近日，温家宝总理在江苏调研时强调：目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期，调控任务还很艰巨，必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策，促进房价合理回归。

recently，Prime minister wen jiabao stressed in jiangsu research：Real estate market regulation is still in critical period，Regulation is very arduous task，Must unswervingly well control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy，Promote the rational regression house prices。

　　这声断喝，为近期骚动甚至少数城市有点燥热的楼市，泼了瓢凉水。不妨先分析市场背景。春节过后，全国一二线城市，尤其是东部城市，住宅成交量节节攀升，5月新建商品住宅成交量创近16个月新高，6月再创近17个月新高。而在往年，6月由于天气高热，一般成交量会低于5月，可见近期市场反弹力度不容小觑。如果仅是成交反弹，对政府、企业、购房者，皆可算作喜事。然而，市场规律是“量在价前”，成交量持续反弹后，价格也会止跌转涨。某民间机构数据表明，6月100个城市住宅成交均价连跌9个月后，首次环比上涨。

The sound DuanHe，For recent turmoil and even a few city a little hot property market，Splashing the gourd ladle cold water。Might as well the first analysis market background。After the Spring Festival，The national a second city，Especially in the eastern city of，Residential volume climbing，May the commodity residential house new volume and nearly 16 months high，June create almost 17 months high。And in previous years，June as the weather high fever，General volume will be lower than 5 months，Visible recent market rebound strength acceptance。If only clinch a deal is rebound，For the government、enterprise、homebuyers，All can count on board。however，Market law is“In price of before”，Volume after sustained rally，The price will turn up reason。A data show that civil institutions，June 100 city residential the price even fell nine months later，First annulus comparing rise。

　　房价反弹，绝非好事。这与2009年底以来的本轮房地产调控目标相悖。有必要回顾一下去年底以来的调控方针。其一，去年12月的中央经济工作会议提出：要坚持房地产调控政策不动摇，促进房价合理回归。其二，今年3月全国两会政府工作报告中强调：严格执行并逐步完善抑制投机、投资性需求的政策措施，进一步巩固调控成果，促进房价合理回归。其三，两会结束后的新闻发布会，温总理提出：合理的房价应该是使房价与居民的收入相适应，房价与成本和合理的利润相匹配，一些地方的房价还远远没有回到合理的价位。其四，5月温总理在武汉调研主持六省经济形势座谈会时表示：稳定房地产市场调控政策，严格实施差别化住房信贷、税收政策和限购政策。

House prices rebound，Is not good。This and 2009 since the end of this round of real estate control target personality。Necessary to review the policy since the end of regulation。one，Last December the central economic work conference we：To insist on real estate control policy not be moved，Promote the rational regression house prices。The second，In march this year the government work report to the two emphasis：Strict execution and gradually improve inhibit speculation、The investment demand policy measures，To further consolidate control results，Promote the rational regression house prices。thirdly，Two meetings after the end of the press conference，Prime minister wen proposed：The reasonable prices should is to make house prices and household income adaptation，House price and cost and reasonable profits match，In some places the house price is far from back to the reasonable price。Its 4，May wen in wuhan research six provinces and economic situation symposium hosted said：The real estate market stability control policy，Strictly implement differentiation housing credit、Tax policy and 限购 policy。

　　总体而言，近半年来，国家对于房地产调控从未放松。只是，在六省经济形势座谈会上，并没有提及“房价合理回归”。当时被很多专家解读为政策趋于平稳，不再打压房价了。

overall，Nearly half a year to，Country to real estate regulation never relax。just，In the six provinces of the economic situation in the forum，And no mention of the“House prices reasonable return”。Many experts were interpreted as a moderate policy，No longer down prices。

　　接下来，我们将此次温总理的发言归结为三点特征。首先，措辞严厉。“促进房价合理回归，我今天再一次强调这一点，这个目标，绝不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑的局面。”自3月两会以来，久未听到如此严厉的表述了。再次说明一点：即便是面临着经济“稳增长”压力，但房价问题，依然没有商量和后退的余地。正如温总理以前所言，至少在本届政府任内，不会姑息高房价。

The next，We will be the premier wen's speech comes down to three characteristics。first，The toughest language。“Promote the rational regression house prices，Today I again on this point，The goal，Never let a house prices rebound，Cause the lip situation。”Since march since the two sessions，Long does not hear the expression of so harshly。Again a little：Even if is facing the economy“Steady growth”pressure，But house prices problem，Still not back and discuss the room。Just as premier wen said before，At least in the government during his presidency，Not coddle that high prices。

　　其次，内容全面。之前应是准备充分，思虑周详，绝非在某些非相关场合的“随意提及”。主要分三个方面：第一，要把抑制房地产投机投资作为一项长期政策，继续严格实施差别化住房信贷、税收政策和住房限购措施，加强市场监管。第二，积极引导和支持房地产企业调整产品结构，增加普通商品房的供给，满足合理的、自住性的刚性需求。第三，继续稳步推进保障性安居工程建设，尽快形成有效供给。显而易见，第一条是重点，也是调控毫不动摇的具体体现；第二条，反映了今年以来保护刚需的方针应仅指代“首套普通商品住宅”；第三条，属于“规定动作”。

second，comprehensive。Should be ready before，Careful thought，Not in some of the relevant situations“Casual mention”。The main points three aspects：The first，To curb the speculative investment as a long-term policy，Continue to strictly implement differentiation housing credit、Tax policy and housing 限购 measures，To strengthen the market supervision。The second，Actively guide and support real estate enterprise adjustment of product structure，Increase the supply of common commodity house，Meet the reasonable、The rigidity of the living needs。The third，Continue to advance steadily supportability live project construction，As soon as a effective supply。obvious，The first is the key，Regulation is also the embodiment of unwavering；Article 2，Reflects this year since the policy to protect just should only refer to“The first set of common commodity residential house”；Article 3，Belong to“Prescribed moves”。

　　再次，部分措施具有新意。比如，“要把抑制房地产投机投资作为一项长期政策”，这是第一次明确提出要长期化。再如，“对涉及违规骗取购房资格的开发企业、中介机构和购房个人，要严肃查处。”这是首次明确提出要对这三类主体，进行查处。这也就意味着，要进一步收缩限购政策，尤其督促地方政府在具体操作中从严执行。

again，Part have new measures。For example，“To curb the speculative investment as a long-term policy”，This is the first time clearly put to long-term change。Be like again，“To defraud the irregular purchase qualified development enterprises、Intermediary organizations, and the individual，We will strictly investigate and prosecute。”This is the first time to put forward to the three kinds of main body，Investigate and deal。This also means，To further contraction 限购 policy，Especially urging local government in the concrete operation of strict execution。

　　基于上述分析，在以重申和强调限购、限贷、限价（督促地方政府控制年度房价目标）为主的政策背景下，下半年房价上涨趋势将被打断、缓解。

Based on the above analysis，To reiterate 限购 and emphasis in、Limit credit、price（Urging local government control of the annual house price target）Primarily of the policy background，The second half of the trend will be interrupted rising housing prices、ease。

早报特约评论员 杨红旭（作者系房地产业研究人士） Morning YangGongXu special commentators（The author is the real estate industry researchers）

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