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温州炒房团重出江湖折射中国经济转型困局--亲稳舆论引导监测室
2012-08-21
据媒体报道,伴随着新地王的频频出现,沉寂一时温州炒房团又重出江湖,瞄准“降价”楼盘大肆投资。
According to media reports,With the new left appeared frequently,A silence wenzhou form a group and back on the streets,aiming“reduction”Building a investment。
造成这一问题的原因有两个:
This is the result of the problem for two reasons:
一是实体经济不景气,大量资本找不到更有价值的投资渠道,而温州资本对于炒房获利却是轻车熟路。
One is the entity economic downturn,A large number of capital can't find more valuable investment channels,Wenzhou capital form for profit is ms。
二是对于通货膨胀的预期,推动人们储房套利的行为。尽管对于目前房价过高这一问题差不多等于形成了全民共识,但如果物价持续走高,而房价在政府的强力控制下处于静止状态,那么未来的相对房价就不会像现在人们感觉的那么高。因此,在政府平抑房价而未能控制物价的背景下,炒房实在是资本的一种务实选择。
The second is for inflation expectations,Pushing people storage room arbitrage behavior。Although the current price is too high for this problem almost equal to form the national consensus,But if prices continue to high,And house prices in the government's strong control in a stationary state,So the future of relative prices won't like people now feel so high。therefore,In government stabilize prices and failed to control under the background of price,It is the capital form a practical choice。
这两个原因都在指向一个关节点——政府所强力推动的经济转型来得并没有预期的那么快、那么容易。
The two reasons are pointing to an articulation point - the government to promote strong economic transformation come and didn't expect so fast、So easy。
新能源在2010年被确定为政府扶持的七大战略性新兴产业之列。但仅仅两年的时间,新能源产业中具有代表性的光伏产业就已经出现了严重的产能过剩和行业危机。
New energy in 2010 was identified as the government to support the seven major strategic emerging industry list。But only two years,In the new energy industry, which is representative of the photovoltaic industry will have appeared the serious excess capacity and industry crisis。
美国投资机构MaximGroup的最新统计数据显示,中国最大的10家光伏企业的债务累计已高达175亿美元,约合1110亿元人民币,国内整个光伏产业已接近破产边缘。其中,国内光伏产业龙头企业无锡尚德于近日被曝出巨亏,其财报显示,尚德电力今年第一季度毛利率仅为0.6%,而总债务却达到35.8亿美元。另一家知名光伏企业江西赛维日前发布的财报也显示了同样的困境:公司上半年净利润亏损10.8亿元人民币,负债总额已高达266.76 亿元。
The United States MaximGroup investment institutions of the latest statistical data display,China's largest 10 photovoltaic enterprise debt accumulated has as much as $17.5 billion,About 111 billion yuan RMB,Domestic whole photovoltaic industry already close to the edge of bankruptcy。the,The domestic photovoltaic industry leading enterprises in wuxi suntech has been to expose huge deficit,The results show,Suntech power in the first quarter of this year gross profit rate is only 0.6%,And the total debt is $3.58 billion。Another famous photovoltaic enterprise LDK to released the results also show that the same dilemma:In the first half of the company net profit loss 1.08 billion yuan RMB,Total liabilities has been as high as 26.676 billion yuan。
严重的产能过剩是造成光伏产业目前困局的直接原因,到2011年,国内已经量产及在建的光伏企业产能已达到了500亿瓦特,而同期的全球光伏总安装量只有270亿瓦特。由于政府的支持甚至是主导,近两年全国爆发式地出现了大批的光伏企业。2010年仅温州新增光伏企业就达到了30家。
Serious excess capacity is a photovoltaic industry is currently the direct reason for this,By 2011,Domestic production and has been in the photovoltaic enterprise production capacity has reached 50 billion watt,Over the same period, the global pv total installation quantity only 27 billion watt。Because of government support even leading,Nearly two years national explosive appeared on the large number of photovoltaic enterprise。In 2010, wenzhou only new photovoltaic enterprise to reach 30。
