7月6日中国央行与欧洲央行同一天降息。住宅市场回暖，投入商业地产的资金会撤离吗？商业地产的好日子到头了吗？在昨日播出的《新财富夜谈》节目中，财经评论员叶檀和安徽金大地商业有限公司总经理王辉、复旦大学房地产研究中心所长蔡为民(博客,微博)、中国商业地产联盟副会长王永平就此话题进行了探讨。

On 6 July, China's central bank and the European central bank cut interest rates on the same day。Residential market warms up，Investment of commercial real estate funds will be evacuated？Commercial real estate day round？In the broadcast yesterday《New wealth implausible》program，Financial commentators leaves wingceltis and anhui gold business, general manager of the earth WangHui、Fudan university of real estate research center CaiWeiMin(blog,Micro bo)、China's commercial real estate league wang yongping, vice President of this topic is discussed。

　　叶檀：央行降息步伐之快，出人意料，说明经济情况差于预期。而降息通道带动楼市这两个月明显反弹。从6月份开始，住宅价格出现回暖，土地拍卖价格水涨船高。万般无奈之下，房地产尤其是住宅地产消费又被推举到前台充当要角，房地产市场预期已经扭转，降息是火上浇油。虽然房地产贷款下行空间被央行锁定，不享受优惠，但中国房地产市场从低谷反弹的预期已经形成。

Leaves wingceltis：The central bank cut interest rates of the fast pace，unexpectedly，The economy badly than expected。And driving the market rate cut channel two months obvious rebound。Begins in June，Housing prices appear thaw，The land auction prices rise。All but under，Real estate especially housing estate consumption and was held up to the front desk act as to Angle，The real estate market expectations have reversed，Rate cuts is added fuel to the fire。Although real estate loans downside space by the central bank lock，Do not enjoy preferential，But China's real estate market from the bottom of the expected rebound has been formed。

　　前阵被楼市调控逼向墙角的开发商们纷纷投向了商业地产的怀抱，那么在楼市调控之下，商业地产是逆势崛起 ，资金大量地涌入。根据一份调查显示，仅仅在今年的第一季度商业地产的投资开发增速是达到了43%以上，可以说商业地产是相当的火。今年一季度住宅开发投资增速仅为19%，而商业地产则达到了43.4%，资金还在大量进入商业地产市场，商业地产的确火了。

Former array into the corner of the property market regulation by the developers have to the commercial real estate's arms，So in the property market under control，Commercial real estate is a contrarian rise ，A lot of money into。According to a survey，Only in this year's first quarter of commercial real estate development investment growth is achieved 43% above，Can say commercial real estate is a fire。In the first quarter of this year the housing development investment growth rate is only 19%，The commercial real estate reached 43.4%，Funding is also in entered the commercial real estate market，Commercial real estate indeed fire。

　　从飞涨的写字楼租金中就可见一斑，今年一季度，北京写字楼租金同比上涨48%，顶级写字楼国贸三期租金直逼香港顶级写字楼，最高达到1200元/月/平方米。今年北京CBD顶级写字楼的租金比2011年同期上涨了75%，排名已超过纽约，跃居全球第五位。

The soaring office rentals from the as evidenced by，In the first quarter of this year，Beijing office rentals rose 48% year-on-year，The top three periods of international trade office rent matches the Hong Kong top office，A maximum of 1200 yuan/month/square metre。This year's top office building of Beijing CBD rent than the same period in 2011, up 75%，Ranking has more than New York，Global fifth place。

　　不仅一线城市商业地产火爆，这股热潮也在三四线城市发酵。石家庄市房协的数据显示，2009年石家庄商业地产成交量只有6.7万平方米。到了2011年，商业地产成交量为32万平方米。仅仅两年时间，石家庄商业地产成交量增加了近五倍，预计2012年将突破40万平方米。

Not only a city commercial real estate boom，The mania has three or four city fermentation。Shijiazhuang city room (data shows，In 2009, the volume of shijiazhuang commercial real estate only 67000 square meters。By 2011，Commercial real estate volume for 320000 square meters。Only two years，Shijiazhuang commercial real estate volume increased nearly five times，Expect 2012 will break 400000 square meters。

