住房、汽车都限购，扩大消费还有多少潜力？

housing、Cars are all 限购，Expand consumption and how much potential？

　　国家对楼市、车市进行调控完全必要，即便暂时影响消费增速，也具有积极意义。如果房价合理回归，则用于住房以外的其他消费潜力可逐步发挥

Countries about the housing、Half of the necessary control，Even temporarily affect the consumption growth，Also has the positive sense。If house prices reasonable regression，Is used in other than housing consumption potential can gradually play

　　今年6月30日，一则消息引爆了广州车市。广州市交委当日宣布，在未来一年内，广州市中小客车增量配额为12万辆，每月1万辆。据媒体报道，公告当晚，广州赛马场汽车城灯火通明，工作人员争分夺秒通知客户前来买车，并加班加点帮买家办理购车手续。不少消费者半夜赶来买车，刷卡交钱的人更是排起长队。

June 30,，A message detonated the guangzhou market。Guangzhou SEC announced，In the next year，Guangzhou small and medium-sized buses incremental quota for 120000 vehicles，10000 cars a month。According to media reports，Announcement that night，Guangzhou racetrack motor city was brightly lit，The clock staff notice customers to come to buy a car，And work overtime to help deal with formalities of car buyers。Many consumer midnight to buy a car，Credit make money people is wonderment。

　　但喧闹总是暂时的。广州市的限购政策，无疑给当地车市泼了一瓢冷水。汽车销售商和消费者都很清楚，他们将迎来至少一年的“冷冻期”。

But noise is always temporary。Guangzhou 限购 policy，No doubt for the local market spilled all over the gourd ladle cold water。Automobile dealers and consumers are very clear，They will have at least a year“Frozen period”。

　　对汽车限购，广州在全国并非首例。之前，北京、上海等地都出台了相关限购政策。这一措施对改善公共交通、缓解道路拥堵、保护环境等有积极作用，但同时，限购对消费市场的影响也是直接而显著的。2011年，汽车消费增速大幅下降。全年全国汽车市场销量达1850.5万辆，同比仅增长2.45%，为13年来最低。今年上半年，全国汽车销售额增长5.8%，比去年同期放缓1.0个百分点。

Car 限购 to，Guangzhou is not the first in the country。before，Beijing、Shanghai to have issued a related 限购 policy。The measure to improve the public transport、Ease road congestion、Protect environment have positive role，But at the same time，限购 consumer market is the influence of the direct and obvious。2011 years，The automobile consumption growth down dramatically。Annual national car market sales of 18.505 million vehicles，Only 2.45% year-on-year growth，For the past 13 years minimum。In the first half of this year，China auto sales growth of 5.8%，Slowing 1.0% more than the same period last year。

　　楼市也面临着类似问题。一年多来，国家相继出台多项房地产调控政策，对稳定房地产市场发挥了重要作用，房地产价格较快上涨态势得到了明显抑制，但与之相关的商品消费增长势头也受到一定影响。2011年，在商务部监测千家重点零售企业中，家具销售额增长9.9%，建筑及装潢材料销售额增长9.0%，分别比上年回落1.4、0.2个百分点。今年上半年，住类商品销售额增长2.5%，比去年同期放缓7.4个百分点。

Property market also faces similar problems。For more than a year，Countries have issued several real estate control policies，To stabilize the real estate market has played an important role，Real estate prices rise more quickly situation got obvious inhibition，But the related commodity consumption growth also is affected certainly。2011 years，The ministry of commerce, monitoring thousands of key retail enterprise，Furniture sales growth of 9.9%，Construction and decoration materials sales growth of 9.0%，More than the previous year dropped 1.4 respectively、0.2%。In the first half of this year，Live merchandise sales growth of 2.5%，Slowing 7.4% more than the same period last year。

　　消费的“大头”都限制了，还怎么扩大消费？不少人有此疑虑。

consumption“Big head”Limits the，Also how to expand consumption？Many people have the doubts。

　　从数据上看，消费确实出现了增长放缓的势头。今年上半年，全国实现社会消费品零售总额98222亿元，同比增长14.4%，扣除价格因素实际增长11.2%，分别比去年同期放缓2.4和0.4个百分点。

