亚心网讯（记者关鸿江报道）到2012年6月，“史上最严厉”的房地产调控政策已经出台整整两周年。两年后的今天，房价依然是国人关注的焦点。

The heart network-（Reporter GuanHongJiang reported）To June 2012，“History's most severe”Control policy has worked out the real estate for two years after。Two years later，House prices are still is the focus of attention of the people。

　　房地产市场现在各种声音都有，有说仍在涨的，有说已在降的，有唱红脸的，也有唱白脸的，有唱盛的，也有唱衰的。就当下楼市诸多热点问题，记者电话采访了国内著名房地产专家、中国房地产及住宅研究会副会长顾云昌。

The real estate market now sounds，Have said is still in the rose，Have said has set up a file in the fall，Have the coaxes，Also have coerces，Sing and have the，Also have to sing to the end of。The housing market is many hot issue，In a telephone interview with the domestic famous real estate experts、China real estate and residential seminar GuYunChang vice President。

政策不会再紧也不会松 Policy won't tight or not loose

　　记者：国内房地产市场向来是政策市，您个人判断房产调控今后的走势会怎样？

reporter：Domestic real estate market has always been a policy city，Your personal property regulation of the future trend of judgment？

　　顾云昌：国内房地产市场政策走向，一个重要的方面还得看国内经济形势以及国际经济形势，因为房地产业目前依然是我国的支柱产业，房地产市场出问题，可能导致经济全局出问题，所以保持房地产市场平稳是很重要的。楼市调控还得考虑全局，根据经济形势来定，而国内的经济形势，又受国外经济形势影响很大，这些都是相关的。

GuYunChang：The real estate market to domestic policy，Another important aspect of see the domestic economic situation and the international economic situation，Because the real estate industry still is the pillar industry in China，The real estate market，May lead to global economic problems，So keep smooth real estate market is very important。Property market regulation also have to consider the situation，According to the economic situation to decide，While the economic situation，By foreign economic situation and influence，These are related。

　　虽说在宏观政策上，“稳增长”已被放到更重要的位置，并且目前楼市也已初现回暖的苗头，不过另一方面，国家对房地产宏观调控总的方针却一直并未改变，这也使得业内对楼市走向普遍持谨慎态度。目前，中央对楼市调控遵循的是"三不"方针，即房地产市场调控不放松、不动摇、不反复。这意味着房产调控暂时难以大放松，但是也不会再有更严厉的调控政策出台了。

Although the macroeconomic policy，“Steady growth”Already was put on more important position，And the housing market has also is beginning to thaw the symptom，But on the other hand，Countries on real estate macro-control general policy has been have not changed，It also makes about the housing industry to common cautious attitude。At present，The central committee of the property market regulation is followed"three"policy，That is the real estate market regulation not to relax、Not be moved、Not repeated。This means that house property regulation temporarily difficult to big relax，But also won't have more stringent regulation policies。

　　可以说，当前房地产市场主要由三种需求构成：投资投机需求、保障性需求和刚性需求，而国家对这三种需求分别采取了三种不同的措施，即打击投资投机需求、满足保障性需求、支持刚性需求，这也就构成了当前房地产市场调控的三大任务。

Can say，The current real estate market mainly by three demand together：Investment speculative demand、Security needs and rigid demand，And the state needs to take the three were three different measures，That is speculative demand against investment、Meet the security needs、Support basic need，It also make up the current real estate market regulation of the three major tasks。

　　国家调控的目的，并非要打压房地产市场，而是要打压投资性需求带来的房价过快上涨，所以未来房市调控可能要做的是怎么样更好地区分、辨别这三种不同的需求，从而使得房地产调控政策更具有准确性，使得房价更趋于合理，老百姓“住有所居”，而不是要去打压整个房地产市场。

The purpose of the national regulators，Not to crack down on the real estate market，But to crack down on an investment demand brought overheating in housing prices，So the future housing market regulation may want to do is how better region、Identify the three different needs，So that real estate control policy is more accurate，That house prices tend to be more reasonable，people“Live in some”，But not to crack down on the real estate market。

房价踏上合理回归之路 House prices on a reasonable return path

　　记者: 算起来，本轮房地产调控两年了，您个人如何看待房价回归合理之说？

Reporter: well，This real estate regulation for two years，How to think about your personal house prices reasonable return to say？