　　蔡为民：商业地产风险很大，现在的状况如雨后春笋，未来的状况是岌岌可危。商业地产的发展，首先需要有人去消费，如果没有人去消费，没有办法经营，它就不再是一个资产。事实上商地会比住宅还要惨，将变成负债。

CaiWeiMin：Commercial real estate the risk is very big，The situation have mushroomed，The status of the future is at stake。Commercial real estate development，First need someone to consumption，If no one to consume，No way to business，It is no longer a assets。In fact business than even miserably to housing，Will become liabilities。

　　王永平：商业地产之所以火爆，其中一个原因在于很大一部分地产商是被动地卷入到里边来。很多地方政府在出让地块的时候，往往把商业是搭着住宅在卖，商业用地被住宅地产所绑架了。如果说住宅是一块瘦肉的话，商业就是一块肥肉，地方政府觉得要搭着一起卖才会好。

Wang yongping：Commercial real estate is hot，One reason is that a big part of property developers are passively involved in the inside。Many local governments in the plot，The business is often a residence in to sell，The land for commercial use is housing estate have been kidnapped by......。If the house is a lean lean words，Business is a piece of fat，The local government to feel a together to sell will be good。

　　我国商地的经营是住宅依赖型的发展模式，与国外的商业地产的模式完全不一样。国外的商业地产是专业的，另外有专门的基金来支持它，成本也没有这么高，而我们没有这种专门的商业地产信托基金，没有保险资金没有养老资金来支持这些产品。那么我们只能就是一个项目来自求平衡，那开发商就往往只能去拿一块住宅用地，然后把住宅卖掉，这个钱来养这个商业。当住宅形势不好的时候，这个商业就很难养了。

Our country business to business is residential dependence model of development，And the overseas commercial real estate model was completely different。Foreign commercial real estate is professional，Have other special fund to support it，Cost also does not have such high，And we don't have this kind of special commercial property trust fund，No insurance funds are not endowment funds to support these products。So we can only is a project from for balance，The developers will often can only get a piece of housing land，And then sell the house，The money to keep the business。When the housing situation is not good，This business is hard to keep。

　　房企纷纷抢滩商业地产，在这片繁荣的背后风险和泡沫在暗流涌动。一方面是商业地产供应过剩，另外一方面是住宅回暖，在双重危机之下，房产商还能撑多久呢？

Room in commercial real estate enterprises subordinate，In this piece of the prosperity of the risks and foam behind in the undercurrent。On the one hand is the commercial real estate supply excess，On the other hand is residential thaw，In the dual crisis under，Developers can also support how long？

　　蔡为民：商业地产十家有九家会面临严重的问题，或者是半死不活。调研数据显示，亚洲最发达的国家日本的人均商业面积，东京是1.48平方米、大阪1.59平方米、京都1.74平方米；我国的人均商业面积，北京2.56平方米、银川3.32平方米、宁波4.28平方米、厦门4.3平方米。日本已经发展了这么二三十年了，他才也就是一点多平方米，而却已经远超过他们了，怎么可能呢？

CaiWeiMin：Commercial real estate ten home has nine will be faced with a serious problem，Or is more dead than alive。Research data shows，Asia's most developed country Japan's per capita commercial area，Tokyo is 1.48 square meters、Osaka 1.59 square meters、Kyoto 1.74 square meters；China's per capita commercial area，Beijing 2.56 square meters、Yinchuan 3.32 square meters、Ningbo 4.28 square meters、Xiamen 4.3 square meters。Japan has developed so two hundred and thirty years，He was also is a little square meters，But he has far more than they，How do they do that？

　　王永平：预期在未来的这个四五年间，很多项目就会遇到比较大的困难。对那些大型的商业来讲，压力就会比较大，招租如果达不到一定比例，你就开不了业，这个压力财务成本就很大。如果项目不好，即便招满了也可能要付出很大的代价。商铺进场付租金是天经地义的，现在也不付了，还有更过分的，叫倒包租。一般来讲我们到百货公司里面开店，商场会跟品牌商说，你一个月卖不到30万，我就让你走人； 现在呢？品牌商说如果一个月卖不到30万，你得给我免租。在这种情形下，房产商是很难过的。

