日前，挪威财政部长公开要求该国银行业减少对负债率偏高家庭的房地产贷款。据挪威央行估计，自从2008年以来，挪威房地产价格已经飙升了30%，而该国家庭负债已经接近年度可支配收入的2倍。

a，Norway finance minister called openly for the country's banking to reduce leverage on the high side of the family real estate loans。Norwegian central bank estimate，Since 2008，Norway real estate prices have surged 30%，While the country's household debt has been close to the annual disposable income of 2 times。

　　作为欧洲第二大石油和天然气出口国，挪威的经济表现在正遭遇欧债危机的欧洲可谓“鹤立鸡群”，经济增速靠前，失业率最后。在多数国家央行在考虑降低利率以刺激经济增长时，挪威央行却早在2011年年底时就讨论提高利率的问题。当时，挪威的基准利率为1.5%。最终，挪威央行为了降低挪威克朗升值的压力，不得不两次降低利率，以保护其出口行业。

As the second largest European oil and natural gas exporter，Norway's economic performance is suffering the debt crisis in Europe is“standout”，Economic growth in front，Unemployment rate last。In most countries the central bank in considering lowering interest rates to boost economic growth，The Norwegian central bank but as early as in 2011 at the end of the year to discuss the problem of increasing interest rates。At that time，Norway's benchmark interest rate is 1.5%。finally，The Norwegian central bank in order to reduce the pressure on the appreciation of the krone，Had to twice cut interest rates，In order to protect the export industry。

　　2011年，挪威有关金融监管机构就开始要求银行减少房地产贷款，对于贷款规模超过地产市值85%以上的则禁止放贷。但此举并没有“冷却”日益高涨的房价。挪威房地产经纪人协会估计，今年6月挪威房地产价格涨幅以年度计算达到7.7%，再创历史新高。今年5月，挪威统计局公布的数据则显示，家庭信贷增幅以年度计算增加了7.1%。

2011 years，Norway relevant financial regulators began to require Banks to reduce real estate loans，For the size of the loan more than real estate market value more than 85% of the loans is prohibited。But it didn't“cooling”A rising house prices。Norway real estate agent association estimates，In June this year Norway real estate price rise to 7.7% annual calculation，Hit a record high。In may this year，Norway bureau of data is displayed，The family in the credit growth is increased by 7.1%。

　　1980年代末期，就在挪威房地产泡沫破灭之前，挪威家庭负债曾超过年可支配收入的1.5倍。当时，房地产价格在接下来几年下挫了40%。

1980 s，In Norway estate bubble before，Norway household debt in disposable income was over 1.5 times。At that time，Real estate prices falling 40% in the next few years。

　　最近，经济合作与发展组织警告挪威政府，鉴于家庭负债率太高，挪威房地产业将面临巨大风险。曾经准确预言美国次贷危机爆发的标准普尔－希尔房地产价格指数合作创立人希尔，今年1月就警告挪威政府，应高度关注房地产市场的泡沫化倾向。美联储则在6月一份报告中，将挪威列为面临房地产泡沫压力的典型国家。

recent，Organization of economic cooperation and development warned the government of Norway，In view of the family leverage is too high，Norway real estate industry faces huge risk。Once predict exactly the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis standard &poor's-hill real estate price index collaboration people hill，This January warned the government of Norway，Attention should be turning into a bubble-and the real estate market tendency。The fed is in June in a report，Will face a real estate bubble Norway as the pressure typical countries。

　　挪威发生的房地产泡沫，对欧洲来说，是相当的“不陌生”。因为主权债务和银行危机而向外界请求救助的国家，如西班牙、希腊、爱尔兰等，其房地产业在危机爆发前夜曾呈现出“欣欣向荣”的景象。

Norway happen housing bubble，To Europe for，Is pretty“No stranger to”。Sovereign debt and bank crisis because to the outside of the country for assistance，Such as Spain、Greece、Ireland, and，The real estate industry in the crisis was eve show“thriving”scene。