From the data on the，Consumption growth slowed do have a momentum。In the first half of this year，The realization of social total retail sales of consumer goods 9.8222 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 14.4%，Adjusting for inflation grew by 11.2% in real terms，More than the same period last year respectively slowdown in 2.4 and 0.4%。

　　形势不乐观，扩大消费还有没有潜力？

Situation is not optimistic，Expand consumption and no potential？

　　业内人士认为，由于众所周知的原因，国家对楼市、车市等领域进行宏观调控，完全有必要，即便因此暂时影响了消费增速，其积极意义也更为显著。事实上，今后要想扩大消费，必须转换思路，不应该再指望楼市火爆、车市升温。

The personage inside course of study thinks，For reasons known to all，Countries about the housing、Half of the macroscopical adjusting control, etc，Is necessary completely，Even so the consumption growth temporarily influence，Its positive significance and more significant。In fact，We will want to expand consumption，Must convert ideas，Should no longer expect property market hot、Heating up half of the。

　　“近年来，高房价严重制约居民消费成为一个突出问题。”国家信息中心首席经济师范剑平认为，虽然居民在改善住房过程中本身就可以带动消费，但如果购房对消费能力挤占得太多，其他的消费改善就会受到影响。如果房价能够合理回归，并在一个新的平衡点上逐步稳定下来，用于住房以外的其他消费的潜力可以逐步发挥出来。

“In recent years，That high prices severely restricts consumer to become a prominent problem。”The state information center chief economic normal sword-think，Although residents in a home improvement process itself can promoting consumption，But if the purchase of consumption ability occupy too much，Consumption of other improvements will be affected。If house prices can reasonable regression，And in a new balance has been gradually to stabilize，Used for housing other than the potential of the consumption can gradually brought into full play。

　　在我国消费升级趋势非常明显的情况下，扩大消费依然大有潜力可挖。商务部研究院消费经济研究部副主任赵萍认为，随着我国服务业不断发展，制约服务消费增长的供给瓶颈将得到缓解，医疗保健、交通和通信、教育文化娱乐服务等服务消费在居民消费中的占比将逐步上升，并呈现较快增长态势。

In China's consumption trend is very clear upgrade，Expand consumption is still great capacity。The ministry of commerce consumer economy research institute of the ZhaoPing think，Along with the development of China's service industries，Restrict the supply of services spending growth will ease bottleneck，Medical care、Traffic and communication、Education culture entertainment services and other services in the residents' consumption of consumption than will rise gradually，And present a fast growth momentum。

　　赵萍认为，消费者的品牌消费意识将进一步觉醒。高端消费品凭借知名品牌优势，消费总量仍将呈现快速增长态势。

ZhaoPing think，Consumer brand consumer consciousness will further awakening。The high end products with famous brand advantage，Total consumption will still presents the fast growth momentum。

　　传统消费领域，新技术的运用也给经营者带来了更多信心。“1号店”是一家以经营快速消费品为主的电子商务企业。在北京、上海等大城市的地铁站，消费者能够看到类似于灯箱广告的“1号店商品墙”，只要用手机拍摄一件商品所对应的二维码，就相当于下单购物。据“1号店”相关负责人介绍，今年一季度，“掌上1号店”的商品订单数量比去年四季度增加了173%。

The traditional consumer areas，The use of new technologies to operator has brought more confidence。“1 store”Is a fast moving consumer goods business mainly of electronic business enterprise。In Beijing、In big cities such as Shanghai subway station，Consumers can see similar to light box ads“1 shop goods wall”，As long as cell phone video with a commodity of the corresponding planar bar code，Is equivalent to order shopping。According to“1 store”Relevant controller introduces，In the first quarter of this year，“Palm 1 store”The quantity of the goods than last year, a 173% increase in the fourth quarter。

　　更重要的是，从收入分配角度来看，随着我国工业化逐步成熟，投资率逐步稳定，消费率也将逐步稳定。范剑平说，“十二五”规划提出，要争取让城乡居民收入的增长与经济增长同步增长，如果能实现预期目标，将会在很大程度上刺激居民的消费潜力。

