新华社上海7月26日专电（魏宗凯、刘灵骅）26日中国工商银行(601398,股吧)上海市分行和上海财经大学联合发布的上海市商品住房价格指数显示，上半年，上海市新建住房价格整体保持在相对低位，月度指数平均为113点，比2011年下半年平均下跌6.10%，比去年上半年平均下跌3.24%，整体走势平稳。预计后市房价依然会延续上半年的平稳态势，短期可能略有回调，下半年或将整体与上半年持平。

Shanghai ZhuanDian July 26（WeiZongKai、LiuLingHua）26, industrial and commercial bank of China(601398,Shares it)Shanghai branch and Shanghai university of finance promulgated jointly by the Shanghai commodity housing price index showed，In the first half，Shanghai new housing prices overall remain relatively low，Average monthly index for 113 points，The second half of the year than 2011 average fell 6.10%，In the first half of last year than the average fell 3.24%，Overall movements smooth。House prices are expected to continue is still stable situation during the first half of the year，Short term may be slightly callback，The second half of the first half as the whole and the or。

　　据“工行-上海财大”住房价格指数监测，上海近半年房价整体延续了去年四季度以来的低位，尽管5、6月指数出现小幅回升，但回升幅度远不及前期积累的降价幅度。地方政府以“限购”为核心频繁收紧楼市调控，而调控政策微调仅以提高首次置业家庭的支付能力为目的，远未达到促进市场全面回暖的程度。

According to“Icbc-Shanghai filthy”Housing price index monitoring，Shanghai house prices overall lasted nearly half a year since the last quarter of last year low，Although 5、June index mild to bounce back，But rebounded range than the accumulation of cut prices。Local government to“限购”As the core frequent tightening property market regulation，And regulation fine-tuning to improve first-time home buyers only of the family's ability to pay for the purpose，Far from reaching the market to promote the degree of overall thaw。

　　由于住房是高度异质性产品，不同时期成交住房的质量差异对住房价格统计有很大影响，高端住房成交量的提高，会整体拉高住房均价。因此，住房均价不能作为判断房价走势的可靠指标。“工行-上海财大”住房价格指数剔除了住房质量差异的影响，避免住房价格“结构假象”，更客观地反映价格走势。

Because housing is highly heterogeneous products，Different period of difference of quality housing clinch a deal price statistics housing has very big effect，High-end housing volume increased，Will push the overall housing average price。so，Housing average house prices can be used as the judge the reliability index of the trend。“Icbc-Shanghai filthy”Housing price index dropped housing quality differences influence，Avoid housing prices“Structure illusion”，More objectively reflect the price trend。

　　该指数报告对下半年房价走势判断认为，一方面，房地产调控政策年内不会大幅度松动，“限购”“保刚需”“稳房价”仍是调控主基调，房价上行缺乏政策层面的支撑条件；另一方面，货币政策转向使得开发企业以价换量动力减弱，降价楼盘数量及降价力度有所减小，楼市成交量回归使得“看跌”的市场预期有所改善，后市房价大幅下跌的可能性减弱。而从市场基本面来看，新建住房存量依旧处于高位，供求局面未根本性改变；开发企业资产负债率居高不下，资金压力依旧庞大，“推盘跑量”在下半年仍将延续。

The index of home prices trends report the second half that judgment，On the one hand，Real estate control policy years will not loose greatly，“限购”“Protect just need to”“On house prices”Is still control advocate fundamental key，The lack of policy level of house prices up supporting conditions；On the other hand，Monetary policy to make development enterprises to change the price of power decrease，Building number and price cut price dynamics reduced，Property market turnover return to make“put”The market is expected to improve，After a sharp drop in the possibility of house prices weakened。And from a market fundamentals and see，New housing stock is still high，Supply and demand situation not fundamental change；Development enterprise asset ratio remains high，Money is still huge pressure，“Push dish is run”In the second half will still continue。

　　上海财经大学不动产研究所副所长姚玲珍认为，下半年，房价大幅上涨或下跌的条件和环境都不存在，未来房价走势依然是政策所导向。在“稳增长”目标下，货币政策适度放松与“保刚需”政策微调，将持续带动刚需、改善性需求入市，而投资性需求仍将被严格控制。预计后市房价依然会延续上半年的平稳态势。

Shanghai university of finance and real estate, deputy director of institute YaoLingZhen think，The second half，Property prices or down the conditions and environment don't exist，The future trend of house prices is still the policy guidance。in“Steady growth”goals，Monetary policy with moderate to relax“Protect just need to”fine-tuning，Will continue to drive just need to、Improve sexual needs market，And investment demand will still be strictly controlled。House prices are expected to continue is still stable situation during the first half of the year。