解说：6月，全国70个大中城市房价数据出炉，北京、上海、广州一线城市新建商品房均环比上涨。

commentary：June，The national 70 large and medium-sized cities in house prices from the data，Beijing、Shanghai、A new line of guangzhou city commercial projects are rising。

　　卢群（本台记者）：一线城市当中，北京、上海和广州的新建商品住宅销售价格分别上涨了0.3%、0.2%和0.2%。

LuQun（Our radio reporter）：A line of city，Beijing、Shanghai and guangzhou new commodity house prices were up 0.3%、0.2% and 0.2%。

　　解说：房价会不会反弹？《央视财经评论》正在关注。

commentary：House prices will rebound？《CCTV financial comments》Is concerned about。

　　主持人（陈伟鸿）：欢迎各位收看《央视财经评论》，我们继续年中经济观察。房价的走势总是让人觉得捉摸不透。最近这段时间一些地方的房地产市场的成交量有所增大，个别楼盘甚至出现了久违的热销的场面。与此同时，对于房地产的调控政策，市场上也出现了一些猜测或者是议论。今天国家统计局公布了6月份70个大中城市的房价统计数据，一线城市北京、上海和广州的新建商品住宅销售价格出现了环比上涨的情况，那么这一情况，是不是意味着房价有反弹的迹象呢？如何来看待当前房地产市场的新动向？节目一开始，我们就来看一下国家统计局的最新数据。

The host（ChenWeiHong）：Welcome to《CCTV financial comments》，We continue to years economic observation。The trend of the house prices always let a person feel dark horse。The last time in some parts of the real estate market in the volume of sales is increased，Individual buildings appear even received the scene of sell like hot cakes。At the same time，The control policy for real estate，The market also appeared some speculation or discussion。Today, the national bureau of statistics released June 70 large and medium-sized cities in house prices statistical data，A line of Beijing、Shanghai and guangzhou new commodity house prices appeared annulus comparing to rise，So the situation，Mean that house prices rebound signs？How to look at the current real estate market of new trend？Program began，We will look at the latest data from the national bureau of statistics。

　　卢群（本台记者）：房价的走势最能牵动百姓的目光，今天国家统计局发布了6月份全国70个大中城市的房价统计数据，在这些数据当中，我们注意到虽然同比下降的城市数量继续有所增加，但是环比上涨的城市数量增加的也比较多。一线城市当中，北京、上海和广州的新建商品住宅销售价格分别上涨了0.3%、0.2%和0.2%。

LuQun（Our radio reporter）：The prices of most people can affect the trend of eyes，Today, the national bureau of statistics released in June 70 major cities across the country house price of statistical data，In the data center，We note that although the year-on-year drop the number of cities continue to increase，But the rise of the annulus increase of the city is more also。A line of city，Beijing、Shanghai and guangzhou new commodity house prices were up 0.3%、0.2% and 0.2%。

　　解说：在经历了一季度的楼市量价齐跌后，广州二季度楼市在成交上渐有起色，5月份突破9000套，同比大涨22.2%。6月份，成交8927套，同比大涨29%。楼市回暖态势之下，一些犹豫不定的刚需买家开始进一步“抄底”。

commentary：Experienced in the quarter's housing price volume together after the fall，Guangzhou property in the second quarter, clinch a deal was better，In may of 9000 breakthrough，Rose 22.2% year-on-year。June，Clinch a deal of 8927，Rose 29% year-on-year。Property market warms up under the situation，Some uncertainty has just need to buyers begin to further“Copy the”。

　　广州市民：最担心房价涨价要是再升高一点的话，就难以接受了，正准备出手。

Guangzhou citizens：Most worried about house prices prices if again rising a little words，It will be difficult to accept，Is preparing to make moves。

　　解说：而北京，6月份二手住宅签约13000余套，同比大涨71%，创下自去年限购政策实施以来的新高。随着7月10号北京万柳地块的高价成交，土地市场仿佛接过了住宅市场回暖的“接力棒”。

commentary：And the Beijing，June second-hand house signed more than 13000 sets，Rose 71% year-on-year，Since last 限购 policy set a record high since。As July 10 Beijing wanliu plot of high prices to conclude a deal，The land market as if accepted the residential market warms up“baton”。

　　从数量看，全国25个城市新房价格上涨，31个城市二手房价格上涨；国家统计局城市司高级统计师马晓明认为，6月份一些城市房价环比上涨的原因是多方面的，并且具有一定的特殊性。原因主要有三个方面：一是利率下调，购房成本下降，购房人的经济负担有所减轻，部分人的购房意愿增强；二是随着前期累积的刚性需求和改善性需求有所释放，特别是市场对房价走势的预期出现一些变化，担心房价反弹；三是部分楼盘在以价换量获得较好的销售业绩后，取消折扣优惠，甚至调高价格。

Look from the number，The new house prices in 25 cities，31 city housing prices；The national bureau of statistics city department senior statistician MaXiaoMing think，June some cities rising house prices annulus comparing many reasons，And has some particularity。There are three main reasons：One is the interest rate cuts，Purchase cost down，The person that buy a house to ease the financial burden，Part of people's purchase intend to increase；2 it is the accumulation of rigid with demand and improve sexual needs to release，Especially the market prices of the trend is expected to appear some changes，Worry about house prices rebound；3 it is part of the building to change in price is obtained good sales performance，Cancel the discount，Even raise prices。

