中国旅游研究院：2012年国庆黄金周旅游市场趋势、问题与对策建议

China's tourism research institute:2012 National Day golden week travel market trend/Problems and countermeasures

　　2012年中秋十一两个假期从9月30日开始至10月7日结束，从而形成8天的长假期。今年国庆黄金周有利因素多、市场增长快、管理难度大。我们预计国庆黄金周旅游市场仍将有较高的增长，

Mid-Autumn festival 2012 11 two vacation from September 30 began to October 7, end,8 days so as to form a long holiday.This year National Day golden week more favorable factors/Market growth fast/Management is difficult.We expect the National Day golden week travel market will still have higher growth,接待人次约为3.62亿，较去年同比增长20%，旅游收入约为1800亿元人民币，比上年同期增长24% Receive about 362 million people,A year-on-year growth of 20% last year,Tourism income is about 180 billion yuan,Than the same period last year growth of 24%。

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　　1、旅游市场：国内游平稳增长，出境游大幅上扬，入境游稳中有降 1/Tourism market:Domestic tourism steady growth,Outbound tourism rose sharply,Inbound stability have fall

　　受以下四个方面因素的影响，黄金周期间的国内游市场仍将平稳增长。首先，今年一二季度以来，我国居民可支配收入较去年同期均有近10%的增长，CPI连续下降，居民实际收入有所提高，这些因素在一定程度上激发了居民的旅游需求。其次，在区域旅游竞争与合作并存的大背景下，主要旅游目的地为黄金周准备了丰富多彩的项目和产品，并通过多样化的宣传推广活动提前预热了国内消费市场。第三，大部分地区的春夏两季酷暑和洪涝自然灾害不断，暑期旅游需求受阻，很可能在中秋与国庆两假连放的八天长假得以集中释放。第四，国务院8月2日下发重大节假日免收小型客车通行费实施方案的通知。此项政策会让自驾游车旅费节省近一半，因而对自驾游有较大的促进作用。据中国旅游研究院的中国居民出游意愿调查显示：

From the following four aspects: the influence of the factors,During the golden week of domestic tourism market will still steady growth.First of all,Second quarter this year since,Our country residents' disposable income than the same period last year are nearly 10% of growth,CPI continuous decline,Actual income residents improved,These factors in a certain extent, inspired the residents' travel demand.secondly,In the regional tourism competition and cooperation of both background,The main tourist destination for the golden week prepared rich and colorful projects and products,And through the diversity of promotional activities in advance the preheat domestic consumption market.The third,Most regions of the spring and summer and scorching heat and flood natural disasters constantly,Summer travel demand hindered,Probably in the Mid-Autumn festival and National Day two false even put eight seven-day holiday to centralized release.The fourth,Issued by the state council on August 2, major holidays will be exempted from the mini-bus tolls implementation plan of the notice.This policy will make travel leading to save nearly half,Thus leading to a greater role in promoting.According to China's tourism research institute of Chinese residents will travel survey:今年十一黄金周期间有出游意愿的高达87.9%，远高于去年同期的58.3%。其中有自驾车出游意愿的占有出游意愿总体的29.5%。这些群体中有50.3%的受访者表示免收通行费政策是其选择自驾游的直接因素。 Eleven golden week this year during the will of travel as much as 87.9%,Far higher than the same period last year 58.3%.One went for a drive from the possession of the willingness to travel intend to 29.5% of the total.These groups have 50.3% of the respondents said toll-free policy is the choice of leading direct factors.

