2012年10月10日，中国旅游研究院在京发布2012年前三季度旅游经济运行分析和全年趋势预测报告。尽管2012年前三季度旅游发展环境存在下行压力，但旅游经济总体保持平稳较快发展势头。全年形势维持“谨慎乐观”判断，全年指标总体可以完成。国内、入境和出境三大市场的“两高一平”态势将成定局，贸易逆差进一步扩大。预计全年旅游接待总人数约31.3亿人次，旅游总收入2.6万亿元，同比分别增长12.8%和16.6%。

On October 10, 2012,China's tourism research institute released the first three quarters of 2012 in Beijing tourism economy operation analysis and annual trend forecast report.Although the third quarter 2012 years ago tourism development environment in downward pressure,But tourism economy overall keep stable and rapid development momentum.Maintain the situation"Cautious optimism"judgment,The overall index can be finished.domestic/Entry and exit three big market"Two GaoYiPing"Situation will be to stay,Trade deficit further expand.All the year round is expected to tourist reception total number about 3.13 billion passengers,Tourism revenue of RMB 2.6 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 12.8%, respectively, and 16.6%.

前三季度旅游经济运行延续上半年趋势，总量喜人 The first three quarters tourism economic operation in the first half of the continuation of the trend,Total gratifying

　　前三季度，国民旅游在旅游市场中的比重和支撑作用愈加明显，旅游经济得以延续上半年趋势，总量喜人，但入境市场堪忧。旅游发展环境总体处于景气临界水平但存在波动。三大市场中，国内旅游和出境旅游保持快速增长趋势，入境旅游规模总体变化不大。产业方面，国民旅游市场的快速增长为旅游产业平稳运行提供了有力支撑。前三季度旅游产业景气指数保持在“较为景气”水平，但略低于去年同期水平。三季度景区业景气水平最高，旅行社、旅游集团和饭店业景气指数依次略低于景区业。区域旅游方面，三季度西部地区旅游景气水平持续领先，东部地区和中部地区次之。区域旅游运行的另一特点是地方政府投资力度加大，各地发展旅游热情高涨。

The first three quarters,The national tourism in tourism market and the proportion of supporting function in the increasingly obvious,Tourism economy in the first half of the trend to continue,Total gratifying,But immigration is the market.The overall tourism development environment in boom critical level but exist fluctuation.Three big market,Domestic tourism and outbound tourism keep rapid growth trend,Inbound tourism scale overall change is not big.industry,The rapid growth of the national tourism market for tourism industry running smoothly to provide strong support.The first three quarters tourism industry boom index keep in"More prosperity"level,But slightly lower than the same period last year level.Third quarter scenic area industry boom the highest level,Travel agency/Tourism group and the hotel industry boom index in turn slightly lower than the industry.Regional tourism,Third quarter the western region tourism boom leading level,The eastern region and central regions take second place.Regional tourism running another characteristic is the local government investment increase,Around the development of tourism enthusiasm.

　　预计2012年前三季度，旅游接待总人数23.48亿人次，同比增长13.1%；旅游总收入1.92万亿元，同比增长15.3%；国内旅游人数22.5亿人次，同比增长13.7%；国内旅游收入1.7万亿元，同比增长18.6%。入境旅游人数9800万人次，同比下降1.8%；旅游外汇收入360.3亿美元，同比增长0.83%。出境旅游人数6100万人次，同比增长18.4%；出境旅游花费744.1亿美元，同比增长35.5%。旅游服务贸易逆差呈不断扩大趋势。

Expected the third quarter 2012 years ago,Tourism reception total number 2.348 billion people,Year-on-year growth of 13.1%;Tourism revenue of RMB 1.92 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 15.3%;The number of domestic tourism 2.25 billion people,Year-on-year growth of 13.7%;Domestic tourism income is 1.7 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 18.6%.The number of inbound tourism 98 million people,1.8% year-on-year drop;Tourist foreign exchange revenue of $36.03 billion,Year-on-year growth of 0.83%.Outbound tourism number 61 million people,Year-on-year growth of 18.4%;Outbound travel cost 74.41 billion dollars,Year-on-year growth of 35.5%.Tourism service trade deficit is constantly expand trend.

　对2012年全年旅游经济发展趋势判断：谨慎乐观 For 2012 years the tourism economic development tendency of judgment:Cautious optimism

　　旅游经济运行环境总体趋好。有利因素主要有全年GDP将实现7.8%的增长，为旅游经济提供良好的运行环境；国家出台《关于金融支持旅游业加快发展的若干意见》以及国庆中秋长假期间全国小型车辆免除高速公路通行费等。此外，旅游经济运行的先行指标中企业家信心和旅游投资指数仍然较高。不利因素主要有，国际环境仍然不容乐观。金融危机明显复苏稳固的迹象难在近期出现，2012年将总体处于低位运行。近期以来国际货币基金组织、联合国贸易和发展会议等下调了2012年世界经济增长率。而恐怖主义事件时有发生、欧盟征收碳关税、日本政府非法“购买”钓鱼岛等对我国入境旅游产生冲击。总体上，支撑旅游经济发展的基本面没有改变，我们对全年运行形势维持“谨慎乐观”。

Tourism economy operation environment is totally up-and-up.Favorable factors are annual GDP will achieve 7.8% growth,For tourism economy provide good running environment;The country has issued[About the financial support of the development of the tourism industry to speed up some opinions]National Day and the Mid-Autumn festival holiday the small vehicle exempt from highway tolls, etc.In addition,Tourism economy operation of the leading indicators entrepreneurs confidence and tourism investment index is still high.Adverse factors are,International environment is still not optimistic.Financial crisis obvious signs of recovery of solid in the near future to appear,2012 will the overall low operation.Since the recent international monetary fund/The United Nations conference on trade and development, such as cut 2012 world economic growth.And terrorist incidents/The European Union a carbon tariff/The Japanese government illegal"buy"Diaoyu islands on the entry tourism impact in our country.On the whole,Support of the tourism economic development has not changed the fundamentals,We maintain the running situation"Cautious optimism".

　全年发展任务主要指标总体可以完成 The development task main indexes overall can be finished

　　预计全年旅游接待总人数约31.3亿人次，旅游总收入2.6万亿元。国内旅游人数约30亿人次，同比增长13.6%；国内旅游收入2.3万亿元，同比增长19%。入境旅游人数1.32亿人次，同比下降2.2%；入境旅游外汇收入485亿美元，与去年基本持平。出境旅游人数8200万人次，同比增长16.7%；出境旅游花费约850亿美元，同比增长20%。旅游服务贸易逆差可能突破400亿美元。

All the year round is expected to tourist reception total number about 3.13 billion passengers,Tourism revenue of RMB 2.6 trillion yuan.The number of domestic tourism about 3 billion passengers,Year-on-year growth of 13.6%;Domestic tourism income is 2.3 trillion yuan,Year-on-year growth of 19%.The number of inbound tourism 132 million people,2.2% year-on-year drop;Inbound tourism foreign exchange revenue of $48.5 billion,Last year and flat.Outbound tourism number 82 million people,Year-on-year growth of 16.7%;Outbound tourism spends about 85 billion dollars,Year-on-year growth of 20%.Tourism service trade deficit could exceed $40 billion.