写字楼市场需求两极化，快速时尚品牌支撑优质商铺市场 Office buildings market demand polarization，Fast fashion brand support quality shops market

深圳，2012年7月12日 shenzhen，July 12, 2012

　　—2012年二季度，全球及国内经济增长放缓持续影响深圳甲级写字楼租赁市场，内资企业的租赁需求稍有放缓，外资金融业、高科技产业成为深圳高端甲级写字楼市场的主导力量；随着部分项目空置率上升，租金总体轻微下降；本季可售的写字楼项目增多，自用需求仍为主导；下半年租赁市场面临调整压力，但投资市场仍然保持乐观。优质商铺市场上，随着零售消费增长放缓，本季扩张需求有所减弱。空置率保持在低位；成熟商场在本季需求仍然旺盛，主要来自快速时尚品牌，租金有小幅增长；投资市场上分散业权投资活动活跃。未来短期，全市优质商铺租金将继续稳步上涨，但涨幅有所放缓。预计开发商推盘增多，宽松的货币政策也继续有利于投资市场。

--2012 years in the second quarter，Global and domestic economic growth slowed continue to affect the shenzhen grade a office rental market，The domestic enterprises demand slowing slightly lease，Foreign financial industry、High-tech industry has become a shenzhen high-end grade a office market leading power；As part of the project vacancy rate rise，Rents overall dropped slightly；This season the commercially available office projects increase，Demand for personal use is still dominant；The second half of rental market face adjustment pressure，But the investment market is still optimistic。High quality shops on the market，With retail spending growth slowdown，This season has weakened demand expansion。The vacancy rate to remain in a low place；Mature market demand remains strong in this season，Mainly from fast fashion brand，A slight increase in rent；Investment market scattered on the industry right investment activities active。The future short-term，The high quality rental shops will continue to rise steadily，But or slowed in。Developers are expected to push more dish，The loose monetary policy also continue to which investment market。

甲级写字楼市场 Grade a office market

　　外资金融业、高科技产业需求主导市场。2012年第二季度，全球及国内经济增长放缓持续影响深圳甲级写字楼租赁市场，内资企业的租赁需求稍有放缓，外资金融业、高科技产业成为深圳高端甲级写字楼市场的主导力量。

Foreign financial industry、High-tech industry needs dominate the market。The second quarter of 2012，Global and domestic economic growth slowed continue to affect the shenzhen grade a office rental market，The domestic enterprises demand slowing slightly lease，Foreign financial industry、High-tech industry has become a shenzhen high-end grade a office market leading power。

　　空置率压力上升，租金微降。本季位于福田中心区的分散业权项目大中华国际金融中心竣工，使二季度新增供应达4.4万平方米，上半年累计共12.2万平方米。二季度净吸纳量为6.3万平方米，上半年累计9.2万平方米。本季部分甲级写字楼(尤其是中心区)空置率稍微上升，而新项目出租率下降，使二季度全市空置率从一季度的14%下降1.0个百分点至13.0%，上半年整体上升0.6%。由于整体需求放缓加上空置压力增加，二季度甲级写字楼平均租金轻微下降1.8%，回落至每月每平米160元，上半年累计下降0.7%。单一业权写字楼租金基本保持稳定，但仍有部分业主为缓解空置率对租金作轻微下调。

The vacancy rate rising pressure，Rent WeiJiang。This season is located in the new central dispersive line of greater China international financial center right project completion，Make the new supply in the second quarter of 44000 square meters，In the first half of 122000 SQM accumulated。Second quarter net XiNaLiang for 63000 square meters，Total 92000 square meters in the first half。Part of the grade a office this season(Especially central)The vacancy rate rise slightly，And the new project ChuZuLv decline，Make the vacancy rate in the second quarter from 14% in the quarter of 1.0% to 13.0%，The overall rise 0.6% in the first half。As overall slowdown plus vacancy pressure increases，In the second quarter of an average grade a office rent a drop of 1.8%，Fall to 160 yuan per month per square meters，Total fell by 0.7% in the first half。A single industry rights office rentals basic remain stable，But there are still part of the owner to ease the rental vacancy rate for slight decline。

　　租赁市场现两极化，外资支撑甲级写字楼需求。本季租赁市场继续表现两极分化：一方面，受到欧债危机、出口需求减少、国内经济增速放慢等宏观经济因素的持续影响，企业普遍对2012年的利润增长看淡。因此，在考虑搬迁、续租时，企业为节省租金成本更倾向续租，或搬迁至乙级写字楼、高新科技园区以及工业用地写字楼。例如，精密连接器制造商安费诺中国从福田中心区的地铁大厦搬迁至科技园的康佳大厦，租下1500平方米面积。尤其对于华南区总部设置在香港或广州等地的企业，其在深圳的租赁计划更容易受经济形势影响。

