“地王”总是能让人浮想联翩。

“royal”Always can let a person anywhere。

　　6月以来，3个大城市相继出现新地王。

Since June of，Three big cities have new royal。

　　先是广州，恒大地产以13.22亿元拿下珠江新城D4-B2地块，折合楼面价32968元/平方米。然后是北京，中赫置地以26.3亿元的价格、配建16400平方米回购房的条件，拿下海淀区万柳地区居住用地，楼面价达到4.42万元/平方米。最新的地王来自天津，中海地产以29.7亿元的价格拿下八里台原师范大学地块，成交楼面地价达到13026元/平方米。

First the guangzhou，Evergrande real estate with 1.322 billion yuan D4-had pearl river new town B2 plot，Into the floor price 32968 yuan/square metre。Then is Beijing，In trading Hector the price with 2.63 billion yuan、PeiJian 16400 square meters back to purchase terms，Win in haidian district habitable land there，Floor price reach 44200 yuan/square metre。The latest royal from tianjin，China real estate with 2.97 billion yuan price BaLiTai had the normal university plot，Clinch a deal price floor up to 13026 yuan/square metre。

　　6月之前，包括上述3个城市在内的全国土地市场还依然是一片萧条，土地流拍频频发生。没有人想到，进入6月，就会出现这样的场景。

Six months before，Including the above three cities, the national land market still is a depression，Land flow pat occurred frequently。No one thought，Into June，There will be such a scene。

　　这不免让人紧张，因为全国范围内，限购政策还没有出现任何松动的迹象，这些开发商为什么就突然舍得拿出大把银子往土地市场上砸呢？

This is unavoidable make people nervous，Because the national scope，限购 policies have not been any signs of loose，These developers why suddenly willing to take out money to go to land on the market hit？

　　如果单纯从上述3个城市的“地王”本身来分析的话，共同的答案就是：这3个地块本身就不是白菜，当然不能按白菜价出让。

If simple 3 cities from the above“royal”Itself to analysis of words，Common answer is：The three plot itself is not Chinese cabbage，Of course not according to the cabbage price。

　　当然，事情并非如此简单。

Of course，Things are not so simple。

　　如果把目光放远就会发现，自从限购政策出台以来，土地出让，尤其是优质地块的出让，一下子就减少了许多。政府推出的土地，绝大多数是城市的远郊地区，周边设施完备的地块一直未能进入政府推地的计划表。

If look farther will find，Since 限购 since policies，Land transfer，Especially the high quality of the plot，Suddenly reduce a lot of。The government launched the land，Most of the city is suburban districts，Peripheral facility complete plot had been unable to push into the government to schedule。

　　这就是说，土地市场的供应吊足了开发商的胃口，当政府推出一块好地块的时候，开发商自然是饿虎扑食。

This means that，The supply of land market appetizing the developer's appetite，When the government launched a piece of good plot，Developers nature is EHuPuShi。

　　这样的土地供应让地方政府同样不那么舒服，集中的表现就是，自从限购政策执行以来，土地市场骤然跌入冰点。不好的地块，开发商也没有太多兴趣，所以我们看到土地流拍各地频现。

Such land supply let local government also not so comfortable，The performance is concentrated，Since 限购 since the policy implementation，The land market suddenly fell into freezing point。Bad plot，Developers are not much interest in，So we see land flow around take frequent。

　　土地财政可是大多数城市的命根子，持续冷清的土地市场，带来的是地方政府愈发沉重的财政压力。

But most of the city land financial bag，Continuous cold and cheerless land market，Bring is the local government has heavy financial pressure。

　　财政部日前公布的数字显示，上半年全国国有土地使用权出让收入为11430亿元，同比减少4342亿元，下降27.5%。

The Treasury announced a few days ago digital display，The transfer of state-owned land use right in the first half of the national income is 1.143 trillion yuan，Up to reduce 434.2 billion yuan，Down 27.5%。

　　按照北京中原的统计，今年1~6月，全国13个重点城市居住、商办用地成交量同比分别下降约42%及35%，土地出让金同比下降超过四成。

According to the statistics of Beijing central plains，1 ~ 6 month this year，The national 13 key urban living、Tradesmen managing land volume drop respectively compared to about 42% and 35%，The land grant fee year-on-year drop more than forty percent。

　　在北京，上半年合计出让72个地块，总土地出让金仅为144.88亿元，比上年同期的328.46亿元下调了55.9%，这是北京最近5年来的最低值。

In Beijing，In the first half of the 72 total plots，Always the land grant fee is 14.488 billion yuan only，The more than the same period of 32.846 billion yuan cut by 55.9%，This is the lowest Beijing in the past five years。

　　在南京，上半年土地市场成交金额为101.96亿元，同比下降了三成多。

In nanjing，In the first half the land market clinch a deal amount is 10.196 billion yuan，Goes down more than thirty percent。

　　上海上半年土地成交共210幅，成交金额为184.42亿元。与去年同期相比，分别减少34.17%、62.62%。

In the first half of 210 Shanghai land deal painting，Clinch a deal amount is 18.442 billion yuan。Compared with the same period last year，Were reduced by 34.17%、62.62%。

　　一个新问题由此而来，为什么地方政府宁愿土地流拍也不愿意推出好地块？

A new problem from this and come，Why local governments would rather land flow is not willing to take out good plot？

　　答案很简单，当限购带来楼市交易冷清的情况下，地方政府并不愿贱卖土地以获取交易量的增长，地方政府要卖个好价钱。如果说市场形势不好就应该降价出售的话，在土地市场上，这个规律不起作用。

