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购房成本再降 房地产市场回暖势头难挡 房价再跌可能性接近于零--亲民维稳网络舆情监测室
2012-07-21

购房成本再降 房地产市场回暖势头难挡  房价再跌可能性接近于零

  央行一个月内的再次降息,无疑使个人购房贷款成本进一步降低。今天上午,北京市公积金管理中心也表示,个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应下调,五年以上贷款利率从4.7%降为4.5%。

A month the central bank cut interest rates again,Is sure to make personal purchase loans to further reduce the cost。This morning,Beijing accumulation fund management center also said,Personal housing accumulation fund loan rate cut accordingly,Five years of loan interest rate fell from 4.7% to 4.5%。

  业内人士认为,此次贷款基准利率下调后,意味着购房成本将下降3.5%,个人住房贷款实际可享受9.5折优惠,这些均形成了对房价继续上涨的压力,由此又可能引发调控政策进一步升级。

The personage inside course of study thinks,The benchmark lending rate,Means that buys a house cost will drop 3.5%,Personal housing loan actual can enjoy discount of 9.5,These are formed on the pressure of the rising house prices continue to,From this and could cause further upgrade control policy。

  算账两次降息 贷款百万月供减300

With two cuts BaiWanYue loans for minus 300

  此次降息后,个人商业贷款5年以上基准利率从原来的6.8%降为6.55%,以贷款100万20年还清为例,首套房基准利率月供减少148元,加上上月降息,两次降息累计月供减少298元;8.5折贷款月供减少121元,两次降息累计减少243元;二套房贷月供减少180元,两次降息累计减少364元。

After the fed,Personal business loans above 5 years benchmark interest rate from 6.8% down to 6.55%,To pay off a loan of 1 million 20 years as an example,The first suites on the benchmark interest rate for a decrease of 148 yuan,Plus cut interest rates last month,Two cuts on a decrease of 298 yuan for the total;8.5 fold on loan for a decrease of 121 yuan,Two cuts reducing accumulative total is 243 yuan;Two sets of mortgage payments to reduce 180 yuan,Two cuts reducing accumulative total is 364 yuan。

  降息后购房成本对比(贷款100万20年等额本息)

After the purchase cost comparison to cut interest rates(The loan principal and interest waiting for the forehead 1 million 20 years)

  (单位:元)

(unit:yuan)

  加息时间 购房套数 利率 月还款 总利息

Purchase a cycle time raising interest rates on total interest rate payments

  调整前利息 首套房 6.80%(基准) 7633 832016

Before the adjustment first suite 6.80% interest(benchmark) 7633 832016

  5.78%(8.5折) 7038 689113

5.78%(8.5 fold) 7038 689113

  二套房 7.48%(1.1倍) 8056 933423

Two suites 7.48%(1.1 times) 8056 933423

  调整后利息 首套房 6.55%(基准) 7485 796448

After adjusting the first suite 6.55% interest(benchmark) 7485 796448

  5.57%(8.5折) 6917 660092

5.57%(8.5 fold) 6917 660092

  二套房 7.205%(1.1倍) 7876 890334

Two suites 7.205%(1.1 times) 7876 890334

  当前与降息前 首套房 0.25%(基准) 148 35568

Current and former first suite cut interest rates by 0.25%(benchmark) 148 35568

  差距

gap

  0.21%(8.5折) 121 29021

0.21%(8.5 fold) 121 29021

  二套房 0.275%(1.1倍) 180 43089

Two suites 0.275%(1.1 times) 180 43089

  影响购房成本再降7折利率成泡影

Affect the purchase cost drop 7 fold interest rates came to naught

  此前,央行已发文强调,个人住房贷款利率浮动区间的下限仍为基准利率的0.7倍。而此次浮动区间不做调整,意味着个人房贷最低能打7折。但业内人士却指出,对于购房者来说,虽然节省了部分购房成本,但降息并不完全是好事。

after,The central bank has emphasized postings,Personal housing loan interest rates for the lower limit of the range of floating still benchmark interest rate of 0.7。But the band does not change,Means that individual mortgages can make the minimum 7 fold。But industry insiders are pointed out,For the person that buy a house is,Although to save some of purchase cost,But the rate cut is not good。