Rental market now polarization，Foreign investment grade a office needs support。This season rental market continue to show polarization：On the one hand，By the debt crisis、Export demand decreases、Domestic economic growth to slow down, and other macroeconomic factors influence the continued，Enterprise common to the 2012 profit growth see light。so，In considering moving、Renew it when，Enterprise in order to save the cost of rent more likely to continue renting，Or move to serie b office buildings、The high and new science and technology park and industrial land office buildings。For example，Precision connector manufacturer amphenol China from the new central subway building moved to science konka building，They rented 1500 square meters area。Especially for the south China area set up headquarters in Hong Kong and guangzhou enterprises，The lease program in shenzhen more susceptible to influence the economic situation。

　　另一方面，承租能力较强的企业对新入市的甲级或超甲级写字楼的需求相对旺盛。相比于上两季度以内资公司租赁需求为主导，2012年二季度高端物业的租赁成交则以外资公司占多，且以续租并扩充为主。从行业来看，金融业及高科技产业带动租赁需求。例如，穆迪于嘉里建设广场先后续租并扩充了总共约4500平方米的面积；渣打银行从地王大厦搬迁至京基100，租下约1万平方米；松下电器从卓越时代广场搬迁至嘉里建设广场二期，租下约4500平方米。

On the other hand，The strong ability of the enterprise of the new entrants serie a or super grade a office needs relatively strong。When compared to the last two quarters to domestic demand as the leading company to lease，In the second quarter of 2012, the lease is high-end property clinch a deal with foreign companies account for more，And to renew it and expand to give priority to。From the industry，The financial industry and the high tech industry drive lease demand。For example，Moody's construction square in kerry has to continue renting and extend the total about 4500 square meters of area；Standard chartered bank from diwang building moved to Beijing, 100，They rented a about 10000 square meters；Matsushita electric excellence from times square moved to kerry properties phase 2 square，They rented a about 4500 square meters。

　　可售项目增多，自用需求仍为主导。资本市场上，二季度信贷环境有所放松，促进了分散业权项目的投资活动。同时，开发商为了缓解信贷及资金压力，在本季推出更多本来是单一业权的项目作销售。一手写字楼的售价也较一季度有所下调，吸引了更多自用需求。二手市场方面，受到经济因素影响，虽有少数业主为缓解资金压力进行降价促销，但大部分小业主仍然惜售。二季度甲级写字楼平均资本值为每平方米44600元，环比下降1.4%。

The increasing the commercially available，Demand for personal use is still dominant。Capital market，In the second quarter of the credit environment has been relaxed，Promote the right investment projects scattered industry activities。At the same time，Developers in order to ease the credit and capital to pressure，More in this season was the right of a single industry project sales。The price is also a office first quarter have come down，Attracting more demand for private use。Second-hand markets，By the economic factors，Though a few owner to ease pressure on money depreciate sales promotion，But most of the small business owners rised still。In the second quarter of grade a office average capital value for every square metre 44600 yuan，Annulus comparing fell 1.4%。

　　新增供应以自用为主，空置率保持稳定。下半年预计将有24万新增供应，其中约55%面积由投资方持有。2012年至2013年底，预计新增供应将有近63万平方米，并会逐步推出市场预租。庞大的供应量，加上短期没有较大增长的需求，将压抑短期租金的增长幅度。然而，在未来半年新增供应中，有55%的面积已经确定由发展商或投资方自用，所以预计2012年净吸纳量仍然较为乐观，空置率仅小幅上升。

The new supply mainly for personal use，Vacancy rates remain stable。The second half is expected to have 24 WanXinZeng supply，About 55% of the area is held by the investors。From 2012 to the end of 2013，The new supply is expected to will have nearly 630000 square meters，And will gradually introduced market the rent。Huge supply，No major addition to short-term increased demand，Will suppress short-term rent increase。however，In the next six months of the new supply，55% of the area has identified by development business or for investors，So expect 2012 net XiNaLiang still more optimistic，Vacancy rates only a modest rise。

　　租赁市场面临调整压力，投资市场保持乐观。展望下半年，仲量联行深圳商业地产部主管夏春毅表示，深圳写字楼租赁需求保持稳定，但经济增长放缓，企业的承租能力受限，需求可能继续流向租金低廉的大厦，进一步削弱甲级写字楼需求。货币政策的调整将有利国内经济环境，内资企业的租赁需求有望在年底增加。虽然预计下半年空置率将保持稳定，但是，在整体需求疲软的环境下，新增供应将削弱租金增长能力，下半年租金可能面临挑战，在甲级写字楼两级分化的趋势下，中心区一些中等档次但租金较高的甲级写字楼的压力将加大。