　　近日《人民日报》也发文称，“刚刚过去的6月，一线城市房地产市场延续3月以来的回暖态势，成交量环比5月再创新高。楼市的全面回暖或许已是不争的事实”。

recently《People's Daily》Postings also said，“Just the past six months，A line of urban real estate market continue since march of buoyancy situation，Volume annulus comparing may hit a record high。The housing market may have warmed comprehensive is the fact that does not dispute”。

　　主持人：每个人面对着现在的楼市肯定都会发出同样的疑问，楼市是不是真的已经全面回暖了呢？为了让大家看清这样的一个现象，我们今天现场请到的两位评论员是我们财经频道的评论员马光远和刘戈，我们就来看一看，刚刚国家统计局发布的房地产市场的数据，从环比上来看，的确，在6月份，新建的商品房或者是二手房的价格，确实跟上个月相比有所增加，房价上涨这些城市从环比来看，6月份已经比5月份多了19个城市了，然后具体来看，在一线城市当中，北京、上海，还有广州这三个城市新建商品房的售价分别上涨了0.3%、0.2%和0.2%，虽然从这个比例上来看，不是特别的高，但是它是不是一种迹象，从这个迹象当中，我们是不是可以解读为楼市开始回暖了呢？

The host：Each person faces now in the housing market will certainly be issued the same question，Housing is not really has warmed the overall？In order to let everybody see such a phenomenon，Today we please of the scene to two commentators is our financial channel commentator MaGuangYuan and LiuGe，We'll take a look，Just published by the national bureau of statistics of the real estate market data，Will look from the annulus，indeed，In June，The new commodity house or is the price of housing，Compared with really increased last month，Prices rise from the city to see annulus，June has more than May 19 cities，And then the specific to see，In a line of city，Beijing、Shanghai，And guangzhou these three cities new commodity house price rising 0.3% respectively、0.2% and 0.2%，Although from this proportion to look，Not particularly high，But is it a sign，From the signs of，If we can be interpreted as the housing market began to return？

　　马光远（央视财经评论员）：数字真的不容乐观。

MaGuangYuan（CCTV financial commentators）：Digital really not optimistic。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：一线城市，那么从环比的涨幅来看的话，最高的环比涨幅新建的没有超过0.6%，二手房没有超过1.2%，那么涨幅看起来很低，但这个数字背后，我们看到上升的这种城市上涨的势头非常凶猛，那么我们考虑到，可以讲从3月份以来，整个楼市一线城市的成交量不断地在回升。

MaGuangYuan：A city，So from the annulus rise to see it，The highest annulus comparing the new increase more than 0.6%，Secondhand the room no more than 1.2%，So or looks very low，But the Numbers behind，We see the rise of the city rising momentum is very fierce，Then we consider，Can speak from since march，The whole housing market a line of the city on the up volume continuously。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：那么这几个也可以讲回升的势头非常明显。

MaGuangYuan：So this a few to also can speak picks up momentum is very apparent。

　　主持人：就手里持币待购的这部分群体现在又有点已经坐立不安了。

The host：Is the currency to buy in this part of the group now and a little has been on pins and needles。

　　马光远：已经不是待购，已经不是待购，已经是出现了明显的，就是从以前的观望到转变成一个坚决的行动。

MaGuangYuan：Have not to buy，Have not to buy，Is there is an obvious，From the previous looking to is transformed into a firm action。

　　主持人：已经直接冲出去，彻夜排队了，所以从这来看真的是这样的现象。

The host：Have direct rushed out，Lined up all night，So from this to see is really such a phenomenon。

　　马光远：我们从环比来看，可以讲，应该说房地产市场整个回暖的势头，还是比较明显的。

MaGuangYuan：We see from the annulus，Can speak，Should say the real estate market warms up in the whole momentum，Or more obvious。

　　主持人：我问问刘戈，刚才这些数据给你的印象是什么？它是不是意味着我们一线城市的这个房价有反弹的一个迹象？

The host：I ask LiuGe，Just this data to your impression??? What??？It not means we selected cities of the house prices rebound a sign？

　　刘戈（央视财经评论员）：对，我还注意到一些民间机构，比如说中国指数研究院，它的另外一个数字，就是它是统计了一百个城市，一百个城市平均的单位面积的涨幅是0.05，这个数字也很小0.05，但是它是9个月来第一次……

LiuGe（CCTV financial commentators）：to，I also noticed that some folk organization，For example China index academy，It's another number，Is it is a survey of one hundred cities，The average of the one hundred cities of unit area rise is 0.05，The Numbers are also small 0.05，But it is nine months to first...