The answer is simple，When 限购 bring property market trading under the condition of cold and cheerless，The local government does not want to land for sale to get volume growth，The local government will sell a good price。If the market situation is not good should sale words，In the land market，The law doesn't work。

　　3月开始的楼市交易量回暖改变了这个僵持的局面。几个优质地块相继推出，至于价格，自然好得很。

3 month in the housing market volume thaw changed this stalemate situation。Several high-quality plot launched，As for price，Nature is good。

　　从7月开始，地方政府推地的节奏明显加快。

From July，The local government to push the obviously faster pace。

　　7月4日，上海市规划和国土资源管理局发布今年第一次预申请公告。其中，上海火车站北广场以北地块以47.46亿元的参考起始总价高调出场。

On July 4,，Municipal planning and land resources administration issued the first time this year the application for public announcement。Among them，Shanghai railway station, north of the north square plot with 4.746 billion yuan initial price for high-profile reference。

　　7月17日，北京共有5宗挂牌土地成交，其中3宗住宅用地成交出现明显溢价，而大兴区旧宫和通州区永顺镇两幅地块溢价率都超过45%。一天之内北京土地出让金收入超37亿元。

July 17,，Beijing with 5 cases of land for a deal，Three cases of housing land deal significant premium，And JiuGong daxing district and tongzhou district yongshun means two of land to the premium rate is more than 45%。Within a day of Beijing the land grant fee income exceeds 3.7 billion yuan。

　　同一天，南京国土局在其网站上连续发布41条土地出让预告，一天公告的出让土地总面积合计230.2万平方米。

On the same day，Choose nanjing on its web site released article 41 continuous land transfer forecast，One day the total land area of total announcement of 2.302 million square meters。

　　从目前来看，很难说几个地王的诞生会带来整体市场的彻底转暖。但不能否认的是，土地市场的形势正在发生变化。

For now，It's hard to say the birth of several star will bring the whole market thoroughly warmed。But it is undeniable that the，The land market situation is changing。

　　这样的变化会对楼市带来怎样的影响？

Such a change would bring about the housing what effect？

　　这是类似于先有鸡，还是先有蛋一样说不清的问题。

This is similar to the first chicken，Or have egg first as funny。

　　从3月以来，楼市的交易量一直在回暖。以北京为例，截至24日，7月以来北京新建住宅签约9296套，二手房住宅签约12313套，均创造了调控后新高，同比上月同期分别上涨幅度达到7.7%及34.3%；合计总签约21609套，同比上月上涨幅度达到21.4%。

Since march from，The volume in the property market has been warmed。For example Beijing，At 24,，Beijing new residence since July signing of 9296 sets，Secondhand the room house signing of 12313 sets，All created after the regulation hit a record high，Compared to the same period last month were 7.7% and 34.3% rises；A total of 21609 total signed，Have risen by 21.4% year-on-year last month。

　　不能说成交量的持续回暖不是受到了“地王”的刺激。就在北京“地王”诞生后，多个小区的二手房业主坐地涨价，多个楼盘价格上调。北京中原市场研究部统计数据显示：在6~7月成交量占据前100的住宅类物业中，成交均价上涨的达到43个项目，占比高达72%；个别项目成交均价上涨超过5%。

Can't say volume was not sustained progress“royal”stimulation。In Beijing“royal”After the birth of，More the secondhand the room with the price，Many projects.following price rises。Beijing central plains market research statistics show：In six to seven months of 100, the volume of top class in residential property，The price of the rising to 43 projects，Accounting for more than 72%；Individual project the price up more than 5%。

　　当然，同样不能说成交量的持续回暖就是“地王”刺激所致。

Of course，The same can't say volume is sustained progress“royal”Caused by stimulating。

　　楼市是一个特殊的市场，土地、信贷、政策、拆迁、人口结构、心理预期等任何一个因素的风吹草动都会带来市场的变化。

Housing is a special market，land、credit、policy、demolition、Population structure、Expected, such as any a factors will bring trouble the change of the market。

　　今年以来，中央多个部门不断表态坚定不移地做好房地产市场调控，累计算下来已经有10次。正常情况下，似乎不应该出现楼市交易量持续回暖的局面。但这种局面恰恰就是出现了。

Since this year，The central multiple department statement unswervingly to constantly real estate market regulation，Total have been worked out 10 times。normally，Don't seem to should appear property market volume of sustained progress situation。But the situation is precisely appeared。

　　有人说，这是刚需所致，有人说这是限购政策阻挡的住房需求正常释放，还有人说这是2011年下半年以来，全国陆续有40个城市微调政策所致。还有一个重要的原因，就是金融信贷政策的变化。

Some say，This is just need to be caused by，Some say this is 限购 policy blocking the housing needs of normal release，And others say it is 2011 years since the second half，The 40 cities has caused by fine-tuning policy。There is a important reason，Is financial credit policy changes。

　　从2月以来，我国货币政策已经出现两次降准、两次降息，很多专家预测，三季度非常有可能继续降准。这些政策释放的流动性必然会对楼市带来影响。

From 2 months，China's monetary policy has appeared two down time、Two cuts，Many experts predict，In the third quarter is very likely to continue down time。These policies will release liquidity to affect property market。

　　从另一个层面看，“地王”诞生、土地市场变化与货币政策的变化也有关系，因为货币政策变化带给开发商的是资金压力的减轻。

From another level to see，“royal”Was born、Land market change and monetary policy changes are related，Because the monetary policy change to the developers of funds is reducing the pressure。

　　几个“地王”的出现，并不能决定楼市的走向，但是，对楼市走向的关注，绝对不能轻视“地王”。

several“royal”appear，And the trend of the property market can't decide，but，About the housing to attention，Absolutely can't despise“royal”。