　　全球金融危机爆发前的十年间，西班牙房价年均增长10%，有的年份甚至增长超过30%，地价也在十年间飙升5倍。西班牙银行业把房地产贷款视作优质信贷。金融危机暴发后，西班牙靠房地产拉动的经济大幅下滑，失业率达到24%，很多年青“房奴”无力支付贷款。大量房贷发生违约，引发西班牙银行业系统性危机，不得不申请1000亿欧元救助。银行业出现危机，又连带市场对西班牙国债的担忧加剧，今年6月以来，其国债收益率多次突破7%的警戒线，差点就要把西班牙拉入申请救助的行列。

Before the outbreak of the global financial crisis of 10 years，Spain house prices the average annual growth of 10%，Some years even growth of more than 30%，Land price in ten years also soaring 5 times。The Spanish banking real estate loans as high quality credit。The financial crisis after the outbreak，Spain pulled by real estate a sharp slowdown in the economy，Unemployment reached 24%，Many young“Mortgage slave”Unable to pay the loan。In the event of mortgages，Cause the Spanish banking systemic crisis，Have to apply for a 100 billion euro rescue。Banking crisis，And joint for Spain the concerns of the Treasury market intensified，Since June of this year，The Treasury yield 7% celebrating the tipping point，Almost is to apply for relief of Spain, into the ranks。

　　2000-2007年，希腊经济增长形势良好，年均增速4%，利率保持低位，加上移民数量不断增长，推动房地产价格持续上扬，八年间年均增幅达9.1%。2007年当年房地产贷款就增长21%。特别是2004年希腊的“奥运经济”，使大量民间资金和大量欧盟资金流向房地产，房价猛升。但随着全球金融危机到来，希腊房地产的好日子到了尽头。就业人口减少和外来人口重新流出，导致房地产市场供过于求。仅2008年一年，希腊房价就下跌12%，并出现严重滞销。希腊政府长期以来预算都高度依赖房地产，在有关房地产行业的收入锐减后，为了维持高福利和高工资，财政赤字逐年上升，公共债务占GDP的比重也在几年内从100%左右攀升至160%以上。随之而来的就是主权债务危机。

2000-2007，The Greek economy growth situation is good，At an annual average rate of 4%，Interest rates stay low，With increasing the number of migrants，Promote rising real estate prices，Eight years with an average annual growth of 9.1%。In 2007, when the real estate loans will increase 21%。Especially in Greece in 2004“Olympic economy”，Make a large private funds and a large European Union money flows to the real estate，House prices rise fierce。But with global financial crisis coming，Greece has come to an end of day for real estate。Employment population decline and floating population to flow out，In real estate market demand。In 2008 alone，The Greek house prices will fall by 12%，And there is serious。The Greek government has long budget are highly dependent on real estate，In the real estate industry revenues plunged，In order to maintain gao fuli and high salary，Fiscal deficit increased year after year，Public debt to GDP in the percentage of a few years from 100% of up to 160%。Following is sovereign debt crisis。

　　爱尔兰在全球金融危机之前，年均经济增速5%-11%。1995-2007年，爱尔兰房价平均上涨了3到4倍，房价相对家庭年收入的系数也从4上升到10。1996-2006十年间，爱尔兰房地产业在国内生产总值中的比重翻了一番，从5%提高到10%。十年的经济繁荣也催生了巨大的房地产泡沫，随着全球金融危机的到来，高度放贷给房地产市场的银行纷纷遭受巨亏。2008年爱尔兰政府不得不对银行进行全面担保，将银行业的债务放到了纳税人肩上。2010年，爱尔兰当年的财政赤字就达到GDP的32%，无疑又进一步将其推向了主权债务危机的深渊。

Ireland in the global financial crisis before，Annual economic growth of 5% 11%。1995-2007，Ireland house prices have risen by an average of 3 to 4 times，House prices relative families with an income from the coefficient is up to 10 April。1996-20060，Irish real estate industry in the proportion of GDP has doubled，Increased from 5% to 10%。Ten years of economic prosperity also gave birth to the great real estate bubble，With the global financial crisis，Height of the real estate market bank loans to have suffered huge losses。In 2008, the Irish government had to fully guarantee bank，Will the banking on the taxpayer debt shoulder。2010 years，The Irish deficit of that year to 32% of GDP，It also will further to the sovereign debt crisis of the abyss。