Rental market face adjustment pressure，Investment market to be optimistic。Looking to the second half of，Lang lasalle shenzhen commercial real estate department supervisor XiaChunYi said，Shenzhen office leasing needs remain stable，But economic growth，The limitations of the enterprise，Demand is likely to continue to flow to the low rent the building，Further weaken the grade a office demand。Monetary policy adjustment will be favorable economic environment domestic，The domestic enterprises demand is expected to increase by the end of the lease。Although expected vacancy rate will remain stable in the second half，but，In the overall weak demand environment，The new supply will weaken the rent growth ability，The second half of the rent may face challenges，In the grade a office under the trend of the polarized，Some middle class but central high grade a office rent of the pressure will be increased。

　　投资市场方面，预期下半年货币政策持续宽松，流动性增加对写字楼投资有一定的刺激作用。随着市场气氛改善，投资者将较上半年乐观。自用需求继续支撑写字楼买卖活动，整体资本值将保持稳定。

Investment markets，The second half expected for loose monetary policy，Liquidity increases to office building is of certain stimulation investment。As the market to improve the atmosphere，Investors will be more optimistic in the first half。Demand for business activities continue to support office buildings，Overall capital value will remain stable。

优质商铺市场 Quality retail market

　　零售消费增长放缓，扩张需求减弱。2012年1至5月，受宏观经济增速放缓、物价高企等因素影响，深圳社会消费品零售总额录得1541亿元，同比增长14.1%，增幅较2011年同期的17.1%有所下滑。受外围经济因素影响，加上国内租金成本、人力成本及信贷成本增加，零售商利润普遍受到影响，导致品牌扩张需求有所减弱。

Retail consumption growth，Expansion weakened demand。2012 1 to 5 months，By macro economic growth is slowing、Commodities prices and other factors，Shenzhen social total retail sales of consumer goods records 154.1 billion yuan，Year-on-year growth of 14.1%，Growth more than the same period in 2011 slipped 17.1%。Economic factors by peripheral，Plus domestic rent cost、The human cost and raise the cost of credit，Retailers profit common affected，Leading to brand expansion has weakened demand。

　　虽然整体零售租赁需求放缓，但从行业看，快速时尚品牌仍保持活跃，且新店均集中在较成熟的商场。例如，Zara在海岸城租下约1,400平方米的概念店，H&M在益田假日广场再扩充300平方米左右，Mango和Muji在福田区的Coco Park开新店等。也有新品牌落户深圳，例如苹果即将在益田假日广场开设华南区首家Apple Store，面积约为1,000平方米。

Although overall retail leasing slowing demand，But look from industry，Fast fashion brand remain active，And the new store are concentrated in a mature market。For example，Zara in coast city rented about 1,400 square meters of concept store，H&M in yitian holiday square be expanded in the 300 square metre，Mango and Muji in futian district, Coco Park open new store, etc。Also has new brand in shenzhen，Such as Apple is in yitian holiday square south China opened the first Apple Store，Area of about 1,000 square meters。

　　空置率持续低位。二季度的优质商铺市场有新增供应4万平方米，净吸纳量约29,000平方米。本季净吸纳量主要来自新增供应，加上其他商场空置率保持在低位，二季度优质商铺市场空置率下降0.4个百分点至3.2%，上半年整体空置率则较去年第四季度微升0.2个百分点。

Vacancy rates continue to low。In the second quarter of the new supply high quality shops market has 40000 square meters，Net XiNaLiang about 29,000 square meters。This season XiNaLiang mainly comes from the new supply of clean，Plus other market vacancy rate to remain in a low place，In the second quarter of high quality shops market vacancy rate decreased by 0.4% to 3.2%，The vacancy rate is a whole in the first half of last year in the fourth quarter, edged 0.2%。

　　本季度位于福田中心区的卓越InTown正式开业。项目负一层的餐饮及超市部分自去年11月开始试业。项目目前入驻率约75%，以配套餐饮以及中档服装吸引白领一族及年轻消费者群，现时主要租户有岁宝百货旗下的Smart国际精品超市、澳门适香餐厅、联想旗舰店，服装品牌方面包括Eva Ouxiu、Pinko、Psalter和Amass等。

This quarter new central InTown excellence in the formal opening。Project of a restaurant, and the negative part supermarket since last November began to try an inheritance。The project currently in rate of about 75%，Food and clothing to supporting middle attract white-collar gens and young consumer group，The main tenants have shirble department its Smart international high-quality goods supermarket、The optimum sweet restaurant、Lenovo flagship store，Clothing brand aspects including Eva Ouxiu、Pinko、Psalter and Amass, etc。

