购房者在楼盘销售处选房 The person that buy a house in the estate sales choose room商报记者 谭亚 Business newspaper reporter TanYa

　　昨日，国家统计局发布了6月份全国70个大中城市房价数据，25个城市的新建商品住宅价格出现环比上涨，上涨城市的个数比5月增加了19个；31个城市的二手住宅价格出现环比上涨，环比价涨的城市个数也增多。房价上涨倒逼楼市调控。

yesterday，The national bureau of statistics released in June 70 major cities across the country house price data，25 cities of new commodity residential house price rising appear annulus，The number of city rise than may increase the 19；31 city house prices rising annulus secondhand appear，Ring up the number of city versus the increase。Rising house prices DaoBi property market regulation。

　　相比之下，重庆楼市似乎表现出了企稳状态，连续三个月（4月、5月、6月）新建商品住宅成交价格环比实现持平。

compared，Chongqing property market seems to show the state of stabilising，Three consecutive months（April、may、June）New commodity residential clinch a deal the price annulus comparing realize flat。

　　全国

national

　　6月房价环比上涨城市超前5月总和

June house prices rose city may advance month-on-month combined

　　一路下跌的房价环比数据，在6月份集中走高。国家统计局发布的数据显示，6月共有25个城市环比价格上涨，包括北京、上海等一线城市，数量超过前5月总和。记者查阅数据发现，5月份环比价格上涨的城市仅6个。

All the way falling home prices annulus comparing data，In June to high concentration。Published by the national bureau of statistics data shows，June there were 25 cities annulus comparing prices，Including Beijing、Shanghai city a line，More than five months before the combined。Reporters access to data found，In may the rising price of annulus comparing only six cities。

　　同比来看，大部分城市的新建商品住宅价格仍在走低，70个城市中价格下降的有57个，相比5月增加2个；持平的城市有2个；上涨的城市有11个，涨幅均未超过1.2%。

Up to see，Most of the city's new commodity residential house prices are still low，70 cities in the decrease in the prices of 57，On may increase compared to two；The city has two flat；The rise of the city has 11，Or have not more than 1.2%。

　　二手房基本上和新房的变化保持一致。70个大中城市中，环比价格下降的城市有19个，比5月减少了11个；持平的城市有20个；上涨的城市有31个，上涨个数比5月增加了13个。环比价格上涨的城市中，涨幅均未超过1.1%，涨幅比5月稍微扩大。

Secondhand the room basically the change of bridal chamber and consistent。In 70 major cities，Annulus comparing the decrease in the prices of city has 19，On may reduce than 11；The city has a flat 20；The rise of the city has 31，Rising than may increase the number 13。Annulus comparing prices in the city，Or have not more than 1.1%，Or a bit larger than 5 months。

　　三方面原因导致房价上涨

Three reasons lead to higher prices

　　是什么原因导致6月份多个城市房价环比上涨？对此，国家统计局高级统计师马晓明认为主要有三个方面，一是利率下调，购房成本下降，购房人的经济负担有所减轻，部分人的购房意愿增强；二是随着前期累积的刚性需求和改善性需求有所释放，特别是市场对房价走势的预期出现一些变化，担心房价反弹；三是部分楼盘在以价换量获得较好的销售业绩后，取消折扣优惠，甚至调高价格。“由此可见，6月份一些城市房价环比上涨的原因是多方面的，并且具有一定的特殊性。”马晓明说。

What causes June cities rising house prices annulus？this，The national bureau of statistics senior statistician MaXiaoMing think three main areas，One is the interest rate cuts，Purchase cost down，The person that buy a house to ease the financial burden，Part of people's purchase intend to increase；2 it is the accumulation of rigid with demand and improve sexual needs to release，Especially the market prices of the trend is expected to appear some changes，Worry about house prices rebound；3 it is part of the building to change in price is obtained good sales performance，Cancel the discount，Even raise prices。“This shows，June some cities rising house prices annulus comparing many reasons，And has some particularity。”MaXiao testified。

