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房地产依赖遭遇“调控不放松” 楼市陷多重博弈--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-07-29
中新网7月17日电(房产频道 胡可璐)日前,一则关于“珠海楼市取消限购令限价令”的消息在网络上广泛流传。虽然珠海相关部门已进行否认,但地方政府如此频繁地刺探调控底线仍引起人们普遍担忧。从地方几次按耐不住的“微调”动作来看,其过度依赖房地产的土地财政已显现“后遗症”。业内人士指出,房地产市场已经出现反转,市场和行政力量的博弈不断加剧,如果不加抑制,房价恐将再次引起恶性暴涨。对于地方政府来说,只有转变土地财政的传统观念,才是长久摆脱经济困境的出路。
Beijing, July 17 (Reuters)(Real estate HuKeLu channel)a,A newspaper story about“Zhuhai property market to cancel 限购 limit orders”News circulated widely on the Internet。Although zhuhai related departments have denied,But local governments so often spying on the control bottom line is still the cause widespread concerns about people。From local mood.according several times“fine-tuning”Action to see,The excessive dependence on the land already showed real estate finance“sequela”。Industry insiders point,The real estate market has a reversal,Market and administrative power game increasing,If do not add inhibition,House prices could cause malignant boom will again。For local government for,Only to transform the traditional concept of land finance,Is long out of the economic difficulties way out。
两难:珠海“双限令”欲松又紧 dilemma:zhuhai“Double limit make”Want to loose and tight
13日晚间,有珠海房地产业内人士在微博上报料称“珠海市政府会议决定全市取消限价,前山河以西取消限购”。
13 night,Zhuhai real estate industry in a blog is discommodious says“The zhuhai municipal government decided to cancel the meeting in the city limit,Former west of sunvo company 限购 cancelled”。
但随后,戏剧化的一幕发生。14日凌晨,珠海市住房和城乡规划建设局表示,目前珠海市房地产市场调控的具体措施没有任何调整。至此珠海取消“双限令”政策仅存活了5个多小时。
But then,The dramatic scene。14, before,Zhuhai municipal housing and urban and rural planning construction bureau said,At present the real estate market in zhuhai regulation of the specific measures without any adjustments。So far the zhuhai cancel“Double limit make”The only policy live more than five hours。
珠海市住建局负责人表示,珠海确实研究过类似的政策。将来会不会调整,要根据上级政策进一步研究决定。
Zhuhai living building bureau chief said,Zhuhai really studied a similar policy。The future will not be changed,According to the policy to further study。
去年11月1日,珠海决定对香洲区实行限购政策,同时在全市实行限价政策,成为全国首个实行楼市双限政策的城市。8个多月来,“双限令”确实让珠海楼市迅速陷入冰封。网签数据显示,今年1月份,珠海楼市只售出231套住房,比双限前下降了43.7%。在房价方面, 2012年6月珠海一手房均价为10357元/平方米,这也是珠海房价从2月份开始连续五个月出现下降。
Last November 1,,Zhuhai decided to implement a symposium 限购 policy,At the same time in the city of price fixing the policy,To become the country's first practice market the two-limited policy city。8 months to,“Double limit make”Does make zhuhai property market rapidly into a frozen。Nets sign data shows,In January this year,Zhuhai property market sold only 231 housing units,Double limit than before down 43.7%。In house prices in, In June 2012 a room for 10357 zhuhai average yuan/square metre,This is also the zhuhai house prices from February for five consecutive months began to fall。
珠海市有关官员曾对媒体坦言,珠海一季度GDP增长4.1%,在广东倒数第二,税收收入遭遇负增长,土地出让收入大幅度落后于计划进度,这是珠海希望松绑楼市调控的主要原因。
Zhuhai municipal officials had said to the media,Zhuhai quarter GDP growth of 4.1%,Second from bottom in guangdong,Tax revenue in negative growth,Land transfer income substantially behind schedule,This is zhuhai hope the main reason for the regulation of individual property market。
据悉,房地产一直是珠海税收的重要来源,根据珠海市财政局披露,2011年上半年房地产业税收对珠海市税收增收贡献度达到63.8%,超过六成。而在2012年一季度,珠海全市没有土地出让。
It is reported,Real estate tax has been an important source of zhuhai,According to the zhuhai municipal bureau of finance disclosure,In the first half of 2011 real estate tax income tax contribution of zhuhai reached 63.8%,More than sixty percent。And in the first quarter in 2012,Zhuhai city no land transfer。
对于珠海楼市松绑政策“一日游”,北京大学公共经济研究中心研究员韩世同表示,珠海松绑"双限令"目前是不合时宜的。
Zhuhai property market for easing policy“Day tour”,Beijing university public economic research fellow of the center HanShiTong said,Zhuhai easing"Double limit make"At present, that are not appropriate。
“从珠海扑朔迷离的双限令变更过程看,挑战中央调控政策底线的迹象是很明显的。今年之内,取消限购没有可能。”易居中国董事局主席周忻说。
“The bewildering from zhuhai double limit make the process of change,Challenge the central control policies signs of bottom line is very obvious。Within this year,Cancel 限购 impossible。”Enjoysmart board chairman of China ZhouXin said。
尴尬:房地产依赖遭遇“调控不放松” embarrassed:Real estate depend on experience“Regulation not to relax”
从2011年8月18日至今,全国已有近40个城市试探“楼市政策微调”,内容涉及税费优惠、住宅标准、住房补贴、贷款额度等方面。其中除了涉及放宽限购条件的佛山、中山、郑州、珠海等六个城市被叫停外,其他25个城市的“微调”均获得了某种程度的默许。6月25日,河南省住建厅等6部门联合下发文件,拟对首套房不再“认房又认贷”,并鼓励首套房贷七折利率,但仅仅在一天之后,上述文件即被终止。
