4年只在弹指间，北京奥运会上中国体育代表团连取51金的场景还历历在目，伦敦奥运会已经走到了我们眼前。这一次，中国体育代表团会交上怎样的答卷？舆论、专家乃至体育工作者自身，普遍认为51金绝对不可超越。没有了东道主身份，再加上新老交替、项目调整、规则修改等诸多因素，中国体育代表团的金牌总数必然大幅下降。总体来说，伦敦奥运金牌榜的主旋律还是中美之争，悬念在于，竞争会不会很激烈、差距会不会很小？

Four years in a swing only between，Beijing Olympic Games China sports delegation even take 51 golden scene still remember，The London Olympic Games has come to our eyes。This time，Chinese sports delegation will hand in how far？Public opinion、Experts and even sports workers themselves，Generally thought that 51 gold absolutely not beyond。Without the host nation identity，Plus the succession of the new to the old、Project adjustment、Rule changes, and many other factors，China sports delegation gold medal total inevitable decline sharply。overall，The London Olympic Games the theme of world or the struggle between China and the United States，Suspense is，Competition will not very fierce、Gap will not small？

从27到37 From 27 to 37

　　北京奥运会上，中国体育代表团取得了空前佳绩，不能就此断言绝后，但在相当长一段时间里，51金都是一座难以逾越的高峰。而在针对伦敦奥运会金牌分布情况进行预测的过程中，中国体育代表团毫无疑问被认为是最强有力的争夺者之一。此前5届奥运会上，东道主在接下来的一届大赛中，所获金牌数平均减少了32.8%。遵循这一规律，中国体育代表团在伦敦应斩获34金。

Beijing Olympic Games，Chinese sports delegation made unprecedented success，Not in this assertion time，But in quite long period of time，51 gold are both an insurmountable peak。In according to the London Olympic Games gold medal distribution in the process of forecast，Chinese sports delegation there is no doubt that is considered to be one of the most powerful contender。Previous five Olympic Games，The host in the next session of the competition，The average number of a 32.8% drop。Follow this rule，Chinese sports delegation in London should be gained ground and gold。

    分析认为，中国的特殊之处还在于，优势项目超级强大，即便没有了主场优势，乒乓球、跳水、羽毛球、举重等运动队依然可以确保较高的金牌总量。在这一基础之上，中国就已经比较有把握力压俄罗斯和东道主，确保金牌总数前两名。如果在其他项目上再有出色表现，中美之间或有一争。

    According to analysis，China's special place is that，Super strong advantage projects，Even though there is no home court advantage，Table tennis、diving、badminton、Such as weight lifting team still can ensure high gold medal total amount。In this foundation，China has comparative sure force pressure Russia and the host，Ensure that the total gold top two。If in other projects have outstanding performance，There is a dispute between China and the United States or。

　　所有的预测结果均指向这一点，区别在于，中国体育代表团到底能拿到多少枚金牌。美国有媒体认为，美国将获36金，中国以27金紧随其后。荷兰一家权威体育数据公司得出的结论则是，美国41金，中国37金。国内媒体普遍支持中国获得37金的结论，同时认为中国将险胜美国。伦敦奥组委主席塞巴斯蒂安·科也预测，三甲次序应是中、美、俄。中国体育工作者则始终保持低调，之前蔡振华曾重点强调了4个方面的困难：美俄实力不断提高，中国体育代表团新老交替，伦敦奥运会项目设置有了大幅度调整，客场作战不利因素增多。

All of the prediction results point to this，Difference between，Chinese sports delegation can get exactly how many gold MEDALS。The United States has media think，The United States will receive 36 gold，China followed by 27 gold。A Dutch authority sports data company is the conclusion，The United States and gold，China and gold。Domestic media generally support China won gold and the conclusion，At the same time that China will narrow the United States。London Olympic organizing committee chairman Sebastian department also forecast，Top of the order should be、beauty、Russia。Chinese sports workers are always keep a low profile，Before CAI zhenhua has highlighted four difficulties：Beauty and strength continuously improve，Chinese sports delegation succession of the new to the old，The London Olympic Games set there have been big adjustment，The road more unfavorable factors。

　　非优势冲击 Not advantage impact

　　北京奥运会上，中国体育代表团的金牌第一大户是体操队，其后依次为举重、跳水、射击和乒羽。这6支运动队所得金牌数分别为9、8、7、5、4、4，占了51金的七成还要多。到了伦敦，乒乓球和跳水依然是无可争议的梦之队，继续大包大揽，几乎没有悬念。羽毛球和举重困难略多一些，李永波相对保守地宣称，伦敦底线是两枚金牌，马文广则坦言，中国女举面临的威胁与挑战要大于前三届奥运会。

Beijing Olympic Games，China sports delegation gold medal, the first major consumer of gymnastics team is，Followed by lifting weights、diving、Shooting and PingYu。This 6 team respectively the number nine、8、7、5、4、4，Accounted for more than seventy percent of 51 gold。To London，Table tennis and diving is still the undisputed dream team，Continue to take on all things，Almost no suspense。Badminton and weight lifting slightly more difficult，That LiYongBo relative conservative，London bottom line is two gold MEDALS，MaWenGuang is said，Chinese women for the threat and challenge to be bigger than the first three games。

    至于射击和体操，前者冲金点多、变数也多，后者因为裁判打分等因素，能拿到北京奥运会一半的金牌已是极限。要想与美国一争高下，中国体育代表团必须尽可能地向37金这一“上限”靠拢。几个没有绝对优势的强项需要保持稳定，而在非优势项目上表现如何，则决定着中美竞争的最终排名。柔道、跆拳道、水上、击剑、射箭、拳击、蹦床等项目，夺金是必然的，夺金数量却难以判断。在美国最强势的田径、游泳这两个大项上，刘翔、孙杨、刘子歌等也都重任在肩，如果他们顺利夺金，就意味着美国队的金牌少了。此消彼长，交叉领域的争夺更为关键。（隋海涛）

    As for shooting and gymnastics，The former impact gold point many、Variable also more，The latter because of factors such as the referee score，Beijing Olympic Games can get half of the gold medal is limit。With the United States to caravans，Chinese sports delegation must as far as possible to 37 gold this“cap”close。A few no absolute advantage strengths need to keep stable，And in the advantage in the project performance，It determines the final ranking competition。judo、Tae kwon do、water、fencing、archery、boxing、Trampoline projects，Gold is inevitable，Gold quantity is difficult to judge。In the United States the strongest track and field、Swimming the two categories on，Liu xiang、SunYang、LiuZiGe also share of strife，If they smooth gold，Means that the gold medal less。eliminates，Cross the field for more key。（SuiHaiTao）