每日经济新闻(博客,微博)记者 李玉敏 发自北京

Daily economic news(blog,Micro bo)Reporter LiYuMin from Beijing

　　7月16日，农业银行(601288,股吧)战略规划部发布的宏观经济周评表示，房地产投资每年对GDP增长贡献大约2～3个百分点，房地产投资继续下滑是经济在下半年面临的重要风险因素。为减缓经济受到的影响，政府须加大政策刺激力度，对冲负面影响。

July 16,，Agricultural bank(601288,Shares it)Strategic planning issued macroeconomic weeks review said，Real estate investment to GDP growth a year about 2 ~ 3% contribution，Real estate investment continued to decline in the second half of the economy is facing an important risk factor。For the slowing economy, the impact，The government must increase policy stimulus efforts，Hedge negative influence。

　　7月13日，国家统计局公布了上半年宏观数据，GDP同比增速从一季度的8.1%下降至7.6%，但环比增速从1.6%提高至1.8%。农行研究团队认为，这主要来自二季度以来政策宽松步伐加快，特别是5月23日国务院常务会议后，基础设施投资项目审批速度加快，很好地抵消了经济过快下滑的影响。

July 13,，The national bureau of statistics released macro data in the first half，Year-on-year growth in the first quarter GDP from 8.1% down to 7.6%，But annulus comparing growth rate increased to 1.6% from 1.8%。The agriculture bank research team said，This mainly comes from two quarter policy loose since pace，Especially on May 23, the standing committee of state council，Infrastructure investment project examination and approval speed，Very good to offset the impact of the economic downturn too fast。

　　然而，当前经济面临的挑战仍不容忽视，主要是房地产投资快速下滑，其增速从一季度23.5%下滑至二季度的13.1%。农行综合分析认为，下半年房地产市场仍面临较大挑战，为减缓经济受到的影响，政府仍须加大政策刺激力度，对冲负面影响。

however，The current economic challenges still nots allow to ignore，Main is real estate investment plunging，The growth in the first quarter fell to 23.5% from 13.1% in the second quarter。Agriculture bank that comprehensive analysis，The second half of the real estate market is still facing larger challenge，For the slowing economy, the impact，The government must still be strengthening policy stimulus efforts，Hedge negative influence。

　　通过对以往数据的详细分析，农行表示：“综合考虑房地产投资直接带动作用和关联影响，其每年大约综合考虑房地产投资直接带动作用对GDP增长贡献2～3个百分点。”

Through detailed analysis of the data of the past，Agriculture bank said：“Comprehensive consideration of the real estate investment directly leading role, and associated influence，Each year about the comprehensive consideration of the real estate investment directly leading role to GDP growth 2 ~ 3% contribution。”

　　该报告还表示，支撑我国房地产市场发展的因素仍存，当前较轻的人口年龄结构及1985年～1991年人口出生高峰逐渐进入婚育年龄，保证了住房需求，但短期内房地产市场去库存压力较大。在去库存结束前，难以看到企业增加房地产投资的行为，故下半年房地产投资增速继续回落的概率较大。

The report also said，In support of the development of real estate market factors are still in existence，The current lighter population age structure and 1985 ~ 1991 birth peak gradually into the baby age，Ensure the housing needs，But in the short term the real estate market to inventory pressure great。In the end to inventory，Hard to see enterprise increase of real estate investment behavior，So the real estate investment growth in the second half of the continuing decline of the larger probability。

　　为保证经济的合理增长，农行建议，应加快保障房投资建设力度，在限购政策不动摇的前提下，适当加大政策支持刚需的力度，加快房地产销售，减轻房地产去库存过程的负面冲击。另外，加大基础设施建设力度，防止经济过快下滑。

To ensure economic reasonable growth，Agriculture bank advice，Should speed up the security room investment construction force，In 限购 policy under the premise of not be moved，Appropriate policy support to increase the strength of the just，To speed up the real estate sales，Real estate to reduce inventory process negative impact。In addition，Increase the infrastructure construction force，To prevent the economy from too fast to slide。