2012年以来全国典型城市市场走势可以分为两个阶段，1-2月为低迷期，3月以后交易量明显回升；从具体城市来看，一二线城市市场总体好于去年，而近两年以来一直表现突出的三线城市市场增长速度却有所放缓；从房价角度看，当前开发企业进一步调价的空间和动力都在缩小，我们预计下半年典型城市房价将陆续起稳。

In 2012 the country since the typical cities market movements can be divided into two phases，1-2 month is the downturn，3 months later rebounded somewhat trading volume；From the concrete city to see，A second city market overall better than last year，And in the past two years has been the outstanding three city market growth slowed in the pace；From the perspective of house prices，The current development enterprise of space and dynamic pricing further in narrow，We expect that the second half of the city will be built up typical house prices stable。

整体市场——1-2月楼市仍处冰点，3月以后政策面趋缓推动市场强势回升 The overall market-1-2 month property market still at freezing point，3 months policy to promote strong market rebounded to slow down

　　2012年以来房地产市场经历了一个先抑后扬的过程。以我们监测的九大重点城市（北京、上海、广州、深圳、天津、武汉、重庆、南京、杭州）为例，今年以来的市场交易量走势大致可以分两个阶段：第一阶段是1-2月份，此时在政策调控和传统淡季的双重影响下重点城市交易量处于绝对低位，单看绝对量甚至不如2011年同期；第二阶段则是3月份之后，市场交易量出现明显冲高增长，其中九大重点城市3月份的交易量已经创下2011年1月（限购政策正式升级）以来的单月最高值，4月份经过短暂缓冲之后，5、6月份连续创出新高，6月份九大重点城市单月交易量已经高达887万方。

Since the year 2012, the real estate market has experienced a first after the process of antimicrobial lift。We monitor to nine key city（Beijing、Shanghai、guangzhou、shenzhen、tianjin、wuhan、chongqing、nanjing、hangzhou）For example，This year the market trend since trading volume can be roughly divided into two phases：The first stage is 1 to 2 months，At this point in the policy control and traditional slack under the dual effects of key cities in absolute low trading volume，Single look even worse than absolute value is the same period in 2011；The second stage is a 3 months，There is a clear market volume at high growth，Nine major city in March has reached the volume in the January 1, 2011（限购 policy official upgrade）The biggest since the peak，In April after a short after buffer，5、Continuous record new historical highs in June，June 9 big key city monthly performance volume has up to 8.87 million party。

　　对于三月以来楼市呈现明显回暖趋势，在我们看来主要原因在于政策面的变化。

For since march present obvious property market warms up trend，In our opinion the main reason is the change of the policy。

　　3月份两会之前，楼市调控力度依旧从紧，温家宝总理三令五申地强调“坚持房地产调控不动摇，促进房价合理回归”，使得任何一点带有松绑调控之意的政策一一被叫停，典型的例子就是芜湖的购房补贴政策和上海的居住证满3年可购二套房。

Before two meetings in March，Market control power still tight，Prime minister wen jiabao SanLingWuShen to emphasize“Insist on real estate regulation not be moved，Promote the rational regression house prices”，Make any individual with the meaning of one of the control policy have been stopped，A typical example is the purchase subsidy policy and wuhu Shanghai residence permit full 3 years can purchase two suites。

　　3月份之后，地方政府或明或暗的放松调控再度兴起，无论是调整普通住房标准还是放宽公积金贷款，只要不触及限购红线基本都能得到监管层的默许。其中扬州的购房奖励政策得到住建部的确认具有明显的信号意义，其虽未触及限购红线且奖励幅度也相对较小，但它却为地方政府对限购进行微调细化无疑是开了一扇窗。

After the march，Local government or bright or dark relax regulation rise again，Whether adjustment common housing accumulation fund loan standards or relax，As long as 限购 doesn't touch the red line basic can get regulatory tacit approval。The reward of yangzhou purchase policies to be living JianBu confirmation has obvious signal significance，Though not touch the 限购 red line and reward range is relatively small，But it was for local governments to fine-tune 限购 refinement is undoubtedly open a window。

　　而4月份之后，在经济增速明显回落且连续下降的背景下，中央层面更是进一步要求把“稳增长放在更加重要的位置”，之后诸多地方都试图出台或传闻出台救市政策，其中涉及到放松公积金、放松首套房贷、放松户籍，个别城市更是直接打起了限购红线的主意，而值得关注的是，中央对于这些地方“闯关”举动一改去年严厉打压的态度，转而采取明显缓和甚至默认的应对，事实上这已经意味着调控基本面出现了潜移默化的好转。尤其是6、7月连续两次降息更是对市场预期产生了重要的影响，在整个行业政策环境趋缓的背景下，前期观望的需求倒逼入市的现象开始集中出现，推动市场交易量持续上行。

And after the April，Economic growth in apparent and the background of continuous decline，The central level but also the further requirements“Steady growth in a more important position”，Many places on after trying to come help city policy or speculation，One related to relax accumulation fund、Relax the first set of mortgages、Relax census register，Individual cities but also call directly up the idea of 限购 red line，And there is concern，The central to these places“Stage mode”A tough act to make the last year attitude，Turning to clear the default to ease even，In fact this has means that regulation fundamentals appear subjected to the better。Especially 6、July continuous two cuts is to market expectations has had a significant impact，In the whole industry policy environment under the background of slowing，Watching the demand DaoBi listed on the phenomenon began to appear，Promote the market for trading volume goes up。

九大典型城市11-12年商品住宅交易量月度走势（单位：万平方米） Nine typical cities 11-12 years trading volume of commodity residential house monthly trends（unit：Square meters）