　　马光远：出现上涨。

MaGuangYuan：rose。

　　刘戈：出现上涨。

LiuGe：rose。

　　主持人：这是一个值得关注的消息。

The host：This is a notable news。

　　刘戈：这是值得关注的，就是9月份来的第一次上涨，另外还有一个，就是6月份，就是土地拍卖的溢价比例是10%，那么前5个月都是5%左右。

LiuGe：This is the concern，In September, is the first to rise，In addition to a，Is June，The premium is the land auction ratio is 10%，So the first five months of all is around 5%。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　刘戈：也就是说，底价上升的幅度很有限，但是6月份的话，一下上升了这么多，所以从这样一些无论是官方的，还是民间的数字来看，就是总体上来说6月是标志性的一个月，就是在这月里面，无论是成交量单价的这个环比，还有土地的拍卖全部上升。

LiuGe：That is，The range of the floor price rise is very limited，But if in June，Once up so much，So from that some whether official，Or the number of folk to see，Is the overall June is the iconic a month，It is in the months，Whether the annulus comparing the volume unit price，And the land auction all rise。

　　所以在这样的一个判断情况下就是和5月份的判断又发生了一个非常大的不同。

So in such a judgment situation is in May and the judge struck a very big difference。

　　主持人：回暖的迹象还是比较明显的。

The host：Warms up in the more obvious signs or。

　　刘戈：对。

LiuGe：to。

　　马光远：而且我们看到新的地王又出现了。

MaGuangYuan：And we see the new king appeared again。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：当然地段很特殊。

MaGuangYuan：Of course area is very special。

　　主持人：是。

The host：is。

　　马光远：同时我们看到，很多开发商在3月份以前，很多楼盘都会有优惠的，那么现在很多的优惠。

MaGuangYuan：And we see，Many developers in 3 months ago，Many buildings will have favorable，So now a lot of discount。

　　主持人：取消了。

The host：Cancel the。

　　马光远：也没有了，而且价格，有很多二手房的价格出现了明显的上涨，那么北京上半年开盘的楼盘里面，30%到40%价格是选择上涨。

MaGuangYuan：Also have no，And the price，Have a lot of secondhand the room price has noticeably rise，So in the first half of the opening of the Beijing building it，30% to 40% price rise is a choice。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：那么剩下的基本上是持平。

MaGuangYuan：Then the other is basically unchanged。

　　主持人：我想刚才两位描述的这一现象，对于每一个普通百姓来说，可能都是感同身受的，所以我觉得在他们发来的这些观点当中，可能也能看到他们对于房地产市场发展的这些担忧或者是期待，我们来看看他们的观点，这位署名叫做“黄玉米”的网友说：调控是个过程，经济走势也是，这一段是不是关键点并不好判断。北上广仍然有所上涨，这也是弹性的。

The host：I want to just two description of this phenomenon，For every for ordinary people，May be with empathy，So I think in the view of these from them，May also can see them for the real estate market development of these concerns or is looking forward to it，We come to see their point of view，The signature is called“Yellow corn”Of netizens said：Regulation is a process，Economy trends is also，This is a key point is not good judgment。North wide still had increased，This also is flexible。

　　另外一位网友，他的名字叫“1985”，他说：就目前的形势，房价调控在未来三年内都是一个很关键的节点，房价的调控要长期坚持。“半年报”显示，房价同比上涨了5.3%。而随着房地产调控的持续，在未来的二三年内，房价应该是持续走低的，然后在平稳的水平徘徊，那时才可以说调控是成功的。

In addition a net friend，His name is“1985”，He said：In the present situation，House price regulation in the next three years is a very key nodes，The regulation of house prices to insist for a long time。“Half annals”shows，House prices were up 5.3% on a year-over-year basis。But along with the real estate regulation persists，In the next two or three years，House prices should be falling，And then in the smooth level around，Then can say regulation is successful。

　　这个观点可能代表了很多网友对于调控的一个心愿，但是现在我们常常碰到一起的时候，对于房地产又开始有新的关注，大家问的问题就是，“你觉得房价还会不会涨”？这个问题我们也联合了数字一百调查公司，做了一个相关的调查，两位可以一块来看看我们的结果，有46%的受访民众选择的是未来的房价还是要上涨的，只有31%的人说不好说，看不太明白，24%的人选择的是跌。

This view may represent the many net friend for regulation of a wish，But now we often meet together，For real estate and started a new concern，Everyone ask problem is，“You think prices will rise”？The problem we cooperate with digital one hundred survey company，Do a related investigation，The two can be a piece we look at the results，46% of those surveyed chose the future house prices will rise or，Only 31% of people say it's impossible to say，Don't understand，24% of the people the choice is to drop。

　　那么其实我们接下来还需要跟大家来分享另外一组数据，这个数据也是此前统计局发布的，在数据当中表明，上半年全国商品房的代售面积达到了31408万平米，增长了33.1%。

So in fact we need everyone to next to share another group data，The data is also previously statistics bureau，In data of shows，The national commodity house in the first half of an area of 31408 square meters，Growth of 33.1%。

　　其实我觉得，通过刚才网友的这个心态，因为这个楼市可能面临有回暖，我们心态都会有一些微妙的改变，这个改变有的时候是难以言传的，这是一个层面的判断。

In fact I think，Through the net friend just this mentality，Because the housing market may face a thaw，We will have some attitude subtle change，This change sometimes is difficult to talk，This is a plane's judgment。

　　另外一个层面的判断，我们看到房地产市场的一些指标，你比如说库存，等等，这些指标都还是比较低迷的，那我们想问问两位，究竟对于我们普通百姓来说，现在出手买房到底合适不合适？