光伏产业发展的教训再一次告诫我们,在新兴产业发展的过程中,要多用市场的力量,少用政府的力量。一个典型的例子就是互联网企业的发展,在这个过程中,就很少有政府力量的直接参与和支持,但并没有妨碍中国出现了搜狐、百度、腾讯以及阿里巴巴这样的世界级互联网企业。
Pv industry development lesson once again warned us,In emerging in the process of industrial development,To use the power of the market,Less government power。A typical example is the Internet development of enterprise,In this process,It is seldom have a government power direct participation and support,But did not hinder China appeared sohu、baidu、Tencent and alibaba such world-class Internet enterprise。
转变经济发展方式绝不仅是产业转移以及寻找替代产业那么简单,更要求人们发展观念以及发展模式的深层次变革。与实现转变经济发展方式的客观要求相对比,中国无论是在理念、资源和人才上都还没有充分的准备。
Transformation of the mode of economic development not only is the industrial transfer and look for alternative industry so simple,More asked people development concept and development model of deep change。Transformation of the mode of economic development and realizing the objective requirement of the relative ratio,China both in concept、Resources and talents are still not fully prepared。
就像一辆汽车要在调整行驶中转变会有巨大的风险一样,中国经济要在持续多年两位数的增长中实现转轨,也同样会有着巨大的困难。这其中最大的困难显然是来自理念和行为方面的惯性。这种惯性最直接的表现就体现在:经济增长一遇到困难就希望政府伸手“调控”;一发展新兴行业就希望政府政策和资金支持。
Like a car to drive in the adjustment of the conversion will have huge risks,China's economy for years to double-digit growth in realize transition,Also will have great difficulty。The one of the biggest difficulties is obviously from concept and behavior of inertia。This kind of inertia is the most direct performance is reflected in:Economic growth a difficulty is hope the government hand“regulation”;The development of a new industry will hope the government policy and financial support。
中国经济近30年的高速成长,一个最坏的负效应就是养成了一批喜欢靠“炒房”获利的所谓“企业家”。直至目前,还有许多企业幻想政府能够出台新的经济刺激政策,让中国的经济发展速度重新回到10%以上。但现实是,除非像2008年那样大规模增发货币以外,中国经济基本没有可能再回到2位数的增长时代。首先是中国的资源和环境已经不能支撑这种竭泽而渔式的增长方式,同时,中国已经成长为GDP总量超过7万亿美元的全球第二大经济体,巨大的基数必然导致成长的相对数减少。
China's economic nearly 30 years of high-speed growth,One of the most bad negative effect is to form a group of like to depend on“form”Profit of so-called“entrepreneurs”。Until now,There are many enterprise fantasy government can introduce new economic stimulus policies,Let China's economic development speed back to more than 10%。But the reality is,Unless in 2008 as large-scale shares outside currency,China's economic basic not impossible to return to again double-digit increases times。The first is China's resources and environment have already can't support this kind of type growth mode the goose that lays the golden eggs,At the same time,China has for GDP growth more than $7 trillion in the world's second largest economy,Huge base will inevitably lead to growing relative quantity reduce。
未来日子里,中国企业家必须适应中国经济在7%上下,甚至是更低的速度中成长,必须适应在困境中赚钱和发展。华为、海尔和联想应当是中国企业和企业家的标杆,他们要么去国际市场赚“困难的钱”,要么通过自主研发去赚“困难的钱”,正因为他们已经习惯于在困境中生存和发展,所以,当更大面积的经济困难到来的时候,恰恰是他们的机遇。
In the coming days,Chinese entrepreneurs must adapt to China's economy in the up and down 7%,Even more low speed in the growth,Must adapt to in distress make money and development。huawei、Haier and association should be Chinese enterprises and entrepreneurs of the pole,They can either go to the international market to make“Difficult money”,Either through independent research and development to make“Difficult money”,Because they have become more accustomed to the survival and development in the soup,so,When more large areas of economic difficulty comes,Just is their opportunities。
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