本报讯（记者 涂露芳）二季度中国GDP增速7.6%的数据发布后，很多业界人士担心全年经济增长目标能否实现。摩根大通日前发布最新预测报告称，中国今年全年经济增速应该会在7.7%，而全球经济增速预计在2.4%。这份报告分析，中国当前低通胀、就业稳定的状况与2008年、2009年的危机相比要好得多，因此无需大规模经济刺激。

Report from our correspondent（Reporter TuLouFang）In the second quarter of China's GDP growth of 7.6% after the data were released，Many industry officials worry the growth target year can be realized。Jpmorgan chase to released the latest forecast report says，China's economic growth throughout the year should be in 7.7%，While the global economic growth is expected to be 2.4%。The report analysis，China's current low inflation、Employment stability and 2008 years、2009 years of crisis much better than，So, no large-scale economic stimulus。

　　楼市调控和钢铁、水泥等产能过剩行业的调整，是直接导致本轮经济下滑的主要内部因素。摩根大通测算，整个楼市对中国经济下拉大概是一个百分点。去年中国经济增长是9.2%，今年是7.7%，1.5个百分点的下滑，这中间有1%是房地产下降的结果。

Property market regulation and steel、Cement in industries with excess capacity of adjustment，This round of economic downturn is led directly to the main internal factors。Jpmorgan chase estimates，The property market to China's economy down about one percent。Last year China's economic growth is 9.2%，This year is 7.7%，1.5% of the downturn，Among the 1% of the decline of the real estate is the result。

　　这份报告还提出，目前中国经济最大的问题是企业利润率持续下降，而且下降幅度越来越大，严重影响企业投资意愿，造成内需疲软。这也是上半年银行贷款相对放松，但刺激经济效果一直较弱的原因。

The report also puts forward，China's current economic the biggest problem is the enterprise profit margins continue to decline，And a steeper decline is more and more big，The serious influence enterprise investment intentions，Caused by a weak domestic demand。This is also a bank loan relatively relaxed in the first half，But economic stimulus effect has been the cause of the weak。

　　摩根大通首席中国经济学家朱海斌建议，政府应该加大减税力度。短期看，减税可以直接改善企业利润率，提高私人投资，从而达到稳定经济增长的目的。从中长期角度看，通过减税降低公共投资的比例，有利于中国经济结构深度调整。

Jpmorgan chase chief China economist ZhuHaiBin Suggestions，The government should intensify efforts to tax cuts。Short-term see，Tax cuts can be directly improve enterprise profit margins，Higher private investment，So as to achieve the purpose of stable economic growth。From the long-term perspective，Through the tax cuts reduce public investment proportion，For China's economic structure adjustment depth。

　　对于国内楼市走向，摩根大通判断，下半年基本上处于继续调整、慢慢见底回复的阶段，但房价大幅反弹的可能性不大。

For the domestic market trends，Jpmorgan chase judgment，The second half was basically in the continue to adjust、Slowly see bottom reply of stage，But house prices are likely to rebound sharply。

　　针对住房租金快速攀升的势头，朱海斌回应，大部分中国城市租金回报率非常低，多在2%甚至2%以下。租金的调整周期通常滞后于房价的周期，因此近年来租金上调是对过去一段时间内租金回报率很低的纠正过程。

The rent for the rapidly momentum，ZhuHaiBin response，Most Chinese cities return on the rent is very low，In the more than 2% or even 2%。The rent adjustment period usually lags behind the cycle of house prices，So in recent years to raise the rent is in the past is very low rent rate of return of the correct process。

　　但租金每年上涨10%的过程很难延续。朱海斌认为，楼市上一轮增长，有很多是作为投资性或者投机性购买入市，住房空置普遍，造成社会资源的一大浪费。与国际大城市水平比较，房租跟房价比大概是3%至4%左右比较正常，但中国的现实问题在于，北京、上海等大城市，房价相对于居民的收入高太多。因此，租金水平并不能刻意跟房价挂钩，可能更多应跟居民收入挂钩。

But the rent every year 10% rise in process is hard to continue。ZhuHaiBin think，The last round property market growth，Many are as an investment or speculative buying market，Housing vacancy common，Cause the social resources of a waste。And international level is big cities，The rent is about 3% than with house prices to around 4% more normal，But the real problem lies in China，Beijing、Shanghai and other big cities，House prices relative to the income of the residents high too much。so，The rent levels and can't deliberately link with house prices，May be more income should be linked with。