From 18 April 2011 up to now,The country had been nearly 40 cities test“Fine-tuning property market”,Content involves tax concessions、Residential standard、Housing subsidies、Loans, etc。One of the conditions of the 限购 involved in addition to relax in foshan、zhongshan、zhengzhou、Zhuhai six cities outside have been stopped,25 other city“fine-tuning”All have a degree of tacit approval。June 25,,Henan province built office, and other 6 departments live jointly issued documents,The first is to suite no longer“Recognize room and recognition credit”,And encourage the first set of mortgage interest rate seventy percent,But only in the day after,The above documents will be terminated。
业内人士指出,地方政府的财政压力凸显。在找不到新的增长点,来对冲经济和财政收入的下滑时,地方政府只好惯性地打起了土地财政的主意。
Industry insiders point,The local government financial pressure highlights。In to find new growth point,To hedge economic and fiscal income dropped,The local government had to beat up the inertia land financial idea。
今年以来,我国房地产投资增速回落明显。国家统计局数据显示,上半年房地产开发投资增长16.6%,比上年同期回落16.3个百分点。国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长盛来运日前表示,房地产的主动调控在短期内是影响我国经济增长速度下滑的一个重要原因。
Since this year,China's real estate investment growth dropped significantly。The national bureau of statistics data shows,Real estate development investment grew by 16.6% in the first half,A drop of 16.3% from the same period a year earlier。The national bureau of statistics spokesman、The national economy of comprehensive statistics of priests and to transport said yesterday,Real estate active control in the short term is effect on our country's economic growth rate of decline one important reason。
市场和行政力量的博弈不断加剧,在经济减速背景下,房地产调控无疑处于关键时期。虽然政府部门几次“喊话”调控不放松,但一些城市又出现了排队买房、开发商涨价、“地王”归来等现象,房价上涨预期强化。中国社会科学院研究员曹建海认为,房地产市场已经出现反转,如果不加抑制的话恐将再次引起恶性暴涨。对于地方政府来说,只有转变土地财政的传统观念,才是长久摆脱经济困境的出路。
Market and administrative power game increasing,Under the background in the economic slowdown,Real estate regulation was clearly key time。Although the government a few times“propaganda”Regulation not to relax,But some city again appeared queuing to buy a house、Developers prices、“royal”Return the phenomenon such as,Rising house prices expected to strengthen。The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher CaoJianHai think,The real estate market has a reversal,If not add words could inhibit will again cause malignant boom。For local government for,Only to transform the traditional concept of land finance,Is long out of the economic difficulties way out。
中华工商时报评论认为,地方政府在楼市政策上频繁地试探中央的调控底线,进一步凸显了在国内外经济处于“寒冬”之际,地方政府“稳增长”的压力和经济转型升级的艰难。如何稳妥把握“稳增长”和“调结构”的关系,找到新的经济增长点,如何增强经济发展的活力和可持续性,无疑考验着地方主政官员的执政智慧和能力。
The industry and commerce times commentary think,The local government in housing policy frequently test the regulation of the bottom line,Further underlined the economy is at home and abroad“winter”of,Local government“Steady growth”The pressure and economic transformation and upgrading of difficult。How to grasp the safety“Steady growth”and“Adjustable structure”relationship,Find new economic growth point,How to enhance the vitality of economic development and sustainable,No doubt the local officials who test the ruling wisdom and ability。
北京大学房地产研究所所长陈国强接受媒体采访时说,目前,房地产行业面临更复杂的调控局面,市场形态没有本质变化。今年下半年,政策上仍将保持高压态势,从严调控楼市。
Beijing university of institute of real estate Chen guoqiang accept interview with the media,At present,The real estate industry will face more complex control of the situation,Market the form is not essential change。The second half of this year,Policy will remain high pressure situation,Strictly control property market。
业内人士指出,中央决策层之所以一直不断地强调,要毫不动摇地坚持楼市调控,促使房价合理回归,就是要通过压力促使中国经济结构的转型升级,通过牺牲眼前的发展速度,从而获得长期的可持续发展。这是中央政府的底线。如果房价出现反复,仍可能进一步出台限制性政策。(中新网房产频道)
Industry insiders point,The central decision-making was constantly stressed,Will unswervingly adhere to the property market regulation,House prices reasonable to return,Is to through the pressure of the economic structure of China to upgrade,Through the sacrifice of the sight development speed,So as to achieve long-term sustainable development。This is the central government of the bottom line。If house prices appeared again and again,Still may be further issued restrictive policy。(Beijing real estate channel)
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