More important is，From the view of the income distribution，Along with our country industrialization gradually matured，Investment rate gradually stability，Consuming rate will also gradually stability。FanJianPing said，“1025”Plans to put forward，To get the income of urban and rural residents growth and economic growth synchronous growth，If can achieve the desired goals，Will be in large part to stimulate the consumption potential。

　　家政、旅游大发展，服务消费如何上新台阶？

Home economics、Big tourism development，Service consumption on how new steps？

　　服务消费潜力巨大，但要想取得类似于住房、汽车的支柱性消费地位，还必须大力培育、做精做细

Service consumption has great potential，But to get similar to housing、Car's backbone consumption status，Must also greatly cultivate、Do fine makes the fine

　　今年以来，大城市月嫂工资不断上涨的消息引起社会关注，北京、上海等地甚至出现月嫂月薪高达10000元的情况，令人咋舌。虽然这只是个例，在大城市工作的月嫂月收入超过5000元的十分普遍。北京的赵阿姨做月嫂这行已经6年了。“前几天跟同行朋友聚会，发现好几个人的报价都超过6000元，我现在5500元的工资已经不算高了。”赵阿姨说，今年她的活早就排满了，要预约就得明年了。

Since this year，Big cities rising wages on Beijing news cause social concern，Beijing、Shanghai to appear even as high as 10000 yuan a month on Beijing，Whose startling originality。Although this is just alone，In the large cities on the Beijing month income more than 5000 yuan are common。Beijing's zhao jingyi do this line on Beijing has six years。“A few days ago with colleague friend party，Found several men offer is more than 6000 yuan，I am now 5500 yuan of wages have not high。”Zhao aunt said，This year she's live would have filled，To make an appointment for next year will have to......。

　　月嫂工资之所以能直追白领，与市场需求有很大关系。近年来，随着工作、生活节奏的加快，城市居民对家政服务的消费需求日益增多。尤其许多“80后”当上父母，对月嫂特别是有经验的月嫂需求明显增加，工资自然水涨船高。

Beijing is able to straight month salary after white-collar workers，And the market demand has the very big relations。In recent years，Along with the work、Life rhythm speeding up，City residents of domestic service of consumption demand is increasing。Especially many“After 80”When the parents，Especially with the experience of Beijing on the Beijing on demand increased significantly，Wage natural rising。

　　随着人们生活水平的提高，家庭教育、家务管理、家庭理财等新兴服务进入家政服务范畴，月子护理、搬家、保洁等服务的专业性越来越强。服务对象也不断拓宽，涵盖从新生儿、幼儿、少年、成年人，到单亲家庭、老人和残障人士等不同年龄阶段、不同收入水平的居民群体。目前，全国家政服务业拥有各类服务企业和网点超过50万家，从业人员1500多万人，年营业额保持着年均近20%左右的增速。

With the improvement of people's living standard，Family education、Household management、Family financial management service into emerging domestic service category，Confined nursing、move、Cleaning and the professionalism of the service is more and more strong。The service object is also constantly widened，Covers from newborn、children、young、adults，To single parent families、The old man and people with disabilities and so on the different age stages、Different income levels of residents groups。At present，The national home service with various service enterprise and network of more than 50，Employees more than 1500 people，Annual turnover kept with an average annual growth rate of almost 20% or so。

　　尽管如此，家政业仍有一些亟待解决的问题。北京市民李女士今年3月喜得龙子，家里请了一个月嫂照顾她，月薪高达8000元。本以为能更省心，但李女士并不满意。“我想做些产后恢复训练，请月嫂指导，可她自己也不懂；擦洗身体等月嫂教程上的项目，她也从来没给我做过。”李女士说，这和自己的期望差距有点大。

Even so，Domestic industry still has some problems to solve problems。Beijing residents ms. Li march this year LongZi joy，Home please a month to care for her sister-in-law，As high as 8000 yuan a month。The thought that can save worry more，But ms. Li are not satisfied。“I want to do some postpartum return to training，Please provides guidance on，But she is also don't understand；Body scrub on such as Beijing items on the tutorial，She has never gave me。”Ms. Li said，This and their expected a gap。