Another level of judgment，We see some of the real estate market index，You such as inventory，, etc，These indicators are still low，That we want to ask two，What ordinary people speaking to us，Now buy a house right out what is not right？

　　刘戈：这个问题是大家最关心的问题。

LiuGe：The problem is you the most concern。

　　主持人：没错。

The host：That's right。

　　刘戈：每个人在表述的时候，可能都不会去再下一个决断，因为它影响的因素太多，现在刚才我们从无论是房地产的，比如说这个刚才我们看到的那些数据，那是大家的一个预估。

LiuGe：Everyone in the statement，May not go to the next decisions，Because it affected factor is too much，Now we have just from both real estate，For example the data that we saw just now，It is everyone's a prediction。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　刘戈：而且在这里面，我们看到第二个数据，就是库存量很大，而且我们在看上市公司现在已经进行一些预报的这样一些中报的预报，那么大概有40几家上市公司，房地产上市公司，总体的大概其中有13家报了要亏损，预亏。

LiuGe：And on the inside，We see the second data，Inventory is very large，And we see in the listed company has now for some of the forecast that some of the forecast reported，Then about 40 a few companies，Real estate listed companies，Overall probably there are 13 house called the to losses，The kui。

　　所以从这些房地产公司的信息，我们得到的信息是什么呢？就是由于他们有存量，然后还预亏，所以它会降价。

So from the real estate company information，We get information is what？It was due to they have stock，And then also the kui，So it will reduce the price。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　刘戈：从这个角度来讲，你可能做出这样一个判断，但是要从另外的角度来讲，现在这么多的信息，又给大家另外一种信号，就说会不会由于新的，就说因为整体经济有下滑的趋势。

LiuGe：From this Angle，You may make such a decision，But on the other's point of view，Now that so many of the information，And to give you another signal，He said will not because the new，He said because the overall economic decline。

　　所以由于新的政策，刺激政策可能出台，最后导致房价又是报复性的反弹，所以这两种观点是交织在一起的，最后就是决定于我们的政策走向到底是什么样的。

So since the new policy，Stimulus policy may come，Finally lead to house prices is vindictive rebound，So the two ideas are intertwined，The last is decided in our policy toward exactly is what kind of。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　刘戈：因为现在的话，预期而不是说成本也好，或者其他因素变成了最主要的因素，我们举一个例子，就是在去年日本地震的时候，我们的盐，全中国的盐会在一夜，一天之内的话卖光，那么中国缺盐吗，不缺，但是为什么会产生这样的一个结果呢，就是因为大家都产生了一个预期……

LiuGe：Because now words，Expected but not cost of it，Or other factors into the main factors，We give an example，In Japan the earthquake is last year，Our salt，All the Chinese salt can in the night，One day sell out words，Then the Chinese short of salt，Don't lack，But why can produce such a result，It is because everyone produced a expected...

　　马光远：恐慌。

MaGuangYuan：panic。

　　刘戈：对，可能如果我现在不买，明天我就买不到盐了，所以我不管需要不需要，我都要买。

LiuGe：to，If I may not buy now，Tomorrow I will buy less than salt，So I don't need no matter needs，I have to buy。

　　马光远：所以……

MaGuangYuan：So......

　　主持人：就整个把你都卷进去了。

The host：The whole put you roll in。

　　刘戈：对。

LiuGe：to。

　　主持人：所以我觉得你在判断房地产发展方向的时候，可能除了刚才刘戈说的，政策的走向是什么样的，你需要考量，另外现在的经济的大背景和大环境也同样需要放到你的考量的纬度当中去，可能很多人都记得，在不久之前，温家宝总理去调研的时候也特别强调说，现在我们的经济还没有出现这个稳定回升的一个态势，也就是说，未来经济的困难期可能还要维持相当长一段时间。那如果放在这样的背景当中，我们来判断到底该不该出手买房？

The host：So I think you judge the direction of the development of real estate in time，In addition to the LiuGe said just now may be，The policy to be what kind of，You need to consider，In addition to the background of the current economic environment and also need to put in your consideration of latitude，Many people may remember，Not long ago，Prime minister wen jiabao to research when also special emphasis on said，Now our economy is not appear the stability of a trend rise，That is，Future economic lull in business may also maintain a fairly long time。That if this background in midst，We to determine what this shouldn't make moves to buy a house？

　　马光远：事实上按照一个正常的逻辑我们来判断的话，如果总体宏观经济下滑的话……

MaGuangYuan：In fact according to a normal logic to judge our words，If overall macro economic downturn that......

　　主持人：不是那么乐观的话。

The host：Not so optimistic words。

　　马光远：就是一艘大船，我们说，一艘大船在慢慢往下走的时候，那么坐这船上的所有人都不会很好受。

MaGuangYuan：Is a big ship，We said，A great ship was slowly go down，So all the people sit on board the ship is not well。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：大家都是恐慌的，但是现在我们看到一个非常奇怪的现象，就是每一次当宏观经济，当经济增长出现问题的时候，只有一个行业是欢呼雀跃的，就是房地产。

MaGuangYuan：Everyone is the panic，But now we see a very strange phenomenon，Is every time the macro economy，When the economic growth of the problems，Only one industry is jubilant，Is real estate。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：房地产本身的走势成了宏观经济的一个反向指标，为什么宏观经济下滑，房地产却感觉到是利好？最关键的是一旦宏观经济往下走的时候，大家把稳定增长的主要希望寄托在房地产上。