　　出境游市场将出现人次和花费的双高增长。据部分旅游企业反馈的信息，

Outbound tourism market will appear people and cost tends to increase.According to part of the tourism enterprise feedback information,今年出境游人次较去年同期约有30-40%的增长。 Outbound tourism people this year compared with the same period last year about 30-40% of the growth.较长的黄金周假期，以及当前出现的“拼假族”（把公众假期与职工年假、探亲假等连起来使用）使假期更长，使得长线游如前往北美、澳新的旅游需求高速增长。东南亚常规线路仍是热点。日本市场的预订在近期有所下降。赴台游组团社和自由行城市的新一轮增加、外来人员异地办照等利好政策对出境游市场有积极的推动作用。与此同时，境外旅游目的地不断加大对中国游客的促销力度，签证、免税、支付、中文接待环境等便利措施的出台，欧元、英镑的贬值、后奥运旅游等因素也将进一步拉动中国公民的出境旅游需求。

Long golden week holiday,And the current appear"Spell false family"(The public holiday and worker annual leave/Visit one's family false and even up to use)Make a longer holiday,Make long term swim as to the north American/Australia's travel demand growth.Southeast Asia conventional line is still hot.The Japanese market in the near future reservation decline.To the table to swim ZuTuanShe and freedom ride city of a new round of increase/The external personnel, such as different do as good policy on outbound tourism market have a positive role.meanwhile,Overseas tourist destination for Chinese tourists increasing promotional efforts,visa/duty-free/pay/Chinese reception environment convenient measures come on stage,euro/Pounds the depreciation of the/After the Olympic tourism, and other factors will further boost China's citizens outbound travel demand.

　　受近年来入境旅游大趋势的影响，加上对国内旅游市场集中而带来的成本上升、服务品质下降的担心，游客会选择避免在此期间到中国来旅游。从预订信息来看，黄金周期间的入境旅游市场也是稳中趋降的。综合各种因素分析，预计今年国庆黄金周旅游人数和收入增长均会超过20%，且均比2008年翻一番多。

In recent years by the influence of the entry tourism trend,In addition to domestic tourism market concentration and bring up the cost/Service quality decline of worry,Visitors will choose to avoid during this period to China tourism.Information from the book to see,During the golden week of the inbound tourism market is steady to drop.Comprehensive analysis of various factors,Expected this year National Day golden week tourists and income growth all can be more than 20%,And they are all more than 2008 more than double.

　　2、旅游产品：都市游、乡村游、民俗游、赏秋游与自驾游并存，本地休闲项目与传统旅游产品趋于融合，消费更趋于理性。

2/Tourism products:City tour/Rural tourism/Folk custom Tours/Admire the autumn and leading coexist,Local leisure projects and the traditional tourism products tend to fusion,Consumption tend to be more rational.

　　今年传统旅游城市如北京、上海、丽江等热度不减，但也有不少新的旅游热点地区出现。如东北地区的沈阳、长春、长白山、哈尔滨一线正值金秋时节，成为北京及周边地区居民出游的热点。

This year the traditional tourist cities such as Beijing/Shanghai/Lijiang and heat immortalization,But there are also many new tourist hotspots appear.Such as the northeast area of shenyang/changchun/Changbai mountain/Harbin a line when autumn season,As the Beijing and the surrounding area residents travel hot spot.自驾游可能会出现以北京、沪杭、成都、西安、广州、深圳等大中型城市为中心，半径800-1000公里的城市群旅游热点区。 Leading may appear to Beijing/shanghai-hangzhou/chengdu/xian/guangzhou/Shenzhen and other large and medium-sized city as the center,Radius 800-1000 kilometers of the urban agglomeration tourism hot area.国内游热点城市的旅游价格涨幅在20-30%左右。

Domestic tourism hotspot cities tourist price rise in 20-30%.

　　出境游方面，就目前的预订情况来看，

Outbound tourism in,The reservation situation,日、韩、美加、澳新、海岛仍是出境游的热点。但随着钓鱼岛事件的发展，民族情绪可能会被进一步激发，不排除大量游客取消日本游的可能。 day/Korea/Beauty and/Australia/Island is still the focus of outbound tourism.But as the diaoyu islands events,National emotions may be further excitation,Don't eliminate a large number of tourists may cancel the Japanese tour.

　　旅游者比以往更加理性，不再单独追求低价，对出境游更加注重品质。品质游、深度游、主题游更受青睐。出境游价格在黄金周期间上涨10%左右。

Tourists more rational than ever before,No longer alone the pursuit of low price,For outbound tourism pay more attention to quality.Quality swim/Depth vernier/Theme travel more accept favour.Outbound tourism prices in the increase of about 10% in the golden week period.