　　整体来看，家政行业的服务水平同百姓的期望确实有差距，组织化程度不高、从业人员素质不高、市场管理不规范等问题长期存在。家庭服务市场供需信息也不够对称，居民有需求，找不到服务；企业有服务，找不到市场。

The whole，The service level of the domestic industry with the expectations of the people is indeed a gap，Organizational level is not high、Employees quality is not high、The market management of problems exist for a long time。Family services market supply and demand information also not enough symmetry，Residents have a demand，Can't find service；Enterprise have service，Can't find the market。

　　发展服务消费，旅游业同样备受关注。据中国旅游研究院预计，2012年上半年，旅游接待总人数有望突破16亿人次，同比增长13%；旅游总收入1.28万亿元，同比增长17%。但是，旅游业还存在着一些制约因素，影响人们出游的热情。这其中，以大幅降低报名价格、依赖诱导或强制游客购物为手段的“零负团费”操作模式最受诟病。很多人被“零团费”吸引去，但业内人士表示，任何打着“零团费”或“负团费”幌子招揽游客的旅行社，最后必然会想尽办法从游客身上把钱赚回来，比较常见的就是“强迫购物”。这类行为影响了整个行业的信誉和秩序，实际上制约了旅游消费的扩展。

Development service consumption，Tourism also cause for concern。According to China's tourism is expected to institute，In the first half of 2012，The total number of tourism is expected to break through the 1.6 billion passengers，Year-on-year growth of 13%；The total tourist income reached 1.28 trillion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 17%。but，Tourism also exists some restricting factors，Influence people travel enthusiasm。This one，With considerably reduce the price、Rely on induction or forced visitors the means of shopping“Zero negative fue”The operation mode for the most popular。Many people were“Zero cost”Drawn to，But people in the industry say，Any under“Zero cost”or“Bear the cost”Cover the travel agencies attract visitors，The last will try their best to earn the money from the visitors back on，The more common is“Forced shopping”。This kind of behavior affect the industry's reputation and order，In fact restricted the tourism consumption's expansion。

　　家政、旅游业只是服务消费的一个代表领域。“长期以来，我们一直把扩大需求、促进消费的重点放在商品消费上，其实服务消费可挖掘的潜力更大。”赵萍说，据测算，2009年中国社会消费品零售总额相当于全国服务消费规模的3.9倍，2010年为5.28倍。她认为，今后应当把促进消费的重点尽快从商品扩大到服务业，稳步提高家政、教育、信息等服务消费的比重，为我国未来消费市场扩容和经济增长提供强大动力。

Home economics、Tourism service consumption is a representative of the field。“long，We have been to expand demand、Promote consumption focus on commodity consumption，In fact service consumption can be dug potential more。”ZhaoPing said，According to estimates，In 2009 China's total retail sales equal to the national service consumption 3.9 times of the scale，2010 to 5.28 times。She thought，In the future the key to stimulate consumption should be the goods as soon as possible to the services sector expanded from，Improved steadily home economics、education、Information such as service the proportion of consumption，For China's future economic growth and consumption market expands to provide a powerful driving force。

　　服务消费潜力巨大，但是要想取得类似于前些年住房、汽车等支柱性消费地位，还必须大力培育，提供丰富多样的服务产品吸引消费者，必须做精做细，让市场更加规范、让服务更加专业化。比如，对家政服务业，应加强职业培训，提升从业人员素质，并鼓励各种资本投资创办家庭服务企业，鼓励公益性的家政信息服务平台建设。对旅游业，应强化监督，规范市场秩序。国家旅游局监督管理司负责人透露，目前国家旅游局正在全面实施《旅行社条例》，要求各级旅游行政管理部门及时查处强迫或变相强迫游客购物、参加自费项目等违反法规、损害游客权益的行为。