　　成熟商场主导需求，租金小幅增长。本季成熟商场的租赁需求较为强劲，并推动整体租金水平上涨，而整体租赁市场则较为平淡。二季度全市优质商铺首层平均有效租金录得每月每平方米939元(基于实际面积)，环比有1.6%的小幅上涨，但增幅水平略低于一季度的2.8%；上半年录得累计租金增幅为4.4%。

Mature market leading demand，Rent a small increase。This season the lease needs more mature market is strong，And to promote the overall rent levels rise，And the whole rental market is more in common。In the second quarter of the high quality, first floor shops average effective rent record every square metre 939 yuan a month(Based on the actual area of)，Annulus comparing with 1.6% of small rise，But slightly below the level of growth in the first quarter of 2.8%；Recorded in the first half of total rent a rise of 4.4%。

　　分散业权投资活跃，资本值轻微上扬。投资市场上，随着信贷环境放松，二季度的分散业权项目投资活动增多。同时，开发商为了缓解信贷及资金压力，推出了更多原本作为单一业权的项目作分拆出售。例如，天利集团将位于南山的天利名城一、二层的铺位分拆出售。由于市场气氛活跃，二季度优质商铺资本值环比增长1.7%，增幅略高于租金。

Scattered industry right investment active，Slightly higher capital value。Investment market，As credit environment to relax，In the second quarter of the dispersion of industry project investment activity right increase。At the same time，Developers in order to ease the credit and capital to pressure，Originally launched more as a single industry project of the right of splitting the sale。For example，The group will be located at nanshan day of the day LiMing city、2 units split sale。As the market active atmosphere，In the second quarter of high quality shops capital value increased by 1.7% month-on-month，Increase slightly higher than the rent。

　　整体需求放缓，租金升幅收窄。2012年下半年新增供应18万平方米，新增项目包括宝能太古城和星河龙岗CocoPark，两个项目均有较高预租率。预计年底全市总存量将达190万平方米。仲量联行广州及深圳商铺部副董事程怡认为，经济增长放缓、零售消费增幅减弱和租金成本人力成本等因素影响零售商利润，将制约下半年零售扩张需求。下半年空置率将有微升，加上需求下滑，平均租金增长空间将会受限。关内成熟商场对零售商仍有一定吸引力，同时，百货、超级市场和零售商继续向深圳关外拓展。2012年内地服装品牌销售不佳，部分品牌6月中已开始转季打折，反映零售商对销售量的忧虑。未来短期，全市优质商铺租金将继续稳步上升，但涨幅有所放缓。投资市场上，发展商因资金压力持续，可能推出更多可售项目，宽松的货币政策也继续有利于投资市场。

Overall slowdown in demand，The rent increase narrow。The second half of 2012 the new supply of 180000 square meters，New projects include the treasure to the milky CocoPark longgang and tai koo shing，Two items are a higher rate of the rent。By the end of the year is expected to total stock in the city will be 1.9 million square meters。Lang lasalle guangzhou and shenzhen deputy director ChengYi think shops，Slowing economic growth、Retail spending growth weakened and rent cost factors such as human cost impact retailers profits，The second half will be restricted retail expansion needs。The second half of the vacancy rate will have edged，Plus decline in demand，The average rent growth space will be limited。Mature market for retailers still inside shanhaiguan pass a certain appeal，At the same time，Department store、Supermarkets and retailers continue to expand the shenzhen customs。In 2012, the mainland clothing brand sales not beautiful，Part 6 months already start to brand season at a discount，Retailers to reflect the worries of sales。The future short-term，The high quality shops rent will continue to rise steadily，But or slowed in。Investment market，The developer of a financial pressure to continue，May introduce more commercially available project，The loose monetary policy also continue to which investment market。

市场前景 Market prospect

　　仲量联行大珠江三角洲研究部主管陈锦平总结，“展望2012年，国内外经济环境不明朗因素持续，整体需求下滑。大部分企业对租金预算持续收紧，制约部分写字楼搬迁需求，再加上发展商资金链仍然十分吃紧，预计他们会进一步让利，压缩写字楼租金增长空间。整体而言，我们预期商业地产市场倾向于平稳发展，并很大程度上取决于政府扩大内需政策的力度。总部经济的发展有望加快带动产业链升级，并将成为未来深圳经济增长的重要支柱。

Lang lasalle big pearl river delta ChenJinPing summarizes research department supervisor，“Looking ahead to 2012，Domestic and international economic environment for uncertainties，Overall decline in demand。Most of the enterprise to rent for budget tightening，Restricted part move office demand，Plus the developer capital chain is very tight，They are expected to further concessions，Compression office rent growth space。overall，We expect the commercial real estate market tend to steady development，And to a great extent, depends on the government to expand domestic demand to the intensity of the policy。The development of headquarters economy is expected to speed up the industrial chain drive upgrade，And will become the future shenzhen the important pillar of economic growth。