MaGuangYuan：The movements of the real estate itself became a macroeconomic a reverse index，Why macro economic downturn，But feel real estate is positive？The key is once macroeconomic go down，Everybody to stable increase of the main hope in real estate。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：也就是说，在这种情况下，出于稳定经济增长的需要，那么房地产是要放松的，这是现在我们在考虑整个房地产的时候，不管你承认与不承认，都成了一个基本的逻辑。

MaGuangYuan：That is，In this case，The need for stabilizing economic growth，So the real estate is to relax，This is we are now in the real estate consider，Whether you admit and denied it，All became a basic logic。

　　所以一方面我们看到宏观经济在往下走，股市在往下走，车市在往下走，只有房地产出现了逆势上涨。

So on the one hand, we see the macro economy in go down，The stock market in go down，Market in go down，Only real estate appeared contrarian rise。

　　刘戈：对，像跷跷板一样。

LiuGe：to，Like a seesaw as。

　　马光远：同时我们还看到什么，比如说利率在下调，货币在放松，各地政府都在微调房地产政策，不断冲击房地产调控的底线限购政策。

MaGuangYuan：At the same time we also see??????，For example in the cut interest rates，Currency in the relaxation，Governments around the world are fine-tuning real estate policies，The impact of the real estate continuously regulation bottom line 限购 policy。

　　主持人：不管它是出台了几天之后，就被叫停的。

The host：Whether it is introduced a few days later，It was called the。

　　马光远：所以我感觉什么呢，现在出现了一种情况，一方面我们的高层不断在强调，坚持房地产调控不动摇，而且说了可以讲说了最高级别的对房地产调控的狠话，就是决不允许房价出现反弹。

MaGuangYuan：So I feel，Now there is a situation，On one hand, we emphasize the top continuously，Insist on real estate regulation not be moved，And said can speak the highest-level on real estate regulation of malicious words，Is never allow house prices rebounded。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：这个话已经说得非常到位了，但是那么一方面我们看到政策是不断地可能推动房价往下走，那么另一方面我们又在强调调控不动摇，给我感觉像什么呢，比如说，你对着一群猫，流浪猫你说，拿出一盘很香的鱼告诉它们说，这个鱼不准你们吃。

MaGuangYuan：The words are very in place，But then on the one hand, we see policy is constantly may be driving prices go down，Then on the other hand, we emphasize the regulation and not be moved，I feel like what，For example，You to a group of cats，Stray cat you said，Take out a plate of delicious fish told they said，The fish are not allowed to eat you。

　　主持人：千万别动。

The host：Don don't move。

　　马光远：这样的话，对猫来说是非常大的一个考验。所以我觉得在目前情况下，出手买房也好，不出手买房也好，对所有的人都是一种焦虑，这种焦虑关键在什么地方，就是整个房价上涨的预期并没有被扭转，我们现在看到同比的数据仍然在下降，80%的城市在下降，但是整个上涨的预期在增强。

MaGuangYuan：so，It is very big to the cat a test。So I think in the present circumstances，Moves to buy a house or，Do not move or buy a house，To all of the people is a kind of anxiety，This anxiety key in what place，Is the whole house prices rising expectations and not be reversed，And now we see up data continues to fall，80% of the city in decline，But the rise in the expected increase。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：这种预期本身又跟整个宏观经济形成了一个反向的指标，所以在这种情况下，我想我们在很多情况下，我们是很难左右市场的。

MaGuangYuan：The expected itself with the macro economy and formed a reverse index，So in this case，I think we in many cases，We are difficult to about the market。

　　主持人：对。但是对于这个市场的预期，的确是非常牵动人心，现在的房地产可以说真正又进入了这个深度的博弈阶段，那么在这样的一个新的环境，新的背景之下，楼市未来会呈现什么样的一个走势呢？欢迎各位继续锁定我们的《央视财经评论》。

The host：to。But for this market expectations，It's really very affect the heart，Now the real estate can say really into the depth and the game stages，So in a new environment，New background，Property market will be in the future: what kind of present a trend？Welcome all of you continue to lock us《CCTV financial comments》。

　　解说：部分地方楼市成交回暖，楼市的预期牵动人心，市场博弈双方谁能胜算？新的形势下，楼市走势如何？《央视财经评论》正在关注。

commentary：Part of the local property market clinch a deal the thaw，The housing market expectations affect the heart，Market players who can win？Under the new situation，Property market trends how to？《CCTV financial comments》Is concerned about。

　　主持人：好，欢迎回到现场，继续在我们今天的节目当中来关注房地产市场的发展，最近这段时间，可能各位也频频能够看到不少地方楼市回暖的消息报道，同时也有不少的地方政府，放松了对于房地产市场的调控，出现了一系列当地的政策，那我们来看一看相关的这些新闻。

The host：good，Welcome back to the，Continue to in our today's program of the development of the real estate market to attention，The last time，May you can see many places also frequently market warms up in the news report，There are also a lot of local governments，The real estate market to relax the regulation，Appeared in a series of local policy，That we see these related news。