　　幸福的家庭都是相似的，不幸的家庭各有各的不幸。用来形容危机时，似乎可以是“繁荣的经济都是不同的，不幸的危机也都有共同之处”。

Happy families are all alike，Each unhappy family is unhappy in its own。Used to describe crisis，Can seem to is“Economic prosperity is different，Unfortunately crisis also have in common”。

　　共同点之一：为了维持经济高速增长，政府对房地产泡沫“视而不见”。例如，日本政府就是因为担心日元升值对产业产生影响，而有意放松货币政策，将利率降至接近零，放纵流动性泛滥而诱发房地产泡沫；美国则在进入21世纪时为克服IT泡沫破灭给经济带来的影响，而放松银根和金融业监管；爱尔兰则是经历了出口大幅增长和经济繁荣后，在出口竞争力削弱时，为保持经济增速而将发展房地产作为新的经济增长点。总的来看，在地产泡沫形成时期，政府似乎更愿意“乐见其成”。

One thing in common：In order to maintain rapid economic growth，The government on real estate bubble“Turn a blind eye”。For example，The Japanese government is worried about the yen appreciation for influence of industry，And to loose monetary policy，Interest rates fell to close to zero，But a flood and induce a real estate bubble liquidity；The United States is in the 21 st century to overcome IT when the bubble burst to economic impacts，And easing financial industry regulatory and；Ireland is experienced a sharp increase exports and economic prosperity，In the export competitiveness weakening，To keep economic growth and development will be real estate for a new economic growth point。In general，In the real estate foam formation period，The government seems more willing to“Love it”。

　　共同点之二：金融系统对房地产泡沫的“推波助澜”。在房地产泡沫膨胀过程中，银行都扮演了重要角色。大银行绕过各种制度限制将大量资金投入房地产，将涨了若干倍的房地产视为可靠的“硬担保”，甚至按房地产预期升值的价值提供贷款，留下巨大风险敞口。爱尔兰房地产贷款的首付最低仅5%，美国也出现过“零首付”。

Second in common：The financial system of the real estate bubble“hoax”。In the real estate bubble in the process of inflation，Banks are playing an important role。Big Banks sidestep the system will be a lot of money into property restrictions，Several times the rising real estate as reliable“Hard guarantee”，Even the value of appreciation by real estate expected providing loans，Open left huge risks。Irish real estate loans down minimum only 5%，The United States also appear“Nothing down”。

　　共同点之三：地产泡沫－银行危机－货币危机或主权债务危机存在恶性循环。在房地产出现大泡沫的国家，一旦某种危机引发持续上涨的房地产市场下调，产生的大量房贷坏账就会把银行拖入深渊。政府就不得不出手“拯救”银行，导致公共债务攀升，主权债务也因此引发。西班牙就是此种恶性循环的典型。如果房地产泡沫中外资的贡献较大，则泡沫破灭时，大量外资外逃就会引发货币危机，泰国、马来西亚、香港发生的危机就属此类。

In common-：Real estate bubbles-bank crisis-currency crisis or sovereign debt crisis exists vicious circle。In a real estate bubble of any big country，Once a crisis, which increases in real estate market decline，A large number of mortgages have bad loans will take the bank into the abyss。The government will have to make moves“save”bank，Public debt to climb，Sovereign debt and therefore cause。Spain is that the typical of the vicious circle。If real estate bubble overseas significant contribution，When the bubble burst，A large amount of foreign capital flight would cause currency crisis，Thailand、Malaysia、Hong Kong happened of the crisis。

　　结论，任何房地产泡沫形成初期都是具有诱惑力的，任何靠房地产泡沫获得的经济增长都是不可持续的，任何房地产泡沫破灭造成的破坏都是灾难性的。

conclusion，Any real estate bubble in the early formation is attractive，Any real estate bubble have on economic growth is unsustainable，Any real estate bubble burst damage is disastrous。

　　当下中国房地产市场调控正处于十字路口，唯愿决策者能以历史之教训、他国之危机为借鉴。

Contemporary Chinese real estate market regulation is at a crossroads，Only let decision makers to the teaching of the history、Other countries for reference of the crisis。

　　（作者为北京大学中国战略研究中心研究员）

（The author for Beijing university Chinese center for strategic studies researchers）