　　顾云昌：我个人认为，房价的合理回归，并不一定就是价格的下跌，而是要看收入与房价的关系，当收入的增长速度大于房价增长的速度，房价也算是合理的。要实现房价的合理回归，首先需要将居民收入和房价的关系理顺，一直以来房价的过快上涨即是由于房价涨幅高于居民收入增幅所致。

GuYunChang：I personally think，House prices reasonable regression，Not be a drop in prices，But to look at the relationship between income and house prices，When the income is growing faster than the speed of growth in house prices，House price is reasonable。To realize the reasonable prices back，Will first need to residents' income and house prices relationship straightened out，House prices have been rising rapidly as home prices to rise faster than that is caused by the residents' income growth。

　　举个例子，在房地产调控压力最强的2011年，就是收入涨得比房价快的一年。2011年我们全国居民收入平均涨了14%，房价涨了3%-4%，扣除CPI以后房价相当于没涨，扣除CPI以后收入涨了8%，居民收入增幅超过了房价上涨幅度，这是对房地产调控效果的肯定，也预示着房价踏上了合理回归之路。就是这样一种过程，这个过程我认为可以看作是房价合理回归的过程。

For example，Real estate in the 2011 strongest pressure control，Is the income has risen faster than house prices of a year。In 2011 we country residents income rose an average 14%，House prices rose by 3% to 4%，After deducting CPI house prices have not risen equivalent，After deducting CPI rose 8% income，Income growth more than the price rises，This is the affirmation of the effect of the real estate regulation，Also indicates the house prices on the rational return path。Is such a kind of process，This process I think can be regarded as a reasonable return house prices in the process。

　　楼市调控的最终目的是使房价回归到合理水平，但至于什么样的房价才是合理的价格，每个城市都有不同的标准。所以未来，可能有的房价过高的城市，房价还会回归，但是有一些城市，或许房价还会缓慢上涨，“涨跌不一”恐怕是未来国内房市的一个特征。而随着产业西移以及援疆政策利好因素的作用，乌鲁木齐的总体房价，基本会保持在合理水平并有所缓慢上涨。

The ultimate purpose of the property market regulation is to make house prices return to a reasonable level，But as to what kind of house prices is the reasonable price，Every city has a different standard。So the future，Might some high home prices city，Property prices will return，But there are some city，Perhaps property prices will rise slowly，“Drop below differ”I'm afraid is the future of the housing domestic a feature。But along with industry XiYi and aid policy to xinjiang profits element role，Urumqi overall housing prices，Basic will remain a reasonable level and has slowly rise。

　　可以说，要保持房地产市场的健康发展，最重要的是保证其发展的相对平稳，要避免“大起”，更要避免“大落”。

Can say，To maintain the healthy development of the real estate market，The most important is the guarantee of the development of relatively stable，To avoid“up”，More to avoid“Big fall”。

　　当前，中国经济前5个月间出现了比较明显的下滑。在这种情况下，中央及时提出要把“稳增长”放在首位。而就目前来看，中央下调准备金率、降息以及启动一系列建设项目，并采取了一系列的经济结构调整等措施，都是为了保证这一轮经济的平稳发展，防止中国经济出现“硬着陆”，所谓“硬着陆”就是“大落”。

The current，China's economy in the first five months of the obvious appeared between falling。In this case，The proposal is in time“Steady growth”In the first place。But the situation at the moment，The central reserve fund rate cut、A series of rate cuts and start construction project，And adopted a series of economic structure adjustment measures，To ensure this round of economic steady development，Prevent China economic appear“A hard landing”，The so-called“A hard landing”is“Big fall”。

房价问题不等于住房问题 House prices problem is not equal to the housing

　　记者：这么多年来，房价越调越涨，现在总算出现了比较明显的调控效果，都说最关键的是“双限”（限购限贷）政策，您如何看？

reporter：So for many years，The more YueDiao house prices rise，Now finally appeared more obvious control effect，All said the key is“Double limit”（限购 limit credit）policy，How do you see？

