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消费贡献率十年来首超投资--亲稳网络舆情监测室
2012-10-23
对于这样的情况,国家统计局新闻发言人盛来运认为,经济结构调整取得了成绩,尽管经济增速在持续回落,但是中国经济增长从目前动力的角度来讲,内部的投资、消费需求形势不错,所以支持了目前的保持经济平稳较快增长。
For this situation,The national bureau of statistics news spokesman cheng to transport think,The readjustment of the economic structure is obtained result,Although economic growth continued to fall,But China's economic growth from the dynamic point of view,Internal investment/Consumer demand situation is good,So support the current maintain fast yet steady economic growth.
在上个世纪八十年代,由于中国居民收入增长很快,最终消费对于经济增长的贡献率一直高于投资。到了上个世纪九十年代,消费与投资相互此消彼长。到了2002年开始,投资对于经济增长的贡献率一直高于消费,最高的时候在2009年,投资对于经济增长的贡献率达到90%左右,消费对于经济的贡献率则只不到50%。
In the eighty s,Because of China's household income growth soon,Final consumption to economic growth has been higher than the contribution of investment.In the ninety s,Consumption and investment characterised by each other.In 2002 began,Investment's contribution to growth has been higher than consumption,The highest in 2009,Investment's contribution to growth around 90%,For the contribution rate of consumption economy is only less than 50%.
2012年前三季度出现消费对经济增长贡献率超过投资的情况,到底是长期情况,还是昙花一现,仍值得关注。中国社科院数量所研究员沈利生告诉记者,消费对于经济增长的贡献一般是比较稳定的,目前贡献率增加,与投资增速放慢有关。
2012 years ago in the third quarter consumption to economic growth than the contribution of investment,What is the long-term situation,Or a flash in the pan,Still worth attention.The Chinese academy of the number ShenLiSheng told reporters,The contribution of consumption to economic growth is usually relatively stable,At present contribution rate increase,And investment growth to slow down relevant.
“在国家收入分配政策没出台,居民收入没有大涨的情况下,可能消费的贡献率超过投资难以持续。目前最主要的是提高中低收入者的收入。”他说。
"In the national income distribution policy didn't come,Residents income no rise in cases,May the contribution of consumption more than investment unsustainable.At present the most main is to increase the income of the low-income earners."He said.
结构改善缘于投资放慢 Due to slow down investment structure was improved
根据统计局公布的数字,前三季度7.4%的增长中,最终消费贡献了4.2个百分点,资本形成总额(投资)贡献了3.9个百分点,而出口下拉GDP负增长0.4个百分点。
According to the bureau of statistics figures,The third quarter growth of 7.4%,Final consumption contributed to a 4.2%,Total capital formation(investment)A 3.9% contribution,And export drop-down GDP negative growth of 0.4%.
此前多年,投资对于经济的贡献率一直高于消费。比如2011年,当年投资对GDP增长的贡献率是54.2%,高于最终消费对GDP增长的51.6%贡献率,货物和服务净出口对GDP增长的贡献率是-5.8%。
After many years,The contribution of investment for economy has been higher than consumption.In 2011, for example,The investment to GDP growth is the contribution rate of 54.2%,Higher than the final consumption to GDP growth of 51.6% contribution,Goods and service net exports to GDP growth is the contribution rate of 5.8%.
过去十年,中国经济增长最主要是依赖投资,其次是消费,然后是出口,而过去投资和出口过快,导致贸易顺差过大,外汇占款过多,进而出现经济大起大落。
Over the past ten years,China's economic growth is mainly dependent on the investment,The second is consumption,And then export,And the past investment and exports too fast,The trade surplus leads to excessive,Funding of too much foreign exchange,And then there are always ups and downs economy.
这也是国家多个五年规划提出要实现经济可持续增长,更主要地将经济由投资和出口拉动,变为消费和投资、出口一起拉动,特别是由出口拉动的原因。不过,2012年的消费对于经济的贡献加大,到底是否持续,仍有待观察。沈利生认为,2009年国家出台家电下乡等政策,也拉动了消费快速增加。目前也有一些刺激消费的政策,但是这些都是短期作用,消费对经济的贡献高于投资,核心原因还是投资放慢了。
This is more than national five-year plan put forward to achieve sustainable economic growth,More mainly by economic investment and exports,Into consumption and investment/Export pulling together,Especially by the reason of exports.but,2012 years of consumption to increase economic contribution,Exactly whether to continue to,Remains to be seen.ShenLiSheng think,In 2009, the country has issued such as home appliances to the countryside policy,Also pull the rapid increases in consumption.At present there are some stimulate consumption policy,But these are short-term effect,Consumption to economic contribution than investment,The core reason or investment slowed.