　　马晓明认为，我国房地产市场调控仍然处在关键时期，调控任务还很艰巨。必须毫不动摇地继续推进房地产市场各项调控工作，把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策，防止变相放松购房政策，促使房价合理回归，绝不能让房价反弹，造成功亏一篑。随着这些政策的再次明确，我国住宅价格变动将会趋于理性。

MaXiaoMing think，China's real estate market regulation is still in a critical period，Regulation is very arduous task。Must unswervingly to continue to push forward the real estate market various control work，The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy，Prevent in disguised form relax purchase policies，House prices reasonable to return，Never let a house prices rebound，Cause failed。As these policy clear again，Our country house price change will tend to be rational。

　　基本面并不支持价格反弹

Fundamental does not support price rebound

　　20多个城市房价环比出现上涨，是阶段性盘整还是新一轮的“拐点”初现？

More than 20 city house prices rose annulus，Is a new round of consolidation or stage“Inflection point”Is beginning to？

　　同策咨询研究中心总监张宏伟分析认为，从近期房价变化情况来看，尽管环比上涨的城市数量未过半，但也显示出涨价的城市数量扩大的态势，这也正好符合近期成交量持续两三个月回升的市场背景。不过，由于“去投资化”的限购限贷政策尚未明显松动，因此，房价年内出现大幅反弹的可能性几乎没有，但是房价下跌的动力会逐步消失，未来房价有可能表现为降幅收窄，或微幅上涨。

Strategy consulting research center director with d that analysis，From a recent house prices change the situation，Despite the rise in the number of cities not the annulus more than half，But it also shows that the number of cities expand the prices of the situation，This is exactly the volume of recent for two three months back up market background。but，because“To invest in the”限购 limit of credit policy has not been obvious loose，so，House prices year period the possibility of rebound sharply almost there，But the power of falling house prices will gradually disappear，The future house prices have may appear by narrow，Or rose slightly。

　　张宏伟认为，现在整体市场还只是局限于商品住宅市场两三个月短期内的成交量的回升，并且成交量的回升还没有传导到让开发企业加大新开工面积或房地产投资，从这个角度来讲，市场“基本面”还不为太乐观，并不支持价格普遍反弹涨价。

D think，Now the whole market is only limited to commodity residential market two or three months of short term volume to bounce back，And volume picks up is not to let the conduction enterprise to increase development new commenced area or the real estate investment，From this Angle，market“fundamentals”Don't be too optimistic，Does not support the general price rebound in price。

　　就全国而言，政策面“降息”“降准”等市场叠加效应，对于房地产市场继续“放量”起到刺激作用。张宏伟预测，今年下半年楼市成交量将好于上半年，成交方面应该在下半年的这个时间窗继续保持“放量”。

For the，policy“Cut interest rates”“Drop must”Market superimposition effect etc，For the real estate market to continue“peatlands”Play a stimulating effect。D a prediction，The second half of this year property market turnover will be better than the first half，In the second half of the year should deal to keep this time window“peatlands”。

　　重庆

chongqing

　　1~2月环比下降、3月环比上涨、4~6月环比持平

1 ~ 2 y/y decline、3 rising y/y、4 ~ 6 y/y flat

　　今年前6月我市房价上演“过山车”

Before this year on June the our city on house prices“Roller coaster”

　　与全国新建商品住宅环比价格走势有些不同的是，重庆新建商品住宅的环比价格已经连续3个月持平了。昨日，记者梳理数据发现，从2月份开始，短短4个月之间，我市新建住宅的环比价格经历了下跌、上涨和持平三个阶段，我市楼市是否已提前企稳？

And the new commodity residential house price trends some different annulus is，Chongqing new commodity residential house prices have the annulus comparing the same for three months。yesterday，The reporter found combing data，Since February，Only four months between，The new residence of the annulus comparing prices experienced decline、Rise and flat three stages，The housing market is already stabilising in advance？

　　前6月房价上演“过山车”

The first six months on house prices“Roller coaster”

　　从今年年初开始，我市房地产市场几乎是坐了一趟“过山车”。1月份，我市新建商品住宅价格同比下降0.7%，环比下降0.2%，在全国70个大中城市中，同比环比跌幅均排在第五位；2月份，我市房价出现“双降”，环比下降0.1%，同比下降1.1%，环比降幅较1月份收窄；3月份，我市新建商品住宅价格出现在环比上涨的城市中，上涨0.2%。