  链家地产副总裁林倩指出,首先,贷款利率幅度调整大于存款利率调整,银行收益空间将进一步缩小。其次,本次下调贷款利率达到0.25个百分点,几乎等同于在当前6.8%的贷款利率基础上打了9.5折,在当前市场回暖,银行贷款额度快速释放的时期,银行继续打折的意愿将进一步降低,7折利率很难实现。

The vice President LinQian chain home real estate said,first,Loan interest rate adjustment range than deposit interest rate adjustment,Bank earnings space will further narrowing。second,The loan interest rate cut to 0.25%,Almost equal to 6.8% of the loans in the current interest rate on the basis for 9.5 fold,In the current market buoyancy,Bank loans fast release period,Banks continue to discount will further reduce,7 fold interest rate is hard to be achieved。

  由此可以推断,若未来1-2个月内,经济政策依旧保持降息不降准的趋势,北京等城市现存的房贷8.5折优惠有可能逐渐消失。而其余二三线城市,存在9折优惠的情况也将逐渐减少。因此,对于存在贷款优惠的城市,降息实际上是弊大于利。

It can be concluded that,If the future 1 to 2 months,Economic policy still keep upon the trend of must cut interest rates,Beijing and other cities of the existing mortgage discount of 8.5 May gradually disappear。And the remaining two three line city,The existing discount will gradually decrease。so,Existing preferential loans for the city,Rate cuts may actually do more harm than good。

  观点房价恐上涨 应有新政策对冲

Rising house prices could view should have new policy hedge

  中原地产市场研究总监张大伟认为,房地产调控已经事实松动,降息给房地产再次带来了喘息的良机。地方政府加快了预调微调的步伐,银行间流动性持续好转,可能预期的信贷政策微调幅度超过预期,楼市资金面将明显好转,房价再跌的可能性接近于零。

The real estate market research director ZhangDaWei think,Real estate regulation has the fact is loose,To cut interest rates again brought real estate breathing this opportunity。The local government to speed up the pace of fine-tuning the preset,Improving between bank liquidity,Probably expected credit policy fine-tuning range than expected,The financing side property market will be improved obviously,The possibility of house prices fall again close to zero。

  张大伟分析,目前各家银行贷款额度并不充足,出现低于8.5折乃至8折的可能性暂时不大,反而可能会因为存贷差的减小而减少折扣。但降息对购房者的心理影响将非常大,楼市将在三季度出现难以抑制的回暖。

ZhangDaWei analysis,Currently Banks loans is not enough,Appear less than 8.5 fold and even the possibility of 8 fold temporarily is not big,It may be because of the reduction of poor and reduce the discount。But the psychological impact of the person that buy a house to cut interest rates will be very big,Property market will appear in the third quarter to restrain of buoyancy。

  “央行的每次动作都不是为了提振房地产,但对房地产行业来讲确实有极大的利好作用”,中国房地产信息集团分析师薛建雄表示。

“The central bank's every move is not in order to jumpstart the real estate,But for real estate industry speaking really have great positive role”,China real estate information group analysts XueJianXiong said。

  事实上,自5、6月份以来,在国家不断重申继续实行严格的楼市调控声中,各地楼市成交“倔强”回暖。薛建雄认为,楼市底部其实在今年一季度就已经形成,进入二季度以来基本形成反弹,虽然目前房价环比出现涨幅,但同比去年仍呈现降幅。

In fact,Since may、Since June,In the national repeating the continue to implement strict in the housing market regulation in sound,Property clinch a deal around“stubborn”warmed。XueJianXiong think,Property market bottom in the year to the first quarter is actually has been formed,Entered the second quarter basic form since the rebound,Although the current price annulus comparing appear rise,But last year is still present year-on-year drop。

  “今年7、8月份将是楼市的观察期,如果此期间房价继续上涨,楼市调控将继续收紧或出台新的政策”,薛建雄进一步解释道:“未来楼市的政策空间还很大,更加严厉的限购措施或征收房地产税都有可能被执行。”文/记者 杨予诺 张媛

“This year July、August will be the property market observation period,If prices continue to rise during this time period,Property market regulation will continue to tighten or introduce new policy”,XueJianXiong further explained:“The future of the housing policy space is very big still,More severe 限购 measures or collection of real estate taxes are likely to be executed。”Wen/reporter YangYu ZhangYuan Enoch



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