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楼市成交回暖或延续--亲稳网络舆情监控室
2012-07-14
本报实习记者 张敏
This practice reporter zhangmin.i am
央行一个月之内两次降息进一步降低了购房者的购房成本。但业内人士预计,鉴于此次降息的非对称性,如果未来1-2个月内存款准备金率不下调,部分城市现有的首套房贷利率8.5折优惠可能逐渐消失。分析人士表示,连续两次降息将强化对楼市回暖的判断,有助于继续推动刚需群体入市。在继续严格执行差别化住房信贷政策的同时,有必要通过加快个人住房信息系统的建设和联网等措施,继续抑制投机投资性购房。
Within a month the central bank cut interest rates further reduce two times the purchase cost of the person that buy a house。But insiders expect,In view of the asymmetry of the cut interest rates,If the future 1-2 months deposit reserve rate does not fall,Parts of the city the first set of existing mortgage rates 8.5 discount may gradually disappear。Analysts said,Continuous two cuts will strengthen the property market warms up in the judgment,Help to continue to promote just need to group market。Continue to strictly carry out the housing credit policies and differentiation,It is necessary to speed up the construction of personal housing information system and networking and other measures,Continue to restrain speculative investment the house。
购房成本再度降低 Purchase cost reduced again
以刚性需求为主的购房群体成为本次降息的直接受益者。据链家地产市场研究部测算,按照100万元的贷款总额、20年的还款期限计算,首套房贷利率如果执行基准利率,则降息前的月供款为7633元,降息后为7485元,减少了148元,总利息减少35568元。如果算上上一次降息的影响,两次降息将使购房者的月供款累计减少298元。
Rigid demands to purchase of the people become the direct beneficiaries of lower interest rates。According to the real estate market research department estimates chain home,According to 1 million yuan of total loans、20 years of reimbursement term calculation,The first set of mortgage rates if executive benchmark rates,Cut interest rates for the month before the money for 7633 yuan,After the cut interest rates for 7485 yuan,Reduce the 148 yuan,Total 35568 yuan less interest。If you include the influence of the last cut interest rates,Two cuts will make the person that buy a house for the month of accumulative total reduce 298 yuan。
如果首套房贷利率执行基准利率的8.5折,则两次降息将使月供款累计减少243元。如果是购买二套房,房贷利率执行基准利率的1.1倍,则两次降息将使购房者的月供款累计减少364元。
If the first set of mortgage rates perform the benchmark interest rate of 8.5,The two times will cut interest rates on contributions to reduce cumulative 243 yuan。If is the purchase of two suites,Mortgage rates perform the benchmark interest rate 1.1 times,The two cuts will make the person that buy a house for the month of accumulative total reduce 364 yuan。
链家地产市场研究部分析师陈雪认为,对于广大刚性和改善型需求的购房者而言,降息的累加利好正在逐渐加深,购房成本持续降低。
House property market research analysts chain ChenXue think,For the rigid and improve the type of the person that buy a house in demand,The rate cut is gradually accumulate the positive,Purchase sustained cost reduction。
在此次降息的同时,央行也强调,个人住房贷款利率浮动区间不作调整,金融机构要继续严格执行差别化的各项住房信贷政策,继续抑制投机投资性购房。
In the 50 at the same time,The central bank also stressed,Personal housing loan interest rate floating interval is not made adjust,Financial institutions should continue to strictly carry out the policy of differentiation housing credit,Continue to restrain speculative investment the house。
不少业内人士认为,对于市场化程度较高的房贷利率来说,鉴于此次降息的非对称性,贷款利率的下降幅度大于存款利率,可能影响银行对房贷政策的把握。陈雪表示,目前房地产市场回暖,银行贷款额度快速释放,银行保持利率优惠的意愿将进一步降低。如果未来1-2个月内存款准备金率不下调,北京等城市现有的首套房贷利率8.5折优惠可能逐渐消失,在一定程度上消解此次降息降低购房成本的效果。
Many insiders,For the degree of marketization higher mortgage rates for example,In view of the asymmetry of the cut interest rates,Loan interest rates down was more deposit rates,May affect the bank mortgage policy to grasp。ChenXue said,Real estate market at present thaw,The rapid release of bank loans,Banks keep interest rates will further reduce the will of the discount。If the future 1-2 months deposit reserve rate does not fall,Beijing and other cities of the existing first set of mortgage rates 8.5 discount may gradually disappear,To a certain extent the purchase cost reduce digestion rate cut the effect。
强化楼市回暖判断 Strengthen property market warms up judgment
与切实减少的购房支出相比,两次降息对楼市预期的影响更加深远。亚太城市房地产研究院院长谢逸枫对中国证券报记者表示,连续两次降息可能加深业界对楼市已“筑底回暖”的认识。出于“抄底”的心态,购房者入市的积极性可能进一步提高,从而继续对楼市的成交量形成支撑。
And to reduce the purchase of the spending compared,Two cuts expected to the influence of the property market more far-reaching。Cities in Asia Pacific academy, real estate XieYiFeng on China's stock certificate report reporters,Continuous two cuts may deepen about the housing industry already“Warmed up the”Understanding of。from“Copy the”mentality,The person that buy a house to the entries enthusiasm may further improve,Thus, the volume of the housing market continues to support form。
北京中原地产市场研究总监张大伟认为,近期房地产市场成交量的回升使开发商的资金面进一步缓解,再加上降息的效应,房地产企业的“冬天”已经过去。
Beijing centaline property market research director ZhangDaWei think,The recent real estate market volume of the developers back further easing the financing side,Plus the effect to cut interest rates,Real estate enterprises“winter”Has in the past。
数据显示,从今年5月以来,多个重要城市的房地产成交量明显回升。不少机构分析认为,虽然“限购令”并未松动,但在两次降息的推动下,市场成交量将继续保持回升态势,经过7、8月份的传统淡季后,可能在9月和10月达到全年的最高点。
Data shows,From since may of this year,More important, the volume of the city real estate rebounded somewhat。Many institutions that analysis,although“限购 make”Did not loose,But in the push of two cuts,Market turnover will continue to keep back up trend,After 7、In August after the traditional slack,May in September and October reach the highest point of the year。
张大伟表示,成交量对价格的支撑作用逐渐明显。此前部分房地产项目已减少或取消购房优惠,部分城市的住房成交均价出现回升。
ZhangDaWei said,Trading volume on the price of supporting function of the increasingly obvious。Before the real estate project has been part of reduce or eliminate preferential buy,Parts of the city's housing the price appears to bounce back。
值得注意的是,在两次降息释放的楼市回暖信号中,部分投资投机需求也在伺机入市。业内人士警示,为保证调控效果,应密切关注投资投机需求的动向,谨防其借机入市并推动房价过快上涨。同时,个人住房信息系统的建设和联网也需加快,以期尽快筑起抑制投机的“防火墙”。
Note the,Two cuts in the release of the property market warms up in the signal,Some investment speculation demand is also biding market。Industry insiders warning,To ensure the regulation effects,Should pay close attention to the tendency of speculative investment demand,Beware of the market and promote draws housing prices rise rapidly。At the same time,Personal housing information system construction and networking also need to speed up,As soon as possible so as to build up the suppression speculation“firewall”。
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