From the beginning of the year，The real estate market is almost on a visit“Roller coaster”。January，The new commodity residential house price 0.7% year-on-year drop，Annulus comparing fell 0.2%，70 major cities all over the country，Year-on-year drop in November are row fifth place；February，Zhuhai house prices appear“Double down”，Annulus comparing fell 0.1%，1.1% year-on-year drop，Annulus in January by a narrow；march，The new commodity residential house prices appear in the rise of the annulus in the city，Up 0.2%。

　　而从4月开始，据国家统计局发布的数据显示，我市新建商品住宅价格环比出现持平，环比持平状态一直持续到了6月份。

And in April，According to published by the national bureau of statistics data shows，The new commodity residential house prices flat month-on-month appear，Flat month-on-month state until June。

　　多数开发商不会主动提价

Most developers can't active raised the price

　　房价环比数据连续3个月持平，事实上在此期间，我市开发商却在铆足劲促销跑量，如4月份的春交会以及5月份的抢收“红五月”。但为何房价环比却持续保持持平？

House prices annulus comparing data for three months flat，In fact in this period，But in our city developers supercharged strength promotion run quantity，As spring in April and may QiangShou“Red may”。But why house prices but maintain flat month-on-month？

　　重庆容磁咨询公司总经理王雪松分析认为，这首先是与供应楼市的产品结构有关，3月份一批中低端刚需房源受到市场青睐，加速了一些别墅和花园洋房项目趁机入市，结构的多样性消化了成交价格的“参差不齐”。此外，开发商倾向于以价换量，因此在交易量上升的情况下，价格变化不大。“目前整个重庆楼市缺乏上涨动力，正处于一个盘整阶段。”王雪松说。

Chongqing let magnetic consulting company general manager WangXueSong analysis thinks，The first is the product structure of property market and supply relevant，In march a group of ZhongDiDuan just need by market, expand the favour，Speed up the house and garden villa some project took the opportunity to market，The diversity of the structure of the digestion to clinch a deal the price“uneven”。In addition，Developers tend to change in price quantity，So in volume up，Prices haven't changed much。“The current lack of chongqing property market rising power，Is in a consolidation stage。”WangXueSong said。

　　中原地产重庆公司副总经理何伟坚受访时称，从市场传导的信息来看，目前开发商都比较谨慎，基本上没有因为最近的降息等政策去调高价格，价格比较稳定。但记者近日踩盘了解到，目前我市个别楼盘价格出现了上涨，如位于鹅公岩大桥附近的某楼盘，年初均价在8000元左右，目前已涨至10000元左右；照母山附近某楼盘，也于本周开始提价。对此，何伟坚说，目前很难用“个案”或“现象”去判断这种提价行为，在国家调控政策不放松的情况下，开发商的态度依然比较谨慎，大部分不会主动提价。

Centaline property chongqing the vice general manager said HeWeiJian said，From market transmission of information and see，At present the developers are cautious，Basically do not have because of recent rate cut and other policies to raise prices，Prices remain stable。But recently, reporters know on offer，At present our city individual building dish appear rising prices，If be located in male goose bridge near a building dish of rock，Average price in early in 8000 yuan，At present has up to 10000 yuan；As the mother of a building near a mountain，Also in this week started to raise prices。this，HeWeiJian said，It is hard to use“case”or“phenomenon”To judge the raise price behavior，In the national regulation policy not to relax，The attitude of the developers is still cautious，Most don't active raised the price。

　　投资行为或在下半年进场

Investment behavior or in the second half of the approach

　　记者从多家监测机构了解到，进入7月，我市新建商品住宅价格环比出现微涨。据中国指数研究院统计数据显示，7月9日~15日，主城区商品房成交均价为6886元/平方米，环比上升364元，涨幅为5.58%。

Reporters from several monitoring institutions to understand，Into July，The new commodity residential house price annulus comparing closed up there。According to the Chinese index academy statistics show，July 9 ~ 15,，The price for the main urban areas commodity house 6886 yuan/square metre，Annulus comparing rose 364 yuan，5.58% increase。