收入分配政策将刺激消费 Income distribution policy will stimulate consumption
根据国务院10月17日的常务会议精神,四季度将制定收入分配制度改革总体方案。该方案的出台可能会有利于消费的快速增长。
According to the state council on October 17 of the standing conference spirit,The fourth quarter will develop reform of the income distribution system overall scheme.The scheme come on stage may help the rapid growth of consumption.
根据了解,今年消费对于经济的贡献率略为提升,一个背后的原因是,城乡居民收入增长高于国内生产总值(GDP)增长。
According to the understanding,This year for the contribution rate of consumption economy slightly ascending,A the reason behind is,The income of urban and rural residents is higher than GDP growth(GDP)growth.
沈利生指出,只有政府收入增速下降,居民收入高于GDP时,才可能出现消费快速增加的情况。“收入是消费背后的原因,目前高收入者收入很高,但是消费有限,而低收入所占的群体大,但是收入低,对于消费的需求很大。”
ShenLiSheng pointed out that,Only government income growth decline,Residents income when than GDP,Possible consumption of the rapid growth of its situation."Income is the reasons behind the consumption,At present high income earners,But consumption co., LTD.,,And the low-income group of big,But low income,There is a big demand for consumption."
今年前三季度经济增速为7.7%,而于前三季度城镇居民人均可支配收入扣除物价的实际增速为9.8%,农村居民人均现金收入扣除物价以后实际增速为12.3%。
The first three quarters of this year economic growth is 7.7%,And in the first three quarters urban per capita disposable income deducted the actual price growth of 9.8%,Rural per capita cash deduction price after the actual growth was 12.3%.
有意思的是,除了上个世纪八十年代,从1985年以来,城乡居民收入增速同时高于GDP的年份,只有1989年出现过,当年经济增速是4.1%,而城乡居民收入增速分别为10.5%、12.6%。
Interesting is,In addition to the eighty s,Since 1985,The income of urban and rural residents than GDP growth at the same time of the year,Only 1989 years appeared,The economic growth is 4.1%,And the income of urban and rural residents growth was 10.5%/12.6%.
而过去经济增速越是快年份,居民收入增速与GDP的差距则越大。也正因为此,北大经济学院教授蔡志洲认为,这的确需要好好反思GDP的增长质量问题,因为过去多年似乎越是经济慢的年份,居民所获得实际收益增长更快。
And the faster economic growth in the past year,Income growth and the gap between the GDP is.Also because of this,Peking University school of economics professor CaiZhiZhou think,It needs a good reflection on GDP growth quality problem,For the past years seems to be the more economic slow year,People get real income growth faster.
目前城乡居民消费的意愿尽管很大,但是实际仍相对较低。
At present urban and rural residents consumption will despite great,But the actual is still relatively low.
比如今年中秋国庆长假期间, 中国共接待游客4.25亿人次,比去年同期增长40.9%,按可比口径,同比增长23.3%。实现旅游收入2105亿元,比去年同期增长44.4%,按可比口径,同比增长26.3%。游客人均花费支出495元。
Such as the National Day holiday this year Mid-Autumn festival, China has received 425 million tourists,Than last year the corresponding period grows 40.9%,According to the comparable caliber,Year-on-year growth of 23.3%.Realize tourism income is 210.5 billion yuan,Than last year the corresponding period grows 44.4%,According to the comparable caliber,Year-on-year growth of 26.3%.Tourists per capita spending 495 yuan.
但是奇怪的是,据商务部监测,9月30日至10月7日,全国重点监测零售和餐饮企业销售额8006亿元,比2011年国庆黄金周期间增长15%左右。
But strangely,According to the ministry of commerce monitoring,September 30, to October 7,,National key monitoring retail and catering enterprise sales of 800.6 billion yuan,During the National Day golden week than in 2011 increased by about 15%.
餐饮收入增长所以远远低于游客增速,承德旅游职业学院旅游系副教授赵建宇认为,最关键的问题是,目前居民消费仍待深入。比如目前旅游仍属于比较浅的层次,一日游比较多,真正能过夜消费,以及实现购物消费的很少。
Catering income growth so far less than growth of tourists,Chengde tourism vocational college department of tourism, an associate professor at ZhaoJianYu think,The key problem is,The present household consumption remains to be further.Such as current tourism still belong to quite shallow levels,One-day tour more,Can really overnight consumption,As well as the realization shopping consumption less.
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