Service consumption has great potential，But to make similar to housing in previous years、Automobile backbone consumption status，Must also greatly cultivate，Provide rich variety of service products attract consumers，Must do fine makes the fine，Let the market more regulations、Make services more professional。For example，For home service，Should strengthen vocational training，Ascension of working staff，And encourage all kinds of capital investment founded family service enterprise，Encourage the public welfare home economics information service platform construction。Of the tourism industry，Should strengthen the supervision and，Standardize market order。The national tourism administration supervision and management department director said，At present is the full implementation of the national tourism administration《Travel agency regulations》，Asks various tourism administration department and forced or in a disguised manner compel in time visitors shopping、In violation of laws and regulations such as the project at one's own expenses、Damage of the rights of visitors behavior。

　　增收、减负出实招，扩大消费更需夯实底气

'income、Enquiring ShiZhao out，Expanding the consumer need more to solidify the bottom spirit

　　老百姓收入跑得不够快，让他们不敢痛快花钱。当前应着力实现初次收入分配改革的实质性突破，增收减税，特别是减少消费过程中百姓所承担的隐形税、价内税

Income people run fast enough，Let them not time spend money。The current should strive to achieve first income distribution of substantive reform breakthrough，'income tax cuts，Especially reduce consumption in the process of taking people invisible tax、Inside valence tax

　　近几年，国家先后出台了一系列刺激消费的政策，包括家电、汽车下乡和以旧换新，小排量汽车购置税优惠等，这在一定程度上刺激了城乡居民的消费潜力，对拉动消费起到了积极作用。面对当前消费增速下滑的态势，今后是否还需要类似的刺激政策？

In recent years，State has issued a series of stimulating consumption policy，Including home appliance、Cars with old change to the country and new，Small cars purchases duty discount, etc，This, to a certain extent, to stimulate the consumption of urban and rural residents and the potential，Stimulating consumption which has played a positive role。Facing the current consumption growth declining trend，Whether to have similar future stimulus？

　　范剑平认为，虽然消费增速出现下滑，但整体上基本保持稳定，没有必要大幅调整短期需求管理政策，来刺激消费需求。“有人说，房地产、汽车不能搞了，刺激一下家电和旅游，是不是对稳增长有好处？我觉得这样急功近利的政策不对，可能会打乱居民消费的节奏，透支未来的增长潜力，副作用很大。”范剑平说。

FanJianPing think，Although consumption growth declined，But, on the whole, basic remain stable，There is no need to dramatic changes to short-term demand management policy，To stimulate consumption demand。“Some say，Real estate、Cars can't make，Stimulate the home appliance and tourism，If it's steady growth is good？I feel so quick policy right，May upset the consumption of the residents rhythm，Overdraw the growth potential of the future，Much side effect。”FanJianPing said。

　　“要想让我们花钱消费，也得有钱才能花呀！”聊起扩大消费的话题，不少普通百姓不仅没什么热情，甚至会有些反感，这主要是因为收入没有实现相应的增长。统计数据已显示，开局之年，“十二五”规划提出的“两个同步”未能很好地实现。老百姓的收入跑得不够快，让他们无力扩大消费、不敢痛快花钱。

“Want to let us spend，Have to be rich to a flower！”Talk about expanding consumer topic，Many ordinary people not only no enthusiasm，Even some disgust，This is mainly because income not achieve growth。Statistics have shown，Beginning of，“1025”Plans to put forward the“Two synchronous”Good can't be realized。The income of the people running fast enough，Let them unable to expand consumption、Can't spend time。

　　“扩大消费的基础是增加收入”。赵萍说，今年应重点关注收入增长与扩大消费之间的关系。收入分配制度改革不能仍停留在规划和设想阶段，要寻找收入分配改革的切入点，实现初次收入分配改革的实质性突破。此外，还要继续采取综合措施，保持物价总水平基本稳定，防止价格走势出现反弹，促进居民真实收入水平的稳定增长，为消费增长奠定坚实的物质基础。

“Expand consumption is the basis of increasing income”。ZhaoPing said，This year should focus on income growth and expanding consumer relationship。The income distribution system reform can't still stay in planning and ideas on stage，Looking for the reform of the income distribution point，The first time the reform of income distribution realize substantial breakthrough。In addition，To continue to take comprehensive measures，Keep the general level of commodity prices steady basic，To prevent the movements of prices rebounded，Promote residents the stable growth of real incomes，Consumption growth for a solid material base。