　　鲁能地产重庆公司营销部经理陈勇认为，这仅是一个阶段性的表现，决定下半年我市房地产市场走势的仍然是政策面。根据本月发布的上半年全国经济数据，房地产投资缩水最快，已影响到GDP数据，因而他认为宏观政策已经“触底”，后市会更多考虑稳增长。近期央行降息加大流动性，或对房产调控政策起到“软化”的作用。

Shandong luneng real estate company Marketing Department manager Chen yong think of chongqing，This is only a stage performance，The second half of the real estate market movements to the policy is still face。According to the first half of the national released this month by the economic data，Real estate investment shrink the fastest，Has affected the GDP data，So he think macro policy has“Hit bottom”，Market outlook will consider more steady growth。Recent fed increase liquidity，Or to the estate has control policies“softening”role。

　　陈勇预计，投资商业、住宅的行为或会在下半年进场。目前，我市的投资比例在全国占比不高，也给投资市场预留了空间。他认为，下半年的市场或会吸引投资者和多次改善性住房需求入市，楼市或迎来比上半年更好的行情。

Chen yong is expected to，Investment business、The behavior of house or will play in the second half。At present，The our city in the national accounts for the proportion of the investment than is not high，Also to investment market obligate space。He thinks，In the second half of the market or will attract investors and many times improve housing demand of market，Housing or have a better option than the first half。

　　追问

cross-examine

　　稳增长如何防范房地产借机涨价？

Steady growth of real estate taking to prevent price？

　　如今房价会不会“触底反转”？新的形势下楼市走势如何？市场博弈双方谁能胜算？“稳增长”政策下，如何防范房地产借机涨价？有关楼市的预期牵动人心。

Now house prices will not“A touch on the reverse”？The new situation of the property market trend？Market players who can win？“Steady growth”policy，How to prevent real estate prices looking？The property market expectations affect the heart。

　　楼市风云突变，房价果真起底？

Fast-changing market，If the house prices up？

　　最近楼市“回暖”引发多方博弈，市场上有人热炒房价即将“反转”。但全国工商联房地产商会会长聂梅生表示，尽管成交量有所回升，但楼市呈现的还是触底态势。

Recent market“warmed”Cause many game，The market is folly, someone house prices“reversal”。But the national federations of industry and commerce of real estate chamber of commerce NieMeiSheng said，Although volume have rebounded，But the home of the present or a touch on the situation。

　　专家认为，一方面，库存等大部分房地产指标依然低迷；另一方面，限购、限贷等调控政策基本面未改，这决定了房价短期“反转”可能性不大。

Experts say，On the one hand，Inventory and most real estate index downturn continues；On the other hand，限购、Credit limit and not change control policy fundamentals，To determine the short-term house prices“reversal”unlikely。

　　“楼市回暖只是局部的、阶段性的，绝大部分是刚性需求的释放，短期内房价不可能出现报复性反弹。”新世界中国地产（海口）有限公司营销副总监莫添瑜说。

“Property market warms up just local、Phases of，Most is a basic need the release，The short term rates are possible retaliatory rebound。”New world China real estate（haikou）Limited company marketing vice director don't add yu said。

　　国家统计局数据显示，今年上半年，全国商品房待售面积31408万平方米，增长33.1%。“巨大的库存和消化库存的较慢节奏，意味着今明两年房地产行业仍将比较低迷。”北京师范大学金融研究中心主任钟伟说。

The national bureau of statistics data shows，In the first half of this year，The national commodity house for sale area of 314.08 million square meters，33.1% increase。“Huge inventory and digestive inventory slower pace，Means that in the two years real estate industry will still low。”Beijing normal university financial research center director ZhongWei said。

　　国土资源部有关部门负责人近日表示，近期个别城市再现高价地，并未改变市场整体偏冷的格局。

The director of the department of land and resources said recently，The recent individual cities representation to higher prices，Did not change the pattern of the overall market slants cold。