　　李元电（记者）：这里是位于龙华拓展区一个新开的楼盘，同时也是央行最近一次降息之后，深圳第一个开放营销中心的楼盘，虽然这个楼盘还没有正式开卖，但是短短三四天的时间就吸引了超过两千多位市民前来登记咨询，这个数量已经超过了楼盘推盘数量的三倍以上。而且从我手上拿的这份客户登记表上可以清晰地看到，自住需求的市民占到了9成以上。

LiYuan electricity（reporter）：Here is located in longhua development area a new open estate，The central bank is also a recent after cut interest rates，Shenzhen first open marketing center building，Although this property has not officially open to sell，But just 3 or 4-day time attracted more than more than two thousand citizens to registration information，That number has more than building dish dish number of push three times or more。And from my hand the customers on the registration form can be seen clearly，The citizens of demand from live up to 9 into above。

　　解说：而销售人员告诉记者，刚性需求的大量入市，和央行最近的两次降息关系密切。

commentary：And sales staff told reporters，A large number of rigid demand market，And the central bank of the recent two cuts close relationship。

　　市民1：一降息大家有钱存在银行用处不太大了，能多买一套房就多买一套了。

Citizens 1：A money in the bank to cut interest rates all use not too big，Can buy a suite much buy a。

　　市民2：应该对房地产的整体销售是有帮助的，短期的刺激肯定是有的。

Citizens 2：Should the whole of real estate sales is of help，Short-term stimulus affirmation is some。

　　解说：上半年，深圳新房成交18000套，同比上涨8.4%。从6月份开始，全国多数一二线城市新房成交量创下了一年来的新高。原本被视为传统淡季的7月楼市，也出现了淡季不淡的现象。

commentary：In the first half，Shenzhen bridal chamber to clinch a deal of 18000，Rose 8.4% year-on-year。Begins in June，The national most a second city new home sales a year highs。Originally is regarded as the traditional slack July in the sector，Also appeared off-season not light phenomenon。

　　近日，位于冉家坝片区的龙湖原著售楼中心，小户型优惠广告牌非常抢眼，特惠四万到八万的优惠活动更是吸引了众多购房者。

recently，Ran dam area is located in the home of the original center of dragon lake，Small family preferential billboard very grab an eye，A special forty thousand to eighty thousand discount activity is attracted many homeowners。

　　销售人员：优惠之后均价9000多，我们这栋正好赶上一个感恩季，龙湖的各个楼盘都在做活动，所以正好赶上我们这次开盘，多了一个点的优惠，优惠之后价格是差不多，而且我们这栋楼位置比之前那栋好。

Sales personnel：After more than 9000 average price discount，We were just in time to catch a grateful for this season，The lake in each building activities，So we were just in time for the opening，Many a point of preferential，Preferential price is after almost，And our building the house position than before。

　　记者：优惠幅度有多大？

reporter：The discount rate is？

　　销售人员：优惠幅度四万到八万吧。

Sales personnel：The discount rate forty thousand to eighty thousand now。

　　记者：不是说交一万抵几万吗？

reporter：Not to say that hand over ten thousand against tens of？

　　销售人员：现在是交四千抵两万。

Sales personnel：Now is over twenty thousand in four thousand。

　　解说：除了龙湖原著，重庆不少售楼处近段时间的看房人气同样火热。

commentary：In addition to the original dragon lake，Chongqing many sales offices close period of time things were also popular。

　　巴南区的世纪金源御府销售中心营销经理：7月6号之后，来访量还是大了很多，而且销售量也有20%的一个提升。

The BaNaOu of century jin yuan imperial house sales center marketing manager：On 6 July after，Visit a much greater volume or，Sales and 20% of a boost。

　　解说：那么，随着信贷政策的放松，房价会不会出现2009年那样的大幅反弹？专家认为，最近购房者的心态确实发生了一些变化，之前被压抑的一些需求得到释放。

commentary：so，As credit policy of relaxation，House prices will not appear in 2009 that rebound sharply？Experts say，The mentality of the recent home buyers really happened some changes，Some of the repressed before the release of the demand。

　　面对量价齐升的房地产市场，上周温家宝总理在江苏视察时又再次强调，目前房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期，必须坚定不移做好调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策。

Facing the JiSheng quantity and price of real estate market，Prime minister wen jiabao visited last week in jiangsu and again，Real estate market regulation is still in critical period，Must unswervingly well control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy。

　　主持人：量价齐升的表现，真的让人担心房价会不会回到2009年那样一个井喷式的状态，所以其实很多的购房者是带着一种对未来预期的恐慌，加入到了彻夜排队的行列当中去的，但是我们不妨来看一看国家在今年以来的经济数据的一个表现，今年上半年呢，我们的GDP的同比增速是7.8%，二季度是7.6%，三年来的首次破8。

The host：JiSheng quantity and price of the performance，Really make people worry that prices would not back in 2009 that a state of a blowout type，So actually of a lot of the person that buy a house is to take a future expected to panic，Joined the ranks of the line up of all night，But we might as well see countries in economic data have this year of a performance，In the first half of this year?，Our GDP growth of 7.8% year-on-year，In the second quarter was 7.6%，For the first time in three years the 8。