　　减税也是一个值得关注的问题。当前，我国居民的实际税负并不只是个人所得税，而更多体现在消费过程中所承担的隐形税、价内税。有些人觉得月饼税、馒头税很稀奇，但实际上国内任何一个商品里都含税，只不过没有把价内税单列出来而已。

Tax cuts is also a concern。The current，The actual tax burden of the residents of our country is not only the individual income tax，And more reflected in consumption in the process for the stealth taxes、Inside valence tax。Some people think of moon cakes tax、Steamed bread tax amazement，But in fact the domestic any a commodity in tax，The price just not in tax singled out just。

　　范剑平认为，今后我国要加大力度进一步完善结构性减税政策。从长远发展方向来讲，国家应该逐步降低间接税的比重，增加直接税的比重，让百姓明白消费。居民间接税的主要税负之一就是消费税，这一领域的改革很重要。过去对百姓而言可能是高档的消费，比如护肤品等等，现在已经变成日用品，消费税的改革也应与时俱进，对符合绿色消费、健康消费、又是百姓日常消费的商品，都应该取消消费税，同时加大对高能耗、奢侈性消费的税率，使税收真正能对扩大消费、节能减排起到调节作用。

FanJianPing think，The future of China's efforts to further perfect the structural tax cuts。Will tell from long-term development direction，Countries should gradually reduce the proportion of indirect taxation，Increase the proportion of direct taxation，Let the people to understand the consumer。Residents of the tax burden is one of main indirect taxation consumption tax，This field of reform is very important。In the past people to character may be high-grade consumption，Such as skin care products and so on，Has now become a commodity，The consumption tax reform should also keep pace with The Times，To comply with the green consumption、Healthy consumption、Daily consumption of goods and people，Should cancel the consumption tax，At the same time to rein in the increase、Luxury consumption tax rate of sex，Can really make the tax to expand consumption、Energy conservation and emission reduction in a regulatory role。

　　增值税也应该改革。当前我国增值税有一个特点，即名义税率很高，但存在五花八门的优惠政策。但实际上，只有大企业、外资企业才有办法获得优惠，真正承受高额税负的往往是中小企业。范剑平建议，今后应降低增值税的名义税率，同时取消优惠税率，这对中小企业减税的作用更大，从而激活中小企业的发展，提高给工人涨工资的能力，对扩大消费有很大的积极作用。

Value added tax should also reform。The current our country increment duty with a feature，Nominal tax rate is very high，But there are a wide variety of preferential policies。But in fact，Only the big enterprise、The foreign capital enterprise was able to get preferential，Under the high tax burden real often is the medium and small enterprises。FanJianPing Suggestions，We should reduce the name of value added tax rates，And cancel the preferential tax rate，This tax cuts to small and medium enterprises more influence，And thus activate the medium and small sized enterprises，Improve the ability of wages for workers，To expand consumption has a lot of positive role。

　　此外，消费过程中，人身权和财产权不受到损害是消费者在消费中首要的、最基本的权利。2012年伊始，就先后爆出黄曲霉素牛奶、注胶虾、安信木地板甲醛超标等问题，消费安全问题仍受到更多媒体和消费者关注。赵萍认为，今后，消费安全将成为消费者最关注的基本问题。预防和减少安全隐患，保障消费品的质量安全，保障消费场所安全，将会受到消费者前所未有的重视。

In addition，Consumption process，Person and property rights would not be damaged is the most important of the consumer、The most basic rights。Since 2012，In early aflatoxin milk、The glue shrimp、Anxi wood floor formaldehyde exceeds bid，Consumer safety problems are still subject to more multimedia and consumer attention。ZhaoPing think，In the future，Consumer safety will be the most concern the basic problems of the consumers。To prevent and reduce the security hidden danger，Ensure the quality and safety of consumer goods，Safeguard consumer place security，Will by consumer unprecedented attention。