　　楼市借机松绑，谁是背后推手？

Property market taking the REINS，Who is behind push？

　　记者追踪发现，凭借宏观政策由“控物价”转向“稳增长”之机，一些地方政府流露出加快为楼市“松绑”的迹象，试图尽快扭转“土地财政”收入下滑现状。一些被曝光的案例显示，部分城市对涉及违规骗取购房资格的开发商、中介和个人，实际上采取默许态度。

Reporter tracking found，With the macro policy“Control prices”Turned to“Steady growth”Machine of，Some local governments reveals the speed up the housing market“easing”Signs of，Trying to reverse as soon as possible“Land financial”Revenue declined status。Some cases of exposure display，Parts of the city to defraud the irregular purchase qualified developers、Intermediary and personal，In fact take tacitly attitude。

　　试图改变房价预期的另一个推手是开发商。记者采访发现，一些开发商借一些地方政府“暗助”，开始打起楼盘涨价的主意，积极释放“房价已见底、调控将放松”的信号，诱导购房者出手。业内人士透露，部分开发商借市场阶段性“回暖”之机，甚至自导自演“楼市热销、供需两旺”的假象，为炒作涨价铺路。

Prices are expected to try to change another push is developers。Reporters found，Some developers to borrow some local governments“Dark help”，Start up the idea of building prices，Positive release“House prices already see bottom、Regulation will relax”signal，Induction homebuyers make moves。Industry insiders said，Some developers by market phases“warmed”Machine of，Even the self-guided act“Property market sell like hot cakes、Supply and demand two popular”Illusions of the，Prices for paving the hype。

　　房价再度反弹，市民能否承受？

House prices rebound again，Citizens can withstand？

　　“如果房价再来一轮大涨，后果会很严重。”海口市民李晓岩说，“不能中断房地产调控，那样房价必然会报复性反弹，购房自住的市民根本无法承受。”

“If house prices surged to another round，The consequences will be very serious。”Haikou people LiXiaoYan said，“Real estate regulation can be interrupted，That house prices will rebound reprisal，Since the citizens live that buy a house can not take it。”

　　针对消费者的疑虑，住建部等四部委最近频频释放楼市调控不动摇的信号，有关部门领导也一再强调继续实施严格的房地产调控政策。“在"稳增长"政策下，楼市调控的变化只是更加重视刚性需求，抑制投机性需求的政策没有改变。”顾云昌等专家说。

In the light of consumer concerns，Live JianBu four ministries has been release property market regulation unwavering signal，Leaders of relevant departments also stressed that continue to implement strict control policy of real estate。“in"Steady growth"policy，The change of market regulation just pay more attention of the rigid demand，Restrain the speculative demand policy has not changed。”GuYunChang experts said。

　　有关专家表示，在保增长的基调下要捍卫调控成果，必须加快建立房地产市场调控的长效机制。例如房产税改革应该加快，城市住房信息联网工作也应该加快。

Experts said，In the tone of the growth under control results to defend，We must establish the long-term mechanism of real estate market regulation。Such as housing property tax reform should speed up，City housing information networking work should also speed up。

　　“当前楼市调控的重点仍是开发商和购房者，对土地、银行等其他利益主体的调控力度不够。”聂梅生认为，房价涉及多元主体，今后应配套推进土地、金融、财税、产业结构、收入分配等一系列制度改革，推动整体经济和房地产行业良性发展。

“The current housing market regulation of the key is still developers and consumers，To the land、Banks and other interests of the main body of the control power is not enough。”NieMeiSheng think，House prices involving multiple subject，In future, we must complementarily promote land、financial、Finance and tax、Industrial structure、A series of income distribution system reform，To promote the overall economy and real estate industry development。

　　据新华社

According to xinhua news agency

　　观点

view

　　靠房地产救经济无疑是饮鸩止渴

By real estate save economic undoubtedly is the remedy is worse than the

　　人民日报批部分专家“地产才是大救星”言论

People's Daily part of experts“Real estate is the savior”speech

　　在二季度GDP增速3年来又跌破8%后，房地产市场能否再度引领经济上涨引发了公众的广泛关注，近日呼唤楼市调控政策放松的声音不绝于耳，有学者甚至公开表示“放松调控信心”，“地产才是大救星”。对此，大多数专家认为，房地产调控政策绝不能放松，要谨防房地产借机要挟中国经济。只有转变经济增长方式、调整经济结构才是中国经济长期可持续发展的正确道路，仍然走依靠房地产带动经济增长的老路无疑是饮鸩止渴。