　　所以总理在不同的场合都反复强调我们要稳增长，包括刚才在短片中看到，在江苏调研的时候，还是强调要坚决地做好房地产的调控。

So the prime minister in different occasions have repeatedly said that we want steady growth，Including just in case to see，In jiangsu research，It emphasizes that determined to do real estate control。

　　但是我觉得如果是在稳增长这样一个前提和愿望之下，房地产的调控会不会变成一件特别难的事，还真的能够坚持下去吗？如果想要坚持，应该怎么做？

But I think if is steady growth in such a prerequisite and under the desire，The regulation of real estate will become a particularly difficult，It can keep going？If want to stick to，Should do？

　　马光远：房地产能不能稳增长，我想这个答案百分百没有任何疑问，肯定能稳定增长。

MaGuangYuan：Real estate can steady growth，I think the answer without any doubt，Sure can stable growth。

　　主持人：是。

The host：is。

　　马光远：而且能够对我们的整个稳增长起到非常重要的作用。

MaGuangYuan：And to our whole stability to growth play a very important role。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：但关键是，我们需要什么样的稳增长，我们需要什么样的增长，这可能是这么多年以来，我们一直需要去解决、去考虑、去下决心走出这么一个周期性的循环的一个很重大的一个问题。

MaGuangYuan：But the key is，We need to what kind of firm growth，We need to what kind of growth，This may be so for many years，We always need to solve、To consider、To determined to out of such a periodic cycle of a very significant problems。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：我想对于房地产来讲，我们可以这么讲，我们假定，因为现在我们的高层释放出的信号非常明确，就是决不放松。

MaGuangYuan：I think for real estate speaking，We can say，We assume that，Because now we high-level release signal is very clear，Is never relax。

　　主持人：对。

The host：to。

　　马光远：决不让房价反弹，这个信号非常明白，但是我们假定一旦我们放松会怎么样，我想放松以后，钢铁行业、水泥行业这些产能过剩的行业，肯定一下子获得了创新资金，这个毫无疑问的。

MaGuangYuan：Never let house prices rebound，This signal is very clear，But we assume that once we relax，I want to relax after，Steel industry、Cement industry these excess capacity of the industry，A certainly won the innovation fund，This no doubt about that。

　　主持人：欢呼雀跃了。

The host：Hailed the。

　　马光远：那么房地产肯定迎来一个，2009年、2010年那样的井喷，房价会再次上涨。但是我想2013年我们怎么办？上涨以后怎么办？2014年我们怎么办？那么再比如说，除了房地产与房地产相关的一些行业以外，中小企业的困难问题，房地产能不能解决。

MaGuangYuan：So the real estate must have a，2009 years、Blowout did in 2010，House prices will rise again。But I think in 2013, what do we do？After rising？2014 what do we do？Then for example，In addition to real estate and real estate related outside some industries，Small and medium-sized enterprise problem，Real estate can solve。

　　我们的产业低端问题，温家宝总理最近在各地考察的时候，强调我们经济困难两个原因的时候，谈到两个原因，第一个是我们的产业比较低端，利润空间非常低，那么一遇到困难的时候，抵抗力比较差。

Our industry the low end of the problem，Prime minister wen jiabao recently in the investigation of all time，Emphasis on our economic difficulties for two reasons，Talk about two reasons，The first is our industry is low，The profit space is very low，So a face of a difficult time，Resistance more bad。

　　第二个特别强调产能过剩，我们现在所谈到产能过剩，除了与房地产有关的行业以外，剩下与房地产无关的行业，比如说我们造船业，全球现在产能过剩20%，那么中国产能过剩也很厉害，这些问题不可能通过房地产来解决，必须通过调整产业结构，必须提高我们在全球产业链中的利润地位来解决。

The second special emphasis on excess capacity，We are now talking about excess capacity，In addition to real estate and relevant trade outside，The real estate industry has nothing to do with the left，For example we shipbuilding，Global now excess capacity by 20%，So China excess capacity is also very much，These problems are not possible through the real estate to solve，Must pass to adjust the industrial structure，Must we improve our global industrial chain in the profit position to solve。

　　我们谈到稳增长的时候，一定要有长期目标，我们不仅仅为了下半年，不仅仅为了2012年，我们还有2013年，2014年，2015年，我们整个“十二五”期间的整体规划，整体的主题最重要的就是转型。

We talked about the growth of the firm，Must have long-term goals，We not only for the second half，Not just for 2012 years，We have 2013 years，2014 years，2015 years，Our whole“1025”During the whole plan，The overall theme of the most important is the transformation。

　　所以我觉得，我们不要因为遇到一时的困难，经济一时的下滑，温家宝总理我觉得说得非常好，就是我们的稳增长通过调结构、惠民生，把它们结合起来，那么不能说，我们完全再依靠房地产，依靠房地产本身的负面效应是非常大的。

So I think，We don't because of a difficult meet，The downturn in the economy at that time，Prime minister wen jiabao said I feel very well，Is our firm growth through the structure、Huimin born，Put them together，So can't say，We completely to rely on real estate，The negative effect on real estate itself is very big。

　　刘戈：我们就拿钢铁来举例，房地产最后带动的钢铁业就是最低端的那部分。

LiuGe：We take the example of steel，The steel industry is the last real estate drive the lowest that part。

　　主持人：简单重复的是最容易……

The host：The simple repetition is the most easy......