　　顾云昌：在整个房地产市场调控政策中，限购限贷极其重要，它很好地抑制了投资需求，合理释放了刚性需求，成功遏制了房价继续飙升。目前看来，“双限”政策没有任何取消的迹象。现在稳增长的政策微调，特别是信贷政策出现变化，下调存准率和利息，客观上会助推房地产市场的回暖，甚至反弹。那么，这个时候，为了防止房价出现反弹，更要保持限购限贷的核心政策不变。

GuYunChang：In the real estate market adjustment and control policies，限购 limit credit is extremely important，It is good to inhibit the investment demand，Reasonable released rigid demand，Soaring house prices continue to curb the success。Now it looks，“Double limit”No signs of the cancellation policy。Now the firm growth fine-tuning，Especially credit policy appears to change，Put down the accuracy and interest，Objective of the real estate market will boost warmed，Even rebound。so，This time，In order to prevent prices rebounded，More to keep 限购 limit the core of the credit policy unchanged。

　　可以说，国内楼市也积攒了很多问题，现在只是给楼市降温，而非治病。

Can say，The domestic market also saved a lot of problems，Now just to cool the property market，Rather than cure。

　　实际上，房价问题并不是住房问题的全部。现在社会上有个误解，认为解决住房问题要靠把房价调控下来，只要房价降下来了，住房问题就解决了。但房价问题实际上并不等于住房问题，中低收入家庭住房问题的解决，主要靠政府的保障，而房价问题涉及经济运行的健康问题，关系到宏观经济，而住房问题关系到老百姓生活问题。房地产调控既要关注经济问题，又要关注民生问题，而民生问题的解决并不仅仅靠降房价。

In fact，House prices is not a problem of all housing problems。Now in the society have a misunderstanding，Think that resolution of the housing problem to earns a living by driving down prices regulation，As long as home prices down，Housing problem solved。But in fact, house prices is not equal to the housing problem，Low-income family to solve the housing problem，Mainly by the government, the safeguard，And house prices issue involves the economic operation of the health problems，Related to the macro economy，And the housing problem related to common people life issues。Real estate regulation should focus on economic issues，And the attention to the livelihood of the people，And the people's livelihood to the solution of the problem not only the drop of house prices。

刚需购房者或可出手 Just need the person that buy a house or can make moves

　　记者：很多购房人观望了大半年，现在是否出手买房的好时机？

reporter：Many of the person that buy a house see redeemed，Now a good time to buy a house is shot？

　　顾云昌：未来房价怎么走，恐怕一时很难说得清楚，大涨的可能性似乎是比较小了，是不是还会跌，恐怕也不能一概而论。

GuYunChang：How to get the future house prices，A: I'm afraid it's difficult/hard to say，The possibility of rose seems to be relatively small，Whether still will fall，I'm afraid also cannot treat as the same。

　　经过了几年的宏观调控，房价调控已显示出了一定效果，房市已到了“筑底”阶段，对刚需购房者来说，或许到了“该出手时就出手”的时候了。

After years of macroeconomic control，House prices has shown some control effect，Housing market has set up a file in“Build the”stage，Just need the person that buy a house to it，Perhaps the“The moves when it's necessary to make moves”time。

　　我说的刚需，不单是指首次购房者，也包括改善住房者。据我调查，目前购房者中，改善性住房需求已占很大一部分，我认为应该把他们纳入刚需里面来，享受优惠购房政策，因为他们都是买来自住的，而不是炒房。

I say just need to，Not only is to point to the person that buy a house for the first time，Also include the home improvement。To my investigation，At present in the person that buy a house，Improve housing demand has sex occupied very big one part，I think we should put them into just need to come in，Enjoy preferential policies that buy a house，Because they are all buy from live，Not ChaoFang。

　　今后一段时间，我觉得房价暴涨的可能性不大，因为我们紧紧控制了投资、投机需求，房价上涨有两种涨法，一种叫做虚涨，一种叫做实涨。所谓实涨就是随着收入水平的提高、住宅品质的提升，房价涨了，这是相应的，叫实涨。虚涨往往是投机需求炒作，大家收入没涨多少，住宅品质也没提升，房价就呼呼往上走了，而且这种房价上涨主要是超过了收入的增长速度，这就产生了泡沫，实际上是虚涨，我们理论上讲叫资产价格虚涨。大家不要看我们房价涨了就是有问题了，其实房价涨不是坏事，只要你是实涨，收入增长比房价快，这就不应该有问题。