　　3、可能出现的问题与应对建议

3/Possible problems and measures

　　黄金周期间的集中出游导致热点区域的景区容量过载、价格上涨、服务质量下降等问题，仍然会是投诉热点。管理方面的难点主要是交通游览安全、自驾车管理和公共服务。从近期各地的信息来看，游客与强迫购物、自费项目与导游的冲突在加剧，国庆节期间可能会集中爆发，并存在演化成群体事件的可能性。自驾游的增长所带来的堵车、自驾车营地和补给的不足可能是各大旅游景区所面临的新的问题。在目的地接待体系方面，交通和住宿设施仍然紧缺，服务设施和服务人员超负荷运转，使得服务质量依然面临挑战。国际方面，钓鱼岛事件的影响可能会持续发酵，已报名游客临时取消日本游的可能性不可忽略。

During the golden week travel the concentration of lead to hot area of the scenic area capacity overload/prices/Service quality problems such as falling,Would still be complaint hotspots.The difficulty of management is mainly visit traffic safety/Since the driving management and public service.From all over the recent information to see,Tourists and forced shopping/At one's own expense project and guide of conflict in the aggravate,During the National Day may focus outbreak,And there exists the possibility of evolution into group events.Leading growth brought about by the traffic jam/Since the driving camps and supply shortage could be each big tourism scenic area faces new problems.At the destination host system,Transportation and accommodation facilities are still in short supply,Service facilities and service personnel overload running,Make the service quality is still faces a challenge.international,The effects of the event diaoyu island may continue for fermentation,Already the tourists cancel the possibility of Japan swam should not be neglected.

　　应对建议：除常规的假日旅游部际协调会议所强调的安全、质量和稳定等方面的要求外，今年各地旅游管理部门需要协同交通和公安部门做好自驾车旅游的管理和配套服务。做好线路路况信息系统的及时通报，热点地区的交通疏导，道路紧急援助，以及自驾车营地的补给等预案。各地特别是热点旅游城市的人民政府要做好导游与游客冲突演化的群体性事件的预案准备和演习工作，同时要提醒各地结合游客满意度提升做好涉旅网络舆情的监控与应对。

measures:In addition to conventional holiday tourism BuJi coordination meeting emphasize safety/The quality and stability of the requirements,Around this year tourism management department needs coordinated traffic and public security departments to self-driving tourist management and supporting services.Completes the circuit traffic information system timely reporting,Hotspots traffic channel,Road emergency aid,And since the drive camp supply and plan.All especially hot tourism city people's government to do guide and tourists conflict evolution of group incidents plan preparation and exercise work,At the same time to remind visitors all combined with satisfaction to ascend in a network public opinion surveillance and deal with.

　　进一步建立完善针对散客的服务体系，如提醒散客提前安排行程、解决散客景区购票难、排队时间长、休息区少、景区卫生状况下降、旅游公共交通少等多项旅游者满意度最低的问题。强化公共信息服务，加强对市场客流信息的收集、预测和发布，及时发布交通、住宿、游览、气象、卫生等出行信息。

Further establish and improve the service system for individual traveler,Such as remind individual travel arrangement in advance/To solve the difficult individual tourist tickets/Queue time long/Rest area less/The sanitary condition down/Tourism public transportation less and so on many tourists the lowest satisfaction problem.Strengthening public information service,Strengthen the passenger market information collection/Prediction and release,Timely release the traffic/accommodation/visit/meteorological/Health and other travel information.

　　出境游方面，要高度关注钓鱼岛事件可能引发的旅游合同违约事件以及中国赴日游客的安全问题。加强中国公民的海外领事保护。

Outbound tourism in,Attention to the incident may trigger diaoyu island tourist contract event of default and Chinese visitors to Japan to the security problems.To strengthen the Chinese citizens' overseas consular protection.