Wang yongping：Is expected in the next four or five years of this，Many projects will meet more difficult。For those large commercial terms，Pressure will be relatively large，For if not reach the certain proportion，You can not open the industry，This pressure financial cost is very big。If the project is bad，Even if filled also may have to pay a big price。Shops comes into play to pay the rent is part of the natural order of things，Now also don't pay，And the more too，Call down rental。Generally speaking we to the department store inside a shop，Stores will follow brands said，You sell a month is less than 300000，I will let you go； now？Brands said if sell a month is less than 300000，You have to give me MianZu。In this case，Property developers is very sad。

　　继住宅地产商业地产之后，现在神州大地又掀起了新一轮旅游文化地产的圈地运动，声势也是非常的浩大。那么这究竟是房企一次成功的转型，还是又一次资产泡沫运动呢？

The residential property after the commercial real estate，Now throughout the and about in a new round of tourist culture property of enclosure movement，Momentum is also very great。So this does is room enterprises a successful transformation，Still another asset bubble motion？

　　叶檀：说到旅游地产我就心惊肉跳，旅游地产的代表海南，曾是中国唯一的泡沫大规模崩溃的地方。

Leaves wingceltis：Say to the tourism real estate I the creeps，The representative of the hainan tourism real estate，Has China's only bubble collapse of the large-scale place。

　　2010年以来，大批开发商再度纷纷涌入海南岛，大规模烧钱开发旅游地产。在海南岛1528公里长的海岸带上，一个“旅游房地产群”已悄然出现，万科、富力、恒大、鲁能等知名地产企业先后开发建设旅游房地产项目。这样的情形，很容易令人联想到上一轮地产泡沫破裂前海南楼市的疯狂。

Since 2010，A large number of developers again poured into the hainan island，Mass burn money tourism development of real estate。In hainan island 1528 kilometers long on the coastal，a“Tourism real estate group of”Already appear sadly，vanke、FuLi、evergrande、Shandong luneng, and other famous real estate enterprise develops successively construction tourism real estate projects。The case，Very easy to associated with a real estate bubble burst of hainan property market before the madness。

　　王辉：旅游地产这两年热门的原因就是强调第二居所的概念。以往的旅游以观光旅游为多，现在会务旅游、度假旅游，各种各样的旅游形态在发生变化。在海南省的很多海滨别墅和公寓酒店，实际上是一般的房地产功能。现在很多人是以旅游的名义在圈住宅用地，最后本质都是要靠这个住宅、 别墅这些概念去盈利的。

WangHui：Tourism real estate these two years popular reason is emphasized the concept of the second place。Previous tour for sightseeing，Now business travel、Holiday travel，All kinds of tourism form in change。In hainan province is a lot of beach house and apartment hotel，In fact is the general real estate function。Now many people is the name of tourism in circle housing land，Finally essence is to rely on the property、 These concepts to earnings of the villa。

　　目前有很多景区在搞上市，搞融资，事实上旅游地产的盈利能力比商业地产的盈利能力还要低，投资回报很差，时间周期还要长。什么人在盖酒店？就是说我们旁边有很大一堆住宅，有很多的利润了，这个钱我不愿意去交税，然后我沉淀到一个酒店里边，这样我可以少交一些税，可以去折旧。然后我拿这个酒店将来可以做银行抵押，做评估的时候会高一点，我到上市公司里边这估值还没当作利润。它本身是不赚钱的，就是融资平台。

There are a lot of scenic spots in the make public，Make financing，In fact the profitability of tourism real estate than commercial real estate the profitability of the still lower，Return on investment is very poor，The cycles of time and long。What person in cover hotel？That means we have a big pile of house next to，There are a lot of profit，The money I don't want to go to pay tax，And then I precipitation to a hotel inside，So that I can make some less tax，Can go to depreciation。Then I take this hotel can do bank mortgage in the future，Do stock will a little higher，I to the listed company valuations have not as inside the profits。It is itself do not make money，Is financing platform。

　　搞旅游地产，去掉门票收入，实现不了收益，很多人都是拿旅游的名义做配套住宅。开发商一千亩两千亩地拿地，背后一定有很大的住宅配套，这样整个住宅成本就得以下降了。 （陈靓 整理）

Make tourism real estate，Take out tickets income，Not achieve the benefits，A lot of people that it was the name of tourism do supporting residential。Developers one thousand mu two thousand mu to take，There must be a lot of house behind a complete set，So the whole house cost will be dropped。 （Chen beautiful arrangement）