For a time，I think prices soaring is unlikely，Because we firmly control the investment、Speculative demand，Rising house prices have two up method，Called a virtual rise，A firm called up。The so-called real rise is with the improvement of income level、Improving the quality of the house，House prices rose，This is the corresponding，Call real up。Virtual rise is often speculation needs a hype，Everybody how much income have not risen，Residential quality also didn't improve，House prices will go up to shout，And the rising housing prices more than income is mainly the growth，This creates a bubble，In fact is virtual rise，Our theory that asset prices up empty。You don't see us going up house prices is a problem，House prices rose in not a bad thing，As long as you are a real price rises，Income growth faster than house prices，This should not be a problem。

“房车消费时代”还未结束 “Rv consumption age”Is not over

　　记者：在您看来，楼市未来发展趋势如何？

reporter：In your opinion，Property market future trend？

　　顾云昌：根据国内有关部门统计，去年国内居民有9万亿资金用于买房，相当于其他消费的总和，也就是说国人有一半的消费用在买房了。另外一项统计表明，国人家庭资产中，房产比例占了70%。中国的房地产为什么这么火，这背后的根本原因就是：从本世纪开始，中国已进入了“房车时代”。

GuYunChang：According to the relevant domestic departments statistics，Last year 9 trillion funds for domestic residents to buy a house，As other consumption combined，That is people have half of consumption in to buy a house with......。Another statistics show，People in the family assets，Real estate proportion is about 70%。China's real estate why so fire，The fundamental reason behind this is：Since the start，China has entered“Rv era”。

　　简单地说，上世纪末，我们经过了“吃穿时代”，那时主要的居民消费是围绕温饱问题的，现在温饱问题解决了，老百姓主要的消费需求是买房买车，未来，我们可能还会进入“精神、文化消费时代”，这个发展轨迹，世界各国都一样的，都是经历过房地产市场火爆的“房车时代”。根据世界经济发展的规律，“房车时代”大约要持续30年，而中国目前只走了十多年时间，理论上这个时代还有十多年。所以说，目前“房车时代”的大消费周期还未结束，房地产市场并不会就此“熄火”。

Say simply，Last century，We passed through“And age”，When the main consumer is around the food and clothing problems，Now their food and clothing problems to solve，People of the main consumer demand is to buy a house to buy cars，future，We may also enter“spirit、Cultural consumption age”，The development track，All countries in the world，Are experienced real estate market hot“Rv era”。According to the rules of the development of the world economy，“Rv era”About to last for 30 years，China now only covered more than 10 years time，In theory this era and more than ten years。so，At present“Rv era”The big spending cycle is not over，It is not the real estate market“flameout”。

结束语： Last word：

　　近一段时间以来，房地产市场释放出的信号空前杂乱，一定程度上混淆了公众视听，扰乱了市场预期，使人无所适从。这背后有着深层次的利益因素。无论是地方政府、银行还是绝大多数的住房持有人，都希望房价“永远上涨”，楼市永远“繁荣”。如此这般，这个市场只能越来越成为一个只有侥幸而没有理性、只有贪婪而不知恐惧的“黑箱市场”，那必将重创中国经济。

Close for a long time now，The real estate market release signal unprecedented mixed and disorderly，To some extent the public and confused，Disturbed market expectations，Make us bewilder。It has a deep interest factor behind。Both local government、A bank or most of the housing holder，All hope that house prices“Forever rising”，Property market will never“prosperity”。Like this，The market can only more and more become a only lucky and no reason、Only the greed and doesn't know the fear“Black box market”，That will hit China economy。

　　把抑制房地产投机投资性需求作为一项长期政策，防止变相放松购房政策，决策层对此是清醒的。而对于老百姓尤其是刚需一族来说，也需要清楚认识当前楼市，切莫盲目乐观，也勿盲目等待。本报“调控两周年楼市新观察”系列报道就此结束。

The inhibition of the investment real estate speculation needs as a long-term policy，Prevent in disguised form relax purchase policies，This program is clear。And for common people especially just need gens，Also need to know the current market，Never blind optimism，Also don't blind to wait。This newspaper“Two years after new observation property market regulation”A series of reports end there。