In the second quarter GDP growth for three years and after fell below 8%，The real estate market can lead economic rise again caused wide public concern，Recently called property market regulation policy relaxed voice heard，Some scholars even openly“Relax regulation confidence”，“Real estate is the savior”。this，Most experts think，Real estate control policies can never relax，Real estate of China's economic hostage taking。Only to transform the pattern of economic growth、The adjustment of economic structure for long-term economic sustainable development is the correct road，Still go on real estate promoting economic growth is undoubtedly the remedy is worse than the old。

　　调控将使楼市泡沫沉渣泛起

Regulation will make the market bubble on sediment

　　对于当前市场出现“只有给楼市松绑才能保增长”的观点，中国房地产研究会副会长顾云昌表示，这种以房地产拖累经济为由要求放松调控政策，正是我们所担心的。现在房地产调控的压力来自于人们将楼市与GDP捆绑的思维，忽视了调控对抑制房价过快上涨所取得的成效。

For the current market appear“Only to the property market to relax the growth”Point of view，China real estate research board vice-chairman GuYunChang said，This real estate drag on the economy requirements relax regulation policies，What we have to worry about。Now the pressure comes from real estate regulation in people with GDP of the property market will be bound thinking，Ignore the regulation to control the house price rising rapidly the effect。

　　专家普遍认为，房地产调控政策松绑从短期看可能会对经济产生刺激作用，但从长期来看，这无异于是饮鸩止渴，将使受到挤压的房地产泡沫沉渣泛起，危害中国经济的健康发展。

Experts generally agree，Real estate control policy easing in the short term may be on economic has the stimulation，But in the long run，The remedy is worse than the this just like so，By extrusion will make the real estate bubble on sediment，The healthy development of China's economic harm。

　　调控应去投资投机化保刚需

Regulation should be to investment of the need to just speculation

　　“当前房地产宏观调控若戛然而止会让宏观调控陷入一种危险境地。”中国社会科学院金融研究所研究员易宪容表示，在当前经济转型的关键时刻，政府首先必须冲破GDP增长拜物教意识的禁锢，彻底舍弃通过住房市场投机炒作短期内推高GDP增长的幻想，在挤出巨大房地产泡沫的同时，建立起稳定经济增长扩大内需的长效机制。这种长效机制最为核心的内容，就是让住房价格回归到合理水平。

“The current real estate macro regulation will make an abrupt end if macroeconomic regulation and control into a dangerous situation。”The Chinese academy of social sciences researcher at the institute of financial YiXianRong said，In the current economic transformation of the key moment，The government first must break through the GDP growth fetishism confined consciousness，Completely give up through the housing market speculating in the short term push the high GDP growth of fantasy，Out of the real estate bubble in huge at the same time，Establishing a stable economic growth in the long-term mechanism of the expansion of domestic demand。The long-term mechanism of the most key content，Is to make the housing price return to a reasonable level。

　　“如果再次启动刺激性的财政政策，只会导致更多的过剩产能，而银根的放松则会再度推高刚刚控制下来的通货膨胀。”亚太城市房地产研究院院长谢逸枫表示，大规模的经济刺激计划不会再出台，今年下半年中央以“稳”字当头，维持“既有政策”作为楼市调控思路。房地产调控政策微调应该在去投资投机化的同时，保刚需与改善置业人群的合理购买需求，达到拉动销售成交，推动投资增长的目的。据人民日报

“If the restart excitant fiscal policy，Will only lead to more excess capacity，And the relaxation of the monetary policy will be pushed higher again just control down inflation。”The city real estate research institute President XieYiFeng said，The scale of the economic stimulus plan won't come，Central to the second half of this year“stability”Character overhead，maintain“Both policy”As the housing market regulation ideas。Real estate control policies should be to investment in fine-tuning the speculation at the same time，The just and to the improvement of the reasonable people buy real estate needs，To lift sales clinch a deal，The purpose of promoting investment growth。According to People's Daily