volleyball team were to get the two gold MEDALS，In addition to a silver 2 copper，Among them in 1984 and 1988 to 1 gold, 1 bronze respectively，Then didn't get MEDALS，And the last two games，Women's volleyball team has successively gained ground champion and the third，Trends like 1984-1988 time frame。now，Chinese women's volleyball team and in the London games encounter“Death group”，And the United States、Brazil、Serbia、Turkey and South Korea with group B。Brazil、The United States need not say more natural，China to the group stages，Main attack object should be another three opponents，But just two years ago the fiba world championship，Chinese women's volleyball team had lost to strength can not compare with of continuous Serbia Turkey and South Korea。According to the situation look，Chinese women's volleyball team goal is not a medal，Consider how to the group stages is top priority。Of course，Also have optimists think，Chinese women's volleyball team at the performance of the grand prix“False phenomenon”，With the return of wang yimei，Women's volleyball team in London to be sure girl as。If I can do this，That is, of course, we would be happy to see。

【男篮】 【Men's basketball team】

能赢一场就是胜利 Can win a game is victory

　　“我希望去伦敦奥运会打出我们最好的水平，希望这样的表现能够让你们感到自豪，但是我不知道能不能好到去赢得比赛。”——— 中国男篮主教练邓华德

“I hope to go to London Olympic Games played up to our best level，Hope this performance can let you feel a sense of pride，But I don't know can be good to go to win the game。”- -China men's basketball team coach DengHua DE

　　除了女排，中国三大球中参加过1984年以来全部7届奥运会的只有男篮。翻开奥运参赛史，中国男篮的成绩还算说得过去：1996年、2004年和2008年，三届奥运会都获得了第8名，最差成绩是1992年巴塞罗那奥运会的第12名。伦敦奥运会，中国男篮仍是中国球迷关注的一大热点，但作为圈内人士，前山东男篮五虎将之一、现任山东省篮管中心副主任的纪敏尚对男篮的评价是：在伦敦，能赢一场就是胜利。

In addition to women's volleyball team，China's three big ball in since 1984 in all 7 th Olympic Games only men's basketball team。Turn the Olympic history，The Chinese men's basketball team performance is said to the past：1996 years、In 2004 and 2008，Three th Olympic Games are getting the name 8，The worst result is 1992 years the Barcelona games the 12,。London Olympic Games，China men's basketball team is still Chinese fans concern a big heat，But as a coterie，Shandong men's basketball team before one of five Iliad、LanGuan center of shandong province is the deputy director of the JiMin to men's basketball team is the evaluation：In London，Can win a game is victory。

　　和纪敏尚持相同悲观论调的不在少数。他们的论据很充分：在姚明退役之后，中国男篮只能依靠35岁的王治郅和在NBA打不上球的易建联，实力大打折扣，已经不再具备和欧美劲旅抗衡的资本。纪敏尚认为，在姚明退役之后，目前这支中国男篮无论是身体对抗能力还是整体作战能力，都和欧美强队有很大差距，同组的西班牙、巴西、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和英国，论实力都在中国队之上。再加上客场作战等客观因素，中国男篮在伦敦奥运会上要想进前八，难度极大。纪敏尚的看法是：“中国男篮在伦敦奥运会上只要能赢一场就是胜利。但作为男篮的球迷，只要中国男篮打出了精彩的比赛，即使小组不出线，我也就感到满意了。”

And JiMin still have the same's not few a pessimism。Their argument is very full：In yao after retirement，China men's basketball team can only rely on 35 year old wang zhizhi and in the NBA play ball on the yi，Strength to sell at a discount greatly，No longer have the capital giants and the European and American rival。JiMin still think，In yao after retirement，At present with the Chinese men's basketball team either physical countermeasures ability or overall combat capabilities，And the European and American teams have had the very big disparity，Of Spain in the group、Brazil、Australia、Russia and Britain，Theory in China on strength。Plus the objective factors such as road，China men's basketball team in the London games to into the top eight，Extremely hard。JiMin still view is：“China men's basketball team in the London games can as long as a win is a win。But as the men's basketball fans，And as long as China men's basketball team played some good football game，Even if the group is not qualify，I also feel satisfied。”

　　无独有偶，分管男篮的篮管中心副主任胡加时也曾这样表示，“伦敦奥运会的分组形势让我们无路可走，我们的目标就是打几场漂亮的球，标准就是2010年世锦赛的表现。我经常对队员说，‘你们打好每一场比赛，打出世锦赛的水平，球迷就会满意。’”

similarly，Responsible for the men's basketball team LanGuan, deputy director of the center has also said hu，“London's Olympic group situation that we have no choice，Our goal is to play a few games of goal，The standard is the performance of the world championships in 2010。I often said to players，‘You play every game，Hit the level of world championships，Fans will be satisfied。’”

　　值得一提的是，中国男篮争议主帅邓华德是一位福将：土耳其世锦赛上“被出线”，武汉男篮亚锦赛决赛一分险胜约旦……伦敦奥运会，曾在英国执教多年的邓华德会把“福气”再一次带给中国男篮吗？

It is，Chinese basketball coach DengHua DE dispute is a blessing：Turkey's world championships in Japan“Was to qualify”，Wuhan Asian baseball championship basketball final a points out Jordan...London Olympic Games，Once in England years of DengHua DE will take“blessing”Once again to bring China men's basketball team？

【女篮】 【Women's basketball team】

青黄不接 困难重重 Temporary shortage with difficulties

　　“中国女篮在伦敦奥运会上要想小组出线，就必须击败安哥拉女篮，再从土耳其或克罗地亚女篮身上拿下一场胜利，但目前看来，难度重重。”——— 中国女篮主教练孙凤武

“The Chinese women's basketball team in the London games to the group stages，It must beat Angola's women's basketball team，Again from Turkey or Croatia on women's basketball team get one victory，But now it looks，Difficulty with。”--the Chinese women's basketball team coach SunFengWu

　　本届奥运会中国女篮出征，只带了12名队员，她们也是报名参加伦敦奥运会的全部队员。2008年的北京奥运会，兵强马壮的中国女篮一举打进了四强，但如今人员短缺、青黄不接成了中国女篮最大的问题：隋菲菲退役，卞兰伤退，苗立杰、陈楠两位老将竞技状态已呈现下滑趋势，而高颂、纪妍妍、赵爽和魏伟等年轻队员在经验、技术等方面还存在严重不足。作为前山东女篮主教练，纪敏尚认为中国女篮在伦敦小组出线应该问题不大，但要想重演四年前北京奥运会的一幕，难度极大。伦敦奥运会上，中国女篮与美国、捷克、土耳其、克罗地亚和安哥拉分在一组。

The Chinese women's basketball team team at the Olympic Games，Bring only 12 players，They are also signed up to take part in London's Olympic all players。Of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games，The Chinese women's basketball team scored the array at the final four，But now shortages、Temporary shortage has become China's largest women's basketball team：SuiFeiFei retired，BianLan back injury，MiaoLiJie、ChenNan two veteran competitive state already tends to decline，And the high praise、JiYanYan、ZhaoShuang and wei wei, young players in the experience、Technology there serious insufficiency。As a former shandong women's basketball team coach，JiMin still think that the Chinese women's basketball team in London the group stages should be no problem，But to repeat the scene of Beijing Olympic Games four years ago，Extremely hard。London games，The Chinese women's basketball team and the United States、The Czech republic、Turkey、Croatia and Angola points in a group。

　　本报记者 王晓芳

Our reporter wang xiaofang