　　刘戈：这个是任何一个小钢铁厂都可以生产的，而可能我们钢铁业需要的什么，需要的是高精度的这样一些钢板，那么这样呢，就是拉动起来的永远是最低端的。

LiuGe：This is a small plant any can production，And we may need steel the??????，Need is of high precision of such a few steel plates，So it，Pull up is forever is the lowest。

　　所以你就能够看到在这样的一些行业里面，它对于整个经济的转型，也必须通过我们的经济能够承受一定的压力以后，这样的一些钢铁厂的转型才能够实现。

So you can see in this some industry inside，It for the whole economy transformation，We must also pass the economy can withstand the pressure after，This kind of steel to realize the transformation。

　　马光远：所以我觉得这一次，真的房地产真的到了调控最艰巨、最关键的时刻。

MaGuangYuan：So I think this time，Really real estate was really control the most difficult、The heat of the moment。

　　主持人：在这个夏季，我想房地产毫无疑问是最热的一个关键词，房价到底会不会反弹，如何才能够坚持房地产的调控不动摇？我们也来听一听特约评论员的看法。

The host：In the summer，I think the real estate is without a doubt one of the hottest keywords，What will not bounce house prices，How to adhere to the real estate regulation not be moved？We have to listen to the special commentators view。

　　顾云昌（中国房地产研究会副会长）：影响房地产市场整个的条件是两个，一个是房地产调控政策，一个是宏观经济层面的政策，尤其是货币政策，信贷政策的变化，那么把稳增长放在更加重要位置以后，信贷政策放松了，利率连续两次下降，流动性也加大了，这样情形下必然会导致房地产市场的回暖和房价的回升。

GuYunChang（China real estate, vice President of research）：The conditions of the real estate market the whole effect is two，One is the real estate control policies，One is the policy of the macroeconomic level，Especially monetary policy，Credit policy changes，So BaWen growth in a more important position in the future，Credit policy relaxed，Interest rates on two consecutive decline，Liquidity can increase，This situation will lead to real estate market of buoyancy and house prices to bounce back。

　　所以如果这时候我们放松房地产市场调控，有可能造成房地产价格的反弹。

So if this time we relax the real estate market regulation，Can cause real estate prices rebound。

　　所以这是一个非常关键的时期，既要保证稳增长，又要控制房价，那么两者之间如何地结合是一个非常关键，也是到了一个非常转折的时期。

So this is a very important time，Both to ensure that stability growth，And to control prices，So how is between with a very key，Also is to a very turning period。

　　主持人：很多人都看到了，这两个问题之间，必须要做一个结合，一个是稳增长，一个是调控房价，但是如何做到最完美的结合，恐怕是考验我们各级政府智慧的一个最关键的考题了。

The host：A lot of people see it，Between the two problems，Must do a combined，One is the steady growth，One is the control of house prices，But how to do it the perfect combination，I'm afraid is the test of the wisdom of the government at all levels we a the most critical examination questions。

　　在今天我们节目制作过程当中，我在我们栏目的微博上也看到一位海南的市民李小言特别表达了这样一个观点，他说：这个房地产的调控是不能中断的，那样的话，房价就会反弹，我们购房自住的市民是很难承受的。他希望说，大家都能够做好房地产调控的一个长期的准备。

Today we program production in the process，I in our column on micro bo also saw a hainan citizens LiXiaoYan special express a view，He said：The real estate is the control can be interrupted，That way，House prices will rebound，We purchase from the citizens of living is hard to bear。He wants to say，Everyone can do real estate regulation of a long preparation。

　　话是这么说，但是做到的该怎么做，我们想听听两位还有什么样的建议？

Words are so said，But do this to do，We'd like to hear the two and what kind of advice？

　　刘戈：我觉得在这里面地方政府是不是能够站稳脚跟，他起着非常重要的原因，那么上半年，全国的土地拍卖的收益比去年同期下降了27%，那么这个数字还是非常大的。所以有一些城市的，它的财政会吃紧，那么在这样的情况下，地方政府会对中央的一个政策的执行的坚决的力度。所以也是变成房地产市场的一个变量之一，所以这一点能不能坚持住非常重要。

LiuGe：I feel on the inside the local government will be able to gain a firm foothold，He plays a very important reason，So in the first half，The national land auction yields a 27% lower than the same period last year，So the number is still very large。So some of the city，It will be a tight fiscal，So in that case，Local government for the central a policy of the strength of the execution of the firm。Therefore, it is of the real estate market into one of a variable，So it can hold on very important。

　　马光远：那么我们说房地产调控它是一个长期的工作，我想既然是长期的工作，就应该有长期的举措，有稳定性的制度性的举措，这次温家宝总理谈到房地产调控的时候，又说了他去年说的一句话，就说要抓住这个时机，推出一系列的制度举措，我记得在今年年初的时候，住建部曾经讲要在上半年……

MaGuangYuan：So we say that real estate control it is a long term work，I think now that is work for a long time，You should have a long-term measures，The stability of the system is action，The prime minister wen jiabao talked about real estate regulation，And he said his last year said a word，He said to seize the opportunity，The system of the roll out a series of measures，I remember that at the beginning of this year，Live JianBu ever speak to in the first half of the year...